914 resultados para probabilistic model


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System analysis within the traction power system is vital to the design and operation of an electrified railway. Loads in traction power systems are often characterised by their mobility, wide range of power variations, regeneration and service dependence. In addition, the feeding systems may take different forms in AC electrified railways. Comprehensive system studies are usually carried out by computer simulation. A number of traction power simulators have been available and they allow calculation of electrical interaction among trains and deterministic solutions of the power network. In the paper, a different approach is presented to enable load-flow analysis on various feeding systems and service demands in AC railways by adopting probabilistic techniques. It is intended to provide a different viewpoint to the load condition. Simulation results are given to verify the probabilistic-load-flow models.

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This paper addresses the problem of constructing consolidated business process models out of collections of process models that share common fragments. The paper considers the construction of unions of multiple models (called merged models) as well as intersections (called digests). Merged models are intended for analysts who wish to create a model that subsumes a collection of process models - typically representing variants of the same underlying process - with the aim of replacing the variants with the merged model. Digests, on the other hand, are intended for analysts who wish to identify the most recurring fragments across a collection of process models, so that they can focus their efforts on optimizing these fragments. The paper presents an algorithm for computing merged models and an algorithm for extracting digests from a merged model. The merging and digest extraction algorithms have been implemented and tested against collections of process models taken from multiple application domains. The tests show that the merging algorithm produces compact models and scales up to process models containing hundreds of nodes. Furthermore, a case study conducted in a large insurance company has demonstrated the usefulness of the merging and digest extraction operators in a practical setting.

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Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

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With the recent regulatory reforms in a number of countries, railways resources are no longer managed by a single party but are distributed among different stakeholders. To facilitate the operation of train services, a train service provider (SP) has to negotiate with the infrastructure provider (IP) for a train schedule and the associated track access charge. This paper models the SP and IP as software agents and the negotiation as a prioritized fuzzy constraint satisfaction (PFCS) problem. Computer simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effects on the train schedule when the SP has different optimization criteria. The results show that by assigning different priorities on the fuzzy constraints, agents can represent SPs with different operational objectives.

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Cloninger’s psychobiological model of temperament and character is a general model of personality that has been widely used in clinical psychology, but has seldom been applied in other domains. In this research we apply Cloninger’s model to the study of leadership. Our study comprised 81 participants who took part in a diverse range of small group tasks. Participants rotated through tasks and groups and rated each other on “emergent leadership.” As hypothesized, leader emergence tended to be consistent regardless of the specific tasks and groups. It was found that personality factors from Cloninger, Svrakic, and Przybeck’s (1993) model could explain trait-based variance in emergent leadership. Results also highlight the role of “cooperativeness” in the prediction of leadership emergence. Implications are discussed in terms of our theoretical understanding of trait-based leadership, and more generally in terms of the utility of Cloninger’s model in leadership research.

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Sustainable urban development and the liveability of a city are increasingly important issues in the context of land use planning and infrastructure management. In recent years, the promotion of sustainable urban development in Australia and overseas is facing various physical, socio-economic and environmental challenges. These challenges and problems arise from the lack of capability of local governments to accommodate the needs of the population and economy in a relatively short timeframe. The planning of economic growth and development is often dealt with separately and not included in the conventional land use planning process. There is also a sharp rise in the responsibilities and roles of local government for infrastructure planning and management. This increase in responsibilities means that local elected officials and urban planners have less time to prepare background information and make decisions. The Brisbane Urban Growth Model has proven initially successful in providing a dynamic platform to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. Most importantly, this model is the first step for local governments in moving toward a systematic approach to pursuing sustainable and effective urban infrastructure management.

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This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

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Measuring the comparative sustainability levels of cities, regions, institutions and projects is an essential procedure in creating sustainable urban futures. This paper introduces a new urban sustainability assessment model: “The Sustainable Infrastructure, Land-use, Environment and Transport Model (SILENT)”. The SILENT Model is an advanced geographic information system and indicator-based comparative urban sustainability indexing model. The model aims to assist planners and policy makers in their daily tasks in sustainable urban planning and development by providing an integrated sustainability assessment framework. The paper gives an overview of the conceptual framework and components of the model and discusses the theoretical constructs, methodological procedures, and future development of this promising urban sustainability assessment model.

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In professions such as teaching, health sciences (medicine, nursing, allied health), and built environment (engineering), significant work-based learning through practica is an essential element before graduation. However, there is no such requirement in Accountancy. This thesis reports the findings of a qualitative case study of the development and implementation of a Workplace Learning Experience Program in Accountancy at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in Australia. The case study of this intervention, based on sociocultural learning theory, provides the grounds for the development of a new model of teaching and learning for accounting education. The survey and interview-based study documents the responses of two cohorts of university students and a group of employers to a work placement program. The study demonstrates that a 100 hour work placement in Accountancy has elements that enhance student learning. It demonstrates the potential value of the application of sociocultural theories of learning, especially the concept of situated learning involving legitimate peripheral participation (Lave & Wenger, 1991). This research establishes the theoretical base for a paradigm shift for the Accountancy profession to acknowledge work placements prior to graduation as a major element of learning. It is argued that the current model of accounting education requires reform to better align university and workplace learning.

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This paper proposes a generic decoupled imagebased control scheme for cameras obeying the unified projection model. The scheme is based on the spherical projection model. Invariants to rotational motion are computed from this projection and used to control the translational degrees of freedom. Importantly we form invariants which decrease the sensitivity of the interaction matrix to object depth variation. Finally, the proposed results are validated with experiments using a classical perspective camera as well as a fisheye camera mounted on a 6-DOF robotic platform.

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A composite line source emission (CLSE) model was developed to specifically quantify exposure levels and describe the spatial variability of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments. This model took into account the complexity of vehicle movements in the queue, as well as different emission rates relevant to various driving conditions (cruise, decelerate, idle and accelerate), and it utilised multi-representative segments to capture the accurate emission distribution for real vehicle flow. Hence, this model was able to quickly quantify the time spent in each segment within the considered zone, as well as the composition and position of the requisite segments based on the vehicle fleet information, which not only helped to quantify the enhanced emissions at critical locations, but it also helped to define the emission source distribution of the disrupted steady flow for further dispersion modelling. The model then was applied to estimate particle number emissions at a bi-directional bus station used by diesel and compressed natural gas fuelled buses. It was found that the acceleration distance was of critical importance when estimating particle number emission, since the highest emissions occurred in sections where most of the buses were accelerating and no significant increases were observed at locations where they idled. It was also shown that emissions at the front end of the platform were 43 times greater than at the rear of the platform. Although the CLSE model is intended to be applied in traffic management and transport analysis systems for the evaluation of exposure, as well as the simulation of vehicle emissions in traffic interrupted microenvironments, the bus station model can also be used for the input of initial source definitions in future dispersion models.

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As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to collect numerous business process models. Such models may be linked with each other or mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. Moreover, they may be represented at different abstraction levels depending on the target audience and modeling purpose, and may be available in multiple languages (e.g. due to company mergers). Thus, it is common that organizations struggle with keeping track of their process models. This demonstration introduces AProMoRe (Advanced Process Model Repository) which aims to facilitate the management of (large) process model collections.

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The upper Condamine River in southern Queensland has formed extensive alluvial deposits which have been used for irrigation of cotton crops for over 40 years. Due to excessive use and long term drought conditions these groundwater resources are under substantial threat. This condition is now recognised by all stakeholders, and Qld Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) are currently undertaking a water planning process for the Central Condamine Alluvium with water users and other stakeholders. DERM aims to effectively demonstrate the character of the groundwater system and its current status, and notably the continued long-term drawdown of the watertable. It was agreed that 3D visualisation was an ideal tool to achieve this. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed at QUT was utilised and the visualisation model developed in conjunction with DERM to achieve a planning-management tool for this particular application

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This paper provides an overview of the current QUT Spatial Science undergraduate program based in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. It discusses the development and implementation of a broad-based educational model for the faculty of built environment and engineering courses and specifically to the course structure of the new Bachelor of Urban Development (Spatial Science) study major. A brief historical background of surveying courses is discussed prior to the detailing of the three distinct and complementary learning themes of the new course structure with a graphical course matrix. Curriculum mapping of the spatial science major has been undertaken as the course approaches formal review in late 2010. Work-integrated learning opportunities have been embedded into the curriculum and a brief outline is presented. Some issues relevant to the tertiary surveying/ spatial sector are highlighted in the context of changing higher education environments in Australia.

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In recent years, local government infrastructure management practices have evolved from conventional land use planning to more wide ranging and integrated urban growth and infrastructure management approaches. The roles and responsibilities of local government are no longer simply to manage daily operational functions of a city and provide basic infrastructure. Local governments are now required to undertake economic planning, manage urban growth; be involved in major infrastructure planning; and even engage in achieving sustainable development objectives. The Brisbane Urban Growth model has proven initially successful to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. This model may be the first step for many local governments to move toward an integrated, sustainable and effective infrastructure management.