887 resultados para probability of occurrence
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ABSTRACT:¦BACKGROUND: The Spiritual Distress Assessment Tool (SDAT) is a 5-item instrument developed to assess unmet spiritual needs in hospitalized elderly patients and to determine the presence of spiritual distress. The objective of this study was to investigate the SDAT psychometric properties.¦METHODS: This cross-sectional study was performed in a Geriatric Rehabilitation Unit. Patients (N = 203), aged 65 years and over with Mini Mental State Exam score ≥ 20, were consecutively enrolled over a 6-month period. Data on health, functional, cognitive, affective and spiritual status were collected upon admission. Interviews using the SDAT (score from 0 to 15, higher scores indicating higher distress) were conducted by a trained chaplain. Factor analysis, measures of internal consistency (inter-item and item-to-total correlations, Cronbach α), and reliability (intra-rater and inter-rater) were performed. Criterion-related validity was assessed using the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual well-being (FACIT-Sp) and the question "Are you at peace?" as criterion-standard. Concurrent and predictive validity were assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), occurrence of a family meeting, hospital length of stay (LOS) and destination at discharge.¦RESULTS: SDAT scores ranged from 1 to 11 (mean 5.6 ± 2.4). Overall, 65.0% (132/203) of the patients reported some spiritual distress on SDAT total score and 22.2% (45/203) reported at least one severe unmet spiritual need. A two-factor solution explained 60% of the variance. Inter-item correlations ranged from 0.11 to 0.41 (eight out of ten with P < 0.05). Item-to-total correlations ranged from 0.57 to 0.66 (all P < 0.001). Cronbach α was acceptable (0.60). Intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities were high (Intraclass Correlation Coefficients ranging from 0.87 to 0.96). SDAT correlated significantly with the FACIT-Sp, "Are you at peace?", GDS (Rho -0.45, -0.33, and 0.43, respectively, all P < .001), and LOS (Rho 0.15, P = .03). Compared with patients showing no severely unmet spiritual need, patients with at least one severe unmet spiritual need had higher odds of occurrence of a family meeting (adjOR 4.7, 95%CI 1.4-16.3, P = .02) and were more often discharged to a nursing home (13.3% vs 3.8%; P = .027).¦CONCLUSIONS: SDAT has acceptable psychometrics properties and appears to be a valid and reliable instrument to assess spiritual distress in elderly hospitalized patients.
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Tools to predict fracture risk are useful for selecting patients for pharmacological therapy in order to reduce fracture risk and redirect limited healthcare resources to those who are most likely to benefit. FRAX® is a World Health Organization fracture risk assessment algorithm for estimating the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture. Effective application of FRAX® in clinical practice requires a thorough understanding of its limitations as well as its utility. For some patients, FRAX® may underestimate or overestimate fracture risk. In order to address some of the common issues encountered with the use of FRAX® for individual patients, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) and International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) assigned task forces to review the medical evidence and make recommendations for optimal use of FRAX® in clinical practice. Among the issues addressed were the use of bone mineral density (BMD) measurements at skeletal sites other than the femoral neck, the use of technologies other than dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, the use of FRAX® without BMD input, the use of FRAX® to monitor treatment, and the addition of the rate of bone loss as a clinical risk factor for FRAX®. The evidence and recommendations were presented to a panel of experts at the Joint ISCD-IOF FRAX® Position Development Conference, resulting in the development of Joint ISCD-IOF Official Positions addressing FRAX®-related issues.
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Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.
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Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).
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To permit the tracking of turbulent flow structures in an Eulerian frame from single-point measurements, we make use of a generalization of conventional two-dimensional quadrant analysis to three-dimensional octants. We characterize flow structures using the sequences of these octants and show how significance may be attached to particular sequences using statistical mull models. We analyze an example experiment and show how a particular dominant flow structure can be identified from the conditional probability of octant sequences. The frequency of this structure corresponds to the dominant peak in the velocity spectra and exerts a high proportion of the total shear stress. We link this structure explicitly to the propensity for sediment entrainment and show that greater insight into sediment entrainment can be obtained by disaggregating those octants that occur within the identified macroturbulence structure from those that do not. Hence, this work goes beyond critiques of Reynolds stress approaches to bed load entrainment that highlight the importance of outward interactions, to identifying and prioritizing the quadrants/octants that define particular flow structures. Key Points <list list-type=''bulleted'' id=''jgrf20196-list-0001''> <list-item id=''jgrf20196-li-0001''>A new method for analysing single point velocity data is presented <list-item id=''jgrf20196-li-0002''>Flow structures are identified by a sequence of flow states (termed octants) <list-item id=''jgrf20196-li-0003''>The identified structure exerts high stresses and causes bed-load entrainment
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Salmonella is distributed worldwide and is a pathogen of economic and public health importance. As a multi-host pathogen with a long environmental persistence, it is a suitable model for the study of wildlife-livestock interactions. In this work, we aim to explore the spill-over of Salmonella between free-ranging wild boar and livestock in a protected natural area in NE Spain and the presence of antimicrobial resistance. Salmonella prevalence, serotypes and diversity were compared between wild boars, sympatric cattle and wild boars from cattle-free areas. The effect of age, sex, cattle presence and cattle herd size on Salmonella probability of infection in wild boars was explored by means of Generalized Linear Models and a model selection based on the Akaike’s Information Criterion. Prevalence was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle (35.67%, CI 95% 28.19–43.70) than in wild boar from cattle-free areas (17.54%, CI 95% 8.74–29.91). Probability of a wild boar being a Salmonella carrier increased with cattle herd size but decreased with the host age. Serotypes Meleagridis, Anatum and Othmarschen were isolated concurrently from cattle and sympatric wild boars. Apart from serotypes shared with cattle, wild boars appear to have their own serotypes, which are also found in wild boars from cattle-free areas (Enteritidis, Mikawasima, 4:b:- and 35:r:z35). Serotype richness (diversity) was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle, but evenness was not altered by the introduction of serotypes from cattle. The finding of a S. Mbandaka strain resistant to sulfamethoxazole, streptomycin and chloramphenicol and a S. Enteritidis strain resistant to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid in wild boars is cause for public health concern.
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If the old body is usually read as a synonym of fragility and upcoming illness, even though not the case for most elderly citizens, the reality is that the longer we live, the increased probability of being affected by different illnesses cannot be eluded or denied. In Doris Lessing’s The Diary of a Good Neighbour and Margaret Forster’s Have the Men Had Enough? the reader is invited to participate in the day-to-day routines of two aged female protagonists, as well as to empathize with their inner feelings as they go through their last life stage. In fact, their ‘dys-appearing’ bodies, marked by their respective terminal illnesses, force these characters to grow closer to those around them and to accept the help of their families and friends, despite their desire to keep their free will and independence until the very end. The analysis of the two novels within the framework of ageing studies aims to show the contradictions existing between a growing ageing society and the negative cultural connotations of old age in Western society and the need to revise them.
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The aim of the present study was to determine the impact of trabecular bone score on the probability of fracture above that provided by the clinical risk factors utilized in FRAX. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 33,352 women aged 40-99 years from the province of Manitoba, Canada, with baseline measurements of lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS) and FRAX risk variables. The analysis was cohort-specific rather than based on the Canadian version of FRAX. The associations between trabecular bone score, the FRAX risk factors and the risk of fracture or death were examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model and used to calculate 10-year probabilities of fracture with and without TBS and to derive an algorithm to adjust fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk. During a mean follow-up of 4.7 years, 1754 women died and 1639 sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture and 306 women sustained one or more hip fracture. When fully adjusted for FRAX risk variables, TBS remained a statistically significant predictor of major osteoporotic fractures excluding hip fracture (HR/SD 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.24), death (HR/SD 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26) and hip fracture (HR/SD 1.23, 95 % CI 1.09-1.38). Models adjusting major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture probability were derived, accounting for age and trabecular bone score with death considered as a competing event. Lumbar spine texture analysis using TBS is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture and a risk factor for death. The predictive ability of TBS is independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Adjustment of fracture probability to take account of the independent contribution of TBS to fracture and mortality risk requires validation in independent cohorts.
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Työn tarkoituksena oli kerätä käyttövarmuustietoa savukaasulinjasta kahdelta suomalaiselta sellutehtaalta niiden käyttöönotosta aina tähän päivään asti. Käyttövarmuustieto koostuu luotettavuustiedoista sekä kunnossapitotiedoista. Kerätyn tiedon avulla on mahdollista kuvata tarkasti laitoksen käyttövarmuutta seuraavilla tunnusluvuilla: suunnittelemattomien häiriöiden lukumäärä ja korjausajat, laitteiden seisokkiaika, vikojen todennäköisyys ja korjaavan kunnossapidon kustannukset suhteessa savukaasulinjan korjaavan kunnossapidon kokonaiskustannuksiin. Käyttövarmuustiedon keräysmetodi on esitelty. Savukaasulinjan kriittisten laitteiden määrittelyyn käytetty metodi on yhdistelmä kyselytutkimuksesta ja muunnellusta vian vaikutus- ja kriittisyysanalyysistä. Laitteiden valitsemiskriteerit lopulliseen kriittisyysanalyysiin päätettiin käyttövarmuustietojen sekä kyselytutkimuksen perusteella. Kriittisten laitteiden määrittämisen tarkoitus on löytää savukaasulinjasta ne laitteet, joiden odottamaton vikaantuminen aiheuttaa vakavimmat seuraukset savukaasulinjan luotettavuuteen, tuotantoon, turvallisuuteen, päästöihin ja kustannuksiin. Tiedon avulla rajoitetut kunnossapidon resurssit voidaan suunnata oikein. Kriittisten laitteiden määrittämisen tuloksena todetaan, että kolme kriittisintä laitetta savukaasulinjassa ovat molemmille sellutehtaille yhteisesti: savukaasupuhaltimet, laahakuljettimet sekä ketjukuljettimet. Käyttövarmuustieto osoittaa, että laitteiden luotettavuus on tehdaskohtaista, mutta periaatteessa samat päälinjat voidaan nähdä suunnittelemattomien vikojen todennäköisyyttä esittävissä kuvissa. Kustannukset, jotka esitetään laitteen suunnittelemattomien kunnossapitokustannusten suhteena savukaasulinjan kokonaiskustannuksiin, noudattelevat hyvin pitkälle luotettavuuskäyrää, joka on laskettu laitteen seisokkiajan suhteena käyttötunteihin. Käyttövarmuustiedon keräys yhdistettynä kriittisten laitteiden määrittämiseen mahdollistavat ennakoivan kunnossapidon oikean kohdistamisen ja ajoittamisen laitteiston elinaikana siten, että luotettavuus- ja kustannustehokkuusvaatimukset saavutetaan.
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[spa] En este trabajo se analizan los efectos sobre la movilidad geográfica de una política pública (SIPTEA) que aumenta la protección por desempleo en Extremadura y Andalucía. Utilizando la discontinuidad geográfica en la política estudiada y datos de los Censos de Población de 1981 y 1991 a nivel municipal, se estima el efecto de SIPTEA en el crecimiento de la población y en las probabilidades de emigrar e inmigrar en áreas rurales que experimentan elevadas tasas de paro y de emigración. Los resultados del trabajo indican que la política mitigó estas pérdidas de población aunque los efectos son cuantitativamente moderados. También se exploran los efectos de dicha política en el ámbito laboral, encontrándose un incremento de la tasa del desempleo asociado a la implementación de la política de entre 10 y 13 puntos porcentuales.
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[spa] En este trabajo se analizan los efectos sobre la movilidad geográfica de una política pública (SIPTEA) que aumenta la protección por desempleo en Extremadura y Andalucía. Utilizando la discontinuidad geográfica en la política estudiada y datos de los Censos de Población de 1981 y 1991 a nivel municipal, se estima el efecto de SIPTEA en el crecimiento de la población y en las probabilidades de emigrar e inmigrar en áreas rurales que experimentan elevadas tasas de paro y de emigración. Los resultados del trabajo indican que la política mitigó estas pérdidas de población aunque los efectos son cuantitativamente moderados. También se exploran los efectos de dicha política en el ámbito laboral, encontrándose un incremento de la tasa del desempleo asociado a la implementación de la política de entre 10 y 13 puntos porcentuales.
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BACKGROUND: Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that value-based decision-making may rely on mechanisms of evidence accumulation. However no studies have explicitly investigated the time when single decisions are taken based on such an accumulation process. NEW METHOD: Here, we outline a novel electroencephalography (EEG) decoding technique which is based on accumulating the probability of appearance of prototypical voltage topographies and can be used for predicting subjects' decisions. We use this approach for studying the time-course of single decisions, during a task where subjects were asked to compare reward vs. loss points for accepting or rejecting offers. RESULTS: We show that based on this new method, we can accurately decode decisions for the majority of the subjects. The typical time-period for accurate decoding was modulated by task difficulty on a trial-by-trial basis. Typical latencies of when decisions are made were detected at ∼500ms for 'easy' vs. ∼700ms for 'hard' decisions, well before subjects' response (∼340ms). Importantly, this decision time correlated with the drift rates of a diffusion model, evaluated independently at the behavioral level. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD(S): We compare the performance of our algorithm with logistic regression and support vector machine and show that we obtain significant results for a higher number of subjects than with these two approaches. We also carry out analyses at the average event-related potential level, for comparison with previous studies on decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel approach for studying the timing of value-based decision-making, by accumulating patterns of topographic EEG activity at single-trial level.
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Työn tavoitteena oli löytää tarkka menetelmä kampiakselin vaurioitumisriskin laskentaan vertailemalla eri laskentamenetelmiä. Lopuksi suoritettiin simulointi monikappalejärjestelmälle käyttäen elastisia malleja todellisista rakenteista. Simulointiohjelmana käytettiin AVL:n kehittämää Excite:ia.
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Background: Non-adherence to antidepressants generates higher costs for the treatment of depression. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist's interventions aimed at improving adherence to antidepressants. The study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacist intervention in comparison with usual care in depressed patients initiating treatment with antidepressants in primary care. Methods: Patients were recruited by general practitioners and randomized to community pharmacist intervention (87) that received an educational intervention and usual care (92). Adherence to antidepressants, clinical symptoms, Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), use of healthcare services and productivity losses were measured at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Results: There were no significant differences between groups in costs or effects. From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the community pharmacist intervention compared with usual care was 1,866 for extra adherent patient and 9,872 per extra QALY. In terms of remission of depressive symptoms, the usual care dominated the community pharmacist intervention. If willingness to pay (WTP) is 30,000 per extra adherent patient, remission of symptoms or QALYs, the probability of the community pharmacist intervention being cost-effective was 0.71, 0.46 and 0.75, respectively (societal perspective). From a healthcare perspective, the probability of the community pharmacist intervention being cost-effective in terms of adherence, QALYs and remission was of 0.71, 0.76 and 0.46, respectively, if WTP is 30,000. Conclusion: A brief community pharmacist intervention addressed to depressed patients initiating antidepressant treatment showed a probability of being cost-effective of 0.71 and 0.75 in terms of improvement of adherence and QALYs, respectively, when compared to usual care. Regular implementation of the community pharmacist intervention is not recommended.
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New oral targeted anticancer therapies are revolutionizing cancer treatment by transforming previously deadly malignancies into chronically manageable conditions. Nevertheless, drug resistance, persistence of cancer stem cells, and adverse drug effects still limit their ability to stabilize or cure malignant diseases in the long term. Response to targeted anticancer therapy is influenced by tumor genetics and by variability in drug concentrations. However, despite a significant inter-patient pharmacokinetic variability, targeted anticancer drugs are essentially licensed at fixed doses. Their therapeutic use could however be optimized by individualization of their dosage, based on blood concentration measurements via the therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). TDM can increase the probability of therapeutic responses to targeted anticancer therapies, and would help minimize the risk of major adverse reactions.