A new method for the determination of Holocene palaeohydrology

This paper describes a new method for the assessment of palaeohydrology through the Holocene. A palaeoclimate model was linked with a hydrological model, using a weather generator to correct bias in the rainfall estimates, to simulate the changes in the flood frequency and the groundwater response through the late Pleistocene and Holocene for the Wadi Faynan in southern Jordan, a site considered internationally important due to its rich archaeological heritage spanning the Pleistocene and Holocene. This is the first study to describe the hydrological functioning of the Wadi Faynan, a meso-scale (241 km2) semi-arid catchment, setting this description within the framework of contemporary archaeological investigations. Historic meteorological records were collated and supplemented with new hydrological and water quality data. The modelled outcomes indicate that environmental changes, such as deforestation, had a major impact on the local water cycle and this amplified the effect of the prevailing climate on the flow regime. The results also show that increased rainfall alone does not necessarily imply better conditions for farming and highlight the importance of groundwater. The discussion focuses on the utility of the method and the importance of the local hydrology to the sustained settlement of the Wadi Faynan through pre-history and history.

Neurotrophic gene polymorphisms and response to psychological therapy

Therapygenetics, the study of genetic determinants of response to psychological therapies, is in its infancy. Here, we investigate whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms in nerve growth factor (NGF) (rs6330) and brain-derived neutrotrophic factor (BDNF) (rs6265) genes predict the response to cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT). Neurotrophic genes represent plausible candidate genes: they are implicated in synaptic plasticity, response to stress, and are widely expressed in brain areas involved in mood and cognition. Allelic variation at both loci has shown associations with anxiety-related phenotypes. A sample of 374 anxiety-disordered children with white European ancestry was recruited from clinics in Reading, UK, and in Sydney, Australia. Participants received manualised CBT treatment and DNA was collected from buccal cells using cheek swabs. Treatment response was assessed at post-treatment and follow-up time points. We report first evidence that children with one or more copies of the T allele of NGF rs6330 were significantly more likely to be free of their primary anxiety diagnosis at follow-up (OR=0.60 (0.42–0.85), P=0.005). These effects remained even when other clinically relevant covariates were accounted for (OR=0.62 (0.41–0.92), P=0.019). No significant associations were observed between BDNF rs6265 and response to psychological therapy. These findings demonstrate that knowledge of genetic markers has the potential to inform clinical treatment decisions for psychotherapeutic interventions.

Effect of processed and red meat on endogenous nitrosation and DNA damage

Haem in red meat (RM) stimulates the endogenous production of mutagenic nitroso compounds (NOC). Processed (nitrite-preserved red) meat additionally contains high concentrations of preformed NOC. In two studies, of a fresh RM versus a vegetarian (VEG) diet (six males and six females) and of a nitrite-preserved red meat (PM) versus a VEG diet (5 males and 11 females), we investigated whether processing of meat might increase colorectal cancer risk by stimulating nitrosation and DNA damage. Meat diets contained 420 g (males) or 366 g (females) meat/per day. Faecal homogenates from day 10 onwards were analysed for haem and NOC and asso- ciated supernatants for genotoxicity. Means are adjusted for differ- ences in male to female ratios between studies. Faecal NOC concentrations on VEG diets were low (2.6 and 3.5 mmol/g) but significantly higher on meat diets (PM 175 ± 19 nmol/g versus RM 185 ± 22 nmol/g; P 5 0.75). The RM diet resulted in a larger pro- portion of nitrosyl iron (RM 78% versus PM 54%; P < 0.0001) and less nitrosothiols (RM 12% versus PM 19%; P < 0.01) and other NOC (RM 10% versus PM 27%; P < 0.0001). There was no statis- tically significant difference in DNA breaks induced by faecal water (FW) following PM and RM diets (P 5 0.80). However, PM re- sulted in higher levels of oxidized pyrimidines (P < 0.05). Surpris- ingly, VEG diets resulted in significantly more FW-induced DNA strand breaks than the meat diets (P < 0.05), which needs to be clarified in further studies. Meats cured with nitrite have the same effect as fresh RM on endogenous nitrosation but show increased FW-induced oxidative DNA damage.

Antigenotoxicity of probiotics and prebiotics on faecal water-induced DNA damage in human colon adenocarcinoma cells

Six strains of lactic acid producing bacteria (LAB) were incubated (1 x 10(8)cfu/ml) with genotoxic faecal water from a human subject. HT29 human adenocarcinoma cells were then challenged with the resultant samples and DNA damage measured using the single cell gel electrophoresis (comet) assay. The LAB strains investigated were Bifidobacterium sp. 420, Bifidobacterium Bb12, Lactobacillus plantarum, Streptococcus thermophilus, Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Enterococcus faecium. DNA damage was significantly decreased by all bacteria used with the exception of Strep. thermophilus. Bif. Bb12 and Lact. plantarum showed the greatest protective effect against DNA damage. Incubation of faecal water with different concentrations of Bif. Bb12 and Lact. plantarum revealed that the decrease in genotoxicity was related to cell density. Non-viable (heat treated) probiotic cells had no effect on faecal water genotoxicity. In a second study, HT29 cells were cultured in the presence of supernatants of incubations of probiotics with various carbohydrates including known prebiotics; the HT29 cells were then exposed to faecal water. Overall, incubations involving Lact. plantarum with the fructooligosaccharide (FOS)-based prebiotics Inulin, Raftiline, Raftilose and Actilight were the most effective in increasing the cellular resistance to faecal water genotoxicity, whereas fermentations with Elixor (a galactooligosaccharide) and Fibersol (a maltodextrin) were less effective. Substantial reductions in faecal water-induced DNA damage were also seen with supernatants from incubation of prebiotics with Bif. Bb12. The supernatant of fermentations involving Ent. faecium and Bif. sp. 420 generally had less potent effects on genotoxicity although some reductions with Raftiline and Elixor fermentations were apparent.

Random Prism: a noise-tolerant alternative to Random Forests

Ensemble learning can be used to increase the overall classification accuracy of a classifier by generating multiple base classifiers and combining their classification results. A frequently used family of base classifiers for ensemble learning are decision trees. However, alternative approaches can potentially be used, such as the Prism family of algorithms that also induces classification rules. Compared with decision trees, Prism algorithms generate modular classification rules that cannot necessarily be represented in the form of a decision tree. Prism algorithms produce a similar classification accuracy compared with decision trees. However, in some cases, for example, if there is noise in the training and test data, Prism algorithms can outperform decision trees by achieving a higher classification accuracy. However, Prism still tends to overfit on noisy data; hence, ensemble learners have been adopted in this work to reduce the overfitting. This paper describes the development of an ensemble learner using a member of the Prism family as the base classifier to reduce the overfitting of Prism algorithms on noisy datasets. The developed ensemble classifier is compared with a stand-alone Prism classifier in terms of classification accuracy and resistance to noise.

Linguistic evidence supports date for Homeric epics

The Homeric epics are among the greatest masterpieces of literature, but when they were produced is not known with certainty. Here we apply evolutionary-linguistic phylogenetic statistical methods to differences in Homeric, Modern Greek and ancient Hittite vocabulary items to estimate a date of approximately 710–760 BCE for these great works. Our analysis compared a common set of vocabulary items among the three pairs of languages, recording for each item whether the words in the two languages were cognate – derived from a shared ancestral word – or not. We then used a likelihood-based Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure to estimate the most probable times in years separating these languages given the percentage of words they shared, combined with knowledge of the rates at which different words change. Our date for the epics is in close agreement with historians' and classicists' beliefs derived from historical and archaeological sources.

The distribution of interplanetary dust between 0.96 and 1.04 au as inferred from impacts on the STEREO spacecraft observed by the heliospheric imagers

The distribution of dust in the ecliptic plane between 0.96 and 1.04 au has been inferred from impacts on the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft through observation of secondary particle trails and unexpected off-points in the heliospheric imager (HI) cameras. This study made use of analysis carried out by members of a distributed web-based citizen science project Solar Stormwatch. A comparison between observations of the brightest particle trails and a survey of fainter trails shows consistent distributions. While there is no obvious correlation between this distribution and the occurrence of individual meteor streams at Earth, there are some broad longitudinal features in these distributions that are also observed in sources of the sporadic meteor population. The different position of the HI instrument on the two STEREO spacecraft leads to each sampling different populations of dust particles. The asymmetry in the number of trails seen by each spacecraft and the fact that there are many more unexpected off-points in the HI-B than in HI-A indicates that the majority of impacts are coming from the apex direction. For impacts causing off-points in the HI-B camera, these dust particles are estimated to have masses in excess of 10−17 kg with radii exceeding 0.1 μm. For off-points observed in the HI-A images, which can only have been caused by particles travelling from the anti-apex direction, the distribution is consistent with that of secondary ‘storm’ trails observed by HI-B, providing evidence that these trails also result from impacts with primary particles from an anti-apex source. Investigating the mass distribution for the off-points of both HI-A and HI-B, it is apparent that the differential mass index of particles from the apex direction (causing off-points in HI-B) is consistently above 2. This indicates that the majority of the mass is within the smaller particles of this population. In contrast, the differential mass index of particles from the anti-apex direction (causing off-points in HI-A) is consistently below 2, indicating that the majority of the mass is to be found in larger particles of this distribution.

Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 2: A new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field

We present a new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, B) for 1846–2012 with a full analysis of errors, based on the homogeneously constructed IDV(1d)composite of geomagnetic activity presented in Part 1 (Lockwood et al., 2013a). Analysis of the dependence of the commonly used geomagnetic indices on solar wind parameters is presented which helps explain why annual means of interdiurnal range data, such as the new composite, depend only on the IMF with only a very weak influence of the solar wind flow speed. The best results are obtained using a polynomial (rather than a linear) fit of the form B = χ · (IDV(1d) − β)α with best-fit coefficients χ = 3.469, β = 1.393 nT, and α = 0.420. The results are contrasted with the reconstruction of the IMF since 1835 by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010).

Concessionary nature of public-private partnerships in Russia and Kazakhstan: a critical review

This article provides a critical overview of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Russia and Kazakhstan and examines the rationale underpinning such partnerships. The analysis discusses the reasons why governments in Russia and Kazakhstan focus principally on concessions as a form of PPP and goes on to provide a critical assessment of the key approaches and situational factors relating to concessions in these two countries. The article finds that external globalization impulses pressed Russia and Kazakhstan to align their policies and institutions with western orthodoxy and perceived international best practice. An ever-increasing emphasis on use of PPPs has been a key feature of this alignment. However, the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have increasingly resorted to concessions as progress with the development and implementation of Western style PPP models has stalled. This article concludes that the governments of Russia and Kazakhstan have demonstrated an overly optimistic approach to PPP and as a result may have substantially understated their overall concessional risks and costs. Features of Russian and Kazakhstani PPP arrangements such as ambiguity in output specification and extensive reliance on government subsidies, combined with lack of expertise of private partners, may significantly decrease concession benefits.

Simulated last glacial maximum D14Catm and the deep glacial ocean carbon reservoir

∆14Catm has been estimated as 420 ± 80‰ (IntCal09) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to preindustrial times (0‰), but mechanisms explaining this difference are not yet resolved. ∆14Catm is a function of both cosmogenic production in the high atmosphere and of carbon cycling and partitioning in the Earth system. 10Be-based reconstructions show a contribution of the cosmogenic production term of only 200 ± 200‰ in the LGM. The remaining 220‰ have thus to be explained by changes in the carbon cycle. Recently, Bouttes et al. (2010, 2011) proposed to explain most of the difference in pCO2atm and δ13C between glacial and interglacial times as a result of brine-induced ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean. This mechanism involves the formation of very saline water masses that contribute to high carbon storage in the deep ocean. During glacial times, the sinking of brines is enhanced and more carbon is stored in the deep ocean, lowering pCO2atm. Moreover, the sinking of brines induces increased stratification in the Southern Ocean, which keeps the deep ocean well isolated from the surface. Such an isolated ocean reservoir would be characterized by a low ∆14C signature. Evidence of such 14C-depleted deep waters during the LGM has recently been found in the Southern Ocean (Skinner et al. 2010). The degassing of this carbon with low ∆14C would then reduce ∆14Catm throughout the deglaciation. We have further developed the CLIMBER-2 model to include a cosmogenic production of 14C as well as an interactive atmospheric 14C reservoir. We investigate the role of both the sinking of brine and cosmogenic production, alongside iron fertilization mechanisms, to explain changes in ∆14Catm during the last deglaciation. In our simulations, not only is the sinking of brine mechanism consistent with past ∆14C data, but it also explains most of the differences in pCO2atm and ∆14Catm between the LGM and preindustrial times. Finally, this study represents the first time to our knowledge that a model experiment explains glacial-interglacial differences in pCO2atm, δ13C, and ∆14C together with a coherent LGM climate.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties and potential probiotic activity of Lactobacillus plantarum C4 in batch culture systems

Lactobacillus plantarum C4 has been tested in in vitro pH-controlled anaerobic faecal batch cultures as compared to Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG to determine changes caused to the composition of faecal bacteria. Effects upon major groups of the microbiota and levels of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) were assessed over 24 h. Concomitantly, hydrophobic character and ability of both bacterial cells to adhere in vitro to Caco-2 cells were investigated. Quantitative analysis of bacterial populations revealed that there was a significant increase in Lactobacillus/Enterococcus numbers in vessels with probiotic supplemented with fructooligosaccharides (FOS), compared to the negative control. L. plantarum C4 showed to have more hydrophilic behaviour and fulfilled better adhesive properties, compared to L. rhamnosus GG. Thus, L. plantarum C4 can modulate the intestinal microbiota in vitro, promoting changes in some numerically and metabolically relevant microbial populations and shifts in the production of SCFA.

Sondrestrom and EISCAT radar observations of poleward-moving auroral forms

During many magnetospheric substorms, the auroral oval near midnight is observed to expand poleward in association with strong negative perturbations measured by local ground magnetometers. We show Sondrestrom and EISCAT incoherent scatter radar measurements during three such events. In each of the events, enhanced ionization produced by the precipitation moved northward by several degrees of latitude within 10–20 min. The electric fields measured during the three events were significantly different. In one event the electric field was southward everywhere within the precipitation region. In the other two events a reversal in the meridional component of the field was observed. In one case the reversal occurred within the precipitation region, while in the other case the reversal was at the poleward boundary of the precipitation. The westward electrojet that produces the negative H-perturbation in the ground magnetic field has Hall and Pedersen components to varying degrees. In one case the Hall component was eastward and the Pedersen component was westward, but the net magnetic H-deflection on the ground was negative. Simultaneous EISCAT measurements made near the dawn meridian during one of the events show that the polar cap boundary moved northward at the same time as the aurora expanded northward at Sondrestrom. Most of the differences in the electrodynamic configuration in the three events can be accounted for in terms of the location at which the measurements were made relative to the center of the auroral bulge.

Framing evidence: policy design for the zero carbon home

In 2006 the UK government announced a move to zero carbon homes by 2016. The demand posed a major challenge to policy makers and construction professionals entailing a protracted process of policy design. The task of giving content to this target is used to explore the role of evidence in the policy process. Whereas much literature on policy and evidence treats evidence as an external input, independent of politics, this paper explores the ongoing mutual constitution of both. Drawing on theories of policy framing and the sociology of classification, the account follows the story of a policy for Zero Carbon Homes from the parameters and values used to specify the target. Particular attention is given to the role of Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs) and to the creation of a new policy venue, the Zero Carbon Hub. The analysis underlines the way in which the choices about how to model and measure the aims potentially transforms them, the importance of policy venues for transparency and the role of RIAs in the authorization of particular definitions. A more transparent, open approach to policy formulation is needed in which the framing of evidence is recognized as an integral part of the policy process.