Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Innnovation and new business models for the regional development: travel and transportation

Regional development could present different strategies: •Relocation of industry clusters •Foreign Direct Investment attraction •Innovation based on new business models The Regional Government of Madrid (3rd largest GDP in the EU) selected strategic industries to compete & innovate: •Travel & Transportation •Aerospace •Nanotech. & •Biotech. •ICTs. •Energy

Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

Post-harmonised European National Travel Surveys

Look-up tables are collected and analysed for 12 European National Travel Surveys (NTS) in a harmonized way covering the age group 13-84 year. Travel behaviour measured as kilometres, time use and trips per traveller is compared. Trips per traveller are very similar over the countries whereas kilometres differ most, from minus 28% for Spain to plus 19% and 14% for Sweden and Finland. It is shown that two main factors for differences are GDP per capita and density in the urban areas. The latter is the main reason for the low level in Spain. Mode share is except for Spain with a very high level of walking trips rather similar with a higher level of cycling in the Netherlands, more public transport in Switzerland, and more air traffic in Sweden. Normally kilometres per respondent/inhabitant is used for national planning purpose and this is very affected by the share of mobile travellers. The immobile share is varying between 8 and 28% with 6 NTS at a 15-17% level. These differences are analysed and discussed and it is concluded that the immobile share should be a little less than 15-17% because it is assessed that some short trips might have been forgotten in these 6 countries. The share has a downward tendency with higher density. The resulting immobile share is very dependent on data collection methodology, sampling method, quality of interviewer felt-work etc. The paper shows other possibilities to improve local surveys based on comparison with other countries.

Modelling the relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour: policy and indicators

Due to the necessity to undertake activities, every year people increase their standards of travelling (distance and time). Urban sprawl development plays an important role in these "enlargements". Thus, governments invest money in an exhaustiva search for solutions to high levels of congestion and car-trips. The complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. Thus, the objective of this paper is to answer the important question of which land-use attributes influence which dimensions of travel behaviour, and to verify to what extent specific urban planning measures affect the individual decision process, by exhaustiva statistical and systematic tests. This paper found that a crucial issue in the analysis of the relationship between the built environment and travel behaviour is the definition of indicators. As such, we recommend a feasible list of indicators to analyze this relationship.

The Spanish Travel Subjective Lexicon (STSL).

This paper presents a proposal for a recognition model for the appraisal value of sentences. It is based on splitting the text into independent sentences (full stops) and then analysing the appraisal elements contained in each sentence according to the previous value in the appraisal lexicon. In this lexicon, positive words are assigned a positive coefficient (+1) and negative words a negative coefficient (-1). We take into account word such as ?too?, ?little? (when it is not ?a bit?), ?less?, and ?nothing? than can modify the polarity degree of lexical unit when appear in the nearby environment. If any of these elements are present, then the previous coefficient will be multiplied by (-1), that is, they will change their sign. Our results show a nearly theoretical effectiveness of 90%, despite not achieving the recognition (or misrecognition) of implicit elements. These elements represent approximately 4% of the total of sentences analysed for appraisal and include the errors in the recognition of coordinated sentences. On the one hand, we found that 3.6 % of the sentences could not be recognized because they use different connectors than those included in the model; on the other hand, we found that in 8.6% of the sentences despite using some of the described connectors could not be applied the rules we have developed. The percentage relative to the whole group of appraisal sentences in the corpus was approximately of 5%.

Application of the agency theory for the analysis of performance-based mechanisms in road management

El WCTR es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte, y aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. This paper develops a model based on agency theory to analyze road management systems (under the different contract forms available today) that employ a mechanism of performance indicators to establish the payment of the agent. The base assumption is that of asymmetric information between the principal (Public Authorities) and the agent (contractor) and the risk aversion of this latter. It is assumed that the principal may only measure the agent?s performance indirectly and by means of certain performance indicators that may be verified by the authorities. In this model there is presumed to be a relation between the efforts made by the agent and the performance level measured by the corresponding indicators, though it is also considered that there may be dispersion between both variables that gives rise to a certain degree of randomness in the contract. An analysis of the optimal contract has been made on the basis of this model and in accordance with a series of parameters that characterize the economic environment and the particular conditions of road infrastructure. As a result of the analysis made, it is considered that an optimal contract should generally combine a fixed component and a payment in accordance with the performance level obtained. The higher the risk aversion of the agent and the greater the marginal cost of public funds, the lower the impact of this performance-based payment. By way of conclusion, the system of performance indicators should be as broad as possible but should not overweight those indicators that encompass greater randomness in their results.

Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour

This paper explores the potential role of individual trip characteristics and social capital network variables in the choice of transport mode. A sample of around 100 individuals living or working in one suburb of Madrid (i.e. Las Rosas district of Madrid) participated in a smartphone short panel survey, entering travel data for an entire working week. A Mixed Logit model was estimated with this data to analyze shifts to metro as a consequence of the opening of two new stations in the area. Apart from classical explanatory variables, such as travel time and cost, gender, license and car ownership, the model incorporated two “social capital network” variables: participation in voluntary activities and receiving help for various tasks (i.e. child care, housekeeping, etc.). Both variables improved the capacity of the model to explain transport mode shifts. Further, our results confirm that the shift towards metro was higher in the case of people “helped” and lower for those participating in some voluntary activities.

FATS: a framework for annotation of travel blogs based on subjectivity

This paper describes a framework for annotation on travel blogs based on subjectivity (FATS). The framework has the capability to auto-annotate -sentence by sentence- sections from blogs (posts) about travelling in the Spanish language. FATS is used in this experiment to annotate com- ponents from travel blogs in order to create a corpus of 300 annotated posts. Each subjective element in a sentence is annotated as positive or negative as appropriate. Currently correct annotations add up to about 95 per cent in our subset of the travel domain. By means of an iterative process of annotation we can create a subjectively annotated domain specific corpus.

Active materiality : the agency of matter from the phenomenological perspective = Materialidad activa : la operatividad de la materia desde el punto de vista fenomenológico

The role of matter has remained central to the making and the thinking of architecture, yet many attempts to capture its essence have been trapped in a dialectic tension between form and materiality, between material consistency and immaterial modes of perception, between static states and dynamic processes, between the real and the virtual, thus advancing an increasing awareness of the perplexing complexity of the material world. Within that complexity, the notion of agency – emerging from and within ecological, politico-economic and socio-cultural processes – calls for a reconceptualization of matter, and consequently processes of materialisation, offering a new understanding of context and space, approached as a field of dynamic relationships. In this context, cutting across boundaries between architectural discourse and practice as well as across the vast trans-disciplinary territory, this dissertation aims to illustrate a variety of design methodologies that have derived from the relational approach. More specifically, the intention is to offer new insights into spatial epistemologies embedded within the notion of atmosphere – commonly associated with the so-called New Phenomenology – and to reflect upon its implications for architectural production. In what follows, the intended argumentation has a twofold dimension. First, through a scrutiny of the notion of atmosphere, the aim is to explore ways of thinking and shaping reality through relations, thus acknowledging the aforementioned complexity of the material universe disclosed through human and non-human as well as material and immaterial forces. Secondly, despite the fact that concerns for atmospherics have flourished over the last few decades, the objective is to reveal that the conceptual foundations and procedures for the production of atmosphere might be found beneath the surface of contemporary debates. Hence, in order to unfold and illustrate previously advocated assumptions, an archaeological approach is adopted, tracing a particular projective genealogy, one that builds upon an atmospheric awareness. Accordingly, in tracing such an atmospheric awareness the study explores the notoriously ambiguous nature and the twofold dimension of atmosphere – meteorological and aesthetic – and the heterogeneity of meanings embedded in them. In this context, the notion of atmosphere is presented as parallactic. It transgresses the formal and material boundaries of bodies. It calls for a reevaluation of perceptual experience, opening a new gap that exposes the orthodox space-bodyenvironment relationships to questioning. It offers to architecture an expanded domain in which to manifest itself, defining architectural space as a contingent construction and field of engagement, and presenting matter as a locus of production/performance/action. Consequently, it is such an expanded or relational dimension that constitutes the foundation of what in the context of this study is to be referred to as affective tectonics. Namely, a tectonics that represents processual and experiential multiplicity of convergent time and space, body and environment, the material and the immaterial; a tectonics in which matter neither appears as an inert and passive substance, nor is limited to the traditionally regarded tectonic significance or expressive values, but is presented as an active element charged with inherent potential and vitality. By defining such a relational materialism, the intention is to expand the spectrum of material attributes revealing the intrinsic relationships between the physical properties of materials and their performative, transformative and affective capacities, including effects of interference and haptic dynamics – i.e. protocols of transmission and interaction. The expression that encapsulates its essence is: ACTIVE MATERIALITY RESUMEN El significado de la materia ha estado desde siempre ligado al pensamiento y el quehacer arquitectónico. Sin embargo, muchos intentos de capturar su esencia se han visto sumergidos en una tensión dialéctica entre la forma y la materialidad, entre la consistencia material y los modos inmateriales de la percepción, entre los estados estáticos y los procesos dinámicos, entre lo real y lo virtual, revelando una creciente conciencia de la desconcertante complejidad del mundo material. En esta complejidad, la noción de la operatividad o capacidad agencial– que emerge desde y dentro de los procesos ecológicos, políticos y socio-culturales– requiere de una reconceptualización de la materia y los procesos inherentes a la materialización, ofreciendo una nueva visión del contexto y el espacio, entendidos como un campo relacional dinámico. Oscilando entre el discurso arquitectónico y la práctica arquitectónica, y atravesando un extenso territorio trans-disciplinar, el objetivo de la presente tesis es ilustrar la variedad de metodologías proyectuales que emergieron desde este enfoque relacional. Concretamente, la intención es indagar en las epistemologías espaciales vinculadas a la noción de la atmósfera– generalmente asociada a la llamada Nueva Fenomenología–, reflexionando sobre su impacto en la producción arquitectónica. A continuación, el estudio ofrece una doble línea argumental. Primero, a través del análisis crítico de la noción de atmósfera, el objetivo es explorar maneras de pensar y dar forma a la realidad a través de las relaciones, reconociendo la mencionada complejidad del universo material revelado a través de fuerzas humanas y no-humanas, materiales e inmateriales. Segundo, a pesar de que el interés por las atmósferas ha florecido en las últimas décadas, la intención es demostrar que las bases conceptuales y los protocolos proyectuales de la creación de atmósferas se pueden encontrar bajo la superficie de los debates contemporáneos. Para corroborar e ilustrar estas hipótesis se propone una metodología de carácter arqueológico, trazando una particular genealogía de proyectos– la que se basa en una conciencia atmosférica. Asimismo, al definir esta conciencia atmosférica, el estudio explora tanto la naturaleza notoriamente ambigua y la dimensión dual de la atmósfera– meteorológica y estética–, como la heterogeneidad de significados derivados de ellas. En este contexto, la atmósfera se entiende como un concepto detonante, ya que sobrepasa los limites formales y materiales de los cuerpos, llevando a la re-evaluación de la experiencia perceptiva y abriendo a preguntas la ortodoxa relación espacio- cuerpo-ambiente. En consecuencia, la noción de la atmósfera ofrece a la arquitectura una dimensión expandida donde manifestarse, definiendo el espacio como una construcción contingente, performativa y afectiva, y presentando la materia como locus de producción/ actuación/ acción. Es precisamente esta dimensión expandida relacional la que constituye una base para lo que en el contexto del presente estudio se define como una tectónica afectiva. Es decir, una tectónica que representa una multiplicidad procesual y experiencial derivada de la convergencia entre el tiempo y el espacio, el cuerpo y el entorno, lo material y lo inmaterial; una tectónica en la que la materia no aparece como una substancia pasiva e inerte, ni es limitada al significado considerado tradicionalmente constructivo o a sus valores expresivos, sino que se presenta como elemento activo cargado de un potencial y vitalidad inherentes. A través de la definición de este tipo de materialismo afectivo, la intención es expandir el espectro de los atributos materiales, revelando las relaciones intrínsecas entre las propiedades físicas de los materiales y sus capacidades performativas, transformativas y afectivas, incluyendo efectos de interferencias y dinámicas hápticas– o dicho de otro modo, protocolos de transmisión e interacción. Una expresión que encapsula su esencia vendría a ser: MATERIALIDAD ACTIVA