Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: reviewing child protection in England

This paper concerns the innovative use of a blend of systems thinking ideas in the ‘Munro Review of Child Protection’, a high-profile examination of child protection activities in England, conducted for the Department for Education. We go ‘behind the scenes’ to describe the OR methodologies and processes employed. The circumstances that led to the Review are outlined. Three specific contributions that systems thinking made to the Review are then described. First, the systems-based analysis and visualisation of how a ‘compliance culture’ had grown up. Second the creation of a large, complex systems map of current operations and the effects of past policies on them. Third, how the map gave shape to the range of issues the Review addressed and acted as an organising framework for the systemically coherent set of recommendations made. The paper closes with an outline of the main implementation steps taken so far to create a child protection system with the critically reflective properties of a learning organisation, and methodological reflections on the benefits of systems thinking to support organisational analysis.

Transcriptomic analysis of Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 in response to plant extracts

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) are a group of food and contact-borne pathogens responsible for haemorrhagic colitis. The bacteria can be transmitted by contaminated meat, but importantly, also by plants. The bacteria can use plants as an alternative host, where they associate with both the leaves and the roots. Colonisation in the rhizosphere of plants is thought to be the main habitat for colonisation. Four different plant species, commonly associated with EHEC outbreaks, were infected with EHEC O157:H7 isolates Sakai and TUV 93-0 over ten days to assess the colonisation potential of the bacteria in both the phyllosphere and rhizosphere of plants. The rhizosphere was found to sustain a higher population level of bacteria over time in comparison to the phyllosphere, yet both strains were unable to utilize root exudates for growth. Global gene expression changes of EHEC O157:H7 strain Sakai were measured in response to plant extracts such as leaf lysates, root exudates and leaf cell wall polysaccharides from spinach cultivar Amazon and lettuce cultivar Salinas. Microarrays analysis showed a significant change in expression of 17 % of genes on exposure to leaf lysates of spinach. A more specific response was seen to spinach leaf cell wall polysaccharides with only a 1.5 % change. In contrast, when exposed to lettuce leaf cell wall polysaccharides a higher change of 4.8 % was seen. Genes that were differentially expressed belonged to multiple functional groups, including metabolism, indicating the utilization of plant-specific polysaccharides. Several areas of further investigation have been determined from this project, including the importance of culturing bacterial strains at a relevant temperature, the proposed lack of the type III secretion system in plant colonization by EHEC O157:H7 and the utilization of plant components for growth and persistence in the plant environment.

A priori error analysis of space–time Trefftz discontinuous Galerkin methods for wave problems

We present and analyse a space–time discontinuous Galerkin method for wave propagation problems. The special feature of the scheme is that it is a Trefftz method, namely that trial and test functions are solution of the partial differential equation to be discretised in each element of the (space–time) mesh. The method considered is a modification of the discontinuous Galerkin schemes of Kretzschmar et al. (2014) and of Monk & Richter (2005). For Maxwell’s equations in one space dimension, we prove stability of the method, quasi-optimality, best approximation estimates for polynomial Trefftz spaces and (fully explicit) error bounds with high order in the meshwidth and in the polynomial degree. The analysis framework also applies to scalar wave problems and Maxwell’s equations in higher space dimensions. Some numerical experiments demonstrate the theoretical results proved and the faster convergence compared to the non-Trefftz version of the scheme.

A psychometric analysis of reliability and validity of the index of learning styles (ILS)

Prior literature showed that Felder and Silverman learning styles model (FSLSM) was widely adopted to cater to individual styles of learners whether in traditional or Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL). In order to infer this model, the Index of Learning Styles (ILS) instrument was proposed. This research aims to analyse the soundness of this instrument in an Arabic sample. Data were integrated from different courses and years. A total of 259 engineering students participated voluntarily in the study. The reliability was analysed by applying internal construct reliability, inter-scale correlation, and total item correlation. The construct validity was also considered by running factor analysis. The overall results indicated that the reliability and validity of perception and input dimensions were moderately supported, whereas processing and understanding dimensions showed low internal-construct consistency and their items were weakly loaded in the associated constructs. Generally, the instrument needs further effort to improve its soundness. However, considering the consistency of the produced results of engineering students irrespective of cross-cultural differences, it can be adopted to diagnose learning styles.

Sodium hydroxide enhances extractability and analysis of proanthocyanidins in ensiled sainfoin (onobrychis viciifolia)

Little information exists on the effects of ensiling on condensed tannins or proanthocyanidins. The acetone–butanol–HCl assay is suitable for measuring proanthocyanidin contents in a wide range of samples, silages included, but provides limited information on proanthocyanidin composition, which is of interest for deciphering the relationships between tannins and their bioactivities in terms of animal nutrition or health. Degradation with benzyl mercaptan (thiolysis) provides information on proanthocyanidin composition, but proanthocyanidins in several sainfoin silages have proved resistant to thiolysis. We now report that a pretreatment step with sodium hydroxide prior to thiolysis was needed to enable their analysis. This alkaline treatment increased their extractability from ensiled sainfoin and facilitated especially the release of larger proanthocyanidins. Ensiling reduced assayable proanthocyanidins by 29%, but the composition of the remaining proanthocyanidins in silage resembled that of the fresh plants.

Distribution of lipids in the grain of wheat (cv Hereward) determined by lipidomic analysis of milling and pearling fractions

Lipidomic analyses of milling and pearling fractions from wheat grain were carried out to determine differences in composition which could relate to the spatial distribution of lipids in the grain. Free fatty acids and triacylglycerols were major components in all fractions, but the relative contents of polar lipids varied, particularly lysophosphatidyl choline and digalactosyldiglyceride, which were enriched in flour fractions. By contrast, minor phospholipids were enriched in bran and offal fractions. The most abundant fatty acids in the analysed acyl lipids were C16:0 and C18:2 and their combinations, including C36:4 and C34:2. Phospholipids and galactolipids have been reported to have beneficial properties for bread making, while free fatty acids and triacylglycerols are considered detrimental. The subtle differences in the compositions of fractions determined in the present study could therefore underpin the production of flour fractions with optimised compositions for different end uses.

Contrastive analysis of keywords in discourses: intégration and integration in French and German discourses about migration

This article suggests a theoretical and methodological framework for a systematic contrastive discourse analysis across languages and discourse communities through keywords, constituting a lexical approach to discourse analysis which is considered to be particularly fruitful for comparative analysis. We use a corpus assisted methodology, presuming meaning to be constituted, revealed and constrained by collocation environment. We compare the use of the keyword intégration and Integration in French and German public discourses about migration on the basis of newspaper corpora built from two French and German newspapers from 1998 to 2011. We look at the frequency of these keywords over the given time span, group collocates into thematic categories and discuss indicators of discursive salience by comparing the development of collocation profiles over time in both corpora as well as the occurrence of neologisms and compounds based on intégration/Integration.

Meeting detection in video through semantic analysis

In this paper we present a novel approach to detect people meeting. The proposed approach works by translating people behaviour from trajectory information into semantic terms. Having available a semantic model of the meeting behaviour, the event detection is performed in the semantic domain. The model is learnt employing a soft-computing clustering algorithm that combines trajectory information and motion semantic terms. A stable representation can be obtained from a series of examples. Results obtained on a series of videos with different types of meeting situations show that the proposed approach can learn a generic model that can effectively be applied on the behaviour recognition of meeting situations.

Multicamera trajectory analysis for semantic behaviour characterisation

In this paper we propose an innovative approach for behaviour recognition, from a multicamera environment, based on translating video activity into semantics. First, we fuse tracks from individual cameras through clustering employing soft computing techniques. Then, we introduce a higher-level module able to translate fused tracks into semantic information. With our proposed approach, we address the challenge set in PETS 2014 on recognising behaviours of interest around a parked vehicle, namely the abnormal behaviour of someone walking around the vehicle.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

Binding of an oligomeric ellagitannin series to bovine serum albumin (BSA): analysis by isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC)

A unique series of oligomeric ellagitannins was used to study their interactions with bovine serum albumin (BSA) by isothermal titration calorimetry. Oligomeric ellagitannins, ranging from monomer to heptamer and a mixture of octamer–undecamers, were isolated as individual pure compounds. This series allowed studying the effects of oligomer size and other structural features. The monomeric to trimeric ellagitannins deviated most from the overall trends. The interactions of ellagitannin oligomers from tetramers to octa–undecamers with BSA revealed strong similarities. In contrast to the equilibrium binding constant, enthalpy showed an increasing trend from the dimer to larger oligomers. It is likely that first the macrocyclic part of the ellagitannin binds to the defined binding sites on the protein surface and then the “flexible tail” of the ellagitannin coats the protein surface. The results highlight the importance of molecular flexibility to maximize binding between the ellagitannin and protein surfaces.

Towards more precise sugar beet management based on geostatistical analysis of spatial variability within fields

Within-field variation in sugar beet yield and quality was investigated in three commercial sugar beet fields in the east of England to identify the main associated variables and to examine the possibility of predicting yield early in the season with a view to spatially variable management of sugar beet crops. Irregular grid sampling with some purposively-located nested samples was applied. It revealed the spatial variability in each sugar beet field efficiently. In geostatistical analyses, most variograms were isotropic with moderate to strong spatial dependency indicating a significant spatial variation in sugar beet yield and associated growth and environmental variables in all directions within each field. The Kriged maps showed spatial patterns of yield variability within each field and visual association with the maps of other variables. This was confirmed by redundancy analyses and Pearson correlation coefficients. The main variables associated with yield variability were soil type, organic matter, soil moisture, weed density and canopy temperature. Kriged maps of final yield variability were strongly related to that in crop canopy cover, LAI and intercepted solar radiation early in the growing season, and the yield maps of previous crops. Therefore, yield maps of previous crops together with early assessment of sugar beet growth may make an early prediction of within-field variability in sugar beet yield possible. The Broom’s Barn sugar beet model failed to account for the spatial variability in sugar yield, but the simulation was greatly improved when corrected for early canopy development cover and when the simulated yield was adjusted for weeds and plant population. Further research to optimize inputs to maximise sugar yield should target the irrigation and fertilizing of areas within fields with low canopy cover early in the season.

Analysis Scheme in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

This paper discusses an important issue related to the implementation and interpretation of the analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter . I t i s shown that the obser vations must be treated as random variables at the analysis steps. That is, one should add random perturbations with the correct statistics to the obser vations and generate an ensemble of obser vations that then is used in updating the ensemble of model states. T raditionally , this has not been done in previous applications of the ensemble Kalman filter and, as will be shown, this has resulted in an updated ensemble with a variance that is too low . This simple modification of the analysis scheme results in a completely consistent approach if the covariance of the ensemble of model states is interpreted as the prediction error covariance, and there are no further requirements on the ensemble Kalman filter method, except for the use of an ensemble of sufficient size. Thus, there is a unique correspondence between the error statistics from the ensemble Kalman filter and the standard Kalman filter approach

Fish oil intakes providing dietary attainable levels of EPA and DHA reduces blood pressure in adults with systolic hypertension in a retrospective analysis

Background: Although a large number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have examined the impact of the n-3 (ω-3) fatty acids EPA (20:5n-3) and DHA (22:6n-3) on blood pressure and vascular function, the majority have used doses of EPA+DHA of > 3 g per d,which are unlikely to be achieved by diet manipulation. Objective: The objective was to examine, using a retrospective analysis from a multi-center RCT, the impact of recommended, dietary achievable EPA+DHA intakes on systolic and diastolic blood pressure and microvascular function in UK adults. Design: Healthy men and women (n = 312) completed a double-blind, placebo-controlled RCT consuming control oil, or fish oil providing 0.7 g or 1.8 g EPA+DHA per d in random order each for 8 wk. Fasting blood pressure and microvascular function (using Laser Doppler Iontophoresis) were assessed and plasma collected for the quantification of markers of vascular function. Participants were retrospectively genotyped for the eNOS rs1799983 variant. Results: No impact of n-3 fatty acid treatment or any treatment * eNOS genotype interactions were evident in the group as a whole for any of the clinical or biochemical outcomes. Assessment of response according to hypertension status at baseline indicated a significant (P=0.046) fish oil-induced reduction (mean 5 mmHg) in systolic blood pressure specifically in those with isolated systolic hypertension (n=31). No dose response was observed. Conclusions: These findings indicate that, in those with isolated systolic hypertension, daily doses of EPA+DHA as low as 0.7 g bring about clinically meaningful blood pressure reductions which, at a population level, would be associated with lower cardiovascular disease risk. Confirmation of findings in an RCT where participants are prospectively recruited on the basis of blood pressure status is required to draw definite conclusions. The Journal of Nutrition NUTRITION/2015/220475 Version 4

Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Dopplerradar radial winds, is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of un- correlated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast will require the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the Doppler radar radial winds that are assimilated into the Met Office high resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam correlated observation errors. By considering the new results obtained it is found that the Doppler radar radial wind error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent on both the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the use of superobservations or the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation. The large horizontal correlation length scales are, however, in part, a result of using a simplified observation operator.