Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.

Overtopping of harbour breakwaters: a comparison of semi-empirical equations, neural networks, and physical model tests

This paper reports extensive tests of empirical equations developed by different authors for harbour breakwater overtopping. First, the existing equations are compiled and evaluated as tools for estimating the overtopping rates on sloping and vertical breakwaters. These equations are then tested using the data obtained in a number of laboratory studies performed in the Centre for Harbours and Coastal Studies of the CEDEX, Spain. It was found that the recommended application ranges of the empirical equations typically deviate from those revealed in the experimental tests. In addition, a neural network model developed within the European CLASH Project is tested. The wind effects on overtopping are also assessed using a reduced scale physical model

Service Capacity Reserve under Uncertainty by Hospital’s ER Analogies: A Practical Model for Car Services

We define a capacity reserve model to dimension passenger car service installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced by using hospital?s emergency room analogies. Usually, service facilities are designed applying empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the original estimations, and there is a gap between customer?s real demand and the service?s capacity. Our research establishes a valid methodology and covers the absence of recent researches and the lack of statistical techniques implementation, integrating demand uncertainty in a unique model built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, queuing theory, and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Our model has proved to be a useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty integrating the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand and defining a set of new process indicators, such us capacity, occupancy, and cost of capacity reserve never studied before. The new indicators are intended to optimize the service operation. This set of new indicators could be implemented in the information systems used in the passenger car services.

Vortex-induced vibrations on bridges : the interaction mechanism in complex sections and a new proposed semi-empirical model

El presente trabajo de investigación se ocupa del estudio de las vibraciones verticales inducidas por vórtices (VIV) en aquellos puentes que, por sus características geométricas y propiedades dinámicas, muestran cierta sensibilidad este tipo de fenómeno aeroelástico. El objeto principal es el análisis del mecanismo de interacción viento-estructura sobre secciones no fuseladas de geometría simple, con objeto de realizar una adecuada caracterización del problema y poder abordar posteriormente el análisis de otras secciones de geometría más compleja, representativas de los principales elementos estructurales de los puentes, como arcos, tableros, torres y pilas. Este aspecto es fundamental durante la fase de diseño del puente, donde deberán tenerse en cuenta también una serie de detalles que pueden influir significativamente su sensibilidad ante problemas aerodinámicos, como la morfología y dimensiones principales de la sección transversal del tablero, la disposición de barreras de seguridad y barreras cortaviento, o las riostras que unen diferentes elementos estructurales. La configuración de dos elementos en tándem o la construcción de un puente en las inmediaciones de otro existente son otros aspectos a considerar respecto a la sensibilidad frente a efectos aeroelásticos. El estudio se ha llevado a cabo principalmente mediante la implementación de simulaciones numéricas que reproducen la interacción entre la corriente de aire y secciones representativas de modelos estructurales, a partir de un código CFD basado en el método de las partículas de vórtices (VPM), siguiendo por tanto un esquema Lagrangiano. Los resultados han sido validados con datos experimentales existentes, valores procedentes de ensayos en túnel de viento y registros reales a partir de diferentes casos de estudio: Alconétar (2006), Niterói (1980), Trans- Tokyo Bay (1995) y Volgogrado (2010). Finalmente, se propone un modelo semi-empírico para la estimación del rango de velocidades críticas y amplitudes de oscilación basado en la utilización de las derivadas de flameo de Scanlan, y la densidad espectral de las fuerzas aerodinámicas en el dominio de la frecuencia. The present research work concerns the study of vertical vortex-induced vibrations (VIV) in bridges which show certain sensitivity to this type of aeroelastic phenomenon. It focuses on the analysis of the wind-structure interaction mechanism on bluff sections, with the objective of making a good characterisation of the problem and subsequently addressing the analysis of sections with a complex geometry, which are representative of the bridge structural elements, such as arches, decks, towers and piers. This issue is of relative importance during the bridge design phase, since minor details of the aforementioned elements can significantly influence its sensitivity to aerodynamic problems. The shape and main dimensions of the deck cross section, the addition of safety barriers and windshields, the presence of braces to enhance the structure mechanical properties, the utilisation of cross sections in tandem arrangement, or the erection of a new bridge in the vicinity of another existing one are some of the aspects to be considered regarding the sensitivity to the aeroelastic effects. The study has been carried out mainly through the implementation of numerical simulations that reproduces the interaction between the airflow and the representative cross section of a structural bridge model, by the use of a CFD code based on the vortex particle method (VPM), thus following a Lagrangian scheme. The results have been validated with existing experimental data, values from wind tunnel tests and full scale observations from the different case studies: Alconétar (2006), Niterói (1980), Trans-Tokyo Bay (1995) and Volgograd (2010). Finally, a new semi-empirical model is proposed for the estimation of the critical wind velocity ranges and oscillation amplitudes based on the use of the Scanlan’s flutter derivatives and the power spectral density of aerodynamic force time history in the frequency domain.

Service capacity reserve under uncertainty by hospital's ER's analogies: a practical model for car services

El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en definir un modelo de reserva de capacidad, por analogías con emergencias hospitalarias, que pueda ser implementado en el sector de servicios. Este está específicamente enfocado a su aplicación en talleres de servicio de automóviles. Nuestra investigación incorpora la incertidumbre de la demanda en un modelo singular diseñado en etapas que agrupa técnicas ARIMA, teoría de colas y simulación Monte Carlo para definir los conceptos de capacidad y ocupación de servicio, que serán utilizados para minimizar el coste implícito de la reserva capacidad necesaria para atender a clientes que carecen de cita previa. Habitualmente, las compañías automovilísticas estiman la capacidad de sus instalaciones de servicio empíricamente, pero los clientes pueden llegar bajo condiciones de incertidumbre que no se tienen en cuenta en dichas estimaciones, por lo que existe una diferencia entre lo que el cliente realmente demanda y la capacidad que ofrece el servicio. Nuestro enfoque define una metodología válida para el sector automovilístico que cubre la ausencia genérica de investigaciones recientes y la habitual falta de aplicación de técnicas estadísticas en el sector. La equivalencia con la gestión de urgencias hospitalarias se ha validado a lo largo de la investigación en la se definen nuevos indicadores de proceso (KPIs) Tal y como hacen los hospitales, aplicamos modelos estocásticos para dimensionar las instalaciones de servicio de acuerdo con la distribución demográfica del área de influencia. El modelo final propuesto integra la predicción del coste implícito en la reserva de capacidad para atender la demanda no prevista. Asimismo, se ha desarrollado un código en Matlab que puede integrarse como un módulo adicional a los sistemas de información (DMS) que se usan actualmente en el sector, con el fin de emplear los nuevos indicadores de proceso definidos en el modelo. Los resultados principales del modelo son nuevos indicadores de servicio, tales como la capacidad, ocupación y coste de reserva de capacidad, que nunca antes han sido objeto de estudio en la industria automovilística, y que están orientados a gestionar la operativa del servicio. ABSTRACT Our aim is to define a Capacity Reserve model to be implemented in the service sector by hospital's emergency room (ER) analogies, with a practical approach to passenger car services. A stochastic model has been implemented using R and a Monte Carlo simulation code written in Matlab and has proved a very useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty. The research integrates demand uncertainty in a unique model which is built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, Queuing Theory and a Monte Carlo simulation to define the concepts of service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Usually, passenger car companies estimate their service facilities capacity using empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the estimations. Thus, there is a gap between customer’s real demand and the dealer’s capacity. This research sets a valid methodology for the passenger car industry to cover the generic absence of recent researches and the generic lack of statistical techniques implementation. The hospital’s emergency room (ER) equalization has been confirmed to be valid for the passenger car industry and new process indicators have been defined to support the study. As hospitals do, we aim to apply stochastic models to dimension installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced. The proposed model integrates the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand. The Matlab code could be implemented as part of the existing information technology systems (ITs) to support the existing service management tools, creating a set of new process indicators. Main model outputs are new indicators, such us Capacity, Occupancy and Cost of Capacity Reserve, never studied in the passenger car service industry before, and intended to manage the service operation.

Design of a generalized tool for the performance assessment under sail based on analytical, numerical and empirical results : a global sailing yacht meta-model

La evaluación de las prestaciones de las embarcaciones a vela ha constituido un objetivo para ingenieros navales y marinos desde los principios de la historia de la navegación. El conocimiento acerca de estas prestaciones, ha crecido desde la identificación de los factores clave relacionados con ellas(eslora, estabilidad, desplazamiento y superficie vélica), a una comprensión más completa de las complejas fuerzas y acoplamientos involucrados en el equilibrio. Junto con este conocimiento, la aparición de los ordenadores ha hecho posible llevar a cabo estas tareas de una forma sistemática. Esto incluye el cálculo detallado de fuerzas, pero también, el uso de estas fuerzas junto con la descripción de una embarcación a vela para la predicción de su comportamiento y, finalmente, sus prestaciones. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo proporcionar una definición global y abierta de un conjunto de modelos y reglas para describir y analizar este comportamiento. Esto se lleva a cabo sin aplicar restricciones en cuanto al tipo de barco o cálculo, sino de una forma generalizada, de modo que sea posible resolver cualquier situación, tanto estacionaria como en el dominio del tiempo. Para ello se comienza con una definición básica de los factores que condicionan el comportamiento de una embarcación a vela. A continuación se proporciona una metodología para gestionar el uso de datos de diferentes orígenes para el cálculo de fuerzas, siempre con el la solución del problema como objetivo. Esta última parte se plasma en un programa de ordenador, PASim, cuyo propósito es evaluar las prestaciones de diferentes ti pos de embarcaciones a vela en un amplio rango de condiciones. Varios ejemplos presentan diferentes usos de PASim con el objetivo de ilustrar algunos de los aspectos discutidos a lo largo de la definición del problema y su solución . Finalmente, se presenta una estructura global de cara a proporcionar una representación virtual de la embarcación real, en la cual, no solo e l comportamiento sino también su manejo, son cercanos a la experiencia de los navegantes en el mundo real. Esta estructura global se propone como el núcleo (un motor de software) de un simulador físico para el que se proporciona una especificación básica. ABSTRACT The assessment of the performance of sailing yachts, and ships in general, has been an objective for naval architects and sailors since the beginning of the history of navigation. The knowledge has grown from identifying the key factors that influence performance(length, stability, displacement and sail area), to a much more complete understanding of the complex forces and couplings involved in the equilibrium. Along with this knowledge, the advent of computers has made it possible to perform the associated tasks in a systematic way. This includes the detailed calculation of forces, but also the use of those forces, along with the description of a sailing yacht, to predict its behavior, and ultimately, its performance. The aim of this investigation is to provide a global and open definition of a set of models and rules to describe and analyze the behavior of a sailing yacht. This is done without applying any restriction to the type of yacht or calculation, but rather in a generalized way, capable of solving any possible situation, whether it is in a steady state or in the time domain. First, the basic definition of the factors that condition the behavior of a sailing yacht is given. Then, a methodology is provided to assist with the use of data from different origins for the calculation of forces, always aiming towards the solution of the problem. This last part is implemented as a computational tool, PASim, intended to assess the performance of different types of sailing yachts in a wide range of conditions. Several examples then present different uses of PASim, as a way to illustrate some of the aspects discussed throughout the definition of the problem and its solution. Finally, a global structure is presented to provide a general virtual representation of the real yacht, in which not only the behavior, but also its handling is close to the experience of the sailors in the real world. This global structure is proposed as the core (a software engine) of a physical yacht simulator, for which a basic specification is provided.

A statistical mechanical model for β-hairpin kinetics

Understanding the mechanism of protein secondary structure formation is an essential part of the protein-folding puzzle. Here, we describe a simple statistical mechanical model for the formation of a β-hairpin, the minimal structural element of the antiparallel β-pleated sheet. The model accurately describes the thermodynamic and kinetic behavior of a 16-residue, β-hairpin-forming peptide, successfully explaining its two-state behavior and apparent negative activation energy for folding. The model classifies structures according to their backbone conformation, defined by 15 pairs of dihedral angles, and is further simplified by considering only the 120 structures with contiguous stretches of native pairs of backbone dihedral angles. This single sequence approximation is tested by comparison with a more complete model that includes the 215 possible conformations and 15 × 215 possible kinetic transitions. Finally, we use the model to predict the equilibrium unfolding curves and kinetics for several variants of the β-hairpin peptide.

Empirical study on the maintainability of Web applications: Model-driven Engineering vs Code-centric

Model-driven Engineering (MDE) approaches are often acknowledged to improve the maintainability of the resulting applications. However, there is a scarcity of empirical evidence that backs their claimed benefits and limitations with respect to code-centric approaches. The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance and satisfaction of junior software maintainers while executing maintainability tasks on Web applications with two different development approaches, one being OOH4RIA, a model-driven approach, and the other being a code-centric approach based on Visual Studio .NET and the Agile Unified Process. We have conducted a quasi-experiment with 27 graduated students from the University of Alicante. They were randomly divided into two groups, and each group was assigned to a different Web application on which they performed a set of maintainability tasks. The results show that maintaining Web applications with OOH4RIA clearly improves the performance of subjects. It also tips the satisfaction balance in favor of OOH4RIA, although not significantly. Model-driven development methods seem to improve both the developers’ objective performance and subjective opinions on ease of use of the method. This notwithstanding, further experimentation is needed to be able to generalize the results to different populations, methods, languages and tools, different domains and different application sizes.

Chloride Penetration Prediction in Concrete through an Empirical Model Based on Constant Flux Diffusion

An empirical model based on constant flux is presented for chloride transport through concrete in atmospherical exposure conditions. A continuous supply of chlorides is assumed as a constant mass flux at the exposed concrete surface. The model is applied to experimental chloride profiles obtained from a real marine structure, and results are compared with the classical error-function model. The proposed model shows some advantages. It yields a better predictive capacity than the classical error-function model. The previously observed chloride surface concentration increases are compatible with the proposed model. Nevertheless, the predictive capacity of the model can fail if the concrete microstructure changes with time. The model seems to be appropriate for well-maturated concretes exposed to a marine environment in atmospherical conditions.

Testing a new Free Core Nutation empirical model

The Free Core Nutation (FCN) is a free mode of the Earth's rotation caused by the different material characteristics of the Earth's core and mantle. This causes the rotational axes of those layers to slightly diverge from each other, resulting in a wobble of the Earth's rotation axis comparable to nutations. In this paper we focus on estimating empirical FCN models using the observed nutations derived from the VLBI sessions between 1993 and 2013. Assuming a fixed value for the oscillation period, the time-variable amplitudes and phases are estimated by means of multiple sliding window analyses. The effects of using different a priori Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) in the derivation of models are also addressed. The optimal choice of the fundamental parameters of the model, namely the window width and step-size of its shift, is searched by performing a thorough experimental analysis using real data. The former analyses lead to the derivation of a model with a temporal resolution higher than the one used in the models currently available, with a sliding window reduced to 400 days and a day-by-day shift. It is shown that this new model increases the accuracy of the modeling of the observed Earth's rotation. Besides, empirical models determined from USNO Finals as a priori ERP present a slightly lower Weighted Root Mean Square (WRMS) of residuals than IERS 08 C04 along the whole period of VLBI observations, according to our computations. The model is also validated through comparisons with other recognized models. The level of agreement among them is satisfactory. Let us remark that our estimates give rise to the lowest residuals and seem to reproduce the FCN signal in more detail.

The Empirical Content of the Present Value Model: A survey of the instrumental uses of farmland prices. Factor Markets Working Document No. 53, June 2013

After reviewing the Present Value Model (PVM), in its basic form and with its major extensions, the authors carried out a literature review on the instrumental uses of farm land prices; namely what land prices may reveal in the framework of the PVM. Urban influence, non-market goods and climate change are topics where the PVM used with applied data may reveal farmers’ or landowners’ beliefs or subjective values, which are discussed in this paper. There is also extensive discussion of the topic of public regulations, and how they may affect land price directly, or through its present value.

A daily rainfall erosivity model for Western Amazonia

Rainfall erosivities as defined by the R factor from the universal soil loss equation were determined for all events during a two-year period at the station La Cuenca in western Amazonia. Three methods based on a power relationship between rainfall amount and erosivity were then applied to estimate event and daily rainfall erosivities from the respective rainfall amounts. A test of the resulting regression equations against an independent data set proved all three methods equally adequate in predicting rainfall erosivity from daily rainfall amount. We recommend the Richardson model for testing in the Amazon Basin, and its use with the coefficient from La Cuenca in western Amazonia.

Empirical guidelines for use of irregular wave model to estimate nearshore wave height /

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