Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them

Characterizing major avalanche episodes in space and time in the twentieth and early twentyfirst centuries in the Catalan Pyrenees

With the aim of better understanding avalanche risk in the Catalan Pyrenees, the present work focuses on the analysis of major (or destructive) avalanches. For such purpose major avalanche cartography was made by an exhaustive photointerpretation of several flights, winter and summer field surveys and inquiries to local population. Major avalanche events were used to quantify the magnitude of the episodes during which they occurred, and a Major Avalanche Activity Magnitude Index (MAAMI) was developed. This index is based on the number of major avalanches registered and its estimated frequency in a given time period, hence it quantifies the magnitude of a major avalanche episode or winter. Furthermore, it permits a comparison of the magnitude between major avalanche episodes in a given mountain range, or between mountain ranges, and for a long enough period, it should allow analysis of temporal trends. Major episodes from winter 1995/96 to 2013/14 were reconstructed. Their magnitude, frequency and extent were also assessed. During the last 19 winters, the episodes of January 22-23 and February 6-8 in 1996 were those with highest MAAMI values,followed by January 30-31, 2003, January 29, 2006, and January 24-25, 2014. To analyze the whole twentieth century, a simplified MAAMI was defined in order to attain the same purpose with a less complete dataset. With less accuracy, the same parameters were obtained at winter time resolution throughout the twentieth century. Again, 1995/96 winter had the highest MAAMI value followed by 1971/72, 1974/75 and 1937/38 winter seasons. The analysis of the spatial extent of the different episodes allowed refining the demarcation of nivological regions, and improving our knowledge about the atmospheric patterns that cause major episodes and their climatic interpretation. In some cases, the importance of considering a major avalanche episode as the result of a previous preparatory period, followed by a triggering one was revealed.

Self-reported sitting time and physical activity: interactive associations with mental well-being and productivity in office employees

Abstract Background: Little is known about how sitting time, alone or in combination with markers of physical activity (PA), influences mental well-being and work productivity. Given the need to develop workplace PA interventions that target employees’ health related efficiency outcomes; this study examined the associations between self-reported sitting time, PA, mental well-being and work productivity in office employees. Methods: Descriptive cross-sectional study. Spanish university office employees (n = 557) completed a survey measuring socio-demographics, total and domain specific (work and travel) self-reported sitting time, PA (International Physical Activity Questionnaire short version), mental well-being (Warwick-Edinburg Mental Well-Being Scale) and work productivity (Work Limitations Questionnaire). Multivariate linear regression analyses determined associations between the main variables adjusted for gender, age, body mass index and occupation. PA levels (low, moderate and high) were introduced into the model to examine interactive associations. Results: Higher volumes of PA were related to higher mental well-being, work productivity and spending less time sitting at work, throughout the working day and travelling during the week, including the weekends (p < 0.05). Greater levels of sitting during weekends was associated with lower mental well-being (p < 0.05). Similarly, more sitting while travelling at weekends was linked to lower work productivity (p < 0.05). In highly active employees, higher sitting times on work days and occupational sitting were associated with decreased mental well-being (p < 0.05). Higher sitting times while travelling on weekend days was also linked to lower work productivity in the highly active (p < 0.05). No significant associations were observed in low active employees. Conclusions: Employees’ PA levels exerts different influences on the associations between sitting time, mental well-being and work productivity. The specific associations and the broad sweep of evidence in the current study suggest that workplace PA strategies to improve the mental well-being and productivity of all employees should focus on reducing sitting time alongside efforts to increase PA.

Photomultiplier nonlinear response in time-domain laser-induced luminescence spectroscopy

A new procedure to find the limiting range of the photomultiplier linear response of a low-cost, digital oscilloscope-based time-resolved laser-induced luminescence spectrometer (TRLS), is presented. A systematic investigation on the instrument response function with different signal input terminations, and the relationship between the luminescence intensity reaching the photomultiplier and the measured decay time are described. These investigations establish that setting the maximum intensity of the luminescence signal below 0.3V guarantees, for signal input terminations equal or higher than 99.7 ohm, a linear photomultiplier response.

Perfil espacial e temporal de poluentes nas águas da represa municipal de São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brasil

In this manuscript, seasonal and spatial trends of water collected from two sampling places in the Preto River in the Turvo-Grande watershed were evaluated. Water samples were collected during June/07 to July/08 and parameters sulphate, total organic carbon, ammonia, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, dissolved total solids and nitrate were quantified. Seasonal trend indicated sanitary effluents as a point source of contamination in both sampling points. Vertical trends demonstrated that the Municipal Dam was not stratified and received a diffuse source of pollutants from flooding and agriculture runoffs. It was also verified that there is relatively fast ammonia consumption kinetics having a half-life time of 1.43 h which can explain the low ammonia concentrations found in these aquatic bodies.

Analysis of patterns in mining time series using Qlucore

Raw measurement data does not always immediately convey useful information, but applying mathematical statistical analysis tools into measurement data can improve the situation. Data analysis can offer benefits like acquiring meaningful insight from the dataset, basing critical decisions on the findings, and ruling out human bias through proper statistical treatment. In this thesis we analyze data from an industrial mineral processing plant with the aim of studying the possibility of forecasting the quality of the final product, given by one variable, with a model based on the other variables. For the study mathematical tools like Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) and Sparse Bayesian regression (SB) are used. Later on, linear regression is used to build a model based on a subset of variables that seem to have most significant weights in the SB model. The results obtained from QOE show that the variable representing the desired final product does not correlate with other variables. For SB and linear regression, the results show that both SB and linear regression models built on 1-day averaged data seriously underestimate the variance of true data, whereas the two models built on 1-month averaged data are reliable and able to explain a larger proportion of variability in the available data, making them suitable for prediction purposes. However, it is concluded that no single model can fit well the whole available dataset and therefore, it is proposed for future work to make piecewise non linear regression models if the same available dataset is used, or the plant to provide another dataset that should be collected in a more systematic fashion than the present data for further analysis.

Análise temporal da sarna da macieira nas cultivares Royal Gala e Fuji sob os sistemas convencional e orgânico de produção

A sarna da macieira, causada por Venturia inaequalis, é uma das principais doenças da cultura. Devido à grande preocupação com os riscos de contaminação ambiental e intoxicação humana, o cultivo orgânico surge como uma alternativa, buscando preservar a qualidade do produto final em relação ao sistema convencional. Com o objetivo de avaliar a epidemiologia da sarna da macieira nos sistemas convencional e orgânico de produção, foi empregada a técnica de análise da dinâmica temporal, nas cultivares Royal Gala e Fuji, nas condições edafo-climáticas do Sul do Brasil. A incidência foi quantificada semanalmente, gerando 16 mapas em cada sistema de produção e quinzenalmente, a severidade da doença foi avaliada em 100 folhas, distribuídas em quatro ramos, de acordo com escala diagramática específica, com 12 repetições. Foram plotadas curvas de progresso da doença e as epidemias comparadas em relação a) início do aparecimento dos sintomas (IAS); b) tempo para atingir a máxima intensidade da doença (TAMID); c) valor máximo de severidade da doença (y max) e d) área abaixo da curva de progresso da doença (AACPD). Os dados de incidência foram analisados por meio de análise de regressão linear simples, ajustados para três modelos empíricos, Logístico, Monomolecular e Gompertz. As cultivares avaliadas foram suscetíveis à V. inaequalis, com diferenças significativas entre as cultivares e entre os sistemas de produção. Houve maiores níveis de intensidade de doença e taxa de progresso da doença (r) no sistema orgânico que no sistema convencional de produção, sendo que o modelo mais apropriado para descrever a curva de progresso da doença foi o Logístico.

DEVELOPMENT OF LOGIC IN INDIA: SIGNIFICANCE OF 'THE DUOLOGUE BETWEEN PĀYĀSI AND KASSAPA' ("LONG DISCOURSES")

ABSTRACT 'The Duologue of King/Governor Pāyāsi' ("Long Discourses") has long been recognised as a source for the proto-materialism current at the time of the Buddha. What needs to be stressed is the significance of the text as a pointer to the development of Logic in India. Perception (observation and experiment employing the joint method of agreement and difference), which is an accepted method of experimental enquiry, and reasoning from analogy, which can lead at best to a probable conclusion - these two are the only means employed to settle the dispute concerning the existence of the other-world. The Jain version of the same duologue-cum-parable, though varying in minor details regarding the name and identity of the monk refuting the king/governor, contains the same contrast, namely, perception versus analogical reasoning. There can be little doubt that the original parable was conceived with a view to asserting the existence of the other-world. In the Kaṭha Upaniṣad (sixth century BCE), an earlier Brahmanical text, however, instead of argument by analogy, verbal testimony (śabda) was invoked to settle the same point. Naciketas is assailed by doubt about the existence of a person after his or her death. The authority of Yama, the Pluto of Indian mythology, is invoked to convince him that the other-world does exist. Thus, the three parables taken together exhibit three means of knowledge in operation: verbal testimony and argument by analogy pitted against perception.

Dinâmica temporal e espacial da begomovirose causada por Tomato yellow vein streak virus em tomateiro na região de Campinas-SP

O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar os padrões temporal e espacial do Tomato yellow vein streak virus (ToYVSV) em tomatais cultivados em condições de campo, no município de Sumaré, e de estufa plástica, na região de Elias Fausto, Estado de São Paulo. No ensaio de campo, plantado com a variedade Alambra, foram avaliadas 4.032 plantas, distribuídas em oito blocos. Em oito estufas plásticas, com plantios escalonados da variedade Ikram, foram avaliadas 6.016 plantas. As avaliações foram feitas com base nos sintomas característicos induzidos por esse vírus. A confirmação da identidade do vírus foi feita por meio da análise da seqüência de nucleotídeos de parte do DNA-A viral (genes AV1 e AC3). No ensaio em condições de campo, a incidência da doença evoluiu lentamente, desde um mínimo de 0,002 (proporção de plantas sintomáticas) até um máximo de 0,0497. Mesmo assim, foi possível constatar um efeito de borda, pois a incidência média de plantas doentes nos blocos situados nos bordos da área foi 2,1 vezes maior do que naqueles internos. O progresso da incidência da doença foi linear, o que indica que novas infecções foram devidas principalmente a um influxo constante de vetores virulíferos de fora para dentro da área avaliada. Nos plantios em estufas plásticas, os níveis finais de doença foram fortemente dependentes da época de plantio, com médias variando de 4,8% a 69,3%. A distribuição espacial de plantas sintomáticas nesses plantios foi fortemente agregada. Essa agregação provavelmente não se deve a infecções secundárias dentro das estufas plásticas, mas sim à concentração de plantas sintomáticas nos bordos das estufas, conseqüência da migração de vetores virulíferos a partir de áreas externas à estufa. Com base nesses resultados, sugere-se a eliminação de fontes de inóculo representadas por plantios mais velhos de tomateiro e por hospedeiras do vírus na vegetação espontânea como uma das principais medidas para o manejo da doença.

Teaching mathematics and programming : new approaches with empirical evaluation

Programming and mathematics are core areas of computer science (CS) and consequently also important parts of CS education. Introductory instruction in these two topics is, however, not without problems. Studies show that CS students find programming difficult to learn and that teaching mathematical topics to CS novices is challenging. One reason for the latter is the disconnection between mathematics and programming found in many CS curricula, which results in students not seeing the relevance of the subject for their studies. In addition, reports indicate that students' mathematical capability and maturity levels are dropping. The challenges faced when teaching mathematics and programming at CS departments can also be traced back to gaps in students' prior education. In Finland the high school curriculum does not include CS as a subject; instead, focus is on learning to use the computer and its applications as tools. Similarly, many of the mathematics courses emphasize application of formulas, while logic, formalisms and proofs, which are important in CS, are avoided. Consequently, high school graduates are not well prepared for studies in CS. Motivated by these challenges, the goal of the present work is to describe new approaches to teaching mathematics and programming aimed at addressing these issues: Structured derivations is a logic-based approach to teaching mathematics, where formalisms and justifications are made explicit. The aim is to help students become better at communicating their reasoning using mathematical language and logical notation at the same time as they become more confident with formalisms. The Python programming language was originally designed with education in mind, and has a simple syntax compared to many other popular languages. The aim of using it in instruction is to address algorithms and their implementation in a way that allows focus to be put on learning algorithmic thinking and programming instead of on learning a complex syntax. Invariant based programming is a diagrammatic approach to developing programs that are correct by construction. The approach is based on elementary propositional and predicate logic, and makes explicit the underlying mathematical foundations of programming. The aim is also to show how mathematics in general, and logic in particular, can be used to create better programs.

Formal semantics for propositional attitudes

Contemporary logic is confined to a few paradigmatic attitudes such as belief, knowledge, desire and intention. My purpose is to present a general model-theoretical semantics of propositional attitudes of any cognitive or volitive mode. In my view, one can recursively define the set of all psychological modes of attitudes. As Descartes anticipated, the two primitive modes are those of belief and desire. Complex modes are obtained by adding to primitive modes special cognitive and volitive ways or special propositional content or preparatory conditions. According to standard logic of attitudes (Hintikka), human agents are either perfectly rational or totally irrational. I will proceed to a finer analysis of propositional attitudes that accounts for our imperfect but minimal rationality. For that purpose I will use a non standard predicative logic according to which propositions with the same truth conditions can have different cognitive values and I will explicate subjective in addition to objective possibilities. Next I will enumerate valid laws of my general logic of propositional attitudes. At the end I will state principles according to which minimally rational agents dynamically revise attitudes of any mode.

Matrix- based logic for avoiding paradoxes and its paraconsistent alternative

The present article shows that there are consistent and decidable many- valued systems of propositional logic which satisfy two or all the three criteria for non- trivial inconsistent theories by da Costa (1974). The weaker one of these paraconsistent system is also able to avoid a series of paradoxes which come up when classical logic is applied to empirical sciences. These paraconsistent systems are based on a 6- valued system of propositional logic for avoiding difficulties in several domains of empirical science (Weingartner (2009)).

The transcendence of time in the epistemology of observation from a phenomenological standpoint

In this article I deal with time as a notion of epistemological content associated though with the notion of a subjective consciousness co-constitutive of physical reality. In this phenomenologically grounded approach I attempt to establish a 'metaphysical' aspect of time, within a strictly epistemological context, in the sense of an underlying absolute subjectivity which is non-objectifiable within objective temporality and thus non-susceptible of any ontological designation. My arguments stem, on the one hand, from a version of quantum-mechanical theory (History Projection Operator theory, HPO theory) in view of its formal treatment of two different aspects of time within a quantum context. The discrete, partial-ordering properties (the notions of before and after) and the dynamical-parameter properties reflected in the wave equations of motion. On the other hand, to strengthen my arguments for a transcendental factor of temporality, I attempt an interpretation of some relevant conclusions in the work of J. Eccles ([5]) and of certain results of experimental research of S. Deahaene et al. ([2]) and others.

Uso do produto MOD13Q1 do sensor Modis para análise temporal e mapeamento das florestas nas Serras do Sudeste e Campanha Meridional do Rio Grande do Sul

Imagens NDVI (Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada) do sensor Modis foram utilizadas para mapear as classes de uso e cobertura da terra nas Serras do Sudeste e Campanha Meridional do Rio Grande do Sul. A metodologia compreendeu a elaboração de um banco de dados espaciais e a aplicação de técnicas de processamento digital (contraste linear, classificação digital e operações aritméticas) sobre imagens dos satélites Landsat e Terra de diversas datas. Os resultados indicaram que a cobertura florestal passou de 8,6% para 11,6% e 14,3% da área total da microrregião Serras do Sudeste, entre os anos 2000, 2004 e 2008. Na Campanha Meridional, a expansão da cobertura florestal passou de 11,1% para 11,2% e 11,5% da área total no mesmo período. Conclui-se que imagens MOD13Q1, de baixa resolução espacial (250 m), podem ser usadas em grandes áreas para mapear florestas e os demais temas adequadamente.