Occupancy of a single site by many random walkers

We consider an infinite number of noninteracting lattice random walkers with the goal of determining statistical properties of the time, out of a total time T, that a single site has been occupied by n random walkers. Initially the random walkers are assumed uniformly distributed on the lattice except for the target site at the origin, which is unoccupied. The random-walk model is taken to be a continuous-time random walk and the pausing-time density at the target site is allowed to differ from the pausing-time density at other sites. We calculate the dependence of the mean time of occupancy by n random walkers as a function of n and the observation time T. We also find the variance for the cumulative time during which the site is unoccupied. The large-T behavior of the variance differs according as the random walk is transient or recurrent. It is shown that the variance is proportional to T at large T in three or more dimensions, it is proportional to T3/2 in one dimension and to TlnT in two dimensions.

Risk of falls and major bleeds in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy.

BACKGROUND: The risk of falls is the most commonly cited reason for not providing oral anticoagulation, although the risk of bleeding associated with falls on oral anticoagulants is still debated. We aimed to evaluate whether patients on oral anticoagulation with high falls risk have an increased risk of major bleeding. METHODS: We prospectively studied consecutive adult medical patients who were discharged on oral anticoagulants. The outcome was the time to a first major bleed within a 12-month follow-up period adjusted for age, sex, alcohol abuse, number of drugs, concomitant treatment with antiplatelet agents, and history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. RESULTS: Among the 515 enrolled patients, 35 patients had a first major bleed during follow-up (incidence rate: 7.5 per 100 patient-years). Overall, 308 patients (59.8%) were at high risk of falls, and these patients had a nonsignificantly higher crude incidence rate of major bleeding than patients at low risk of falls (8.0 vs 6.8 per 100 patient-years, P=.64). In multivariate analysis, a high falls risk was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of a major bleed (hazard ratio 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-2.21). Overall, only 3 major bleeds occurred directly after a fall (incidence rate: 0.6 per 100 patient-years). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective cohort, patients on oral anticoagulants at high risk of falls did not have a significantly increased risk of major bleeds. These findings suggest that being at risk of falls is not a valid reason to avoid oral anticoagulants in medical patients.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.

Association of ischaemic stroke subtype with long-term cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There is no strong evidence that all ischaemic stroke types are associated with high cardiovascular risk. Our aim was to investigate whether all ischaemic stroke types are associated with high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: All consecutive patients with ischaemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2010 were categorized according to the TOAST classification and were followed up for up to 10 years. Outcomes assessed were cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke recurrence, and a composite cardiovascular outcome consisting of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, acute heart failure, sudden cardiac death, stroke recurrence and aortic aneurysm rupture. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of each end-point in each patient group. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the independent covariates of each end-point. RESULTS: Two thousand seven hundred and thirty patients were followed up for 48.1 ± 41.9 months. The cumulative probabilities of 10-year cardiovascular mortality in patients with cardioembolic stroke [46.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 40.6-52.8], lacunar stroke (22.1%, 95% CI 16.2-28.0) or undetermined stroke (35.2%, 95% CI 27.8-42.6) were either similar to or higher than those of patients with large-artery atherosclerotic stroke (LAA) (28.7%, 95% CI 22.4-35.0). Compared with LAA, all other TOAST types had a higher probability of 10-year stroke recurrence. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, compared with patients with LAA, patients with any other stroke type were associated with similar or higher risk for the outcomes of overall mortality, cardiovascular mortality, stroke recurrence and composite cardiovascular outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Large-artery atherosclerotic stroke and cardioembolic stroke are associated with the highest risk for future cardiovascular events, with the latter carrying at least as high a risk as LAA stroke.

Use of palm-oil by-products in chicken and rabbit feeds: effect on the fatty acid and tocol composition of meat, liver and plasma

This study was undertaken in the framework of a larger European project dealing with the characterization of fat co- and by-products from the food chain, available for feed uses. In this study, we compare the effects, on the fatty acid (FA) and tocol composition of chicken and rabbit tissues, of the addition to feeds of a palm fatty acid distillate, very low in trans fatty acids (TFA), and two levels of the corresponding hydrogenated by-product, containing intermediate and high levels of TFA. Thus, the experimental design included three treatments, formulated for each species, containing the three levels of TFA defined above. Obviously, due to the use of hydrogenated fats, the levels of saturated fatty acids (SFA) show clear differences between the three dietary treatments. The results show that diets high in TFA (76 g/kg fat) compared with those low in TFA (4.4 g/kg fat) led to a lower content of tocopherols and tocotrienols in tissues, although these differences were not always statistically significant, and show a different pattern for rabbit and chicken. The TFA content in meat, liver and plasma increased from low-to-high TFA feeds in both chicken and rabbit. However, the transfer ratios from feed were not proportional to the TFA levels in feeds, reflecting certain differences according to the animal species. Moreover, feeds containing fats higher in TFA induced significant changes in tissue SFA, monounsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids composition, but different patterns can be described for chicken and rabbit and for each type of tissue.

Diffusive transport in spatially periodic hydrodynamic flows

We calculate the effective diffusion coefficient in convective flows which are well described by one spatial mode. We use an expansion in the distance from onset and homogenization methods to obtain an explicit expression for the transport coefficient. We find that spatially periodic fluid flow enhances the molecular diffusion D by a term proportional to D-1. This enhancement should be easy to observe in experiments, since D is a small number.

Measurement of biologically available naphthalene in gas and aqueous phases by use of a Pseudomonas putida biosensor.

Genetically constructed microbial biosensors for measuring organic pollutants are mostly applied in aqueous samples. Unfortunately, the detection limit of most biosensors is insufficient to detect pollutants at low but environmentally relevant concentrations. However, organic pollutants with low levels of water solubility often have significant gas-water partitioning coefficients, which in principle makes it possible to measure such compounds in the gas rather than the aqueous phase. Here we describe the first use of a microbial biosensor for measuring organic pollutants directly in the gas phase. For this purpose, we reconstructed a bioluminescent Pseudomonas putida naphthalene biosensor strain to carry the NAH7 plasmid and a chromosomally inserted gene fusion between the sal promoter and the luxAB genes. Specific calibration studies were performed with suspended and filter-immobilized biosensor cells, in aqueous solution and in the gas phase. Gas phase measurements with filter-immobilized biosensor cells in closed flasks, with a naphthalene-contaminated aqueous phase, showed that the biosensor cells can measure naphthalene effectively. The biosensor cells on the filter responded with increasing light output proportional to the naphthalene concentration added to the water phase, even though only a small proportion of the naphthalene was present in the gas phase. In fact, the biosensor cells could concentrate a larger proportion of naphthalene through the gas phase than in the aqueous suspension, probably due to faster transport of naphthalene to the cells in the gas phase. This led to a 10-fold lower detectable aqueous naphthalene concentration (50 nM instead of 0.5 micro M). Thus, the use of bacterial biosensors for measuring organic pollutants in the gas phase is a valid method for increasing the sensitivity of these valuable biological devices.

Prognostic role of KRAS and BRAF in stage II and III resected colon cancer: results of the translational study on the PETACC-3, EORTC 40993, SAKK 60-00 trial.

PURPOSE: Mutations within the KRAS proto-oncogene have predictive value but are of uncertain prognostic value in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. We took advantage of PETACC-3, an adjuvant trial with 3,278 patients with stage II to III colon cancer, to evaluate the prognostic value of KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation status in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks (n = 1,564) were prospectively collected and DNA was extracted from tissue sections from 1,404 cases. Planned analysis of KRAS exon 2 and BRAF exon 15 mutations was performed by allele-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction. Survival analyses were based on univariate and multivariate proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation rates were 37.0% and 7.9%, respectively, and were not significantly different according to tumor stage. In a multivariate analysis containing stage, tumor site, nodal status, sex, age, grade, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status, KRAS mutation was associated with grade (P = .0016), while BRAF mutation was significantly associated with female sex (P = .017), and highly significantly associated with right-sided tumors, older age, high grade, and MSI-high tumors (all P < 10(-4)). In univariate and multivariate analysis, KRAS mutations did not have a major prognostic value regarding relapse-free survival (RFS) or overall survival (OS). BRAF mutation was not prognostic for RFS, but was for OS, particularly in patients with MSI-low (MSI-L) and stable (MSI-S) tumors (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.4; P = .0003). CONCLUSION: In stage II-III colon cancer, the KRAS mutation status does not have major prognostic value. BRAF is prognostic for OS in MS-L/S tumors.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Rapid detection of Staphylococcus aureus strains with reduced susceptibility to vancomycin by isothermal microcalorimetry.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) usually harbors a vancomycin-susceptible phenotype (VSSA) but can exhibit reduced vancomycin susceptibility phenotypes that can be heterogeneous-intermediate (hVISA), intermediate (VISA), or fully resistant (VRSA). Current detection techniques (e.g., Etest and population analysis profiles [PAPs]) are slow and time-consuming. We investigated the potential of microcalorimetry to detect reduced susceptibilities to vancomycin in MRSA strains. Representative MSSA, VSSA, hVISA, VISA, and VRSA reference strains, as well as clinical isolates, were used. PAPs were performed by standard methods. Microcalorimetry was performed by inoculating 5 × 10(7) CFU of overnight cultures into 3-ml vials of brain heart infusion broth supplemented with increasing concentrations of vancomycin, and growth-related heat production was measured at 37°C. For the reference strains, no heat production was detected in the VSSA isolates at vancomycin concentrations of >3 μg/ml during the 72 h of incubation. The hVISA and VISA strains showed heat production with concentration-proportional delays of up to 6 μg/ml in 48 h and up to 12 μg/ml in 72 h, respectively. The VRSA strain showed heat production at concentrations up to 16 μg/ml in 12 h. The testing of clinical strains indicated an excellent negative predictive value, allowing us to rule out a decreased vancomycin susceptibility phenotype in <8 h of incubation. Sequential isolates from a patient undergoing vancomycin therapy showed evolving microcalorimetric profiles up to a VISA phenotype. Microcalorimetry was able to detect strains with reduced susceptibilities to vancomycin in <8 h. The measurement of bacterial heat production might represent a simple and rapid method for the detection of reduced susceptibilities to vancomycin in MRSA strains.

Le "neurally adjusted ventilatory assist": vers une révolution de la ventilation mécanique [Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist: a revolution of mechanical ventilation?].

Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist or NAVA is a new assisted ventilatory mode which, in comparison with pressure support, leads to improved patient-ventilator synchrony and a more variable ventilatory pattern. It also improves arterial oxygenation. With NAVA, the electrical activity of the diaphragm is recorded through a nasogastric tube equipped with electrodes. This electrical activity is then used to pilot the ventilator. With NAVA, the patient's respiratory pattern controls the ventilator's timing of triggering and cycling as well as the magnitude of pressurization, which is proportional to inspiratory demand. The effect of NAVA on patient outcome remains to be determined through well-designed prospective studies.

Detection of HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral treatment and clinical progression in a large European cohort study.

OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

Measurement of Ice Scraping Forces on Snow-Plow Underbody Blades, HR-372, 1997

In this study, several new cutting edges for removal of ice from the roadway were tested in a series of closed road tests. These new cutting edges consisted of a variety of serrated shapes. The study also included measurement of ice scraping forces by in-service trucks. These trucks were instrumented in a similar manner as the truck used in the closed-road tests. Results from the closed-road and in-service tests were analyzed by two parameters. The first parameter is the scraping effectiveness, which is defined as the average horizontal force experienced by a cutting edge. The amount of ice scraped from the roadway is directly proportional to the magnitude of the scraping effectiveness. Thus an increase in scraping effectiveness indicates an increase in the amount of ice being scraped from the roadway. The second parameter is force angle, which is defined as tan to the -1 power [vertical force/horizontal force]. A combination of a minimal force angle and a maximized scraping effectiveness represents a case in which the maximal amount of ice is being removed from the pavement without an exceptionally large vertical force. Results indicate that each cutting edge produced a maximal scraping effectiveness with a testing configuration of a 15 deg blade angle and a 23,000 lb. download force. Results also indicate that each cutting edge produced a minimal force angle with a testing configuration of a 15 deg blade angle and a 10,000 lb. download force. Results from the in-service trucks produced similar data and also similar trends within the data when compared to the results of the closed-road tests. This result is most important, as it suggests that the closed-road tests do provide an accurate measure of ice scraping forces for a given blade and configuration of that blade. Thus if the closed-road tests indicate that certain blades perform well, there is now excellent reason to conduct full scale tests of such blades.

Serum resistin concentrations and risk of new onset heart failure in older persons: the health, aging, and body composition (Health ABC) study.

OBJECTIVE: Resistin is associated with inflammation and insulin resistance and exerts direct effects on myocardial cells including hypertrophy and altered contraction. We investigated the association of serum resistin concentrations with risk for incident heart failure (HF) in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 2902 older persons without prevalent HF (age, 73.6+/-2.9 years; 48.1% men; 58.8% white) enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Correlation between baseline serum resistin concentrations (20.3+/-10.0 ng/mL) and clinical variables, biochemistry panel, markers of inflammation and insulin resistance, adipocytokines, and measures of adiposity was weak (all rho <0.25). During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 341 participants (11.8%) developed HF. Resistin was strongly associated with risk for incident HF in Cox proportional hazards models controlling for clinical variables, biomarkers, and measures of adiposity (HR, 1.15 per 10.0 ng/mL in adjusted model; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.27; P=0.003). Results were comparable across sex, race, diabetes mellitus, and prevalent and incident coronary heart disease subgroups. In participants with available left ventricular ejection fraction at HF diagnosis (265 of 341; 77.7%), association of resistin with HF risk was comparable for cases with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Serum resistin concentrations are independently associated with risk for incident HF in older persons.

Data Acquisition and Computer Plotting of Delamtect Data, HR-269, 1985

The overall system is designed to permit automatic collection of delamination field data for bridge decks. In addition to measuring and recording the data in the field, the system provides for transferring the recorded data to a personal computer for processing and plotting. This permits rapid turnaround from data collection to a finished plot of the results in a fraction of the time previously required for manual analysis of the analog data captured on a strip chart recorder. In normal operation the Delamtect provides an analog voltage for each of two channels which is proportional to the extent of any delamination. These voltages are recorded on a strip chart for later visual analysis. An event marker voltage, produced by a momentary push button on the handle, is also provided by the Delamtect and recorded on a third channel of the analog recorder.