Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Effects of increases in temperature and nutrients on phytoplankton community structure and photosynthesis in the Western English Channel

Anthropogenic climate change is exerting pressures on coastal ecosystems through increases in temperature, precipitation and ocean acidification. Phytoplankton community structure and photo-physiology are therefore adapting to these conditions. Changes in phytoplankton biomass and photosynthesis in relation to temperature and nutrient concentrations were assessed using a 14 year dataset from a coastal station in the Western English Channel (WEC). Dinoflagellate and coccolithophorid biomass exhibited a positive correlation with temperature, reaching the highest biomass at between 15 and 17°C. Diatoms showed a negative correlation with temperature, with highest biomass at 10°C. Chlorophyll a (chl a) normalised light-saturated photosynthetic rates (PBm) exhibited a hyperbolic response to increasing temperature, with an initial linear increase from 8 to 11°C, and reaching a plateau from 12°C. There was however no significant positive correlation between nutrients and phytoplankton biomass or PBm, which reflects the lag time between nutrient input and phytoplankton growth at this coastal site. The major phytoplankton groups that occurred at this site occupied distinct thermal niches, which in turn modified PBm. Increasing temperature, and higher water column stratification, was major factors in the initiation of dinoflagellates blooms at this site. Dinoflagellates blooms during summer also co-varied with silicate concentration, and acted as a tracer of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate from river run-off, which were subsequently reduced during these blooms. The data implies that increasing temperature and high river runoff during summer, will promote dinoflaglellates blooms in the WEC.

Temporal changes in total and size-fractioned chlorophyll-a in surface waters of three provinces in the Atlantic Ocean (September to November) between 2003 and 2010

Phytoplankton total chlorophyll concentration (TCHLa) and phytoplankton size structure are two important ecological indicators in biological oceanography. Using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data, collected from surface waters along the Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT), we examine temporal changes in TCHLa and phytoplankton size class (PSC: micro-, nano- and pico-phytoplankton) between 2003 and 2010 (September to November cruises only), in three ecological provinces of the Atlantic Ocean. The HPLC data indicate no significant change in TCHLa in northern and equatorial provinces, and an increase in the southern province. These changes were not significantly different to changes in TCHLa derived using satellite ocean-colour data over the same study period. Despite no change in AMT TCHLa in northern and equatorial provinces, significant differences in PSC were observed, related to changes in key diagnostic pigments (fucoxanthin, peridinin, 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin and zeaxanthin), with an increase in small cells (nano- and pico-phytoplankton) and a decrease in larger cells (micro-phytoplankton). When fitting a three-component model of phytoplankton size structure — designed to quantify the relationship between PSC and TCHLa to each AMT cruise, model parameters varied over the study period. Changes in the relationship between PSC and TCHLa have wide implications in ecology and marine biogeochemistry, and provide key information for the development and use of empirical ocean-colour algorithms. Results illustrate the importance of maintaining a time-series of in-situ observations in remote regions of the ocean, such as that acquired in the AMT programme.

Impact of sub-seabed CO2 leakage on macrobenthic community structure and diversity

A sub-seabed release of carbon dioxide (CO2) was conducted to assess the potential impacts of leakage from sub-seabed geological CO2 Capture and Storage CCS) on benthic macrofauna. CO2 gas was released 12 m below the seabed for 37 days, causing significant disruption to sediment carbonate chemistry. Regular macrofauna samples were collected from within the area of active CO2 leakage (Zone 1) and in three additional reference areas, 25 m, 75 m and 450 m from the centre of the leakage (Zones 2, 3 and 4 respectively). Macrofaunal community structure changed significantly in all zones during the study period. However, only the changes in Zone 1 were driven by the CO2 leakage with the changes in reference zones appearing to reflect natural seasonal succession and stochastic weather events. The impacts in Zone 1 occurred rapidly (within a few days), increased in severity through the duration of the leak, and continued to worsen after the leak had stopped. Considerable macrofaunal recovery was seen 18 days after the CO2 gas injection had stopped. In summary, small short-term CCS leakage events are likely to cause highly localised impacts on macrofaunal communities and there is the potential for rapid recovery to occur, depending on the characteristics of the communities and habitats impacted.

Can benthic community structure be used to predict the process of bioturbation in real ecosystems

Disentangling the roles of environmental change and natural environmental variability on biologically mediated ecosystem processes is paramount to predict future marine ecosystem functioning. Bioturbation, the biogenic mixing of sediments, has a regulating role in marine biogeochemical processes. However, our understanding of bioturbation as a community level process and of its environmental drivers is still limited by loose use of terminology, and a lack of consensus about what bioturbation is. To help resolve these challenges, this empirical study investigated the links between four different attributes of bioturbation (bioturbation depth, activity and distance, and biodiffusive transport); the ability of an index of bioturbation (BPc) to predict each of them; and their relation to seasonality, in a shallow coastal system – the Western Channel Observatory, UK. Bioturbation distance depended on changes in benthic community structure, while the other three attributes were more directly influenced by seasonality in food availability. In parallel, BPc successfully predicted bioturbation distance but not the other attributes of bioturbation. This study therefore highlights that community bioturbation results from this combination of processes responding to environmental variability at different time-scales. However, community level measurements of bioturbation across environmental variability are still scarce, and BPc is calculated using commonly available data on benthic community structure and the functional classification of invertebrates. Therefore, BPc could be used to support the growth of landscape scale bioturbation research, but future uses of the index need to consider which bioturbation attributes the index actually predicts. As BPc predicts bioturbation distance, estimated here using a random-walk model applicable to community settings, studies using either of the metrics should be directly comparable and contribute to a more integrated future for bioturbation research.

Disentangling the impacts of heat wave magnitude, duration and timing on the structure and diversity of sessile marine assemblages

Extreme climatic events, including heat waves (HWs) and severe storms, influence the structure of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Despite growing consensus that anthropogenic climate change will increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of extreme events, current understanding of their impact on communities and ecosystems is limited. Here, we used sessile invertebrates on settlement panels as model assemblages to examine the influence of HW magnitude, duration and timing on marine biodiversity patterns. Settlement panels were deployed in a marina in southwest UK for ≥5 weeks, to allow sufficient time for colonisation and development of sessile fauna, before being subjected to simulated HWs in a mesocosm facility. Replicate panel assemblages were held at ambient sea temperature (∼17 °C), or +3 °C or +5 °C for a period of 1 or 2 weeks, before being returned to the marina for a recovery phase of 2–3 weeks. The 10-week experiment was repeated 3 times, staggered throughout summer, to examine the influence of HW timing on community impacts. Contrary to our expectations, the warming events had no clear, consistent impacts on the abundance of species or the structure of sessile assemblages. With the exception of 1 high-magnitude long-duration HW event, warming did not alter not assemblage structure, favour non-native species, nor lead to changes in richness, abundance or biomass of sessile faunal assemblages. The observed lack of effect may have been caused by a combination of (1) the use of relatively low magnitude, realistic heat wave treatments compared to previous studies (2), the greater resilience of mature adult sessile fauna compared to recruits and juveniles, and (3) the high thermal tolerance of the model organisms (i.e., temperate fouling species, principally bryozoans and ascidians). Our study demonstrates the importance of using realistic treatments when manipulating climate change variables, and also suggests that biogeographical context may influence community-level responses to short-term warming events, which are predicted to increase in severity in the future.

A tale of two seas: contrasting patterns of population structure in the small-spotted catshark across Europe.

Elasmobranchs represent important components of marine ecosystems, but they can be vulnerable to overexploitation. This has driven investigations into the population genetic structure of large-bodied pelagic sharks, but relatively little is known of population structure in smaller demersal taxa, which are perhaps more representative of the biodiversity of the group. This study explores spatial population genetic structure of the small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula), across European seas. The results show significant genetic differences among most of the Mediterranean sample collections, but no significant structure among Atlantic shelf areas. The data suggest the Mediterranean populations are likely to have persisted in a stable and structured environment during Pleistocene sea-level changes. Conversely, the Northeast Atlantic populations would have experienced major changes in habitat availability during glacial cycles, driving patterns of population reduction and expansion. The data also provide evidence of male-biased dispersal and female philopatry over large spatial scales, implying complex sex-determined differences in the behaviour of elasmobranchs. On the basis of this evidence, we suggest that patterns of connectivity are determined by trends of past habitat stability that provides opportunity for local adaptation in species exhibiting philopatric behaviour, implying that resilience of populations to fisheries and other stressors may differ across the range of species.

An unusually large phytoplankton spring bloom drives rapid changes in benthic diversity and ecosystem function

In 2012, the Western English Channel experienced an unusually large and long-lived phytoplankton spring bloom. When compared with data from the past 20 years, average phytoplankton biomass at Station L4 (part of the Western Channel Observatory) was approximately 3× greater and lasted 50% longer than any previous year. Regular (mostly weekly) box core samples were collected from this site before, during and after the bloom to determine its impact on macrofaunal abundance, diversity, biomass, community structure and function. The spring bloom of 2012 was shown to support a large and rapid response in the majority of benthic taxa and functional groups. However, key differences in the precise nature of this response, as well as in its timing, was observed between different macrofauna feeding groups. Deposit feeders responded almost instantly at the start of the bloom, primarily thorough an increase in abundance. Suspension feeders and opportunistic/predatory/carnivorous taxa responded slightly more slowly and primarily with an increase in biomass. At the end of the bloom a rapid decline in macrobenthic abundance, diversity and biomass closely followed the decline in phytoplankton biomass. With suspension feeders showing evidence of this decline a few weeks before deposit feeders, it was concluded that this collapse in benthic communities was driven primarily by food availability and competition. However, it is possible that environmental hypoxia and the presence of toxic benthic cyanobacteria could also have contributed to this decline. This study shows evidence for strong benthic–pelagic coupling at L4; a shallow (50 m), coastal, fine-sand habitat. It also demonstrates that in such habitats, it is not just planktonic organisms that demonstrate clear community phenology. Different functional groups within the benthic assemblage will respond to the spring bloom in specific manner, with implications for key ecosystem functions and processes, such as secondary production and bioturbation. Only by taking integrated benthic and pelagic observations over such fine temporal scales (weekly) was the current study able to identify the intimate structure of the benthic response. Similar studies from other habitats and under different bloom conditions are urgently needed to fully appreciate the strength of benthic–pelagic coupling in shallow coastal environments.

The Industrial Context of Occupational Mobility: Change in Structure

The neglect of a consideration of history has been a feature of mobility research. ‘History’ affects the results of analyses of social mobility by altering the occupational/industrial structure and by encouraging exchange mobility. Changes in industrial structure are rooted more directly in historical causes and can be seen as more fundamental than changes in occupational structure. Following a substantial review of the secondary literature on changes in industrial and occupational structure in Northern Ireland, loglinear analyses of intra- and intergenerational mobility tables for sociologically-derived cohort generations that incorporate occupational and industrial categories are presented. Structural and inheritance effects for industry are as significant as those for occupation. Given the well-established finding of ‘constant social fludity’ in mobility tables once structural effects are controlled, the inclusion of categorization by industry is necessary in order to reach an accurate understanding of occupational mobility and the role of historical change in mobility.

Effects of tip structure on the generation of metal clusters by an STM tip: a way to control the orientation of nanocrystallites?

The role of the crystalline orientation of the STM tip in the generation of metal clusters is studied by atom dynamics simulations. When a (111) facet is facing the surface, the process is accompanied by a perturbation of the surface stronger than that observed for more open tip structures. This implies a technological application: the possibility of orienting a nanocrystallite deposited on a tip according to the changes observed in the force on the tip.

Solvation Structure and Transport of Acidic Protons in Ionic Liquids: A First-principles Simulation Study

Ab initio simulations of a single molecule of HCl in liquid dimethyl imidazolium chloride [dmim][Cl] show that the acidic proton exists as a symmetric, linear ClHCl- species. Details of the solvation structure around this molecule are given. The proton-transfer process was investigated by applying a force along the antisymmetric stretch coordinate until the molecule broke. Changes in the free energy and local solvation structure during this process were investigated. In the reaction mechanism identified, a free chloride approaches the proton from the side. As the original ClHCl- distorts and the incoming chloride forms a new bond to the proton, one of the original chlorine atoms is expelled and a new linear molecule is formed.

Chemical ablation of gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor action by daily (Pro3) GIP administration improves glucose tolerance and ameliorates insulin resistance and abnormalities of islet structure in obesity-diabetes.

Glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (gastric inhibitory polypeptide [GIP]) is an important incretin hormone secreted by endocrine K-cells in response to nutrient ingestion. In this study, we investigated the effects of chemical ablation of GIP receptor (GIP-R) action on aspects of obesity-related diabetes using a stable and specific GIP-R antagonist, (Pro3)GIP. Young adult ob/ob mice received once-daily intraperitoneal injections of saline vehicle or (Pro3)GIP over an 11-day period. Nonfasting plasma glucose levels and the overall glycemic excursion (area under the curve) to a glucose load were significantly reduced (1.6-fold; P <0.05) in (Pro3)GIP-treated mice compared with controls. GIP-R ablation also significantly lowered overall plasma glucose (1.4-fold; P <0.05) and insulin (1.5-fold; P <0.05) responses to feeding. These changes were associated with significantly enhanced (1.6-fold; P <0.05) insulin sensitivity in the (Pro3)GIP-treated group. Daily injection of (Pro3)GIP reduced pancreatic insulin content (1.3-fold; P <0.05) and partially corrected the obesity-related islet hypertrophy and ß-cell hyperplasia of ob/ob mice. These comprehensive beneficial effects of (Pro3)GIP were reversed 9 days after cessation of treatment and were independent of food intake and body weight, which were unchanged. These studies highlight a role for GIP in obesity-related glucose intolerance and emphasize the potential of specific GIP-R antagonists as a new class of drugs for the alleviation of insulin resistance and treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Quaternary pollen analysis: recent progress in palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology

During the last decade Quaternary pollen analysis has developed towards improved pollen-taxonomical precision, automated pollen identification and more rigorous definition of pollen assemblage zones. There have been significant efforts to model the spatial representation of pollen records in lake sediments which is important for more precise interpretation of the pollen records in terms of past vegetation patterns. We review the difficulties in matching modelled post-glacial plant migration patterns with pollen-based palaeorecords and discuss the potential of DNA analysis of pollen to investigate the ancestry and past migration pathways of the plants. In population ecology there has been an acceleration of the widely advocated conceptual advance of pollen-analytical research from vaguely defined ‘environmental reconstructions’ towards investigating more precisely defined ecological problems aligned with the current ecological theories. Examples of such research have included an increasing number of investigations about the ecological impacts of past disturbances, often integrating pollen records with other palaeoecological data. Such an approach has also been applied to incorporate a time perspective to the questions of ecosystem restoration, nature conservation and forest management. New lines of research are the use of pollen analysis to study long-term patterns of vegetation diversity, such as the role of glacial-age vegetation fragmentation as a cause of Amazonian rain forest diversity, and to investigate links between pollen richness and past plant diversity. Palaeoclimatological use of pollen records has become more quantitative and has included more precise and rigorous testing of pollen-climate calibration models with modern climate data. These tests show the approximate nature of the models and warn against a too straightforward climatic interpretation of the small-scale variation in reconstructions. Pollenbased climate reconstructions over the Late Glacial–early Holocene boundary have indicated that pollen-stratigraphical changes have been rapid with no evidence for response lags. This does not rule out the possibility of migrational disequilibrium, however, as the rapid changes may be mostly due to nonmigrational responses of existing vegetation. It is therefore difficult to assess whether the amplitude of reconstructed climate change reflects real climate change. Other outstanding problems remain the obscure relationship of pollen production and climate, the role of human impact and other nonclimatic factors, and nonanalogue situations.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Pleistocene glaciation events shape genetic structure across the range of the American lobster, Homarus americanus

A north/south discontinuity along the northeastern coast of North America in the genetic structure of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) was detected using a suite of 13 microsatellite loci assessed using spatial analyses. Population genetic data laid over existing data on physiographic changes and sea-surface temperatures were used to reconstruct the Pleistocene distribution of this species. A postglacial northern-edge colonization model best explains the relative genetic homogeneity of the northern region compared to the southern region centred in the Gulf of Maine. Population genetic analyses identified significant structure (range of standardized theta 0-0.02) but no significant evidence for isolation by distance. The novel application of spatial genetic analyses to a marine species allowed us to interpret these results by providing a greater insight into the evolutionary factors responsible for shaping the genetic structure of this species throughout is natural range.