993 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction
Resumo:
Erosion is deleterious because it reduces the soil's productivity capacity for growing crops and causes sedimentation and water pollution problems. Surface and buried crop residue, as well as live and dead plant roots, play an important role in erosion control. An efficient way to assess the effectiveness of such materials in erosion reduction is by means of decomposition constants as used within the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation - RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor - PLU. This was investigated using simulated rainfall on a 0.12 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study area had been covered by native grass pasture for about fifteen years. By the middle of March 1996, the sod was mechanically mowed and the crop residue removed from the field. Late in April 1996, the sod was chemically desiccated with herbicide and, about one month later, the following treatments were established and evaluated for sod biomass decomposition and soil erosion, from June 1996 to May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) and (b) soil without tillage, with surface residue and dead roots; (c) soil without tillage, with dead roots only; (d) soil tilled conventionally every two-and-half months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue; and (e) soil tilled conventionally every six months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue. Simulated rainfall was applied with a rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at an intensity of 63.5 mm h-1 for 90 min, eight to nine times during the experimental period (about every two-and-half months). Surface and subsurface sod biomass amounts were measured before each rainfall test along with the erosion measurements of runoff rate, sediment concentration in runoff, soil loss rate, and total soil loss. Non-linear regression analysis was performed using an exponential and a power model. Surface sod biomass decomposition was better depicted by the exponential model, while subsurface sod biomass was by the power model. Subsurface sod biomass decomposed faster and more than surface sod biomass, with dead roots in untilled soil without residue on the surface decomposing more than dead roots in untilled soil with surface residue. Tillage type and frequency did not appreciably influence subsurface sod biomass decomposition. Soil loss rates increased greatly with both surface sod biomass decomposition and decomposition of subsurface sod biomass in the conventionally tilled soil, but they were minimally affected by subsurface sod biomass decomposition in the untilled soil. Runoff rates were little affected by the studied treatments. Dead roots plus incorporated residues were effective in reducing erosion in the conventionally tilled soil, while consolidation of the soil surface was important in no-till. The residual effect of the turned soil on erosion diminished gradually with time and ceased after two years.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: This study explored factors associated with self-reported bullying among adolescents in a sub-Saharan country. METHODS: A cross-sectional sample of adolescents (n = 1,427) in the Seychelles was drawn from the Global School-based Student Health Survey. Bullied adolescents were compared with non-bullied adolescents with respect to several sociodemographic factors. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: Within a 30 day period, 38.8% of adolescents reported being bullied. Bullied youths were more likely to be depressed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.63; confidence intervals [CI] = 1.27-1.07) and socially deprived (aOR = 1.85; CI = 1.30-2.61). Being older (aOR = .83; CI = .77-.90) and having close friends (aOR = .53; CI = .31-.91) were protective factors. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of bullying in the Seychelles is high, and social correlates are similar to those in industrialized settings. More research is needed to examine bullying patterns outside the school environment.
Resumo:
The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelationbetween variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics
Resumo:
XVII Convocatòria d’ajuts a accions de cooperació - 2009GRECDH – UPC. Improving Energy Access In Rural sub- Saharan Africa. O-006/09. Informe
Resumo:
ABSTRACT The role of chromosomal rearrangements in the speciation process is much debated and many theoretical models have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer extraordinary opportunities to study the relationship between chromosomal variation and speciation. Indeed, this group of morphologically very similar species received a great deal of attention due to its karyotypic variability, which is mainly attributed to Robertsonian fusions. To explore the impact of karyotypic changes on genetic differentiation, we first studied the relationship between genetic and karyotypic structure among Alpine species and among chromosome races of the S. araneus group using Bayesian admixture analyses. The results of these analyses confirmed the taxonomic status of the studied species even though introgression can still be detected between species. Moreover, the strong spatial sub-structure highlighted the role of historical factors (e.g. geographical isolation) on genetic structure. Next, we studied gene flow at the chromosome level to address the question of the impact of chromosomal rearrangements on genetic differentiation. We used flow sorted chromosomes from three different karyotypic taxa of the S. araneus group to map microsatellite markers at the chromosóme arm level. We have been able to map 24 markers and to show that the karyotypic organisation of these taxa is well conserved, which suggests that these markers can be used for further inter-taxa studies. A general prediction of chromosomal speciation models is that genetic differentiation between two taxa should be larger across rearranged chromosomes than across chromosomes common to both taxa. We combined two approaches using mapped microsatellites to test this prediction. First, we studied the genetic differentiation among five shrew taxa placed at different evolutionary levels (i.e. within and among species). In this large scale study, we detected an overall significant difference in genetic structure between rearranged vs. common chromosomes. Moreover, this effect varied among pairwise comparisons, which allowed us to differentiate the role of the karyotypic complexity of hybrids and of the evolutionary divergence between taxa. Secondly, we compared the levels of gene flow measured across common vs. rearranged chromosomes in two karyotypically different hybrid zones (strong vs. low complexity of hybrids), which show similar levels of genetic structure. We detected a significantly stronger genetic structure across rearranged chromosomes in the hybrid zone showing the highest level of hybrid complexity. The large variance observed among loci suggested that other factors, such as the position of markers within the chromosome, also certainly affects genetic structure. In conclusion, our results strongly support the role of chromosomal rearrangements in the reproductive barrier and suggest their importance in speciation process of the S. araneus group. RESUME Le rôle des réarrangements chromosomiques dans les processus de spéciation est fortement débattu et de nombreux modèles théoriques ont été développés sur le sujet. Les musaraignes du groupe Sorex araneus présentent de nombreuses opportunités pour étudier les relations entre les variations chromosomiques et la spéciation. En effet, ce groupe d'espèces morphologiquement très proches a attiré l'attention des chercheurs en raison de sa variabilité caryotypique principalement attribuée à des fusions Robertsoniennes. Pour explorer l'impact des changements caryotypiques sur la différenciation génétique, nous avons tout d'abord étudié les relations entre la structure génétique et caryotypique de races chromosomiques et d'espèces alpine du groupe S. araneus en utilisant des analyses Bayesiennes d' « admixture ». Les résultats de ces analyses ont confirmé le statut taxonomique des espèces étudiées bien que nous ayons détecté de l'introgression entre espèces. L'observation d'une sous structure spatiale relativement forte souligne l'importance des facteurs historiques (telle que l'isolation géographique) sur la structure génétique de ce groupe. Ensuite, nous avons étudié le flux de gène au niveau des chromosomes pour aborder de manière directe la question de l'impact des réarrangements chromosomiques sur la différenciation génétique. En conséquence, nous avons utilisé des tris de chromosomes de trois taxons du groupe S. araneus pour localiser des marqueurs microsatellites au niveau du bras chromosomique. Au cours de cette étude, nous avons pu localiser 24 marqueurs et montrer une forte conservation dans l'organisation du caryotype de ces taxa. Ce résultat suggère que leur utilisation est appropriée pour des études entre taxa. Une prédiction générale à tous les modèles de spéciation chromosomique correspond à la plus grande différenciation génétique des chromosomes réarrangés que des chromosomes communs. Nous avons combiné deux approches utilisant des microsatellites localisés au niveau du bras chromosomique pour tester cette prédiction. Premièrement, nous avons étudié la différenciation génétique entre cinq taxa du groupe S. araneus se trouvant à des niveaux évolutifs différents (i.e. à l'intérieur et entre espèce). Au cours de cette étude, nous avons détecté une différenciation globale significativement plus élevée sur les chromosomes réarrangés. Cet effet varie entre les comparaisons, ce qui nous a permis de souligner le rôle de la complexité caryotypique des hybrides et du niveau de divergence évolutive entre taxa. Deuxièmement, nous avons comparé le flux de gènes des chromosomes communs et réarrangés dans deux zones d'hybridation caryotypiquement différentes (forte vs. Faible complexité des hybrides) mais présentant un niveau de différenciation génétique similaire. Ceci nous a permis de détecter une structure génétique significativement plus élevée sur les chromosomes réarrangés au centre de la zone d'hybridation présentant la plus grande complexité caryotypic. La forte variance observée entre loci souligne en outre le fait que d'autres facteurs, tel que la position du marqueur sur le chromosome, affectent probablement aussi la structure génétique mesurée. En conclusion, nos résultats supportent fortement le rôle des réarrangements chromosomiques dans la barrière reproductive entre espèces ainsi que leur importance dans les processus de spéciation des musaraignes du groupe S. araneus.
Resumo:
Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.
Resumo:
Avaliou-se a aptidão para reflorestamento das terras das partes não edificadas da vertente norte do maciço da Tijuca, sub-bacias dos canais do Mangue e do Cunha, com o intuito de subsidiar ações do Programa Mutirão Reflorestamento da Secretaria Municipal de Meio Ambiente do Rio de Janeiro. A avaliação da aptidão das terras estimou graus de limitação dos parâmetros: deficiência de nutrientes, deficiência de água, susceptibilidade à erosão e impedimentos ao manejo. Estes graus de limitação foram estimados para os componentes das unidades de mapeamento de solos, considerando as informações de solos e paisagens do mapeamento existente. Para a digitalização e organização das informações geradas, foram utilizados sistemas de informações geográficas. As seguintes classes de aptidão para reflorestamento foram determinadas: 11,2 % de Regular, 81,5 % de Restrita e 7,3 % de Inapta. A declividade representa o fator limitante de maior importância para as terras da classe de aptidão restrita, seguida da presença de rochosidade.
Resumo:
Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.
Resumo:
In diabetes mellitus, it is expected to see a common, mainly sensitive, distal symmetrical polyneuropathy (DPN) involving a large proportion of diabetic patients according to known risk factors. Several other diabetic peripheral neuropathies are recognized, such as dysautonomia and multifocal neuropathies including lumbosacral radiculoplexus and oculomotor palsies. In this review, general aspects of DPN and other diabetic neuropathies are examined, and it is discussed why and how the general practionner has to perform a yearly examination. At the present time, some consensuses emerge to ask help from neurologist when faced to other forms of peripheral neuropathies than distal symmetrical DPN.
Resumo:
PURPOSE: To explore whether triaxial accelerometric measurements can be utilized to accurately assess speed and incline of running in free-living conditions. METHODS: Body accelerations during running were recorded at the lower back and at the heel by a portable data logger in 20 human subjects, 10 men, and 10 women. After parameterizing body accelerations, two neural networks were designed to recognize each running pattern and calculate speed and incline. Each subject ran 18 times on outdoor roads at various speeds and inclines; 12 runs were used to calibrate the neural networks whereas the 6 other runs were used to validate the model. RESULTS: A small difference between the estimated and the actual values was observed: the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) was 0.12 m x s(-1) for speed and 0.014 radiant (rad) (or 1.4% in absolute value) for incline. Multiple regression analysis allowed accurate prediction of speed (RMSE = 0.14 m x s(-1)) but not of incline (RMSE = 0.026 rad or 2.6% slope). CONCLUSION: Triaxial accelerometric measurements allows an accurate estimation of speed of running and incline of terrain (the latter with more uncertainty). This will permit the validation of the energetic results generated on the treadmill as applied to more physiological unconstrained running conditions.
Resumo:
Sarcomas are heterogeneous and aggressive mesenchymal tumors. Histological grading has so far been the best predictor for metastasis-free survival, but it has several limitations, such as moderate reproducibility and poor prognostic value for some histological types. To improve patient grading, we performed genomic and expression profiling in a training set of 183 sarcomas and established a prognostic gene expression signature, complexity index in sarcomas (CINSARC), composed of 67 genes related to mitosis and chromosome management. In a multivariate analysis, CINSARC predicts metastasis outcome in the training set and in an independent 127 sarcomas validation set. It is superior to the Fédération Francaise des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer grading system in determining metastatic outcome for sarcoma patients. Furthermore, it also predicts outcome for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), breast carcinomas and lymphomas. Application of the signature will permit more selective use of adjuvant therapies for people with sarcomas, leading to decreased iatrogenic morbidity and improved outcomes for such individuals.