943 resultados para spatio-temporal models


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OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. RESULTADOS: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. CONCLUSÃO: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia.

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Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. Resultados: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. Conclusão: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia

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Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs that inhibit translation of target genes by binding to their mRNAs. The expression of numerous brain-specific miRNAs with a high degree of temporal and spatial specificity suggests that miRNAs play an important role in gene regulation in health and disease. Here we investigate the time course gene expression profile of miR-1, -16, and -206 in mouse dorsal root ganglion (DRG), and spinal cord dorsal horn under inflammatory and neuropathic pain conditions as well as following acute noxious stimulation. Results: Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction analyses showed that the mature form of miR-1, -16 and -206, is expressed in DRG and the dorsal horn of the spinal cord. Moreover, CFA-induced inflammation significantly reduced miRs-1 and -16 expression in DRG whereas miR-206 was downregulated in a time dependent manner. Conversely, in the spinal dorsal horn all three miRNAs monitored were upregulated. After sciatic nerve partial ligation, miR-1 and -206 were downregulated in DRG with no change in the spinal dorsal horn. On the other hand, axotomy increases the relative expression of miR-1, -16, and 206 in a time-dependent fashion while in the dorsal horn there was a significant downregulation of miR-1. Acute noxious stimulation with capsaicin also increased the expression of miR-1 and -16 in DRG cells but, on the other hand, in the spinal dorsal horn only a high dose of capsaicin was able to downregulate miR-206 expression. Conclusions: Our results indicate that miRNAs may participate in the regulatory mechanisms of genes associated with the pathophysiology of chronic pain as well as the nociceptive processing following acute noxious stimulation. We found substantial evidence that miRNAs are differentially regulated in DRG and the dorsal horn of the spinal cord under different pain states. Therefore, miRNA expression in the nociceptive system shows not only temporal and spatial specificity but is also stimulus-dependent.

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Context. The distribution of chemical abundances and their variation with time are important tools for understanding the chemical evolution of galaxies. In particular, the study of chemical evolution models can improve our understanding of the basic assumptions made when modelling our Galaxy and other spirals. Aims. We test a standard chemical evolution model for spiral disks in the Local Universe and study the influence of a threshold gas density and different efficiencies in the star formation rate (SFR) law on radial gradients of abundance, gas, and SFR. The model is then applied to specific galaxies. Methods. We adopt a one-infall chemical evolution model where the Galactic disk forms inside-out by means of infall of gas, and we test different thresholds and efficiencies in the SFR. The model is scaled to the disk properties of three Local Group galaxies (the Milky Way, M31 and M33) by varying its dependence on the star formation efficiency and the timescale for the infall of gas onto the disk. Results. Using this simple model, we are able to reproduce most of the observed constraints available in the literature for the studied galaxies. The radial oxygen abundance gradients and their time evolution are studied in detail. The present day abundance gradients are more sensitive to the threshold than to other parameters, while their temporal evolutions are more dependent on the chosen SFR efficiency. A variable efficiency along the galaxy radius can reproduce the present day gas distribution in the disk of spirals with prominent arms. The steepness in the distribution of stellar surface density differs from massive to lower mass disks, owing to the different star formation histories. Conclusions. The most massive disks seem to have evolved faster (i.e., with more efficient star formation) than the less massive ones, thus suggesting a downsizing in star formation for spirals. The threshold and the efficiency of star formation play a very important role in the chemical evolution of spiral disks. For instance, an efficiency varying with radius can be used to regulate the star formation. The oxygen abundance gradient can steepen or flatten in time depending on the choice of this parameter.

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The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

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The present study aimed to determine the richness, occurrence constancy, reproductive modes. standard of abundance distribution, season of vocalization and to test correlation among climatic variables and activity of vocalization of anurans in a region of the Pampa Biome, Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State. During the period of Novernber/2001 to October/2002 monthly collections were carried out utilizing the `survey at breeding site` method and examination of specimens kept in the Colecao Herpetologica do Setor de Zoologia da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (ZUFSM). Tire Occurrence of 25 species of anurans was recorded. The anurofauna recorded represents 30% of the species known to Occur in Rio Grande do Sul, and comprises species generally associated with grasslands in this state and neighboring countries. Four reproductive modes were recorded: mode 1 (14 species: 58.3%) mode 11 and 30 (9 species` 37.5%) and mode 24 (1 species; 4.2%). The low diversification of reproductive modes is likely related to the homogeneity of the grassland habitat. Most species were constant or accessory in the Study area and the species abundance distribution patterns fit in the Broken Stick and Log-normal models. characterized by homogeneity of species abundance distribution. Most species showed great plasticity in habitat. but few were plastic in vocalization sites use. There was a weak positive correlation between species richness and precipitation. There was also a weak positive correlation between the abundance of species calling activity and maximum average temperatures. These correlations indicated that, in the study area. the abundance of calling males is more affected by the temperature, and species richness is more affected by precipitation, despite the fact that significantly higher species richness occurs during the hottest period of the year. These results showed that the climatological variables examined were not enough to explain the seasonal occurrence of species, thus the influence of other environmental variables merit to be tested in future studies.

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Objetive: To evaluate the effects of conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) on the pilocarpine-induced epilepsy in rats. Study design: 40 female rats were divided into: GPC (positive control) presented ""status epilepticus"" (SE) induced by pilocarpine; GOC(ovariectomized control) only castrated; GNC (negative control) received only saline solution; GPE received pilocarpine, presented SE, castrated and received 50 mu g/kg CEE treatment; GPV received pilocarpine, castrated and received propylene glycol (vehicle). The animals were monitored by a video system. At the end of observation, the brains removed for later histologic analysis using Neo-Timm and Nissl methods. Results: The GPE presented a reduction in number of seizures compared to GPV. The Neo-Timm analysis showed that GPV had greater sprouting of mossy fibers, with a denser band in the area of the dentate gyrus hilum compared to GPE. On Nissl staining, GPE showed evident neuronal loss in the CA3 area. GPV presented loss in CA1 and dentate gyrus. Conclusion: Estrogen may have a protecting effect on the central nervous system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The aims of this study were to characterize the spatial distribution of neurodegeneration after status epilepticus (SE) induced by either systemic (S) or intrahippocampal (H) injection of pilocarpine (PILO), two models of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), using FluoroJade (FJ) histochemistry, and to evaluate the kinetics of FJ staining in the H-PILO model. Therefore, we measured the severity of behavioral seizures during both types of SE and also evaluated the FJ staining pattern at 12, 24, and 168 h (7 days) after the H-PILO insult. We found that the amount of FJ-positive (FJ+) area was greater in SE induced by S-PILO as compared to SE induced by H-PILO. After SE induced by H-PILO, we found more FJ+ cells in the hilus of the dentate gyrus (DG) at 12 h, in CA3 at 24 h, and in CA1 at 168 h. We found also no correlation between seizure severity and the number of FJ+ cells in the hippocampus. Co-localization studies of FJ+ cells with either neuronal-specific nuclear protein (NeuN) or glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) labeling 24 h after H-PILO demonstrated spatially selective neurodegeneration. Double labeling with FJ and parvalbumin (PV) showed both FJ+/PV+ and FJ+/PV- cells in hippocampus and entorhinal cortex, among other areas. The current data indicate that FJ+ areas are differentially distributed in the two TLE models and that these areas are greater in the S-PILO than in the H-PILO model. There is also a selective kinetics of FJ+ cells in the hippocampus after SE induced by H-PILO, with no association with the severity of seizures, probably as a consequence of the extra-hippocampal damage. These data point to SE induced by H-PILO as a low-mortality model of TLE, with regional spatial and temporal patterns of FJ staining. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Evidence from animal models of anxiety has led to the hypothesis that serotonin enhances inhibitory avoidance (related to anxiety) in the forebrain, but inhibits one-way escape (panic) in the midbrain periaqueductal gray (PAG). Stressing the difference between these emotions, neuroendocrinological results indicate that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis is activated by anticipatory anxiety, but not by panic attack nor by electrical stimulation of the rat PAG. Functional neuroimaging has shown activation of the insula and upper brain stem (including PAG), as well as deactivation of the anterior cingulated cortex (ACC) during experimental panic attacks. Voxel-based morphometric analysis of brain magnetic resonance images has shown a grey matter volume increase in the insula and upper brain stem, and a decrease in the ACC of panic patients at rest, as compared to healthy controls. The insula and the ACC detect interoceptive stimuli, which are overestimated by panic patients. It is suggested that these brain areas and the PAG are involved in the pathophysiology of panic disorder. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) seizures, tonic or clonic motor behaviors (TCB) are commonly associated with automatisms, versions, and vocalizations, and frequently occur during secondary generalization. Dystonias are a common finding and appear to be associated with automatisms and head deviation, but have never been directly linked to generalized tonic or clonic behaviors. The objective of the present study was to assess whether dystonias and TCB are coupled in the same seizure or are associated in an antagonistic and exclusive pattern. Ninety-one seizures in 55 patients with TLE due to mesial temporal sclerosis were analyzed. Only patients with postsurgical seizure outcome of Engel class I or II were included. Presence or absence of dystonia and secondary generalization was recorded. Occurrence of dystonia and occurrence of bilateral tonic or clonic behaviors were negatively correlated. Dystonia and TCB may be implicated in exclusive, non-coincidental, or even antagonistic effects or phenomena in TLE seizures. A neural network related to the expression of one behavioral response (e.g., basal ganglia activation and dystonia) might theoretically ""displace"" brain activation or disrupt the synchronism of another network implicated in pathological circuit reverberation and seizure expression. The involvement of basal ganglia in the blockade of convulsive seizures has long been observed in animal models. The question is: Do dystonia and underlying basal ganglia activation represent an attempt of the brain to block imminent secondary generalization? (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This study was undertaken to test whether the structural remodelling of pulmonary parenchyma can be sequentially altered in a model and method that demonstrate the progression of the disease and result in remodelling within the lungs that is typical of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Three groups of mice were studied: (i) animals that received 3-5-di-tert-butyl-4-hydroxytoluene (BHT) and were killed after 2 weeks (early BHT = 9); (ii) animals that received BHT and were killed after 4 weeks (late BHT = 11); (iii) animals that received corn oil solution (control = 10). The mice were placed in a ventilated Plexiglas chamber with a mixture of pure humidified oxygen and compressed air. Lung histological sections underwent haematoxylin-eosin, immunohistochemistry (epithelial, endothelial and immune cells) and specific staining (collagen/elastic fibres) methods for morphometric analysis. When compared with the control group, early BHT and late BHT groups showed significant decrease of type II pneumocytes, lower vascular density in both and higher endothelial activity. CD4 was increased in late BHT compared with early and control groups, while CD8, macrophage and neutrophil cells were more prominent only in early BHT. The collagenous fibre density were significantly higher only in late BHT, whereas elastic fibre content in late BHT was lower than that in control group. We conclude that the BHT experimental model is pathologically very similar to human usual interstitial pneumonia. This feature is important in the identification of animal models of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that can accurately reflect the pathogenesis and progression of the human disease.

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Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

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Although the co-ordination of promotive root-sourced cytokinin (CK) and inhibitory shoot apex-sourced auxin (IAA) is central to all current models on lateral bud dormancy release, control by those hormones alone has appeared inadequate in many studies. Thus it was hypothesized that the IAA : CK model is the central control but that it must be considered within the relevant timeframe leading to lateral bud release and against a backdrop of interactions with other hormone groups. Therefore, IAA and a wide survey of cytokinins (CKs), were examined along with abscisic acid (ABA) and polyamines (PAs) in released buds, tissue surrounding buds and xylem sap at 1 and 4 h after apex removal, when lateral buds of chickpea are known to break dormancy. Three potential lateral bud growth inhibitors, IAA, ABA and cis-zeatin 9-riboside (ZR), declined sharply in the released buds and xylem following decapitation. This is in contrast to potential dormancy breaking CKs like trans-ZR and trans-zeantin 9-riboside 5'phosphate (ZRMP), which represented the strongest correlative changes by increasing 3.5-fold in xylem sap and 22-fold in buds. PAs had not changed significantly in buds or other tissues after 4 h, so they were not directly involved in the breaking of bud dormancy. Results from the xylem and surrounding tissues indicated that bud CK increases resulted from a combination synthesis in the bud and selective loading of CK nucleotides into the xylem from the root.

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Caveolae and their proteins, the caveolins, transport macromolecules; compartmentalize signalling molecules; and are involved in various repair processes. There is little information regarding their role in the pathogenesis of significant renal syndromes such as acute renal failure (ARF). In this study, an in vivo rat model of 30 min bilateral renal ischaemia followed by reperfusion times from 4 h to 1 week was used to map the temporal and spatial association between caveolin-1 and tubular epithelial damage (desquamation, apoptosis, necrosis). An in vitro model of ischaemic ARF was also studied, where cultured renal tubular epithelial cells or arterial endothelial cells were subjected to injury initiators modelled on ischaemia-reperfusion (hypoxia, serum deprivation, free radical damage or hypoxia-hyperoxia). Expression of caveolin proteins was investigated using immunohistochemistry, immunoelectron microscopy, and immunoblots of whole cell, membrane or cytosol protein extracts. In vivo, healthy kidney had abundant caveolin-1 in vascular endothelial cells and also some expression in membrane surfaces of distal tubular epithelium. In the kidneys of ARF animals, punctate cytoplasmic localization of caveolin-1 was identified, with high intensity expression in injured proximal tubules that were losing basement membrane adhesion or were apoptotic, 24 h to 4 days after ischaemia-reperfusion. Western immunoblots indicated a marked increase in caveolin-1 expression in the cortex where some proximal tubular injury was located. In vitro, the main treatment-induced change in both cell types was translocation of caveolin-1 from the original plasma membrane site into membrane-associated sites in the cytoplasm. Overall, expression levels did not alter for whole cell extracts and the protein remained membrane-bound, as indicated by cell fractionation analyses. Caveolin-1 was also found to localize intensely within apoptotic cells. The results are indicative of a role for caveolin-1 in ARF-induced renal injury. Whether it functions for cell repair or death remains to be elucidated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.