POLYCHOTOMOUS LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS (HYPERTENSION, CORONARY HEART DISEASE)

The history of the logistic function since its introduction in 1838 is reviewed, and the logistic model for a polychotomous response variable is presented with a discussion of the assumptions involved in its derivation and use. Following this, the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are derived along with a Newton-Raphson iterative procedure for evaluation. A rigorous mathematical derivation of the limiting distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators is then presented using a characteristic function approach. An appendix with theorems on the asymptotic normality of sample sums when the observations are not identically distributed, with proofs, supports the presentation on asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, two applications of the model are presented using data from the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program, a prospective, population-based, randomized trial of treatment for hypertension. The first application compares the risk of five-year mortality from cardiovascular causes with that from noncardiovascular causes; the second application compares risk factors for fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease with those for fatal or nonfatal stroke. ^

DETECTION OF MALARIAL SPOROZOITES BY THE ENZYME LINKED IMMUNOSORBENT ASSAY (ELISA)

Detection of malarial sporozoites by a double antibody sandwich enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is described. This investigation utilized the Anopheles stephensi-Plasmodium berghei malaria model for the generation of sporozoites. Anti-sporozoite antibody was obtained from the sera of rats which had been bitten by An. stephensi with salivary gland sporozoites. Mosquitoes were irradiated prior to feeding on the rats to render the sporozoites non-viable.^ The assay employed microtiter plates coated with their rat anti-sporozoite antiserum or rat anti-sporozoite IgG. Intact and sonicated sporozoites were used as antigens. Initially, sporozoites were detected by an ELISA using staphylococcal protein A conjugated with alkaline phosphatase. Sporozoites were also detected using alkaline phosphatase or horseradish peroxidase conjugated to anti-sporozoite IgG. Best results were obtained using the alkaline phosphatase conjugate.^ This investigation included the titration of antigen, coating antibody and labelled antibody as well as studies of various incubation times. A radioimmunoassay (RIA) was also developed and compared with the ELISA for detecting sporozoites. Finally, the detection of a single infected mosquito in pools of 5 to 10 whole, uninfested ones was studied using both ELISA and RIA.^ Sonicated sporozoites were more readily detected than intact sporozoites. The lower limit of detection was approximately 500 sporozoites per ml. Results using ELISA or RIA were similar. The ability of the ELISA to detect a single infected mosquito in a pool of uninfected ones indicates that this technique has potential use in entomological field studies which aim at determining the vector status of anopheline mosquitoes. The potential of the ELISA for identifying sporozoites of different species of malaria is discussed. ^

Trace element concentrations and Li isotope composition in DSDP and ODP sediments from island arcs

We have studied the sedimentary and basaltic inputs of lithium to subduction zones. Various sediments from DSDP and ODP drill cores in front of the Mariana, South Sandwich, Banda, East Sunda and Lesser Antilles island arcs have been analysed and show highly variable Li contents and d7Li values. The sediment piles in front of the Mariana and South Sandwich arcs largely consist of pelagic sediments (clays and oozes). The pelagic clays have high Li contents (up to 57.3 ppm) and Li isotope compositions ranging from +1.3? to +4.1?. The oozes have lower Li contents (7.3-16 ppm) with d7Li values of the diatom oozes from the South Sandwich lower (+2.8? to +3.2?) than those of the radiolarian oozes from the Mariana arc (+8.1? to +14.5?). Mariana sediment also contains a significant portion of volcanogenic material, which is characterised by a moderate Li content (14 ppm) and a relatively heavy isotope composition (+6.4?). Sediments from the Banda and Lesser Antilles contain considerable amounts of continental detritus, and have high Li contents (up to 74.3 ppm) and low d7Li values (around 0?), caused by weathering of continental bedrock. East Sunda sediments largely consist of calcareous oozes. These carbonate sediments display intermediate to high Li contents (2.4-41.9 ppm) and highly variable d7Li values (-1.6? to +12.8?). Basaltic oceanic crust samples from worldwide DSDP and ODP drill cores are characterised by enrichment of Li compared to fresh MORB (6.6-33.1 vs. 3.6-7.5 ppm, respectively), and show a large range in Li isotope compositions (+1.7? to +11.8?). The elemental and isotopic enrichment of Li in altered basalts is due to the uptake of isotopically heavy seawater Li during weathering. However, old oceanic crust samples from Sites 417/418 exhibit lighter Li isotope compositions compared to young basaltic crust samples from Sites 332B and 504B. This lighter Li isotope signature in old crust is unexpected and further research is needed to explore this issue.

Ascidiofauna in the Southern Ocean

Three Spanish Antarctic research cruises (Ant-8611, Bentart-94 and Bentart-95) were carried out in the South Shetland Archipelago (Antarctic Peninsula) and Scotia Arc (South Orkney, South Sandwich and South Georgia archipelagos) on the continental shelf and upper slope (10-600 m depth). They have contributed to our knowledge about ascidian distribution and the zoogeographical relationships with the neighbouring areas and the other Subantarctic islands. The distribution of ascidian species suggests that the Scotia Arc is divided into two sectors, the South Orkney Archipelago, related to the Antarctic Province, and the South Georgia Archipelago (probably including the South Sandwich Archipelago), which is intermediate between the Antarctic Province and the Magellan region.

Geochemical investigations of volcanic ash layers from ODP Leg 119

Geochemical investigations were carried out on 19 discrete ash layers and on 42 dispersed ash accumulations in Oligocene to Pleistocene sediments from Sites 736, 737, 745, and 746 of ODP Leg 119 (Kerguelen Plateau in the southern Indian Ocean). The chemical data obtained from more than 500 single-grain glass analyses allow the characterization of two dominant petrographic rock series. The first consists of transitional- to alkali-basalts, the second mainly of trachytes with subordinated alkali-rhyolites and rhyolites. Chemical correlation with possible source areas indicates that the tephra layers from the northern Kerguelen Plateau Sites 736 and 737 were probably erupted from the nearby Kerguelen Islands. The investigated ash layers clearly reflect the Oligocene to recent changes in the composition of the volcanic material recorded from the Kerguelen Islands. The dispersed ashes from Sites 745 and 746 in the Australian-Antarctic Basin display almost the same range in chemical compositions as those from the north. Heard Island and other sources may have contributed to their formation, in addition to the Kerguelen Islands. Dispersed ash of calc-alkaline composition is most probably derived from the South Sandwich island arc, indicating sea-ice rafting as an important mechanism of transport.

Geochemistry of Cenozoic ash layers from the Kerguelen Plateau

Geochemical investigations were conducted on 10 discrete ash layers and 22 samples of dispersed ash accumulations from Sites 747, 749, and 751 of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 120 to the Kerguelen Plateau in the southern Indian Ocean. The chemical data obtained from some 400 single-grain glass analyses allow the characterization of two rock series. The first consists of transitional to alkali basalts; the second, mainly of trachytes with subordinated rhyolites, all reflecting the characteristic magmatological evolution of the Kerguelen Plateau as a hotspot-related volcanism. Chemical correlation with possible source areas indicates that the ashes were most probably erupted from the Kerguelen Islands. The investigated ash layers clearly reflect the Oligocene to Quaternary changes in the composition of the volcanic material recorded from the Kerguelen Islands. In addition to the Kerguelen Islands, Heard Island, Crozet Island, and other sources may have contributed to deposition of the tephras. Pleistocene tephras of "exotic" calc-alkaline composition are most probably derived from enhanced magmatic activity during that time span at the South Sandwich island arc. When using data obtained from tephras of the ODP Leg 119 Kerguelen sites, several eruptive periods can be correlated through the composition of the deposited ashes. Some of them are widely distributed over the Kerguelen Plateau and are seen as a first step toward a southern Indian Ocean tephrostratigraphy.