922 resultados para risky asset
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Triatoma mexicana was described by Herrich-Schaeffer in 1848. In 1940, a male specimen was found in Hidalgo. In 1970, this species was recorded in the state of Queretaro. Later, it was registered in Guanajuato and San Luis Potosi. In the present paper we performed an investigation in 545 dwellings from three counties in the state of Guanajuato, Mexico, from March 2003 to May 2004. The search and capture of triatomines were seasonally performed indoors and outdoors. Entomological indexes were calculated. The risk and no risk relations between triatomine presence and housing construction materials were analyzed. Fourteen triatomines were collected indoors and 151 outdoors. The vectors were collected in houses built with either risky and non-risky materials. Adults go indoors but do not settle there, hence, no relationship was found between the building materials and infestation of houses. Conventional interventions like house improvement or insecticide spraying are not efficient for the control of T. mexicana, because its developmental cycle is accomplished outdoors in the area surrounding the houses.
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Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Transfusion-transmitted malaria is rare, but it may produce severe problem in the safety of blood transfusion due to the lack of reliable procedure to evaluate donors potentially exposed to malaria. Here, we evaluated a new enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay malaria antibody test (ELISA malaria antibody test, DiaMed, Switzerland) to detect antibodies to Plasmodium vivax (the indigenous malaria) in the blood samples in the Republic of Korea (ROK). Blood samples of four groups were obtained and analyzed; 100 samples from P.vivax infected patients, 35 from recovery patients, 366 from normal healthy individuals, and 325 from domestic travelers of non-endemic areas residents to risky areas of ROK. P.vivax antibody levels by ELISA were then compared to the results from microscopic examination and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. As a result, the ELISA malaria antibody test had a clinical sensitivity of 53.0% and a clinical specificity of 94.0% for P.vivax. Twenty out of 325 domestic travelers (6.2%) were reactive and 28 cases (8.6%) were doubtful. Of the reactive and doubtful cases, only two were confirmed as acute malaria by both microscopy and PCR test. Thus we found that the ELISA malaria antibody test was insufficiently sensitive for blood screening of P.vivax in ROK.
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BACKGROUND: A growing body of literature indicates that adolescents with chronic conditions are as likely, or more likely, to take risky behaviours than their healthy peers. The objective of this research was to assess whether adolescents with chronic illness in Catalonia differ from their healthy peers in risk-taking behaviour. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Catalonia Adolescent Health database, a survey including a random school-based sample of 6952 young people, aged 14-19 years. The index group (IG) included 665 adolescents (450 females) reporting several chronic conditions. The comparison group (CG) comprised 6287 healthy adolescents (3306 females). Personal, family and school-related variables were analysed to ensure comparability between groups. Sexual behaviour, drug use (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine and synthetic drugs) and perception of drug use among peers and in school were compared. Analysis was carried out separately by gender. chi-square, Fisher's and Student's tests were used to compare categorical and continuous variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of chronic conditions was 9.6%, with females showing a higher prevalence than males. The IG showed similar or higher rates of sexual intercourse and risky sexual behaviour. For most studied drugs, IG males reported slightly lower rates of use than CG males, while IG females showed higher rates for every drug studied. No differences were found in the perceptions of drug use among peers or in their school. CONCLUSIONS: Similar to previous research, chronically ill adolescents in our sample are as likely, or more likely, to take risky behaviours than their healthy counterparts and should receive the same anticipatory guidance.
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La intenció d'aquest article és detallar l'abast del capital social als esdeveniments culturals celebrats a Catalunya i analitzar la influència sobre l'atracció turística dels mateixos. Es pretén determinar també quin és l'impacte que tres elements de capital social que intervenen en l'organització d'esdeveniments (elements de motivació, creació de xarxes internes i lideratge) tenen sobre el sector turístic local. L'estudi parteix d'una mostra de 263 esdeveniments als quals s'ha adreçat una enquesta per determinar la presència i pes dels factors de capital social. Aquesta informació s'ha creuat amb dades sobre impactes i atracció turística obtingudes també a partir de la mateixa enquesta i, a partir de l'aplicació del test del chi quadrat, s'ha contrastat si les diferències existents entre els diferents factors del capital social són estadísticament significatives. Les conclusions principals obtingudes indiquen que els esdeveniments que tenen elements de capital social que els reforça la seva cohesió social entenen i justifiquen la celebració com a fet socialitzador, independentment del seu abast turístic. A més es detecta que la creació de xarxes de relació enforteix la cohesió interna, la representativitat i el sentit d'identitat de la comunitat. Finalment es constata que la presència d'elements de lideratge que donen visibilitat i vinculen l'esdeveniment amb xarxes externes explica la diferència existent en la capacitat d'atracció i impactes turístics dels esdeveniments. La principal aportació del treball és posar de manifest el paper del capital social com a factor que incideix en la repercussió social i turística dels esdeveniments catalans. La diagnosi efectuada permet recomanar la incorporació del capital social com un actiu estratègic per a la gestió i per a la creació de nous productes i polítiques turístiques centrades en els esdeveniments culturals.
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BACKGROUND: Prospective assessment of pedicled extrathoracic muscle flaps for the closure of large intrathoracic airway defects after noncircumferential resection in situations where an end-to-end reconstruction seemed risky (defects of > 4-cm length, desmoplastic reactions after previous infection or radiochemotherapy). METHODS: From 1996 to 2001, 13 intrathoracic muscle transpositions (6 latissimus dorsi and 7 serratus anterior muscle flaps) were performed to close defects of the intrathoracic airways after noncircumferential resection for tumor (n = 5), large tracheoesophageal fistula (n = 2), delayed tracheal injury (n = 1) and bronchopleural fistula (n = 5). In 2 patients, the extent of the tracheal defect required reinforcement of the reconstruction by use of a rib segment embedded into the muscle flap followed by temporary tracheal stenting. Patient follow-up was by clinical examination bronchoscopy and biopsy, pulmonary function tests, and dynamic virtual bronchoscopy by computed tomographic (CT) scan during inspiration and expiration. RESULTS: The airway defects ranged from 2 x 1 cm to 8 x 4 cm and involved up to 50% of the airway circumference. They were all successfully closed using muscle flaps with no mortality and all patients were extubated within 24 hours. Bronchoscopy revealed epithelialization of the reconstructions without dehiscence, stenosis, or recurrence of fistulas. The flow-volume loop was preserved in all patients and dynamic virtual bronchoscopy revealed no significant difference in the endoluminal cross surface areas of the airway between inspiration and expiration above (45 +/- 21 mm(2)), at the site (76 +/- 23 mm(2)) and below the reconstruction (65 +/- 40 mm(2)). CONCLUSIONS: Intrathoracic airway defects of up to 50% of the circumference may be repaired using extrathoracic muscle flaps when an end-to-end reconstruction is not feasible.
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Se analiza el efecto de las pérdidas y ganancias recientes sobre la conducta arriesgada y el riesgo percibido en la ejecución del simulador de conducción TIC/PC. Los modelos teóricos analizados coinciden en predecir aumento de la conducta arriesgada tras la pérdida y no modificación tras la ganancia. Los resultados obtenidos no confirman estas predicciones en cuanto al efecto de las pérdidas recientes. Tras las ganancias los sujetos no se diferencian de los controles. En cuanto al riesgo percibido, sólo la Teoría de Riesgo-Cero predice modificaciones tras la pérdida. Si bien nuestros sujetos experimentales perciben menos riesgo tras la pérdida, ello no se traduce en un aumento de la conducta arriesgada. Parece ser que percepción y conducta se rigen por mecanismos diferentes
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BACKGROUND: Nineteen patients were evaluated after closure of intrathoracic esophageal leaks by a pediculated muscle flap onlay repair in the presence of mediastinal and systemic sepsis. METHODS: Intrathoracic esophageal leaks with mediastinitis and systemic sepsis occurred after delayed spontaneous perforations (n = 7) or surgical and endoscopic interventions (n = 12). Six patients presented with fulminant anastomotic leaks. Seven patients had previous attempts to close the leak by surgery (n = 4) or stenting (2) or both (n = 1). The debrided defects measured up to 2 x 12 cm or involved three quarters of the anastomotic circumference and were closed either by a full thickness diaphragmatic flap (n = 13) or a pediculated intrathoracically transposed extrathoracic muscle flap (n = 6). All patients had postoperative contrast esophagography between days 7 and 10 and an endoscopic evaluation 4 to 6 months after surgery. RESULTS: There was no 30-day mortality. During follow-up (4 to 42 months), 16 patients (84%) revealed functional and morphological restoration of the esophagointestinal integrity without further interventions. One patient required serial dilatations for a stricture, and 1 underwent temporary stenting for a persistent fistula; both patients had normal control endoscopy during follow-up. A third patient requiring permanent stenting for stenosis died from gastrointestinal bleeding due to stent erosion during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Intrathoracic esophageal leaks may be closed efficiently by a muscle flap onlay approach in the presence of mediastinitis and where a primary repair seems risky. The same holds true for fulminant intrathoracic anastomotic leaks after esophagectomy or other surgical interventions at the gastroesophageal junction.
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First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.
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BACKGROUND: International comparisons of social inequalities in alcohol use have not been extensively investigated. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of country-level characteristics and individual socio-economic status (SES) on individual alcohol consumption in 33 countries. METHODS: Data on 101,525 men and women collected by cross-sectional surveys in 33 countries of the GENACIS study were used. Individual SES was measured by highest attained educational level. Alcohol use measures included drinking status and monthly risky single occasion drinking (RSOD). The relationship between individuals' education and drinking indicators was examined by meta-analysis. In a second step the individual level data and country data were combined and tested in multilevel models. As country level indicators we used the Purchasing Power Parity of the gross national income, the Gini coefficient and the Gender Gap Index. RESULTS: For both genders and all countries higher individual SES was positively associated with drinking status. Also higher country level SES was associated with higher proportions of drinkers. Lower SES was associated with RSOD among men. Women of higher SES in low income countries were more often RSO drinkers than women of lower SES. The opposite was true in higher income countries. CONCLUSION: For the most part, findings regarding SES and drinking in higher income countries were as expected. However, women of higher SES in low and middle income countries appear at higher risk of engaging in RSOD. This finding should be kept in mind when developing new policy and prevention initiatives.
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L'adolescence est une période de grands changements et de ce fait potentiellement de grande vulnérabilité. Ainsi, les bouleversements physiques et psychiques induits par les processus pubertaires sont un terrain propice à l'émergence d'un trouble des conduites alimentaires (TCA). La thérapie familiale selon Maudsley, ou family based treatment (FBT), a émergé en parallèle aux avancées neurobiologiques, qui confirment une origine multifactorielle des troubles du comportement alimentaire. Cette thérapie replace les parents au centre de la prise en charge des adolescents souffrant d'un TCA avec comme grand atout, une approche basée sur l'évidence scientifique. Adolescence is a time of great change and therefore, potentially of great vulnerability. Thus, physical and psychological changes induced by pubertal processes are fertile ground for the emergence of an eating disorder (ED). Family therapy according to Maudsley or "family based treatment" (FBT) has emerged in parallel with neurobiological advances confirming a multifactorial origin of eating disorders. This therapy places parents at the centre of care for adolescents with EDs. Its great asset is the evidence-based approach underpinning the therapy.
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Neste trabalho, discute-se a fixação de taxas de retorno de concessões no Brasil, com aplicação específica ao caso da metodologia da Agência Nacional de Transportes Terrestres (ANTT). Mostra-se a inadequação da regulamentação vigente, baseada no conceito de taxa interna de retorno (TIR), e não de custo de oportunidade do capital. A partir de um exemplo com dados referentes ao auge da crise financeira internacional (dezembro de 2008), evidencia-se também a falta de lógica decorrente da utilização de retornos e preços passados na estimação de taxas de retorno, um procedimento comum a toda a área de concessões de serviços públicos no Brasil. Propõe-se uma metodologia alternativa cujos resultados são sensíveis às condições correntes de mercado de capitais, que produz resultados coerentes com a situação então vigente.
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This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.
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RESUMONo artigo, reexaminam-se as estratégias de momento a fim de verificar se a falta de evidências quanto a sua lucratividade no mercado brasileiro pode estar relacionada às quebras que elas experimentam durante as crises, conforme reportado por Daniel e Moskowitz. Para tanto, utilizou-se o teste t-student com o intuito de comparar os retornos médios auferidos pela carteira de momento dentro e fora das crises financeiras entre janeiro de 1997 e março de 2014. A partir dos resultados, demonstra-se que, em linha com o reportado para outros mercados, a carteira experimenta quebras durante as crises, ao passo que proporciona retornos positivos e significativos nos demais períodos, mesmo após o controle para os fatores de risco dos modelos do Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) e de Fama-French. Esses achados indicam que a falta de evidências quanto à lucratividade dessas estratégias não implica o entendimento do mercado brasileiro como uma exceção, mas pode ser explicada pela quebra das carteiras de momento durante as crises, que anulam grande parte dos retornos positivos auferidos por essa estratégia em outros períodos.
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ABSTRACT This study aims to contribute towards understanding the multiple factors, which influence firm's governance decisions. To identify some of these factors, three cases in the Brazilian wine industry were analyzed: Miolo located in Vale dos Vinhedos (South of Brazil) and in Vale do Rio São Francisco (Northeast of Brazil); Don Laurindo located in Vale dos Vinhedos; and ViniBrasil located in Vale do Rio São Francisco. For the most part, all three firms procure the grapes they use for their wine production in-house. Only Miolo purchases an insignificant amount of grapes outside of its production. By Brazilian standards, these regions have a long tradition of grape production and it is not difficult to purchase sufficient quantity of grapes to produce wine. However, the wineries are concerned also about the quality of the grapes they use and purchasing high-quality grapes might be critical issue. On the other hand, the quality of grapes is easily measured and the cost to buy in the market is cheaper than producing in-house. Furthermore, also the level of asset specificity present in the grape-grower-wine-producer transaction seems, by itself, insufficient to justify the use of hierarchical governance forms. Then, the aim of the article is to analyze the reasons why these wineries largely rely on hierarchy governance forms to procure their grape-inputs. What explains their use of hierarchy governance, given that both asset specificity and measurement problems appear to be relatively low?