Estimadores compuestos en estadística regional: aplicación para la tasa de variación de la ocupación en la industria

This work is part of a project studying the performance of model basedestimators in a small area context. We have chosen a simple statisticalapplication in which we estimate the growth rate of accupation for severalregions of Spain. We compare three estimators: the direct one based onstraightforward results from the survey (which is unbiassed), and a thirdone which is based in a statistical model and that minimizes the mean squareerror.

Estimation of percentage body fat in 6- to 13-year-old children by skinfold thickness, body mass index and waist circumference.

We evaluated the accuracy of skinfold thicknesses, BMI and waist circumference for the prediction of percentage body fat (PBF) in a representative sample of 372 Swiss children aged 6-13 years. PBF was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. On the basis of a preliminary bootstrap selection of predictors, seven regression models were evaluated. All models included sex, age and pubertal stage plus one of the following predictors: (1) log-transformed triceps skinfold (logTSF); (2) logTSF and waist circumference; (3) log-transformed sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds (logSF2); (4) log-transformed sum of triceps, biceps, subscapular and supra-iliac skinfolds (logSF4); (5) BMI; (6) waist circumference; (7) BMI and waist circumference. The adjusted determination coefficient (R² adj) and the root mean squared error (RMSE; kg) were calculated for each model. LogSF4 (R² adj 0.85; RMSE 2.35) and logSF2 (R² adj 0.82; RMSE 2.54) were similarly accurate at predicting PBF and superior to logTSF (R² adj 0.75; RMSE 3.02), logTSF combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.78; RMSE 2.85), BMI (R² adj 0.62; RMSE 3.73), waist circumference (R² adj 0.58; RMSE 3.89), and BMI combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.63; RMSE 3.66) (P < 0.001 for all values of R² adj). The finding that logSF4 was only modestly superior to logSF2 and that logTSF was better than BMI and waist circumference at predicting PBF has important implications for paediatric epidemiological studies aimed at disentangling the effect of body fat on health outcomes.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Suboptimal filtering and nonlinear time scale transformation for the analysis of multiexponential decays

Multiexponential decays may contain time-constants differing in several orders of magnitudes. In such cases, uniform sampling results in very long records featuring a high degree of oversampling at the final part of the transient. Here, we analyze a nonlinear time scale transformation to reduce the total number of samples with minimum signal distortion, achieving an important reduction of the computational cost of subsequent analyses. We propose a time-varying filter whose length is optimized for minimum mean square error

On the consequences of misspecifing assumptions concerning residuals distribution in a repeated measures and nonlinear mixed modelling context

In this paper we describe the results of a simulation study performed to elucidate the robustness of the Lindstrom and Bates (1990) approximation method under non-normality of the residuals, under different situations. Concerning the fixed effects, the observed coverage probabilities and the true bias and mean square error values, show that some aspects of this inferential approach are not completely reliable. When the true distribution of the residuals is asymmetrical, the true coverage is markedly lower than the nominal one. The best results are obtained for the skew normal distribution, and not for the normal distribution. On the other hand, the results are partially reversed concerning the random effects. Soybean genotypes data are used to illustrate the methods and to motivate the simulation scenarios

Impact of incorrect assumptions on the covariance structure of random effects and/or residuals in nonlinear mixed models for repeated measures data

In this paper we analyse, using Monte Carlo simulation, the possible consequences of incorrect assumptions on the true structure of the random effects covariance matrix and the true correlation pattern of residuals, over the performance of an estimation method for nonlinear mixed models. The procedure under study is the well known linearization method due to Lindstrom and Bates (1990), implemented in the nlme library of S-Plus and R. Its performance is studied in terms of bias, mean square error (MSE), and true coverage of the associated asymptotic confidence intervals. Ignoring other criteria like the convenience of avoiding over parameterised models, it seems worst to erroneously assume some structure than do not assume any structure when this would be adequate.

Quantum fluctuations on domain walls, strings, and vacuum bubbles

We develop a covariant quantum theory of fluctuations on vacuum domain walls and strings. The fluctuations are described by a scalar field defined on the classical world sheet of the defects. We consider the following cases: straight strings and planar walls in flat space, true vacuum bubbles nucleating in false vacuum, and strings and walls nucleating during inflation. The quantum state for the perturbations is constructed so that it respects the original symmetries of the classical solution. In particular, for the case of vacuum bubbles and nucleating strings and walls, the geometry of the world sheet is that of a lower-dimensional de Sitter space, and the problem reduces to the quantization of a scalar field of tachyonic mass in de Sitter space. In all cases, the root-mean-squared fluctuation is evaluated in detail, and the physical implications are briefly discussed.

Revisiting Field Capacity (FC): variation of definition of FC and its estimation from pedotransfer functions

Taking into account the nature of the hydrological processes involved in in situ measurement of Field Capacity (FC), this study proposes a variation of the definition of FC aiming not only at minimizing the inadequacies of its determination, but also at maintaining its original, practical meaning. Analysis of FC data for 22 Brazilian soils and additional FC data from the literature, all measured according to the proposed definition, which is based on a 48-h drainage time after infiltration by shallow ponding, indicates a weak dependency on the amount of infiltrated water, antecedent moisture level, soil morphology, and the level of the groundwater table, but a strong dependency on basic soil properties. The dependence on basic soil properties allowed determination of FC of the 22 soil profiles by pedotransfer functions (PTFs) using the input variables usually adopted in prediction of soil water retention. Among the input variables, soil moisture content θ (6 kPa) had the greatest impact. Indeed, a linear PTF based only on it resulted in an FC with a root mean squared residue less than 0.04 m³ m-3 for most soils individually. Such a PTF proved to be a better FC predictor than the traditional method of using moisture content at an arbitrary suction. Our FC data were compatible with an equivalent and broader USA database found in the literature, mainly for medium-texture soil samples. One reason for differences between FCs of the two data sets of fine-textured soils is due to their different drainage times. Thus, a standardized procedure for in situ determination of FC is recommended.

Estimation of field capacity from ring infiltrometer-drainage data

Field capacity (FC) is a parameter widely used in applied soil science. However, its in situ method of determination may be difficult to apply, generally because of the need of large supplies of water at the test sites. Ottoni Filho et al. (2014) proposed a standardized procedure for field determination of FC and showed that such in situ FC can be estimated by a linear pedotransfer function (PTF) based on volumetric soil water content at the matric potential of -6 kPa [θ(6)] for the same soils used in the present study. The objective of this study was to use soil moisture data below a double ring infiltrometer measured 48 h after the end of the infiltration test in order to develop PTFs for standard in situ FC. We found that such ring FC data were an average of 0.03 m³ m- 3 greater than standard FC values. The linear PTF that was developed for the ring FC data based only on θ(6) was nearly as accurate as the equivalent PTF reported by Ottoni Filho et al. (2014), which was developed for the standard FC data. The root mean squared residues of FC determined from both PTFs were about 0.02 m³ m- 3. The proposed method has the advantage of estimating the soil in situ FC using the water applied in the infiltration test.

Finite-size effects in nonequilibrium correlation functions

We have shown that finite-size effects in the correlation functions away from equilibrium may be introduced through dimensionless numbers: the Nusselt numbers, accounting for both the nature of the boundaries and the size of the system. From an analysis based on fluctuating hydrodynamics, we conclude that the mean-square fluctuations satisfy scaling laws, since they depend only on the dimensionless numbers in addition to reduced variables. We focus on the case of diffusion modes and describe some physical situations in which finite-size effects may be relevant.

Dispersion of passive particles by a quasi-two-dimensional turbulent flow

Using the experimental data of Paret and Tabeling [Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 4162 (1997)] we consider in detail the dispersion of particle pairs by a two-dimensional turbulent flow and its relation to the kinematic properties of the velocity field. We show that the mean square separation of a pair of particles is governed by rather rare, extreme events and that the majority of initially close pairs are not dispersed by the flow. Another manifestation of the same effect is the fact that the dispersion of an initially dense cluster is not the result of homogeneously spreading the particles within the whole system. Instead it proceeds through a splitting into smaller but also dense clusters. The statistical nature of this effect is discussed.

Reticulocyte dynamic and hemoglobin variability in hemodialysis patients treated with Darbepoetin alfa and C.E.R.A.: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In a simulation based on a pharmacokinetic model we demonstrated that increasing the erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs) half-life or shortening their administration interval decreases hemoglobin variability. The benefit of reducing the administration interval was however lessened by the variability induced by more frequent dosage adjustments. The purpose of this study was to analyze the reticulocyte and hemoglobin kinetics and variability under different ESAs and administration intervals in a collective of chronic hemodialysis patients. METHODS: The study was designed as an open-label, randomized, four-period cross-over investigation, including 30 patients under chronic hemodialysis at the regional hospital of Locarno (Switzerland) in February 2010 and lasting 2 years. Four subcutaneous treatment strategies (C.E.R.A. every 4 weeks Q4W and every 2 weeks Q2W, Darbepoetin alfa Q4W and Q2W) were compared with each other. The mean square successive difference of hemoglobin, reticulocyte count and ESAs dose was used to quantify variability. We distinguished a short- and a long-term variability based respectively on the weekly and monthly successive difference. RESULTS: No difference was found in the mean values of biological parameters (hemoglobin, reticulocytes, and ferritin) between the 4 strategies. ESAs type did not affect hemoglobin and reticulocyte variability, but C.E.R.A induced a more sustained reticulocytes response over time and increased the risk of hemoglobin overshooting (OR 2.7, p = 0.01). Shortening the administration interval lessened the amplitude of reticulocyte count fluctuations but resulted in more frequent ESAs dose adjustments and in amplified reticulocyte and hemoglobin variability. Q2W administration interval was however more favorable in terms of ESAs dose, allowing a 38% C.E.R.A. dose reduction, and no increase of Darbepoetin alfa. CONCLUSIONS: The reticulocyte dynamic was a more sensitive marker of time instability of the hemoglobin response under ESAs therapy. The ESAs administration interval had a greater impact on hemoglobin variability than the ESAs type. The more protracted reticulocyte response induced by C.E.R.A. could explain both, the observed higher risk of overshoot and the significant increase in efficacy when shortening its administration interval.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01666301.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Multiway Array Decomposition Analysis of EEGs in Alzheimer’s Disease

Methods for the extraction of features from physiological datasets are growing needs as clinical investigations of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in large and heterogeneous population increase. General tools allowing diagnostic regardless of recording sites, such as different hospitals, are essential and if combined to inexpensive non-invasive methods could critically improve mass screening of subjects with AD. In this study, we applied three state of the art multiway array decomposition (MAD) methods to extract features from electroencephalograms (EEGs) of AD patients obtained from multiple sites. In comparison to MAD, spectral-spatial average filter (SSFs) of control and AD subjects were used as well as a common blind source separation method, algorithm for multiple unknown signal extraction (AMUSE). We trained a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) to validate and optimize AD classification from two independent databases. Using a third EEG dataset, we demonstrated that features extracted from MAD outperformed features obtained from SSFs AMUSE in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) and reaching up to 100% of accuracy in test condition. We propose that MAD maybe a useful tool to extract features for AD diagnosis offering great generalization across multi-site databases and opening doors to the discovery of new characterization of the disease.