Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Exploiting existing ground-based remote sensing networks to improve high-resolution weather forecasts

A new generation of high-resolution (1 km) forecast models promises to revolutionize the prediction of hazardous weather such as windstorms, flash floods, and poor air quality. To realize this promise, a dense observing network, focusing on the lower few kilometers of the atmosphere, is required to verify these new forecast models with the ultimate goal of assimilating the data. At present there are insufficient systematic observations of the vertical profiles of water vapor, temperature, wind, and aerosols; a major constraint is the absence of funding to install new networks. A recent research program financed by the European Union, tasked with addressing this lack of observations, demonstrated that the assimilation of observations from an existing wind profiler network reduces forecast errors, provided that the individual instruments are strategically located and properly maintained. Additionally, it identified three further existing European networks of instruments that are currently underexploited, but with minimal expense they could deliver quality-controlled data to national weather services in near–real time, so the data could be assimilated into forecast models. Specifically, 1) several hundred automatic lidars and ceilometers can provide backscatter profiles associated with aerosol and cloud properties and structures with 30-m vertical resolution every minute; 2) more than 20 Doppler lidars, a fairly new technology, can measure vertical and horizontal winds in the lower atmosphere with a vertical resolution of 30 m every 5 min; and 3) about 30 microwave profilers can estimate profiles of temperature and humidity in the lower few kilometers every 10 min. Examples of potential benefits from these instruments are presented.

Sampling uncertainty in gridded sea surface temperature products and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) data

Sea surface temperature (SST) data are often provided as gridded products, typically at resolutions of order 0.05 degrees from satellite observations to reduce data volume at the request of data users and facilitate comparison against other products or models. Sampling uncertainty is introduced in gridded products where the full surface area of the ocean within a grid cell cannot be fully observed because of cloud cover. In this paper we parameterise uncertainties in SST as a function of the percentage of clear-sky pixels available and the SST variability in that subsample. This parameterisation is developed from Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) data, but is applicable to all gridded L3U SST products at resolutions of 0.05-0.1 degrees, irrespective of instrument and retrieval algorithm, provided that instrument noise propagated into the SST is accounted for. We also calculate the sampling uncertainty of ~0.04 K in Global Area Coverage (GAC) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) products, using related methods.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization

The relative contribution of resolved and parameterized surface drag towards balancing the atmospheric angular momentum flux convergence (AMFC), and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and parameterization, are investigated in an atmospheric model. This sensitivity can be difficult to elucidate in free-running climate models, in which the AMFC varies with changing climatologies and, as a result, the relative contributions of surface terms balancing the AMFC also vary. While the sensitivity question has previously been addressed using short-range forecasts, we demonstrate that a nudging framework is an effective method for constraining the AMFC. The Met Office Unified Model is integrated at three horizontal resolutions ranging from 130 km (N96) to 25 km (N512) while relaxing the model’s wind and temperature fields towards the ERAinterim reanalysis within the altitude regions of maximum AMFC. This method is validated against short range forecasts and good agreement is found. These experiments are then used to assess the fidelity of the exchange between parameterized and resolved orographic torques with changes in horizontal resolution. Although the parameterized orographic torque reduces substantially with increasing horizontal resolution, there is little change in resolved orographic torque over 20N to 50N. The tendencies produced by the nudging routine indicate that the additional drag at lower horizontal resolution is excessive. When parameterized orographic blocking is removed at the coarsest of these resolutions, there is a lack of compensation, and even compensation of the opposite sense, by the boundary layer and resolved torques which is particularly pronounced over 20N to 50N. This study demonstrates that there is strong sensitivity in the behaviour of the resolved and parameterized surface drag over this region.

Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Relationships Between Species of the Genus Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) From Brazil Inferred From the Cytochrome c Oxidase I Mitochondrial Gene

Species of the genus Culex Linnaeus have been incriminated as the main vectors of lymphatic filariases and are important vectors of arboviruses, including West Nile virus. Sequences corresponding to a fragment of 478 bp of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene, which includes part of the barcode region, of 37 individuals of 17 species of genus Culex were generated to establish relationships among five subgenera, Culex, Phenacomyia, Melanoconion, Microculex, and Carrollia, and one species of the genus Lutzia that occurs in Brazil. Bayesian methods were employed for the phylogenetic analyses. Results of sequence comparisons showed that individuals identified as Culex dolosus, Culex mollis, and Culex imitator possess high intraspecific divergence (3.1, 2.3, and 3.5%, respectively) when using the Kimura two parameters model. These differences were associated either with distinct morphological characteristics of the male genitalia or larval and pupal stages, suggesting that these may represent species complexes. The Bayesian topology suggested that the genus and subgenus Culex are paraphyletic relative to Lutzia and Phenacomyia, respectively. The cytochrome c oxidase subunit I sequences may be a useful tool to both estimate phylogenetic relationships and identify morphologically similar species of the genus Culex.

Dynamic picture of the inner asteroid belt: implications for the density, size and taxonomic distributions of real objects

In this paper, we construct a dynamic portrait of the inner asteroidal belt. We use information about the distribution of test particles, which were initially placed on a perfectly rectangular grid of initial conditions, after 4.2 Myr of gravitational interactions with the Sun and five planets, from Mars to Neptune. Using the spectral analysis method introduced by Michtchenko et al., the asteroidal behaviour is illustrated in detail on the dynamical, averaged and frequency maps. On the averaged and frequency maps, we superpose information on the proper elements and proper frequencies of real objects, extracted from the data base, AstDyS, constructed by Milani and Knezevic. A comparison of the maps with the distribution of real objects allows us to detect possible dynamical mechanisms acting in the domain under study; these mechanisms are related to mean-motion and secular resonances. We note that the two- and three-body mean-motion resonances and the secular resonances (strong linear and weaker non-linear) have an important role in the diffusive transportation of the objects. Their long-lasting action, overlaid with the Yarkovsky effect, may explain many observed features of the density, size and taxonomic distributions of the asteroids.

Taxonomic and nomenclatural notes on Guatteria australis (Annonaceae)

Guatteria is the largest genus of Annonaceae, comprising ca. 300 species. The genus presents taxonomic problems, and the number of species has been overestimated. Taxonomic revision, description, comments and illustration of G. australis are presented here. As a result, 41 names have been placed in synonymy under G. australis, and three lectotypes are newly designated.

Molecular phylogeny of tribe Rhipsalideae (Cactaceae) and taxonomic implications for Schlumbergera and Hatiora

Tribe Rhipsalideae is composed of unusual epiphytic or lithophytic cacti that inhabit humid tropical and subtropical forests. Members of this tribe present a reduced vegetative body, a specialized adventitious root system, usually spineless areoles and flowers and fruits reduced in size. Despite the debate surrounding the classification of Rhipsalideae, no studies have ever attempted to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among its members or to test the monophyly of its genera using DNA sequence data; all classifications formerly proposed for this tribe have only employed morphological data. In this study, we reconstruct the phylogeny of Rhipsalideae using plastid (trnQ-rps16, rpl32-trnL, psbA-trnH) and nuclear (ITS) markers to evaluate the classifications previously proposed for the group. We also examine morphological features traditionally used to delimit genera within Rhipsalideae in light of the resulting phylogenetic trees. In total new sequences for 35 species of Rhipsalideae were produced (out of 55: 63%). The molecular phylogeny obtained comprises four main clades supporting the recognition of genera Lepismium, Rhipsalis, Hatiora and Schlumbergera. The evidence gathered indicate that a broader genus Schlumbergera, including Hatiora subg. Rhipsalidopsis, should be recognized. Consistent morphological characters rather than homoplastic features are used in order to establish a more coherent and practical classification for the group. Nomenclatural changes and a key for the identification of the genera currently included in Rhipsalideae are provided. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Taxonomic survey of Paepalanthus section Diphyomene (Eriocaulaceae)

Paepalanthus is the largest genus in Eriocaulaceae, comprising about 400 species distributed mainly throughout the Neotropics. Through phylogenetic studies it has been demonstrated that the genus is polyphyletic, although many of its infrageneric categories are monophyletic. In an attempt to clarify the nomenclature and classification of Paepalanthus, we present a taxonomic survey of Paepalanthus section Diphyomene. This group consists of 10 species restricted to South America and is defined by inflorescences being arranged in the form of a tribotryum with terminal dibotryum, a terminal basic unit and pherophylls subtending the lateral dibotrya. Further important distinguishing characteristics are dimerous flowers, pistillate flowers with dolabriform sepals, bifid stigmatic branches and absent staminodes, and staminate flowers with an elongated anthophore. We hereby propose 19 new synonyms, six lectotypifications, one new status, one neotypification and one epitypification.

Morphology and anatomy of inflorescence and inflorescence axis in Paepalanthus sect. Diphyomene Ruhland (Eriocaulaceae, Poales) and its taxonomic implications

Paepalanthus sect. Diphyomene has inflorescences arranged in umbels. The underlying bauplan seems however to be more complex and composed of several distinct subunits. Despite appearing superficially very similar, the morphology and anatomy of the inflorescences can supply useful information for the understanding of the phylogeny and taxonomy of the group. Inflorescences of Paepalanthus erectifolius, Paepalanthus flaccidus, Paepalanthus giganteus, and Paepalanthus polycladus were analyzed in regard to branching pattern and anatomy. In P. erectifolius, P. giganteus and P. polycladus the structure is a tribotryum, with terminal dibotryum, and with pherophylls bearing lateral dibotrya. In P. flaccidus, the inflorescence is a pleiobotryum, with terminal subunit, and without pherophylls. Secondary inflorescences may occur in all species without regular pattern. Especially when grown in sites without a pronounced seasonality, the distinction between enrichment zone (part of the same inflorescence) and new inflorescences may be obscured. The main anatomical features supplying diagnostic and phylogenetic information are as follows: (a) in the elongated axis, the thickness of the epidermal cell walls and the cortex size; (b) in the bracts, the quantity of parenchyma cells (c) in the scapes, the shape and the presence of a pith tissue. Therefore, P. sect. Diphyomene can be divided in two groups; group A is represented by P. erectifolius, P. giganteus and P. polycladus, and group B is represented by P. flaccidus. The differentiation is based in both, inflorescence structure and anatomy. Group A presents a life cycle and anatomical features similar to species of Actinocephalus. Molecular trees also point that these two groups are closely related. However, inflorescence morphology and blooming sequence are different. Species of group B present an inflorescence structure and anatomical features shared with many genera and species in Eriocaulaceae. The available molecular and morphology based phylogenies still do not allow a precise allocation of the group in the bulk of basal species of Paepalanthus collocated in P. sect. Variabiles. The characters described and used here supply however important information towards this goal. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Stigmatic surface in the Vochysiaceae: reproductive and taxonomic implications

(Stigmatic surface, reproductive biology and taxonomy of the Vochysiaceae). The Vochysiaceae are Neotropical trees and shrubs, common in the savanna areas in Central Brazil (Cerrados). The family has been traditionally divided into two tribes: Erismeae, with three genera, and Vochysieae, with five genera. We investigated the stigmatic surface of six Vochysiaceae species, belonging to four genera of Vochysieae: Vochysia, Salvertia, Callisthene and Qualea. Flowers and buds at different developmental stages were collected. Morphological features were observed on fresh material and stigmatic receptivity was inferred based on esterasic activity. Pistils were fixed and embedded in paraplast and sectioned on a rotary microtome; the sections were stained before histological analysis. Stigmas of open flowers were also observed by scanning electron microscopy. Stigmas of all species were wet and showed esterasic activity at pre-anthesis and anthesis stages. Stigmatic surface was continuous with transmitting tissue of glandular nature. Vochysia and Salvertia stigmatic surfaces were formed by multicelular uniseriate hairs, and species of the remaining genera showed papillate surface. The exudate over mature stigmas in all species flowed without rupture of stigmatic Surface and pollen tubes grew down between hairs or papillae. Differences on the stigmatic surface agreed with a phylogenetic reconstruction that separated two clades and indicated that Vochysieae is not monophyletic. Stigmatic features could not be associated with pollination and breeding systems.

Foliar cuticular alkanes of Camarea (Malpighiaceae) and their taxonomic significance

Camarea is a South-American endemic genus comprising eight species. In the present work n-alkanes from foliar cuticular waxes of 23 specimens, representing seven species of Camarea were analyzed, aiming at establishing interspecific affinities and evaluating the usefulness of n-alkane distribution as species characteristic. The sampling included also specimens of Peixotoa rericulata and Janusia guaronitica (both Malpighiaceae). The results were used to obtain a phenogram indicating chemical affinities between species. The results are in agreement with morphological similarities among some Camarea species. Intraspecific variability was small, suggesting that n-alkane distribution may be useful for species characterization and establishment of links among Camarea species. The results support the recognition of Camarea triphylla as a synonym of Camarea axillaris and are not coherent with a hybrid condition of a population exhibiting morphological characteristics combining Camarea affinis and Camarea hirsuta, suggesting instead that the individuals analyzed belong either to Camarea hirsuta or a close species. Distribution of n-alkanes is inadequate to distinguish among Malpighiaceae genera: P reticulata has n-alkane distribution similar to several Cumarea species. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphology, molecular phylogeny, and taxonomic inconsistencies in the study of Bradypus sloths (Pilosa: Bradypodidae)

This study focuses on morphological and molecular data analyses, misidentifications, and phylogenetic inconsistencies regarding Bradypus variegatus (the brown-throated sloth) and B. tridactylus (the pale-throated sloth). Misidentifications were recorded on 75 of 313 museum specimens of Bradypus. Almost 90% of the misidentified specimens were B. variegatus from north-central Brazil, erroneously attributed to B. tridactylus. These misidentified specimens are reported in taxonomic reviews as the southernmost records of B. tridactylus. A history of confusing nomenclature regarding sloth species exists, and these particular misidentifications could be attributable to the similarity in face and throat color between B. variegatus from north-central Brazil and B. tridactylus. The molecular phylogeny of morphologically confirmed sloth specimens exhibits 2 monophyletic lineages representing B. variegatus and B. tridactylus. The split time between these 2 lineages was estimated at 6 million years ago (mya), contradicting previous studies that estimated this divergence to be 0.4 mya. Taxonomic inconsistencies were detected when comparing the molecular phylogeny to previously published DNA sequences ascribed to B. tridactylus. Misidentification or introgression could underlie such phylogenetic incongruities. Regardless of their causes, these discrepancies lead to misstatements regarding geographic distribution, phylogeny, and taxonomy of B. variegatus and B. tridactylus.