Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with ‘business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

Host and habitat filtering in seedling root-associated fungal communities: taxonomic and functional diversity are altered in ‘novel’ soils

Climatic and land use changes have significant consequences for the distribution of tree species, both through natural dispersal processes and following management prescriptions. Responses to these changes will be expressed most strongly in seedlings near current species range boundaries. In northern temperate forest ecosystems, where changes are already being observed, ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute significantly to successful tree establishment. We hypothesised that communities of fungal symbionts might therefore play a role in facilitating, or limiting, host seedling range expansion. To test this hypothesis, ectomycorrhizal communities of interior Douglas-fir and interior lodgepole pine seedlings were analysed in a common greenhouse environment following growth in five soils collected along an ecosystem gradient. Currently, Douglas-fir’s natural distribution encompasses three of the five soils, whereas lodgepole pine’s extends much further north. Host filtering was evident amongst the 29 fungal species encountered: 7 were shared, 9 exclusive to Douglas-fir and 13 exclusive to lodgepole pine. Seedlings of both host species formed symbioses with each soil fungal community, thus Douglas-fir did so even where those soils came from outside its current distribution. However, these latter communities displayed significant taxonomic and functional differences to those found within the host distribution, indicative of habitat filtering. In contrast, lodgepole pine fungal communities displayed high functional similarity across the soil gradient. Taxonomic and/or functional shifts in Douglas-fir fungal communities may prove ecologically significant during the predicted northward migration of this species; especially in combination with changes in climate and management operations, such as seed transfer across geographical regions for forestry purposes.

Bantu expansion shows that habitat alters the route and pace of human dispersals

Unlike most other biological species, humans can use cultural innovations to occupy a range of environments, raising the intriguing question of whether human migrations move relatively independently of habitat or show preferences for familiar ones. The Bantu expansion that swept out of West Central Africa beginning ∼5,000 y ago is one of the most influential cultural events of its kind, eventually spreading over a vast geographical area a new way of life in which farming played an increasingly important role. We use a new dated phylogeny of ∼400 Bantu languages to show that migrating Bantu-speaking populations did not expand from their ancestral homeland in a “random walk” but, rather, followed emerging savannah corridors, with rainforest habitats repeatedly imposing temporal barriers to movement. When populations did move from savannah into rainforest, rates of migration were slowed, delaying the occupation of the rainforest by on average 300 y, compared with similar migratory movements exclusively within savannah or within rainforest by established rainforest populations. Despite unmatched abilities to produce innovations culturally, unfamiliar habitats significantly alter the route and pace of human dispersals.

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: a test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.

How much flower-rich habitat is enough for wild pollinators? Answering a key policy question with incomplete knowledge

In 2013, an opportunity arose in England to develop an agri-environment package for wild pollinators, as part of the new Countryside Stewardship scheme launched in 2015. It can be understood as a 'policy window', a rare and time-limited opportunity to change policy, supported by a narrative about pollinator decline and widely supported mitigating actions. An agri-environment package is a bundle of management options that together supply sufficient resources to support a target group of species. This paper documents information that was available at the time to develop such a package for wild pollinators. Four questions needed answering: (1) Which pollinator species should be targeted? (2) Which resources limit these species in farmland? (3) Which management options provide these resources? (4) What area of each option is needed to support populations of the target species? Focussing on wild bees, we provide tentative answers that were used to inform development of the package. There is strong evidence that floral resources can limit wild bee populations, and several sources of evidence identify a set of agri-environment options that provide flowers and other resources for pollinators. The final question could only be answered for floral resources, with a wide range of uncertainty. We show that the areas of some floral resource options in the basic Wild Pollinator and Farmland Wildlife Package (2% flower-rich habitat and 1 km flowering hedgerow), are sufficient to supply a set of six common pollinator species with enough pollen to feed their larvae at lowest estimates, using minimum values for estimated parameters where a range was available. We identify key sources of uncertainty, and stress the importance of keeping the Package flexible, so it can be revised as new evidence emerges about how to achieve the policy aim of supporting pollinators on farmland.

Home range and habitat use by the roadside hawk, Rupornis magnirostris (Gmelin, 1788) (Aves: Falcaniformes) in southeastern Brazil

Although most raptor species are found mainly in the tropics, information on their home range and spatial requirements in the Neotropics is still scarce. In this study, we used radio telemetry to evaluate the home range and the habitat use and selection of five Roadside hawks, Rupornis magnirostris (Gmelin, 1788) in a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Brazil. The average home range size calculated using the adaptive kernel method (95% isopleth) was 126.1ha (47.4-266.7ha), but using the minimum convex polygon method (95% isopleth) it was 143.54ha (32.6-382.3ha). The roadside hawk explored a wide variety of habitats, most of them opportunistically, as suggested in the literature. Despite this, habitat quality could influence home range size and promote habitat selection. The observation of habitat use as expected, as well as the relatively small home range size, could be related to the generalist/opportunistic behaviour of the roadside hawk.

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split-defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species-on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.

Habitat fragmentation reduces genetic diversity and connectivity among toad populations in the Brazilian Atlantic Coastal Forest

Tropical rainforests are becoming increasingly fragmented and understanding the genetic consequences of fragmentation is crucial for conservation of their flora and fauna. We examined populations of the toad Rhinella ornata, a species endemic to Atlantic Coastal Forest in Brazil, and compared genetic diversity among small and medium forest fragments that were either isolated or connected to large forest areas by corridors. Genetic differentiation, as measured by F(ST), was not related to geographic distance among study sites and the size of the fragments did not significantly alter patterns of genetic connectivity. However, population genetic diversity was positively related to fragment size, thus haplotype diversity was lowest in the smallest fragments, likely due to decreases in population sizes. Spatial analyses of genetic discontinuities among groups of populations showed a higher proportion of barriers to gene flow among small and medium fragments than between populations in continuous forest. Our results underscore that even species with relatively high dispersal capacities may, over time, suffer the negative genetic effects of fragmentation, possibly leading to reduced fitness of population and cases of localized extinction. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local richness and distribution of the lizard fauna in natural habitat mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

We investigate local lizard richness and distribution in central Brazilian Cerrado, harbouring one of the least studied herpetofaunas in the Neotropical region. Our results are based on standardized samplings at 10 localities, involving 2917 captures of 57 lizard species in 10 families. Local richness values exceeded most presented in earlier studies and varied from 13 to 28 species, with modal values between 19 and 28 species. Most of the Cerrado lizard fauna is composed of habitat-specialists with patchy distributions in the mosaic of grasslands, savannas and forests, resulting in habitat-structured lizard assemblages. Faunal overlap between open and forested habitats is limited, and forested and open areas may act as mutual barriers to lizard distribution. Habitat use is influenced by niche conservatism in deep lineages, with iguanians and gekkotans showing higher use of forested habitats, whereas autarchoglossans are richer and more abundant in open habitats. Contrary to trends observed in Cerrado birds and large mammals, lizard richness is significantly higher in open, interfluvial habitats that dominate the Cerrado landscape. Between-localities variation in lizard richness seems tied to geographical distance, landscape history and phylogenetic constraints, factors operating in other well-studied lizard faunas in open environments. Higher richness in dominant, open interfluvial habitats may be recurrent in Squamata and other small-bodied vertebrates, posing a threat to conservation as these habitats are most vulnerable to the fast, widespread and ongoing process of habitat destruction in central Brazil.

Habitat use by the South-American rattlesnake (Crotalus durissus) in south-eastern Brazil

Habitat use affects food intake, reproductive fitness and body temperature control in reptiles. Habitat use depends on both the characteristics of the animal and the environmental heterogeneity. In this study we investigated habitat use in a population of the South-American rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus, in a cerrado (the Brazilian savanna) remnant, in south-eastern Brazil. In general, snakes appeared to be thermal generalists. However, they showed substrate temperature preferences in the rainy season, when they selected colder substrates during the day and warmer substrates at night. Individuals were predominantly active on the surface and more frequently found under bushes. Furthermore, in general, the principal component analysis results indicate that rattlesnakes are generalists regarding the microhabitat variables examined in this study. These habitat characteristics, associated with a low thermal selectivity, indicate that rattlesnakes are able to colonize deforested areas where shade occurrence and vegetation cover are similar to those in the cerrado.

Patterns of oocyte development in natural habitat and captive Salminus hilarii Valenciennes, 1850 (Teleostei: Characidae)

Fecundity and oocyte development in Salminus hilarii female brood stock were analyzed with the aim of investigating the impact of migration impediment on oogenesis. Histological analyses of the ovaries were performed in adult females caught in two different environments-the TietA(a) River (natural) and captivity-and the gonadossomatic index, oocyte diameter and fecundity determined. Five germ cell development stages (oogonium, perinucleolar, cortical alveoli, vitellogenic, ripe) and two other structures (postovulatory follicles and atretic oocytes) were observed in females caught in the river. Captive animals lacked the ripe oocytes and postovulatory follicles and had a relatively higher number of atretic oocytes. Females in captivity are known to produce larger oocytes, and they release fewer eggs in each spawn (absolute fecundity) when compared with animals that are able to migrate. Our results suggest that the TietA(a) River is undergoing alterations which are being reflected in the reproductive performance of S. hilarii, mainly due to the presence of atretic oocytes in females caught in the river. The lack of postovulatory follicles and ripe oocytes in captive animals reveals that migratory impediment negatively impacts final oocyte maturation. However, the stage of maturation reached is adequate for ovulation induction with hormone manipulation.

A bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data: local influence and residual analysis

The use of bivariate distributions plays a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. In this paper, we consider a location scale model for bivariate survival times based on the proposal of a copula to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. For the proposed model, we consider inferential procedures based on maximum likelihood. Gains in efficiency from bivariate models are also examined in the censored data setting. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data. Sensitivity analysis methods such as local and total influence are presented and derived under three perturbation schemes. The martingale marginal and the deviance marginal residual measures are used to check the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, we propose a new measure which we call modified deviance component residual. The methodology in the paper is illustrated on a lifetime data set for kidney patients.

Internal Residual Stress Measurements in a Bioactive Glass-Ceramic Using Vickers Indentation

The residual stress distribution that arises in the glass matrix during cooling of a partially crystallized 17.2Na(2)O-32.1CaO-48.1SiO(2)-2.5P(2)O(5) (mol%) bioactive glass-ceramic was measured using the Vickers indentation method proposed by Zeng and Rowcliffe (ZR). The magnitude of the determined residual stress at the crystal/glass boundary was 1/4-1/3 of the values measured using X-ray diffraction (within the crystals) and calculated using Selsing`s model. A correction for the crack geometry factor, assuming a semi-elliptical shape, is proposed and then good agreement between experimental and theoretical values is found. Thus, if the actual crack geometry is taken into account, the indentation technique of ZR can be successfully used. In addition, a numerical model for the calculation of residual stresses that takes into account the hemispherical shape of the crystalline precipitates at a free surface was developed. The result is that near the sample surface, the radial component of the residual stress is increased by 70% in comparison with the residual stress calculated by Selsing`s model.