Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Multimodal Strategies in Development.Predictive Value of early simultaneosgesture-speech comination

The present study investigates the predictive value of the early appearance of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations. An experimental task was used to obtain a communicative productive sample from nineteen children at 1;0 and 1;3. Infant’s communicative productions, in combination with gaze joint engagement patterns, were analyzed in relation to different social conditions. The results show a significant effect of age and social condition on infants’ communicative productions. Gesture-speech combinations seem to work as a strong communicative resource to attract the adult’s attention in social demanding communicative contexts. Gaze joint engagement was used in combination with simultaneous pointing-speech combinations to attract adults’ attention during social demanding conditions. Finally, the use of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations at 1;0 in demanding conditions predicted greater expressive vocabulary acquisition at 1;3 and 1;6. These results indicate that the use of gesture-speech combinations may be considered a significant step towards the early integration of language components.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

Analysis of sensitivity with respect to a compositional parameter : A comment on 'Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling' by L. Loosvelt and co-authors

A comment about the article “Local sensitivity analysis for compositional data with application to soil texture in hydrologic modelling” writen by L. Loosvelt and co-authors. The present comment is centered in three specific points. The first one is related to the fact that the authors avoid the use of ilr-coordinates. The second one refers to some generalization of sensitivity analysis when input parameters are compositional. The third tries to show that the role of the Dirichlet distribution in the sensitivity analysis is irrelevant

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR + PR + SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

Modelling variation of needle density of Scots pine at high latitudes

[Abstract]

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Modelling the effect of temperature on height increment of Scots pine at high latitudes

Abstract

Suspicion d'hémorragie sous-arachnoïdienne: place d'un score prédictif dans la stratégie diagnostique actuelle [Usefulness of a predictive score in subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosis].

Usefulness of a predictive score in subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosis Nearly half of the patients with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) present with no neurological signs, inducing clinical underestimation of the gravity of their affection. As the outcome of aneurismal SAH is highly dependant on the initial neurological status and the recurrence of untreated hemorrhagic events, these neurologically intact patients stand to suffer the most from delayed diagnosis. Although there is currently no validated predictive score that reliably identifies SAH-induced headache, a combination of clinical criteria derived from a cohort of sudden-onset headache patients should allow risk stratification and identification of those patients requiring further investigation.

Modelling of crowded polymers elucidate effects of double-strand breaks in topological domains of bacterial chromosomes.

Using numerical simulations of pairs of long polymeric chains confined in microscopic cylinders, we investigate consequences of double-strand DNA breaks occurring in independent topological domains, such as these constituting bacterial chromosomes. Our simulations show a transition between segregated and mixed state upon linearization of one of the modelled topological domains. Our results explain how chromosomal organization into topological domains can fulfil two opposite conditions: (i) effectively repulse various loops from each other thus promoting chromosome separation and (ii) permit local DNA intermingling when one or more loops are broken and need to be repaired in a process that requires homology search between broken ends and their homologous sequences in closely positioned sister chromatid.

Linear prediction application for modelling the relationships between a large number of stand characteristics of Norway spruce stands

Abstract