Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stability criteria for the contextual emergence of macrostates in neural networks

More than thirty years ago, Amari and colleagues proposed a statistical framework for identifying structurally stable macrostates of neural networks from observations of their microstates. We compare their stochastic stability criterion with a deterministic stability criterion based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems, recently proposed for the scheme of contextual emergence and applied to particular inter-level relations in neuroscience. Stochastic and deterministic stability criteria for macrostates rely on macro-level contexts, which make them sensitive to differences between different macro-levels.

The relationship between absolute and proportion scores of serial order memory: simulation predictions and empirical data

The capability of a feature model of immediate memory (Nairne, 1990; Neath, 2000) to predict and account for a relationship between absolute and proportion scoring of immediate serial recall when memory load is varied (the list-length effect, LLE) is examined. The model correctly predicts the novel finding of an LLE in immediate serial order memory similar to that observed with free recall and previously assumed to be attributable to the long-term memory component of that procedure (Glanzer, 1972). The usefulness of formal models as predictive tools and the continuity between short-term serial order and longer term item memory are considered.

Optimising the feedback loop of a millimetre-wave absolute photoacoustic power meter using H-infinity control synthesis

An H-infinity control strategy has been developed for the design of controllers used in feedback controlled electrical substitution measurements (FCESM). The methodology has the potential to provide substantial improvements in both response time and resolution of a millimetre-wave absolute photoacoustic power meter.

Global asymptotic stability in a class of Putnam-type equations

In this paper, we initiate the study of a class of Putnam-type equation of the form x(n-1) = A(1)x(n) + A(2)x(n-1) + A(3)x(n-2)x(n-3) + A(4)/B(1)x(n)x(n-1) + B(2)x(n-2) + B(3)x(n-3) + B-4 n = 0, 1, 2,..., where A(1), A(2), A(3), A(4), B-1, B-2, B-3, B-4 are positive constants with A(1) + A(2) + A(3) + A(4) = B-1 + B-2 + B-3 + B-4, x(-3), x(-2), x(-1), x(0) are positive numbers. A sufficient condition is given for the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point c = 1 of such equations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global asymptotic stability in a rational recursive sequence

In this paper, we study the global stability of the difference equation x(n) = a + bx(n-1) + cx(n-1)(2)/d - x(n-2), n = 1,2,....., where a, b greater than or equal to 0 and c, d > 0. We show that one nonnegative equilibrium point of the equation is a global attractor with a basin that is determined by the parameters, and every positive Solution of the equation in the basin exponentially converges to the attractor. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of genome defense on mobile elements in Microbotryum

Repeat induced point mutation (RIP), a mechanism causing hypermutation of repetitive DNA sequences in fungi, has been described as a ‘genome defense’ which functions to inactivate mobile elements and inhibit their deleterious effects on genome stability. Here we address the interactions between RIP and transposable elements in the Microbotryum violaceum species complex. Ten strains of M. violaceum, most of which belong to different species of the fungus, were all found to contain intragenomic populations of copia-like retrotransposons. Intragenomic DNA sequence variation among the copia-like elements was analyzed for evidence of RIP. Among species with RIP, there was no significant correlation between the frequency of RIP-induced mutations and inferred transposition rate based on diversity. Two strains of M. violaceum, from two different plant species but belonging to the same fungal lineage, contained copia-like elements with very low diversity, as would result from a high transposition rate, and these were also unique in showing no evidence of the hypermutation patterns indicative of the RIP genome defense. In this species, evidence of RIP was also absent from a Class II helitron-like transposable element. However, unexpectedly the absolute repetitive element load was lower than in other strains.

Comparison of algal and fish sources on the oxidative stability of poultry meat and its enrichment with omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids

Human consumption of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) is below recommendations, and enriching chicken meat (by incorporating LC n-3 PUFA into broiler diets) is a viable means of increasing consumption. Fish oil is the most common LC n-3 PUFA supplement used but is unsustainable and reduces the oxidative stability of the meat. The objective of this experiment was to compare fresh fish oil (FFO) with fish oil encapsulated (EFO) in a gelatin matrix (to maintain its oxidative stability) and algal biomass at a low (LAG, 11), medium (MAG, 22), or high (HAG, 33 g/kg of diet) level of inclusion. The C22:6n-3 contents of the FFO, EFO, and MAG diets were equal. A control (CON) diet using blended vegetable oil was also made. As-hatched 1-d-old Ross 308 broilers (144) were reared (21 d) on a common starter diet then allocated to treatment pens (4 pens per treatment, 6 birds per pen) and fed treatment diets for 21 d before being slaughtered. Breast and leg meat was analyzed (per pen) for fatty acids, and cooked samples (2 pens per treatment) were analyzed for volatile aldehydes. Concentrations (mg/100 g of meat) of C20:5n-3, C22:5n-3, and C22:6n-3 were (respectively) CON: 4, 15, 24; FFO: 31, 46, 129; EFO: 18, 27, 122; LAG: 9, 19, 111; MAG: 6, 16, 147; and HAG: 9, 14, 187 (SEM: 2.4, 3.6, 13.1) in breast meat and CON: 4, 12, 9; FFO: 58, 56, 132; EFO: 63, 49, 153; LAG: 13, 14, 101; MAG: 11, 15, 102; HAG: 37, 37, 203 (SEM: 7.8, 6.7, 14.4) in leg meat. Cooked EFO and HAG leg meat was more oxidized (5.2 mg of hexanal/kg of meat) than the other meats (mean 2.2 mg/kg, SEM 0.63). It is concluded that algal biomass is as effective as fish oil at enriching broiler diets with C22:6 LC n-3 PUFA, and at equal C22:6n-3 contents, there is no significant difference between these 2 supplements on the oxidative stability of the meat that is produced.

Gas-phase kinetics of chlorosilylene reactions II. ClSiH + C2H4: absolute rate measurements and quantum chemical and RRKM calculations for the prototype pi addition reaction

Time-resolved studies of chlorosilylene, ClSiH, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 1-chloro-1-silacyclopent-3-ene, are carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with ethene, C2H4, in the gas-phase. The reaction is studied over the pressure range 0.13-13.3 kPa (with added SF6) at five temperatures in the range 296-562 K. The second order rate constants, obtained by extrapolation to the high pressure limits at each temperature, fitted the Arrhenius equation: log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1))=(-10.55 +/- 0.10) + (3.86 +/- 0.70) kJ mol(-1)/RT ln10. The Arrhenius parameters correspond to a loose transition state and the rate constant at room temperature is 43% of that for SiH2 + C2H4, showing that the deactivating effect of Cl-for-H substitution in the silylene is not large. Quantum chemical calculations of the potential energy surface for this reaction at the G3MP2//B3LYP level show that, as well as 1-chlorosilirane, ethylchlorosilylene is a viable product. The calculations reveal how the added effect of the Cl atom on the divalent state stabilisation of ClSiH influences the course of this reaction. RRKM calculations of the reaction pressure dependence suggest that ethylchlorosilylene should be the main product. The results are compared and contrasted with those of SiH2 and SiCl2 with C2H4.

Stability of solutions of linear difference equations with periodic coefficients

This paper represents the last technical contribution of Professor Patrick Parks before his untimely death in February 1995. The remaining authors of the paper, which was subsequently completed, wish to dedicate the article to Patrick. A frequency criterion for the stability of solutions of linear difference equations with periodic coefficients is established. The stability criterion is based on a consideration of the behaviour of a frequency hodograph with respect to the origin of coordinates in the complex plane. The formulation of this criterion does not depend on the order of the difference equation.

Gas-phase kinetics of chlorosilylene reactions. I. ClSiH + Me3SiH: absolute rate measurements and theoretical calculations for prototype Si−H insertion reactions

Time-resolved studies of chlorosilylene, CISiH, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 1-chloro-1-silacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with trimethylsilane, Me3SiH, in the gas phase. The reaction was studied at total pressures up to 100 torr (with and without added SF6) over the temperature range 297-407 K. The rate constants were found to be pressure independent and gave the following Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-13.97 +/- 0.25) + (12.57 +/- 1.64) kJ mol(-1)/RT In 10. The Arrhenius parameters are consistent with a mechanism involving an intermediate complex, whose rearrangement is the rate-determining step. Quantum chemical calculations of the potential energy surface for this reaction and also the reactions of CISiH with SiH4 and the other methylsilanes support this conclusion. Comparisons of both experiment and theory with the analogous Si-H insertion processes of SiH2 and SiMe2 show that the main factor causing the lower reactivity of ClSiH is the secondary energy barrier. The calculations also show the existence of a novel intramolecular H-atom exchange process in the complex of ClSiH with MeSiH3.