Health, Education and Employment in a Forward-Backward Dichotomy Based on Standard of Living Index for the Tribes in Kerala

The Paper unfolds the paradox that exists in the tribal community with respect to the development indicators and hence tries to cull out the difference in the standard of living of the tribes in a dichotomous framework, forward and backward. Four variables have been considered for ascertaining the standard of living and socio-economic conditions of the tribes. The data for the study is obtained from a primary survey in the three tribal predominant districts of Wayanad, Idukki and Palakkad. Wayanad was selected for studying six tribal communities (Paniya, Adiya, Kuruma, Kurichya, Urali and Kattunaika), Idukki for two communities (Malayarayan and Muthuvan) and Palakkad for one community (Irula). 500 samples from 9 prominent tribal communities of Kerala have been collected according to multistage proportionate random sample framework. The analysis highlights the disproportionate nature of socio-economic indicators within the tribes in Kerala owing to the failure of governmental schemes and assistances meant for their empowerment. The socio-economic variables, such as education, health, and livelihood have been augmented with SLI based on correlation analysis gives interesting inference for policy options as high educated tribal communities are positively correlated with high SLI and livelihood. Further, each of the SLI variable is decomposed using Correlation and Correspondence analysis for understanding the relative standing of the nine tribal sub communities in the three dimensional framework of high, medium and low SLI levels. Tribes with good education and employment (Malayarayan, Kuruma and Kurichya) have a better living standard and hence they can generally be termed as forward tribes whereas those with a low or poor education, employment and living standard indicators (Paniya, Adiya, Urali, Kattunaika, Muthuvans and Irula) are categorized as backward tribes

Community Participation in Ecotourism: An Inclusive Development Option for Kerala

The inferences obtained from the study are presented in coherent area-specific levels so as to understand the ecotourism and its sub-sector areas for the researchers and policy makers about the issues, importances and potentialities of the sector. An analysis of the tourism sector in Kerala has shown tremendous growth both in terms of tourist arrivals and in terms of revenue generation from direct and indirect sources. The foreign tourist visitors in Kerala in 2014 was 9,23,336 which shows 7.60 percent increase from the last year and the domestic tourist visitors were 1,16,95,411 which again shows 7.71 percent increase, is a clear evidence of its potential. In 2014 the industry contributed revenue of 24885.44 crores from direct and indirect sources giving rise to an increase of 12.11 percent from the last year. A dichotomy of tourists and ecotourists shows that tourists in the ecotourism destinations come to 42.6 percent of the total, shows the scope, significance and its potential. Correlation of zone-wise tourist arrivals based on the ecotourism destinations highlights the fact that with only 19 of the 64 destinations that come in the central zone are the most preferred centres (around 54 percent) for the domestic as well as foreign tourists. The north zone encompassing 6 districts with rich biodiversity shows that the tourists‟ arrival patterns exhibit less promising results. Though the north zone has 31 ecotourism destinations of the state receives only 6.19 percent of the foreign visitors. The ecotourism activities in the state are primarily managed by the Eco-Development Committees (EDCs) and the Vana Samrakshana Samithies (VSS) under the Forest Development Agency of Kerala. Social class-wise categorization of membership shows that 13142 families have membership in 190 EDCs with SC (28 percent), ST (33 percent) and other marginalised communities (39 percent). But this in the VSS shows that 400 VSS have 59085 members actively engaged in ecotourism activities and social category of the VSS makes clear that majority are from the other marginalized fringe households with 62 percent where as the participation of SC is 12 percent and ST is 26 percent. An evaluation of the socio-economic and demographic matrix of the community members involved in ecotourism activities brings out region specific differences. About 75.70 percent of the respondents are males and the rest are females. Majority of the respondents (about 60 percent) are in the age group of 20 to 40 years, followed by the age group of 40-50 (20 percent). The average age of respondents in the three zones is between 35 and 37 years. The majority of the respondents are married, a few are unmarried. Average family size is 4-5 members and differences are identified among zones. Average number of adults per household is 3 and child per household is 2. Majority have an education of 10th class and below i.e. about 60 percent of the sample have only basic school education like primary, secondary and high school (i.e. up to SSLC but not passed) level. About 18 percent are SSLC passed, 10 percent are undergraduates whereas 6 percent constitute respondents having qualification of graduation and above. Majority of the „graduates and above‟ are from south and central zone. Inter-zone differences in educational profile are also identified with lesser number of „graduates and above‟ are identified in the north zone compared to the other two zones. Investigating into the income and livelihood options of the respondents gives insight about the prominence of ecotourism as an employment and livelihood option for the community members, as more than 90 percent of the respondents have cited tourism sector as their main employment option. Most (49.30 percent) of respondents get 100 percent income from tourism related activities, followed by 37.30 percent of community members have income between 75-99 percent from tourism whereas the rest (13 percent) have less than 74 percent of their income from tourism and there exists difference between zones and percentage of income. Financial habit shows that about 49.7 percent hold active bank accounts, 61 percent have savings behaviour and 73.8 percent have indebtedness. Analysis about the ownership of house brings to light that 37 percent of respondents live in their own house followed by 25.7 percent in government funded/provided house and 21 percent in their parent‟s house and 3.5 percent in rented house. About 12 percent of the respondents have other kinds of accommodation facilities such as staff quarters, etc. But in the case of north zone majority i.e. 52 percent primarily depend on the government funded house indicating the effectiveness of government housing programme. Standard of living measured in SLI frameworks shows that majority of the respondents have medium SLI values (42.3 percent); the remaining 47.7 percent have low SLI and 10 percent have high SLI. The community members have been benefitted immensely from forest and its resources. Since the ecotourism destinations are located amidst the wildlife settings, majority of them depend on forest for their livelihood. The information on the tourist‟s demographic characteristics like age, sex, educational qualification and annual income show that the age category of domestic and foreign tourists falls below the age group of less than 35 years (about 65 percent), whereas only 16 percent of tourists are aged above 46 years. The age group below 25 years consists of more international tourists (31.3 percent) compared to the proportion of domestic tourists (12.5 percent). Male-female ratio shows that the males constitute 56 percent of the sample and females with 44 percent. The factors determining the impact of ecotourism programmes in the community was evaluated with the aid of a factor analysis with 12 selected statements. The worries and concerns of the community members about the impact of ecotourism on the environment are well understood from this analysis. It can be drawn that environment protection and the role of ecotourism in improving the income and livelihood options of the local communities is the most important factor concerning the community members.

Air-gap based vertical cavity micro-opto-electro-mechanical Fabry-Perot filters

Mikrooptische Filter sind heutzutage in vielen Bereichen in der Telekommunikation unersetzlich. Wichtige Einsatzgebiete sind aber auch spektroskopische Systeme in der Medizin-, Prozess- und Umwelttechnik. Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit der Technologieentwicklung und Herstellung von luftspaltbasierenden, vertikal auf einem Substrat angeordneten, oberflächenmikromechanisch hergestellten Fabry-Perot-Filtern. Es werden zwei verschiedene Filtervarianten, basierend auf zwei verschiedenen Materialsystemen, ausführlich untersucht. Zum einen handelt es sich dabei um die Weiterentwicklung von kontinuierlich mikromechanisch durchstimmbaren InP / Luftspaltfiltern; zum anderen werden neuartige, kostengünstige Siliziumnitrid / Luftspaltfilter wissenschaftlich behandelt. Der Inhalt der Arbeit ist so gegliedert, dass nach einer Einleitung mit Vergleichen zu Arbeiten und Ergebnissen anderer Forschergruppen weltweit, zunächst einige theoretische Grundlagen zur Berechnung der spektralen Reflektivität und Transmission von beliebigen optischen Schichtanordnungen aufgezeigt werden. Auß erdem wird ein kurzer theoretischer Ü berblick zu wichtigen Eigenschaften von Fabry-Perot-Filtern sowie der Möglichkeit einer mikromechanischen Durchstimmbarkeit gegeben. Daran anschließ end folgt ein Kapitel, welches sich den grundlegenden technologischen Aspekten der Herstellung von luftspaltbasierenden Filtern widmet. Es wird ein Zusammenhang zu wichtigen Referenzarbeiten hergestellt, auf denen diverse Weiterentwicklungen dieser Arbeit basieren. Die beiden folgenden Kapitel erläutern dann ausführlich das Design, die Herstellung und die Charakterisierung der beiden oben erwähnten Filtervarianten. Abgesehen von der vorangehenden Epitaxie von InP / GaInAs Schichten, ist die Herstellung der InP / Luftspaltfilter komplett im Institut durchgeführt worden. Die Herstellungsschritte sind ausführlich in der Arbeit erläutert, wobei ein Schwerpunktthema das trockenchemische Ä tzen von InP sowie GaInAs, welches als Opferschichtmaterial für die Herstellung der Luftspalte genutzt wurde, behandelt. Im Verlauf der wissenschaftlichen Arbeit konnten sehr wichtige technische Verbesserungen entwickelt und eingesetzt werden, welche zu einer effizienteren technologischen Herstellung der Filter führten und in der vorliegenden Niederschrift ausführlich dokumentiert sind. Die hergestellten, für einen Einsatz in der optischen Telekommunikation entworfenen, elektrostatisch aktuierbaren Filter sind aus zwei luftspaltbasierenden Braggspiegeln aufgebaut, welche wiederum jeweils 3 InP-Schichten von (je nach Design) 357nm bzw. 367nm Dicke aufweisen. Die Filter bestehen aus im definierten Abstand parallel übereinander angeordneten Membranen, die über Verbindungsbrücken unterschiedlicher Anzahl und Länge an Haltepfosten befestigt sind. Da die mit 357nm bzw. 367nm vergleichsweise sehr dünnen Schichten freitragende Konstrukte mit bis zu 140 nm Länge bilden, aber trotzdem Positionsgenauigkeiten im nm-Bereich einhalten müssen, handelt es sich hierbei um sehr anspruchsvolle mikromechanische Bauelemente. Um den Einfluss der zahlreichen geometrischen Strukturparameter studieren zu können, wurden verschiedene laterale Filterdesigns implementiert. Mit den realisierten Filter konnte ein enorm weiter spektraler Abstimmbereich erzielt werden. Je nach lateralem Design wurden internationale Bestwerte für durchstimmbare Fabry-Perot-Filter von mehr als 140nm erreicht. Die Abstimmung konnte dabei kontinuierlich mit einer angelegten Spannung von nur wenigen Volt durchgeführt werden. Im Vergleich zu früher berichteten Ergebnissen konnten damit sowohl die Wellenlängenabstimmung als auch die dafür benötigte Abstimmungsspannung signifikant verbessert werden. Durch den hohen Brechungsindexkontrast und die geringe Schichtdicke zeigen die Filter ein vorteilhaftes, extrem weites Stopband in der Größ enordnung um 550nm. Die gewählten, sehr kurzen Kavitätslängen ermöglichen einen freien Spektralbereich des Filters welcher ebenfalls in diesen Größ enordnungen liegt, so dass ein weiter spektraler Einsatzbereich ermöglicht wird. Während der Arbeit zeigte sich, dass Verspannungen in den freitragenden InPSchichten die Funktionsweise der mikrooptischen Filter stark beeinflussen bzw. behindern. Insbesondere eine Unterätzung der Haltepfosten und die daraus resultierende Verbiegung der Ecken an denen sich die Verbindungsbrücken befinden, führte zu enormen vertikalen Membranverschiebungen, welche die Filtereigenschaften verändern. Um optimale Ergebnisse zu erreichen, muss eine weitere Verbesserung der Epitaxie erfolgen. Jedoch konnten durch den zusätzlichen Einsatz einer speziellen Schutzmaske die Unterätzung der Haltepfosten und damit starke vertikale Verformungen reduziert werden. Die aus der Verspannung resultierenden Verformungen und die Reaktion einzelner freistehender InP Schichten auf eine angelegte Gleich- oder Wechselspannung wurde detailliert untersucht. Mittels Weisslichtinterferometrie wurden lateral identische Strukturen verglichen, die aus unterschiedlich dicken InP-Schichten (357nm bzw. 1065nm) bestehen. Einen weiteren Hauptteil der Arbeit stellen Siliziumnitrid / Luftspaltfilter dar, welche auf einem neuen, im Rahmen dieser Dissertation entwickelten, technologischen Ansatz basieren. Die Filter bestehen aus zwei Braggspiegeln, die jeweils aus fünf 590nm dicken, freistehenden Siliziumnitridschichten aufgebaut sind und einem Abstand von 390nm untereinander aufweisen. Die Filter wurden auf Glassubstraten hergestellt. Der Herstellungsprozess ist jedoch auch mit vielen anderen Materialien oder Prozessen kompatibel, so dass z.B. eine Integration mit anderen Bauelemente relativ leicht möglich ist. Die Prozesse dieser ebenfalls oberflächenmikromechanisch hergestellten Filter wurden konsequent auf niedrige Herstellungskosten optimiert. Als Opferschichtmaterial wurde hier amorph abgeschiedenes Silizium verwendet. Der Herstellungsprozess beinhaltet die Abscheidung verspannungsoptimierter Schichten (Silizium und Siliziumnitrid) mittels PECVD, die laterale Strukturierung per reaktiven Ionenätzen mit den Gasen SF6 / CHF3 / Ar sowie Fotolack als Maske, die nasschemische Unterätzung der Opferschichten mittels KOH und das Kritisch-Punkt-Trocken der Proben. Die Ergebnisse der optischen Charakterisierung der Filter zeigen eine hohe Ü bereinstimmung zwischen den experimentell ermittelten Daten und den korrespondierenden theoretischen Modellrechnungen. Weisslichtinterferometermessungen der freigeätzten Strukturen zeigen ebene Filterschichten und bestätigen die hohe vertikale Positioniergenauigkeit, die mit diesem technologischen Ansatz erreicht werden kann.

Innovation and Globalization Policy in Small Transition Countries ; Case study: Macedonia and Slovenia

Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit der Innovations- und Globalisierungspolitik in kleinen Transformationsländern am Beispiel Mazedoniens; diese wurde mit der Lage in Slowenien verglichen, einem Land von ungefähr gleicher Größe und mit gemeinsamer Vergangenheit als Teilrepublik der Jugoslawischen Föderation, aber mit einem wesentlich höheren ökonomischen Entwicklungsstand. Innovation wird dabei verstanden als „Herstellung, Anpassung und Ausnutzung von Neuerungen“, und sie wird durch das Umfeld, in dem sie stattfindet, beeinflusst. Anpassung und Ausnutzung sind gerade für kleine Transformationsländer von erheblicher Bedeutung, da ihre Fähigkeit zu Herstellung von Neuerungen sehr begrenzt sind. Die Rolle der Innovationspolitik besteht hierbei darin, institutionelle und organisationelle Regulierungen einzuführen, die ein günstiges Umfeld sowohl für Innovationen als auch für die Entwicklung eines nationalen Innovationssystems schaffen. Die Rolle der Politik besteht also nicht in der Innovation als solcher, sondern in der Herstellung der notwendigen Bedingungen für die Industrie und die Forschungseinrichtungen dahingehend zu schaffen, dass sie ihr Wissen, ihre Fertigkeiten und ihre praktischen Erfahrungen für innovative Tätigkeiten einsetzen können. Auf der einen Seite gibt es Institutionen und Organisationen, ohne die die Unternehmen rückständig und wenig leistungsstark wären (etwa das Patentamt oder Institutionen höherer Bildung), und auf der anderen Seite gibt es Institutionen und Organisationen, welche die Unternehmen dabei unterstützen, dass sie ihre Tätigkeit weiter unterstützen (z.B. durch Technologietransfer-Zentren und Netzwerke). Die Leistungen dieser Institutionen und Organisationen sind von großer Bedeutung für die nationalen Innovationssysteme und sollten ihrerseits durch Innovationspolitik unterstützt werden; dies bedeutet jedoch nicht, dass diese Leistungen vom Staat bereitgestellt werden, vielmehr sollte die Wirtschaftspolitik Möglichkeiten für die öffentlich/private oder sogar rein private Bereitstellung solcher Leistungen in Erwägung ziehen; dies würde nicht nur die Kosten für den Staat senken, sondern auch die Effizienz bei der Erstellung dieser Leistungen steigern. Die Arbeit kommt zu dem Schluss, dass das größte Problem der Innovationspolitik in Mazedonien darin besteht, dass es sie gar nicht gibt, und zwar nicht als Folge einer bewussten Entscheidung darüber. Tatsächlich müssen Ressourcen und Zeit für die Schaffung eines nationalen Innovationssystems eingesetzt werden mit Hilfe einer Politik, die sich auf die wesentlichen Umrisse konzentriert, wobei die Nachfrage nach Technologie im Unternehmensbereich gesteigert wird und das Wissen und das Informationsangebot restrukturiert wird. Dieses System muss offen sein, unter beständigem Verbesserungsdruck stehen und fähig sein, sich an Veränderungen anzupassen. Damit eine solche Politik erfolgreich ist, muss es einen Konsens darüber zwischen allen beteiligten Akteuren geben und darüber hinaus auch eine Kohärenz zwischen den verschiedenen politischen Institutionen. Das ist deswegen wichtig, weil der Innovationsprozess komplex ist und verschiedene Politikbereiche berührt. Ziel sollte die Schaffung eines Systems sein, das einerseits auf Autonomie und Kooperation aufbaut, andererseits aber auch Wettbewerb zwischen den beteiligten Institutionen und Organisationen fördert. Eine wichtige Bedingung für ein positives Investitionsklima im Bereich der Innovation ist die Erreichung von makroökonomischer Stabilität. Die gegenwärtige Situation ist gekennzeichnet durch Instabilität des Rechtswesens, durch Korruption und Probleme des Vertragsschutzes, die sowohl ausländische als auch inländische Akteure davon abhält, sich in wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in Mazedonien zu engagieren. Bei der Suche nach einem Ausweg aus diesen Problemen ist es wichtig für Mazedonien, von anderen Ländern wie Slowenien zu lernen, die ähnliche Probleme haben, aber auch schon Erfahrungen in der Problemlösung. Man muss dabei beachten, dass der Entwicklungsstand, das wirtschaftliche und das politische Umfeld in beiden Vergleichsländern sich erheblich unterscheiden, so dass die Lektionen, die Mazedonien von Slowenien lernen könnte, nicht direkt übertragen und kopiert werden können, sondern entsprechend angepasst werden müssen. Die vorliegende Arbeit liefert Einsichten in die Probleme der Innovationspolitik in Transformationsländern und liefert daher sowohl einen Anreiz als auch eine Quelle von Informationen für künftige Analysen der wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen und vor allem Innovationspolitik in Transformationsländern.

Decision‐Making in Public Good Dilemmas: Theory and Agent‐Based Simulation

In many real world contexts individuals find themselves in situations where they have to decide between options of behaviour that serve a collective purpose or behaviours which satisfy one’s private interests, ignoring the collective. In some cases the underlying social dilemma (Dawes, 1980) is solved and we observe collective action (Olson, 1965). In others social mobilisation is unsuccessful. The central topic of social dilemma research is the identification and understanding of mechanisms which yield to the observed cooperation and therefore resolve the social dilemma. It is the purpose of this thesis to contribute this research field for the case of public good dilemmas. To do so, existing work that is relevant to this problem domain is reviewed and a set of mandatory requirements is derived which guide theory and method development of the thesis. In particular, the thesis focusses on dynamic processes of social mobilisation which can foster or inhibit collective action. The basic understanding is that success or failure of the required process of social mobilisation is determined by heterogeneous individual preferences of the members of a providing group, the social structure in which the acting individuals are contained, and the embedding of the individuals in economic, political, biophysical, or other external contexts. To account for these aspects and for the involved dynamics the methodical approach of the thesis is computer simulation, in particular agent-based modelling and simulation of social systems. Particularly conductive are agent models which ground the simulation of human behaviour in suitable psychological theories of action. The thesis develops the action theory HAPPenInGS (Heterogeneous Agents Providing Public Goods) and demonstrates its embedding into different agent-based simulations. The thesis substantiates the particular added value of the methodical approach: Starting out from a theory of individual behaviour, in simulations the emergence of collective patterns of behaviour becomes observable. In addition, the underlying collective dynamics may be scrutinised and assessed by scenario analysis. The results of such experiments reveal insights on processes of social mobilisation which go beyond classical empirical approaches and yield policy recommendations on promising intervention measures in particular.

The social dimension: a neglected policy item in the Bologna Process

Since its beginning in 1999, the Bologna Process has influenced various aspects of higher education in its member countries, e.g., degree structures, mobility, lifelong learning, social dimension and quality assurance. The social dimension creates the focus of this research. The social dimension entered the Bologna Process agenda in 2001. Despite a decade of reforms, it somehow remained as a vague element and received low scholarly attention. This research addresses to this gap. Firstly, different meanings of the social dimension according to the major European policy actors are analysed. Unfolding the understandings of the actors revealed that the social dimension is mostly understood in terms reflecting the diversity of population on the student body accessing to, progressing in and completing higher education, with a special concern on the underrepresented groups. However, it is not possible to observe a similar commonality concerning the actual policy measures to achieve this goal. Divergence occurs with respect to the addressed underrepresented groups, i.e., all underrepresented groups or people without formal qualifications and mature learners, and the values and institutional interests traditionally promoted by these actors. Secondly, the dissertation discusses the reflection of this social dimension understanding at the national level by looking at cases of Finland, Germany and Turkey. The in-depth analyses show an awareness of the social dimension among most of the national Bologna Process actors and a common understanding of the social dimension goals. However, this understanding has not triggered action in any of the countries. The countries acted on areas which they defined problematic before the Bologna Process. Finally, based on these findings the dissertation discusses the social dimension as a policy item that managed to get into the Bologna Process agenda, but neither grew into an implementable policy, nor drop out of it. To this aim, it makes use of the multiple streams framework and explains the low agenda status social dimension with: i. the lack of a pressing problem definition: the lack of clearly defined indicators and a comprehensive monitoring system, ii. the lack of a viable solution alternative: the proposal of developing national strategies and action plans closed the way to develop generic guidelines for the social dimension to be translated into national policy processes, iii. low political perceptivity: the recent trends opt for increasing efficiency, excellence and exclusiveness discourses rather than ensuring equality and inclusiveness iv. high constraints: the social dimension by definition requires more public funding which is less appreciated and strategic constraints of the actors in allocating their resources v. the type of policy entrepreneur: the social dimension is promoted by an international stakeholder, the European Students’ Union, instead of the ministers responsible for higher education The social dimension remains a policy item in the Bologna Process which is noble enough to agree but not urgent enough to act on.

Social Inequality and Social Policy outside the OECD

Almost all Latin American countries are still marked by extreme forms of social inequality – and to an extent, this seems to be the case regardless of national differences in the economic development model or the strength of democracy and the welfare state. Recent research highlights the fact that the heterogeneous labour markets in the region are a key source of inequality. At the same time, there is a strengthening of ‘exclusive’ social policy, which is located at the fault lines of the labour market and is constantly (re-)producing market-mediated disparities. In the last three decades, this type of social policy has even enjoyed democratic legitimacy. These dynamics challenge many of the assumptions guiding social policy and democratic theory, which often attempt to account for the specificities of the region by highlighting the purported flaws of certain policies. We suggest taking a different perspective: social policy in Latin American should not be grasped as a deficient or flawed type of social policy, but as a very successful relation of political domination. ‘Relational social analysis’ locates social policy in the ‘tension zone’ constituted by the requirements of economic reproduction, demands for democratic legitimacy and the relative autonomy of the state. From this vantage point, we will make the relation of domination in question accessible for empirical research. It seems particularly useful for this purpose to examine the recent shifts in the Latin American labour markets, which have undergone numerous reforms. We will examine which mechanisms, institutions and constellations of actors block or activate the potentials of redistribution inherent in such processes of political reform. This will enable us to explore the socio-political field of forces that has been perpetuating the social inequalities in Latin America for generations.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

From evolution to co-evolution – An empirical study of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics

In the past decades since Schumpeter’s influential writings economists have pursued research to examine the role of innovation in certain industries on firm as well as on industry level. Researchers describe innovations as the main trigger of industry dynamics, while policy makers argue that research and education are directly linked to economic growth and welfare. Thus, research and education are an important objective of public policy. Firms and public research are regarded as the main actors which are relevant for the creation of new knowledge. This knowledge is finally brought to the market through innovations. What is more, policy makers support innovations. Both actors, i.e. policy makers and researchers, agree that innovation plays a central role but researchers still neglect the role that public policy plays in the field of industrial dynamics. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to learn more about the interdependencies of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. The overarching research question of this dissertation asks whether it is possible to analyze patterns of industry evolution – from evolution to co-evolution – based on empirical studies of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. This work starts with a hypothesis-based investigation of traditional approaches of industrial dynamics. Namely, the testing of a basic assumption of the core models of industrial dynamics and the analysis of the evolutionary patterns – though with an industry which is driven by public policy as example. Subsequently it moves to a more explorative approach, investigating co-evolutionary processes. The underlying questions of the research include the following: Do large firms have an advantage because of their size which is attributable to cost spreading? Do firms that plan to grow have more innovations? What role does public policy play for the evolutionary patterns of an industry? Are the same evolutionary patterns observable as those described in the ILC theories? And is it possible to observe regional co-evolutionary processes of science, innovation and industry evolution? Based on two different empirical contexts – namely the laser and the photovoltaic industry – this dissertation tries to answer these questions and combines an evolutionary approach with a co-evolutionary approach. The first chapter starts with an introduction of the topic and the fields this dissertation is based on. The second chapter provides a new test of the Cohen and Klepper (1996) model of cost spreading, which explains the relationship between innovation, firm size and R&D, at the example of the photovoltaic industry in Germany. First, it is analyzed whether the cost spreading mechanism serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry. This is related to the assumption that the incentives to invest in R&D increase with the ex-ante output. Furthermore, it is investigated whether firms that plan to grow will have more innovative activities. The results indicate that cost spreading serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry and, furthermore, growth plans lead to higher amount of innovative activities. What is more, the role public policy plays for industry evolution is not finally analyzed in the field of industrial dynamics. In the case of Germany, the introduction of demand inducing policy instruments stimulated market and industry growth. While this policy immediately accelerated market volume, the effect on industry evolution is more ambiguous. Thus, chapter three analyzes this relationship by considering a model of industry evolution, where demand-inducing policies will be discussed as a possible trigger of development. The findings suggest that these instruments can take the same effect as a technical advance to foster the growth of an industry and its shakeout. The fourth chapter explores the regional co-evolution of firm population size, private-sector patenting and public research in the empirical context of German laser research and manufacturing over more than 40 years from the emergence of the industry to the mid-2000s. The qualitative as well as quantitative evidence is suggestive of a co-evolutionary process of mutual interdependence rather than a unidirectional effect of public research on private-sector activities. Chapter five concludes with a summary, the contribution of this work as well as the implications and an outlook of further possible research.

Extracting Urban Food Potential: design-based methods for digital and bodily cartography

Sweden’s recent report on Urban Sustainable Development calls out a missing link between the urban design process and citizens. This paper investigates if engaging citizens as design agents by providing a platform for alternate participation can bridge this gap, through the transfer of spatial agency and new modes of critical cartography. To assess whether this is the case, the approaches are applied to Stockholm’s urban agriculture movement in a staged intervention. The aim of the intervention was to engage citizens in locating existing and potential places for growing food and in gathering information from these sites to inform design in urban agriculture. The design-based methodologies incorporated digital and bodily interfaces for this cartography to take place. The Urban CoMapper, a smartphone digital app, captured real-time perspectives through crowd-sourced mapping. In the bodily cartography, participant’s used their bodies to trace the site and reveal their sensorial perceptions. The data gathered from these approaches gave way to a mode of artistic research for exploring urban agriculture, along with inviting artists to be engaged in the dialogues. In sum, results showed that a combination of digital and bodily approaches was necessary for a critical cartography if we want to engage citizens holistically into the urban design process as spatial agents informing urban policy. Such methodologies formed a reflective interrogation and encouraged a new intimacy with nature, in this instance, one that can transform our urban conduct by questioning our eating habits: where we get our food from and how we eat it seasonally.

Prototype of a Configurable Web-Based Assessment System

The MIT Prototype Educational Assessment System provides subjects and courses at MIT with the ability to perform online assessment. The system includes polices to handle harassment and electronic "flaming" while protecting privacy. Within these frameworks, individual courses and subjects can make their own policy decisions about such matters as to when assessments can occur, who can submit assessments, and how anonymous assessments are. By allowing assessment to take place continually and allowing both students and staff to participate, the system can provide a forum for the online discussion of subjects. Even in the case of scheduled assessments, the system can provide advantages over end-of-term assessment, since the scheduled assessments can occur several times during the semester, allowing subjects to identify and adjust those areas that could use improvement. Subjects can also develop customized questionnaires, perhaps in response to previous assessments, to suit their needs.

Reinforcement Learning by Policy Search

One objective of artificial intelligence is to model the behavior of an intelligent agent interacting with its environment. The environment's transformations can be modeled as a Markov chain, whose state is partially observable to the agent and affected by its actions; such processes are known as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). While the environment's dynamics are assumed to obey certain rules, the agent does not know them and must learn. In this dissertation we focus on the agent's adaptation as captured by the reinforcement learning framework. This means learning a policy---a mapping of observations into actions---based on feedback from the environment. The learning can be viewed as browsing a set of policies while evaluating them by trial through interaction with the environment. The set of policies is constrained by the architecture of the agent's controller. POMDPs require a controller to have a memory. We investigate controllers with memory, including controllers with external memory, finite state controllers and distributed controllers for multi-agent systems. For these various controllers we work out the details of the algorithms which learn by ascending the gradient of expected cumulative reinforcement. Building on statistical learning theory and experiment design theory, a policy evaluation algorithm is developed for the case of experience re-use. We address the question of sufficient experience for uniform convergence of policy evaluation and obtain sample complexity bounds for various estimators. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms on several domains, the most complex of which is simulated adaptive packet routing in a telecommunication network.

Towards Direct Policy Search Reinforcement Learning for Robot Control

This paper proposes a high-level reinforcement learning (RL) control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot. Although the dominant approach, when using RL, has been to apply value function based algorithms, the system here detailed is characterized by the use of direct policy search methods. Rather than approximating a value function, these methodologies approximate a policy using an independent function approximator with its own parameters, trying to maximize the future expected reward. The policy based algorithm presented in this paper is used for learning the internal state/action mapping of a behavior. In this preliminary work, we demonstrate its feasibility with simulated experiments using the underwater robot GARBI in a target reaching task

Policy Skills for Web Scientists

Practical group based work on reading and interrogating evidence and writing policy briefings/critiques

La reintegración social y económica de los grupos armados ilegales en Colombia: reflexiones a partir de la trayectoria de nueve excombatientes

Esta investigación toma como marco general la Política de Reintegración Social y económica de personas y grupos alzados en armas en Colombia, en donde tras el estudio de las trayectorias en el conflicto de un grupo de 9 excombatientes, se aborda la relación existente entre los beneficios otorgados por dicha política y aquello que facilitó y motivó el ingreso, la permanencia y desmovilización de los grupos armados. Se presenta una caracterización e interpretación conceptual de las denominadas trayectorias en el conflicto, son establecidas relaciones y diferencias entre las organizaciones ilegales FARC y las AUC, se revisan las percepciones que frente a los beneficios del programa de reintegración tienen excombatientes y profesionales de la entidad que lidera dicho proceso y a partir de ello, es argumentada la incidencia que sobre el éxito de esta política tienen las características individuales y particulares, tanto de los excombatientes como de las organizaciones armadas ilegales.