Predictive empirical modelling of Orobanche life cycle and seed ecology

Abstract 1.7.4

Noise, predation risk compensation and vigilance in the chaffinch Fringilla coelebs

Background noise should in theory hinder detection of auditory cues associated with approaching danger. We tested whether foraging chaffinches Fringilla coelebs responded to background noise by increasing vigilance, and examined whether this was explained by predation risk compensation or by a novel stimulus hypothesis. The former predicts that only inter-scan interval should be modified in the presence of background noise, not vigilance levels generally. This is because noise hampers auditory cue detection and increases perceived predation risk primarily when in the head-down position, and also because previous tests have shown that only interscan interval is correlated with predator detection ability in this system. Chaffinches only modified interscan interval supporting this hypothesis. At the same time they made significantly fewer pecks when feeding during the background noise treatment and so the increased vigilance led to a reduction in intake rate, suggesting that compensating for the increased predation risk could indirectly lead to a fitness cost. Finally, the novel stimulus hypothesis predicts that chaffinches should habituate to the noise, which did not occur within a trial or over 5 subsequent trials. We conclude that auditory cues may be an important component of the trade-off between vigilance and feeding, and discuss possible implications for anti-predation theory and ecological processes

Evaluation of a predictive model for Mycosphaerella graminicola for economic and environmental benefits

A method was developed to evaluate crop disease predictive models for their economic and environmental benefits. Benefits were quantified as the value of a prediction measured by costs saved and fungicide dose saved. The value of prediction was defined as the net gain made by using predictions, measured as the difference between a scenario where predictions are available and used and a scenario without prediction. Comparable 'with' and 'without' scenarios were created with the use of risk levels. These risk levels were derived from a probability distribution fitted to observed disease severities. These distributions were used to calculate the probability that a certain disease induced economic loss was incurred. The method was exemplified by using it to evaluate a model developed for Mycosphaerella graminicola risk prediction. Based on the value of prediction, the tested model may have economic and environmental benefits to growers if used to guide treatment decisions on resistant cultivars. It is shown that the value of prediction measured by fungicide dose saved and costs saved is constant with the risk level. The model could also be used to evaluate similar crop disease predictive models.

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0A degrees C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

Steady-spectrum contexts and perceptual compensation for reverberation in speech identification

Perceptual compensation for reverberation was measured by embedding test words in contexts that were either spoken phrases or processed versions of this speech. The processing gave steady-spectrum contexts with no changes in the shape of the short-term spectral envelope over time, but with fluctuations in the temporal envelope. Test words were from a continuum between "sir" and "stir." When the amount of reverberation in test words was increased, to a level above the amount in the context, they sounded more like "sir." However, when the amount of reverberation in the context was also increased, to the level present in the test word, there was perceptual compensation in some conditions so that test words sounded more like "stir" again. Experiments here found compensation with speech contexts and with some steady-spectrum contexts, indicating that fluctuations in the context's temporal envelope can be sufficient for compensation. Other results suggest that the effectiveness of speech contexts is partly due to the narrow-band "frequency-channels" of the auditory periphery, where temporal-envelope fluctuations can be more pronounced than they are in the sound's broadband temporal envelope. Further results indicate that for compensation to influence speech, the context needs to be in a broad range of frequency channels. (c) 2007 Acoustical Society of America.

Perceptual compensation for reverberation in speech identification: effects of single-band, multiple-band and wideband noise contexts

Perceptual effects of room reverberation on a "sir" or "stir" test-word can be observed when the level of reverberation in the word is increased, while the reverberation in a surrounding 'context I utterance remains at a minimal level. The result is that listeners make more "sit" identifications. When the context's reverberation is also increased, to approach the level in the test word, extrinsic perceptual compensation is observed, so that the number of listeners' "sir" identifications reduces to a value similar to that found with minimal reverberation. Thus far, compensation effects have only been observed with speech or speech-like contexts in which the short-term spectrum changes as the speaker's articulators move. The results reported here show that some noise contexts with static short-term spectra can also give rise to compensation. From these experiments it would appear that compensation requires a context with a temporal envelope that fluctuates to some extent, so that parts of it resemble offsets. These findings are consistent with a rather general kind of perceptual compensation mechanism; one that is informed by the 'tails' that reverberation adds at offsets. Other results reported here show that narrow-band contexts do not bring about compensation, even when their temporal-envelopes are the same as those of the more effective wideband contexts. These results suggest that compensation is confined to the frequency range occupied by the context, and that in a wideband sound it might operate in a 'band by band' manner.

Perceptual compensation for effects of reverberation in speech identification

Listeners were asked to identify modified recordings of the words "sir" and "stir," which were spoken by an adult male British-English speaker. Steps along a continuum between the words were obtained by a pointwise interpolation of their temporal-envelopes. These test words were embedded in a longer "context" utterance, and played with different amounts of reverberation. Increasing only the test-word's reverberation shifts the listener's category boundary so that more "sir"-identifications are made. This effect reduces when the context's reverberation is also increased, indicating perceptual compensation that is informed by the context. Experiment I finds that compensation is more prominent in rapid speech, that it varies between rooms, that it is more prominent when the test-word's reverberation is high, and that it increases with the context's reverberation. Further experiments show that compensation persists when the room is switched between the context and the test word, when presentation is monaural, and when the context is reversed. However, compensation reduces when the context's reverberation pattern is reversed, as well as when noise-versions of the context are used. "Tails" that reverberation introduces at the ends of sounds and at spectral transitions may inform the compensation mechanism about the amount of reflected sound in the signal. (c) 2005 Acoustical Society of America.

Perceptual compensation for effects of echo and of reverberation on speech identification

In an ideal "reverberant" room, the energy of the impulse responses decays smoothly, at a constant rate of dB/s, so that gradually-decaying tails are added at the ends of sounds. Conversely, a single echo gives a flat energy-decay up to the echo's arrival time, which then drops abruptly, so that sounds with only echoes lack the decaying-tail feature of reverberation. The perceptual effects of these types of reflection pattern were measured with test-words from a continuum of steps between "sir" and "stir", which were each embedded in a carrier phrase. When the proportion of reflected sound in test-words is increased, to a level above the amount in the carrier, the test words sound more like "sir". However, when the proportion of reflected sound in the carrier is also increased, to match the amount in the test word, there can be a perceptual compensation where test words sound more like "stir" again. A reference condition used real-room reverberation from recordings at different source to receiver distances. In a synthetic-reverberation condition, the reflection pattern was from a "colorless" impulse response, comprising exponentially-decaying reflections that were spaced at intervals. In a synthetic-echo condition, the reflection pattern was obtained from the synthetic reverberation by removing the intervals between reflections before delaying the resulting cluster relative to the direct sound. Compensation occurred in the reference condition and in different types of synthetic reverberation, but not in synthetic-echo conditions. This result indicates that the presence of tails from reverberation informs the compensation mechanism.

Application of constrained predictive control on a 3D crane system

This paper describes the SIMULINK implementation of a constrained predictive control algorithm based on quadratic programming and linear state space models, and its application to a laboratory-scale 3D crane system. The algorithm is compatible with Real Time. Windows Target and, in the case of the crane system, it can be executed with a sampling period of 0.01 s and a prediction horizon of up to 300 samples, using a linear state space model with 3 inputs, 5 outputs and 13 states.

Predictive control using feedback linearization based on dynamic neural models

This paper presents a hybrid control strategy integrating dynamic neural networks and feedback linearization into a predictive control scheme. Feedback linearization is an important nonlinear control technique which transforms a nonlinear system into a linear system using nonlinear transformations and a model of the plant. In this work, empirical models based on dynamic neural networks have been employed. Dynamic neural networks are mathematical structures described by differential equations, which can be trained to approximate general nonlinear systems. A case study based on a mixing process is presented.