Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?

This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence on the asymmetricoutput effects of monetary policy. Asymmetric effects is a common feature ofmany theoretical models, and there are many different versions of suchasymmetries. We concentrate on the distinctions between positive andnegative money-supply changes, big and small changes in money-supply, andpossible combinations of the two asymmetries. Earlier research has foundempirical evidence in favor of the former of these in US data. Using M1 asthe monetary variable we find evidence in favor of neutrality of big shocksand non-neutrality of small shocks. The results may, however, be affected bystructual instability of M1 demand. Thus, we substitute M1 with the federalfunds rate. In these data we find that only small negative shocks affectreal aggregate activity. The results are interpreted in terms of menu-costmodels.

Pregnancy outcome following maternal exposure to statins: a multicentre prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: This contribution addresses the risk associated with exposure to statins during pregnancy. DESIGN: Multicentre observational prospective controlled study. SETTING: European Network of Teratology Information Services. POPULATION: Pregnant women who contacted one of 11 participating centres, seeking advice about exposure to statins during pregnancy, or to agents known to be nonteratogenic. METHODS: Pregnancies exposed during first trimester to statins were followed up prospectively, and their outcomes were compared with a matched control group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of major birth defects, live births, miscarriages, elective terminations, preterm deliveries and gestational age and birthweight at delivery. RESULTS: We collected observations from 249 exposed pregnancies and 249 controls. The difference in the rate of major birth defects between the statin-exposed and the control groups was small and statistically nonsignificant (4.1% versus 2.7% odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.5-4.5, P = 0.43). In an adjusted Cox model, the difference between miscarriage rates was also small and not significant (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% CI 0.63-2.93, P = 0.43). Premature birth was more frequent in exposed pregnancies (16.1% versus 8.5%; OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1-3.8, P = 0.019). Nonetheless, median gestational age at birth (39 weeks, interquartile range [IQR] 37-40 versus 39 weeks, IQR 38-40, P = 0.27) and birth weight (3280 g, IQR 2835-3590 versus 3250 g, IQR 2880-3630, P = 0.95) did not differ between exposed and non-exposed pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not detect a teratogenic effect of statins. Its statistical power remains insufficient to challenge current recommendations of treatment discontinuation during pregnancy.

Targeted Small Business Program Report, 2008

Targeted Small Business (TSB) compliance is authorized by Iowa Code Chapter 19B.7. Iowa Code Chapters 73.16-73.19 requires the establishment of TSB procurement provisions through the Departments of Management, Inspections and Appeals and Economic Development. This report will provide an overview of the State of Iowa’s Targeted Small Business Program and efforts to assure equal opportunity through targeted small business procurement during FY 2007.

Mandatory accounting disclosure by small private companies

This article analyzes how mandatory accounting disclosure is grounded on differentrationales for private and public companies. It also explores technological changes, such ascomputerised databases and the Internet, which have recently made disclosure of companyaccounts by small companies potentially less costly and more valuable, thanks to electronicfiling and universal online access to credit information systems. These recent developmentsfavour policies that would expand the scope of mandatory publication for small companies incountries where it is voluntary. They also encourage policies to reduce the costs and enhancethe value of disclosure through administrative reforms of filing, archive and retrieval systems.Survey and registry evidence on how the information in the accounts is valued and used bycompanies is consistent with these claims about the evolution of the tradeoff of costs andbenefits that should guide policy in this area.

Review of Targeted Small Business (TSB) procurement activities for the period July 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007

Review of Targeted Small Business (TSB) procurement activities for the period July 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007

An assessment of empirical Bayes and composite estimators for small areas

We compare a set of empirical Bayes and composite estimators of the population means of the districts (small areas) of a country, and show that the natural modelling strategy of searching for a well fitting empirical Bayes model and using it for estimation of the area-level means can be inefficient.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

A structural model of Australia as a small open economy

This paper sets up and estimates a structuralmodel of Australia as a small open economyusing Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recentstudies, the paper shows that a small microfoundedmodel can capture the open economydimensions quite well. Specifically, the modelattributes a substantial fraction of the volatilityof domestic output and inflation to foreigndisturbances, close to what is suggested by unrestrictedVAR studies. The paper also investigatesthe effects of various exogenous shockson the Australian economy.

The small species of Belostoma Latreille (Heteroptera, Belostomatidae). III. A revision of oxyurum group, with a new species from Brazil and description of the male of B. noualhieri Montandon

Species of the oxyurum group (sensu Lauck) consist of five extant Neotropical small species, whose lengths range 15.0 to 20.0 mm. The anterior interocular width about 1.5 times the width of an eye and ventral diverticulum of phallus flattened, circular, and large are, in combination, diagnostic. The small species of the oxyurum group were included in the Lauck´s key to the identification of the species groups, without dealing with the species included in it because many of them are very similar in appearance. Therefore here we redescribe and key the Belostoma species of the oxyurum group. Belostoma oxyurum (Dufour) is newly recorded from Brazil (Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul). Holotype and lectotype are designated for B. oxyurum and B. sanctulum Montandon, respectively. The aspect of the prosternal keel, the ratio between the width of the ventral diverticulum of phallus and its length in ventral view, and the aspect of dorsal arms of ventral diverticulum have proven useful for better species delimitation. Based on specimens from Pará State (N. Brazil), Belostoma carajaensis Ribeiro & Estévez, sp. nov. is described and illustrated. This new species differs from B. sanctulum in having anteoculus shorter than interoculus and the dorsal arms of ventral diverticulum divergent and large. A male specimen of B. noualhieri Montandon was collected in São Paulo State and based mainly on features of male genitalia, this species is here also included under oxyurum group.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

Anti-60kDa heat shock protein antibodies in fetal serum : a biomarker for unexplained small for gestational age fetuses

Rapport de synthèseObjectifsLe retard de croissance intrautérin (RCIU) est un problème affectant 10% des grossesses et est associé à une morbidité périnatale importante. Dans environ 80% des cas, une étiologie ou un facteur de risque majeur peuvent être identifiés. Mais près de 20% des cas sont considérés comme inexpliqués. La heat shock protéine 60kDa (HSP60) est une protéine fortement immunogène dont la synthèse est considérablement augmentée lors de conditions non- physiologiques. Les HSP60 humaines et bactériennes partagent un haut degré d'homologie de séquence ce qui peut engendrer une maladie auto-immune à la suite d'une infection bactérienne. Nous avons supposé que les RCIU inexpliqués pourraient être la conséquence d'une sensibilisation à l'HSP60 humaine.MéthodesLes RCIU inexpliqués ont été identifiés par mesure échographique avec un doppler normal, sans anomalies décelables chez la mère ou le foetus. Les sera foetaux ont été obtenus par cordocentèse, effectuée lors d'analyse du caryotype en cas de RCIU inexpliqué (groupe d'étude) ou pour le dépistage d'une incompatibilité Rhésus (groupe témoin). Ils ont été testés pour l'antigène HSP60 et les IgG et IgM anti-HSP60 par ELISA ainsi que pour d'autres paramètres immunitaires et hématologiques.RésultatsLes paramètres maternels sont similaires entre les 12 cas du groupe d'étude et les 23 cas du groupe contrôle. L'âge gestationnel moyen lors de la cordocentèse est de 29 semaines. Les IgM anti-HSP60 sont détectés dans 12 cas d'étude (100%) mais dans aucun cas contrôle (p <0,00017), les IgG anti-HSP60 dans 7 cas d'étude (58%) et un seul dans le groupe contrôle (p <0,001). Trois des quatre cas avec les taux d'IgM les plus élevés sont décédés. Il n'y a pas de différences entre les deux groupes quant aux taux d'antigène HSP60 ou d'autres marqueurs immunologiques ou hématologiques.ConclusionLes foetus avec un RCIU inexpliqué expriment un taux élevé d'anticorps IgM et IgG contre l'HSP60 humaine et le taux d'IgM est un facteur prédictif de la mortalité foetale. La détection de ces anticorps indique qu'une perturbation placentaire et une réaction auto-immune foetale liée à l'HSP60 sont associées à ce retard de développement chez le foetus.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.