Assessing Decision Making Strategies In Construction Management By Using A Schedule-Based Simulation Framework

During the project, managers encounter numerous contingencies and are faced with the challenging task of making decisions that will effectively keep the project on track. This task is very challenging because construction projects are non-prototypical and the processes are irreversible. Therefore, it is critical to apply a methodological approach to develop a few alternative management decision strategies during the planning phase, which can be deployed to manage alternative scenarios resulting from expected and unexpected disruptions in the as-planned schedule. Such a methodology should have the following features but are missing in the existing research: (1) looking at the effects of local decisions on the global project outcomes, (2) studying how a schedule responds to decisions and disruptive events because the risk in a schedule is a function of the decisions made, (3) establishing a method to assess and improve the management decision strategies, and (4) developing project specific decision strategies because each construction project is unique and the lessons from a particular project cannot be easily applied to projects that have different contexts. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve sequences of decisions for the execution stage. The contribution of this research is the introduction of applying decision strategies to manage a project and the establishment of iterative methodology to continuously assess and improve decision strategies and schedules. The project managers or schedulers can implement the methodology to develop and identify schedules accompanied by suitable decision strategies to manage a project at the planning stage. The developed methodology also lays the foundation for an algorithm towards continuously automatically generating satisfactory schedule and strategies through the construction life of a project. Different from studying isolated daily decisions, the proposed framework introduces the notion of {em decision strategies} to manage construction process. A decision strategy is a sequence of interdependent decisions determined by resource allocation policies such as labor, material, equipment, and space policies. The schedule-based simulation framework consists of two parts, experiment design and result assessment. The core of the experiment design is the establishment of an iterative method to test and improve decision strategies and schedules, which is based on the introduction of decision strategies and the development of a schedule-based simulation testbed. The simulation testbed used is Interactive Construction Decision Making Aid (ICDMA). ICDMA has an emulator to duplicate the construction process that has been previously developed and a random event generator that allows the decision-maker to respond to disruptions in the emulation. It is used to study how the schedule responds to these disruptions and the corresponding decisions made over the duration of the project while accounting for cascading impacts and dependencies between activities. The dissertation is organized into two parts. The first part presents the existing research, identifies the departure points of this work, and develops a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve decision strategies. In the second part, the proposed schedule-based simulation framework is applied to investigate specific research problems.

Development and simulation of DSP filters for transformer differential protection / by Oskar Reynisson.

Transformer protection is one of the most challenging applications within the power system protective relay field. Transformers with a capacity rating exceeding 10 MVA are usually protected using differential current relays. Transformers are an aging and vulnerable bottleneck in the present power grid; therefore, quick fault detection and corresponding transformer de-energization is the key element in minimizing transformer damage. Present differential current relays are based on digital signal processing (DSP). They combine DSP phasor estimation and protective-logic-based decision making. The limitations of existing DSP-based differential current relays must be identified to determine the best protection options for sensitive and quick fault detection. The development, implementation, and evaluation of a DSP differential current relay is detailed. The overall goal is to make fault detection faster without compromising secure and safe transformer operation. A detailed background on the DSP differential current relay is provided. Then different DSP phasor estimation filters are implemented and evaluated based on their ability to extract desired frequency components from the measured current signal quickly and accurately. The main focus of the phasor estimation evaluation is to identify the difference between using non-recursive and recursive filtering methods. Then the protective logic of the DSP differential current relay is implemented and required settings made in accordance with transformer application. Finally, the DSP differential current relay will be evaluated using available transformer models within the ATP simulation environment. Recursive filtering methods were found to have significant advantage over non-recursive filtering methods when evaluated individually and when applied in the DSP differential relay. Recursive filtering methods can be up to 50% faster than non-recursive methods, but can cause false trip due to overshoot if the only objective is speed. The relay sensitivity is however independent of filtering method and depends on the settings of the relay’s differential characteristics (pickup threshold and percent slope).

Two dimensional Lattice Boltzmann simulation of fluid flow through an idealized micro-structure of disordered media

This technical report discusses the application of Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) in the fluid flow simulation through porous filter-wall of disordered media. The diesel particulate filter (DPF) is an example of disordered media. DPF is developed as a cutting edge technology to reduce harmful particulate matter in the engine exhaust. Porous filter-wall of DPF traps these soot particles in the after-treatment of the exhaust gas. To examine the phenomena inside the DPF, researchers are looking forward to use the Lattice Boltzmann Method as a promising alternative simulation tool. The lattice Boltzmann method is comparatively a newer numerical scheme and can be used to simulate fluid flow for single-component single-phase, single-component multi-phase. It is also an excellent method for modelling flow through disordered media. The current work focuses on a single-phase fluid flow simulation inside the porous micro-structure using LBM. Firstly, the theory concerning the development of LBM is discussed. LBM evolution is always related to Lattice gas Cellular Automata (LGCA), but it is also shown that this method is a special discretized form of the continuous Boltzmann equation. Since all the simulations are conducted in two-dimensions, the equations developed are in reference with D2Q9 (two-dimensional 9-velocity) model. The artificially created porous micro-structure is used in this study. The flow simulations are conducted by considering air and CO2 gas as fluids. The numerical model used in this study is explained with a flowchart and the coding steps. The numerical code is constructed in MATLAB. Different types of boundary conditions and their importance is discussed separately. Also the equations specific to boundary conditions are derived. The pressure and velocity contours over the porous domain are studied and recorded. The results are compared with the published work. The permeability values obtained in this study can be fitted to the relation proposed by Nabovati [8], and the results are in excellent agreement within porosity range of 0.4 to 0.8.

ACETYL RADICAL IN TOBACCO SMOKE: DETECTION, QUANTIFICATION AND SIMULATION

Free radicals are present in cigarette smoke and can have a negative effect on human health by attacking lipids, nucleic acids, proteins and other biologically important species. However, because of the complexity of the tobacco smoke system and the dynamic nature of radicals, little is known about the identity of the radicals, and debate continues on the mechanisms by which those radicals are produced. In this study, acetyl radicals were trapped from the gas phase using 3-amino-2, 2, 5, 5- tetramethyl-proxyl (3AP) on solid support to form stable 3AP adducts for later analysis by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), mass spectrometry/tandem mass spectrometry (MS-MS/MS) and liquid chromatography- mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Simulations of acetyl radical generation were performed using Matlab and the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) programs. A range of 10- 150 nmol/cigarette of acetyl radical was measured from gas phase tobacco smoke of both commerial and research cigarettes under several different smoking conditions. More radicals were detected from the puff smoking method compared to continuous flow sampling. Approximately twice as many acetyl radicals were trapped when a GF/F particle filter was placed before the trapping zone. Computational simulations show that NO/NO2 reacts with isoprene, initiating chain reactions to produce a hydroxyl radical, which abstracts hydrogen from acetaldehyde to generate acetyl radical. With initial concentrations of NO, acetaldehyde, and isoprene in a real-world cigarette smoke scenario, these mechanisms can account for the full amount of acetyl radical detected experimentally. This study contributes to the overall understanding of the free radical generation in gas phase cigarette smoke.

OUT-OF-STEP DETECTION BASED ON ZUBOV’S APPROXIMATION BOUNDARY METHOD

Disturbances in power systems may lead to electromagnetic transient oscillations due to mismatch of mechanical input power and electrical output power. Out-of-step conditions in power system are common after the disturbances where the continuous oscillations do not damp out and the system becomes unstable. Existing out-of-step detection methods are system specific as extensive off-line studies are required for setting of relays. Most of the existing algorithms also require network reduction techniques to apply in multi-machine power systems. To overcome these issues, this research applies Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) data and Zubov’s approximation stability boundary method, which is a modification of Lyapunov’s direct method, to develop a novel out-of-step detection algorithm. The proposed out-of-step detection algorithm is tested in a Single Machine Infinite Bus system, IEEE 3-machine 9-bus, and IEEE 10-machine 39-bus systems. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is capable of detecting out-of-step conditions in multi-machine power systems without using network reduction techniques and a comparative study with an existing blinder method demonstrate that the decision times are faster. The simulation case studies also demonstrate that the proposed algorithm does not depend on power system parameters, hence it avoids the need of extensive off-line system studies as needed in other algorithms.

STOCHASTIC CHARGE TRANSPORT IN MULTI-ISLAND SINGLE-ELECTRON TUNNELING DEVICES

The physics of the operation of singe-electron tunneling devices (SEDs) and singe-electron tunneling transistors (SETs), especially of those with multiple nanometer-sized islands, has remained poorly understood in spite of some intensive experimental and theoretical research. This computational study examines the current-voltage (IV) characteristics of multi-island single-electron devices using a newly developed multi-island transport simulator (MITS) that is based on semi-classical tunneling theory and kinetic Monte Carlo simulation. The dependence of device characteristics on physical device parameters is explored, and the physical mechanisms that lead to the Coulomb blockade (CB) and Coulomb staircase (CS) characteristics are proposed. Simulations using MITS demonstrate that the overall IV characteristics in a device with a random distribution of islands are a result of a complex interplay among those factors that affect the tunneling rates that are fixed a priori (e.g. island sizes, island separations, temperature, gate bias, etc.), and the evolving charge state of the system, which changes as the source-drain bias (VSD) is changed. With increasing VSD, a multi-island device has to overcome multiple discrete energy barriers (up-steps) before it reaches the threshold voltage (Vth). Beyond Vth, current flow is rate-limited by slow junctions, which leads to the CS structures in the IV characteristic. Each step in the CS is characterized by a unique distribution of island charges with an associated distribution of tunneling probabilities. MITS simulation studies done on one-dimensional (1D) disordered chains show that longer chains are better suited for switching applications as Vth increases with increasing chain length. They are also able to retain CS structures at higher temperatures better than shorter chains. In sufficiently disordered 2D systems, we demonstrate that there may exist a dominant conducting path (DCP) for conduction, which makes the 2D device behave as a quasi-1D device. The existence of a DCP is sensitive to the device structure, but is robust with respect to changes in temperature, gate bias, and VSD. A side gate in 1D and 2D systems can effectively control Vth. We argue that devices with smaller island sizes and narrower junctions may be better suited for practical applications, especially at room temperature.

Hierarchical Markov Random Fields Applied to Model Soft Tissue Deformations on Graphics Hardware

Many methodologies dealing with prediction or simulation of soft tissue deformations on medical image data require preprocessing of the data in order to produce a different shape representation that complies with standard methodologies, such as mass–spring networks, finite element method s (FEM). On the other hand, methodologies working directly on the image space normally do not take into account mechanical behavior of tissues and tend to lack physics foundations driving soft tissue deformations. This chapter presents a method to simulate soft tissue deformations based on coupled concepts from image analysis and mechanics theory. The proposed methodology is based on a robust stochastic approach that takes into account material properties retrieved directly from the image, concepts from continuum mechanics and FEM. The optimization framework is solved within a hierarchical Markov random field (HMRF) which is implemented on the graphics processor unit (GPU See Graphics processing unit ).

Technical throughput of material flow systems required to achieve design flow – determined by simulation with aniteration algorithm

This article deals with complex material flow systems and series connections of conveyor and op-erating elements. These can be characterised by a specific availability. The thus resultant overall availabil-ity of necessary “technical throughput” of the individual elements for the achievement of a specified throughput. When the conveyor and operating elements are subjected to a stochastic distribution, the interposition of buffers is necessary but these can also lead to a reduction of the necessary throughput due faults. The system behaviour of complex installations can only be investigated by simulation. The parame-ter changes required in order to achieve specific target values can also be determined by simulation runs in iteration loops.

Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming and Simulation Approach to the Development of Valid and Realistic Master Production Schedule

Master production schedule (MPS) plays an important role in an integrated production planning system. It converts the strategic planning defined in a production plan into the tactical operation execution. The MPS is also known as a tool for top management to control over manufacture resources and becomes input of the downstream planning levels such as material requirement planning (MRP) and capacity requirement planning (CRP). Hence, inappropriate decision on the MPS development may lead to infeasible execution, which ultimately causes poor delivery performance. One must ensure that the proposed MPS is valid and realistic for implementation before it is released to real manufacturing system. In practice, where production environment is stochastic in nature, the development of MPS is no longer simple task. The varying processing time, random event such as machine failure is just some of the underlying causes of uncertainty that may be hardly addressed at planning stage so that in the end the valid and realistic MPS is tough to be realized. The MPS creation problem becomes even more sophisticated as decision makers try to consider multi-objectives; minimizing inventory, maximizing customer satisfaction, and maximizing resource utilization. This study attempts to propose a methodology for MPS creation which is able to deal with those obstacles. This approach takes into account uncertainty and makes trade off among conflicting multi-objectives at the same time. It incorporates fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) and discrete event simulation (DES) for MPS development.

Simulation von Förderprozessen bei Vibrationsförderanlagen

Die erzielbare Fördergeschwindigkeit bei Vibrationsförderern hängt maßgeblich von der Bewegungsfunktion des Förderorganes ab. Für die gezielte Simulation dieser Anlagen mittels der diskreten Elemente Methode (DEM) ist es notwendig die geometrisch vernetzen Förderorgannachbildungen mit praxisrelevanten Bewegungsfunktionen zu beaufschlagen. Der Artikel beschreibt die Einbindung dieser Bewegungsfunktionen in die quellenoffene DEM-Software LIGGGHTS. Während des Simulationsprozesses wird eine Bewegung vernetzter CAD-Modelle durch trigonometrische Reihen ermöglicht.

Integration of Truncated Distributions in Exponential Family with Simulation Models of Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Truncated distributions of the exponential family have great influence in the simulation models. This paper discusses the truncated Weibull distribution specifically. The truncation of the distribution is achieved by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method or combined with the expectation and variance expressions. After the fitting of distribution, the goodness-of-fit tests (the Chi-Square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) are executed to rule out the rejected hypotheses. Finally the distributions are integrated in various simulation models, e. g. shipment consolidation model, to compare the influence of truncated and original versions of Weibull distribution on the model.

Simulation der peristaltischen Förderung von Stückgütern als Schüttgut

Im Beitrag wird ein neuartiges Förderprinzip zur federnden Aufnahme und zum Transport von massenhaft anfallenden Paketstrukturen vorgestellt. Das Förderprinzip beruht auf einem flächigen Tragmittel in Form eines veränderbaren, elastischen Verbundes von kleinskaligen Fördermodulen. Das konzipierte Transportprinzip mit peristaltischen Eigenschaften soll entstehende Staus der Pakete schnell auflösen und eine dedizierte Steuerung von Teilmengen zulassen, um den erforderlichen Durchsatz innerhalb eines Materialflusssystems zu erreichen. Diese Lösung ermöglicht eine sinnvolle Verknüpfung von Wirkprinzipien der Schüttgut- und Stückgutförderung zur Aufnahme und Fortbewegung von Pakete als Schüttgut. Die Grundfunktionalität des Förderkonzepts wird durch die numerische Simulation auf Basis der Diskrete Elemente Methode sowie der Mehrkörpersimulation überprüft.

An efficient simulation algorithm for the generalized von Mises distribution of order two

In this article we propose an exact efficient simulation algorithm for the generalized von Mises circular distribution of order two. It is an acceptance-rejection algorithm with a piecewise linear envelope based on the local extrema and the inflexion points of the generalized von Mises density of order two. We show that these points can be obtained from the roots of polynomials and degrees four and eight, which can be easily obtained by the methods of Ferrari and Weierstrass. A comparative study with the von Neumann acceptance-rejection, with the ratio-of-uniforms and with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms shows that this new method is generally the most efficient.

Stereological Modelling of Random Particles

Stochastic models for three-dimensional particles have many applications in applied sciences. Lévy–based particle models are a flexible approach to particle modelling. The structure of the random particles is given by a kernel smoothing of a Lévy basis. The models are easy to simulate but statistical inference procedures have not yet received much attention in the literature. The kernel is not always identifiable and we suggest one approach to remedy this problem. We propose a method to draw inference about the kernel from data often used in local stereology and study the performance of our approach in a simulation study.

Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.