Alterações microbiológicas e químicas na silagem de cana-de-açúcar (Saccharum officinarum L.) in natura e queimada, inoculadas ou não, com Lactobacillus buchneri

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Proyecciones de población = Population projections

El Observatorio Demográfico 2013 contiene indicadores seleccionados de la revisión de 2013 de las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población analizada. Las cifras contenidas en esta publicación constituyen una revisión de las presentadas en el Observatorio 2012. En esta oportunidad, se actualizaron las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población urbana y rural desde 1950 hasta 2050, extendiéndose el período de estimación y de proyección. La metodología utilizada es la habitual, pero en esta oportunidad se ajustaron las tendencias observadas para lograr una proyección de más largo plazo en los países que no cuentan con censos de la década de 2010. En las próximas ediciones se irán incorporando las nuevas estimaciones y proyecciones de población en que se consideren los censos más recientes y otras fuentes a medida que estén disponibles. Como es habitual, se incluye un capítulo en el que se analizan las tendencias demográficas. En esta oportunidad, se examinan el crecimiento y la perspectiva de la población urbana en la región. En las notas técnicas de este Observatorio se enumeran las fuentes de datos consideradas para cada país. Cabe señalar que la información correspondiente a las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población nacional, urbana, rural y económicamente activa está disponible en formato de hojas de cálculo en el sitio web del CELADE-División de Población de la CEPAL (http://www.eclac.org/celade/).

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Grenada

Changing precipitation patterns and temperature relate directly to water resources and water security. This report presents the findings of an assessment of the water sector in Grenada with respect to the projected impact of climate change. Grenada‘s water resources comprise primarily surface water, with an estimated groundwater potential to satisfy about 10%-15% of the present potable requirement. On the smaller islands Carriacou and Petite Martinique, domestic water is derived exclusively from rainwater catchments. Rainfall seasonality is marked and the available surface water during the dry season declines dramatically. Changing land use patterns, increase in population, expansion in tourism and future implementation of proposed irrigation schemes are projected to increase future water requirements. Economic modeling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios as illustrated. The results suggest that water supply will exceed forecasted water demand under B2 and BAU during all four decades. However under the A2 scenario, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025. It is important to note that the model has been constrained by the omission of several key parameters, and time series for climate indicators, data for which are unavailable. Some of these include time series for discharge data, rainfall-runoff data, groundwater recharge rates, and evapotranspiration. Further, the findings which seem to indicate adequacy of water are also masked by seasonality in a given year, variation from year to year, and spatial variation within the nation state. It is imperative that some emphasis be placed on data generation in order to better project for the management of Grenada‘s water security. This analysis indicates the need for additional water catchment, storage and distribution infrastructure, as well as institutional strengthening, in order to meet the future needs of the Grenadian population. Strategic priorities should be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Grenada has embarked on several initiatives that can be considered strategies toward adaptation to the variabilities associated with climate change. The Government should ensure that these programs be carried out to the optimal levels for reasons described above. The ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that measures will be beneficial with or without climate change should be adopted. A study on the Costs of Inaction for the Caribbean in the face of climate change listed Grenada among the countries which would experience significant impacts on GDP between now and 2100 without adaptation interventions. Investment in the water sector is germane to building Grenada‘s capacity to cope with the multivariate impact of changes in the parameters of climate.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture Sector in Jamaica

The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

Diversity of eating patterns in older adults: A new scenario?

OBJETIVO: Identificar padrões alimentares e a distribuição dos mesmos, em uma amostra representativa de idosos do município de Botucatu, São Paulo.MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal, ocorrido entre março e junho de 2011, com 355 idosos cadastrados na rede básica de saúde do município, selecionados por amostragem estratificada entre as unidades de saúde. Aplicou-se um questionário de frequência alimentar e questionário sociodemográfico. Padrões alimentares foram identificados utilizando-se análise de componentes principais. Escores de consumo individual foram divididos em tercis, caracterizando a adesão baixa, moderada e alta dos indivíduos para cada padrão alimentar. Realizaram-se análises entre os tercis dos padrões alimentares e as variáveis sociodemográficas.RESULTADOS: Identificaram-se seis padrões alimentares: saudável; lanches e refeição de final de semana; frutas; light e integral; dieta branda; e tradicional. A alta adesão aos padrões saudável e frutas é atingida por indivíduos que cursaram até o primário; e a alta adesão ao padrão lanches e refeição de final de semana é mais prevalente no sexo masculino e em indivíduos com nível máximo de escolaridade. A alta adesão aos padrões light e integral e dieta branda é mais prevalente no sexo feminino, sendo este último padrão também característico de idosos em idade mais avançada.CONCLUSÃO: Identificou-se uma diversidade de padrões alimentares nessa população de idosos e o comportamento alimentar variou de acordo com as condições sociodemográficas inseridas no grupo.

The relative growth and sexual maturity of the freshwater crab Dilocarcinus pagei (Brachyura, Trichodactylidae) in the northwestern region of the state of São Paulo

The aim of the present study was to determine the size at sexual maturity in the freshwater crab Dilocarcinus pagei Stimpson, 1861, from a population located in Mendonça, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The crabs were sampled monthly (July 2005 to June 2007), at Barra Mansa reservoir. The specimens were captured manually or in sieves passed through the aquatic vegetation. The crabs were captured and separated by sex based on morphology of the pleon and on the number of pleopods. The following dimensions were measured: carapace width (CW); carapace length (CL); propodus length (PL); and abdomen width (AW). The morphological analysis of the gonads was used to identify and categorize individuals according to their stage of development. The morphological maturity was estimated based on the analysis of relative growth based on the allometric equation y = ax b. The gonadal maturity was based on the morphology of the gonads by the method CW50 which indicates the size at which 50% of the individuals in the population showed gonads morphologically mature to reproduction. The biometric relationships that best demonstrated the different patterns of growth for the juvenile and adult stages were CW vs. PL for males and CW vs. AW for females (p<0.001). Based on these relationships, the estimated value to morphological sexual maturity was 21.5 mm (CW) in males and 19.7 mm (CW) in females. The determination of the size at sexual maturity and the adjustment of the data based on the logistic curve (CW50) resulted in a size of 38.2 mm for males and 39.4 mm for females (CW). Based on the data obtained for sexual maturity for D. pagei, we can estimate a minimum size for capture of 40 mm (CW). This minimum size allows at least half of the population to reproduce and retains the juveniles and a portion of the adults in the population.

Ontogenetic distribution of Callinectes ornatus (Decapoda, Portunoidea) in southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

In vitro fermentation parameters and biohydrogenation of vegetable oils without glycerol

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of Temperature on Intraspecific Competition in Ectotherms

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seroepidemiological analysis of toxoplasmosis in college students

Background Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by an obligate intracellular parasite, Toxoplasma gondii, which affects warm-blooded animals including humans. Its prevalence rates usually vary in different regions of the planet. Methods In this study, an analysis of the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis among Brazilian students was proposed by means of IgG specific antibodies detection. The presence of anti-Toxoplasma gondiiantibodies by indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) was also evaluated in order to compare it with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and to assess the use of 2,2′-azinobis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) and o-phenylenediamine dihydrochloride chromogens. Results The IFAT method showed a seroprevalence of 22.3%. These results were similar to those obtained by ELISA (24.1%). The seroprevalence was directly estimated from the IgG avidity, which showed that in a sample of 112 students, three of them had acute infection, an incidence of 1.6% in the studied population. Conclusion In this study, the use of different chromogenic substrates in immunoenzymatic ELISA assays did not display different sensitivity in the detection of T. gondii-reagent serum. The extrapolation of results to this population must be carefully considered, since the investigation was conducted on a reduced sample. However, it allows us to emphasize the importance of careful and well prepared studies to identify risk factors for toxoplasmosis, to adopt preventive measures and to offer guidance to at-risk populations about the disease.

Prevalence of low back pain and associated factors in adults from a middle-size Brazilian city

Objective: To determine the prevalence of low back pain and some related variables among adults of both genders. Methods: Was conduct a cross-sectional study of population-based in the urban area of Presidente Prudente, São Paulo. The sample consisted of 743 adult residents for over two years in this city. Low back pain, quality of sleep and physical activity were collected through face to face interview at the residence of respondents. Was used the chi-square test to analyze the association between variables, later was created tree multivariate models with hierarchical inclusion of confounding factors. Results: The prevalence of low back pain reported last year was 50.2% (95% CI: 46.6, 53.8), and the last week 32.3% (95% CI: 28.9, 35.6). Was association among low back pain and females (p-value = 0.031), older age, lower education, altered sleep and overweight, the adjusted model found that people over the age of 45 years (45 to 59.9 years, OR = 13.1 [1.72-98.5] and ≥ 60 years, OR = 9.10 [1.15-71.7]), with some alteration of sleep (OR = 3.21 [1.84-5.61]) and obese (OR = 2.33 [1:26 to 4:33]) seems to be a risk group for low back pain. Conclusion: The prevalence of low back pain is high and obese people aged over 45 years, with any sleep disturbance are a group at higher risk for low back pain.

Heritability of Growth traits in fragmented popularions of Copaifera langsdorffii Desf. (Fabaceae)

The aim of this study is to investigate the genetic control of growth traits in the initial phases of development in fragmented populations of Copaifera langsdorffii Desf., using microsatellite markers. For the effect two populations of C. langsdorffii were used: a municipal park located in Sao Jose do Rio Preto (SJRP) and at Assis Ecological Station (AES), both in the state of sao Paulo, Brazil. The model to estimate the heritability coefficient is the method of regression of a measure of phenotypic similarity and an estimate of kinship between paired individuals. The coefficients of relatedness and heritability were estimated for three classes of distance (10, 20 and 30 m) within populations. Estimates of heritability were low (maximum 0.15) for all traits, ranging from positive values for regenerating individuals of the population SJRP and from negative to positive for the juvenile population AES. In evolutionary terms, these results indicate little chance of changing the population mean of the characters studied by natural selection; with strong random environmental effects changing this average. The results also suggest that the heritability for height to decrease between regenerating to juvenile stage and the natural selection in natural populations is stronger in the early stages of plant development.

Microsatellite loci in the oceanic whitetip shark and cross-species amplification using pyrosequencing technology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Linking genetic and environmental factors in amphibian disease risk

A central question in evolutionary biology is how interactions between organisms and the environment shape genetic differentiation. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused variable population declines in the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis); thus, disease has potentially shaped, or been shaped by, host genetic diversity. Environmental factors can also influence both amphibian immunity and Bd virulence, confounding our ability to assess the genetic effects on disease dynamics. Here, we used genetics, pathogen dynamics, and environmental data to characterize L.yavapaiensis populations, estimate migration, and determine relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in predicting Bd dynamics. We found that the two uninfected populations belonged to a single genetic deme, whereas each infected population was genetically unique. We detected an outlier locus that deviated from neutral expectations and was significantly correlated with mortality within populations. Across populations, only environmental variables predicted infection intensity, whereas environment and genetics predicted infection prevalence, and genetic diversity alone predicted mortality. At one locality with geothermally elevated water temperatures, migration estimates revealed source-sink dynamics that have likely prevented local adaptation. We conclude that integrating genetic and environmental variation among populations provides a better understanding of Bd spatial epidemiology, generating more effective conservation management strategies for mitigating amphibian declines.

Body size and allometric shape variation in the molly Poecilia vivipara along a gradient of salinity and predation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)