Assessment of the mortality displacement in temperature-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia

This thesis is a population-based ecological study designed to investigate the issue of mortality displacement (or "harvesting" effect) in the assessment of temperature-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia. It examines the temperature impacts on mortality, and assesses the harvesting effects on the temperature–related deaths. This study contributes to the knowledge base of understanding the temperature-mortality relationship and assists in formulating and evaluating public health intervention strategies within the context of climate change.

Assessment of the effects of maternal exposure to heatwave on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Even though heatwave events have become more frequent and intense in most regions around the world, little is known about the impact of heatwave on birth outcomes. This thesis uses a population-based study design to investigate the relationship between maternal heatwave exposure and adverse birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia. This study found that heatwave exposure at any stage of pregnancy can be harmful to fetal growth, and further increase the risk of adverse birth outcomes. Both short- and long-term effects of heatwave on adverse birth outcomes were found. The findings in this thesis may have significant public health implications.

Bottle-feeding and the risk of pyloric stenosis

OBJECTIVES: Bottle-feeding has been suggested to increase the risk of pyloric stenosis (PS). However, large population-based studies are needed. We examined the effect of bottle-feeding during the first 4 months after birth, by using detailed data about the timing of first exposure to bottle-feeding and extensive confounder information. METHODS: We performed a large population-based cohort study based on the Danish National Birth Cohort, which provided information on infants and feeding practice. Information about surgery for PS was obtained from the Danish National Patient Register. The association between bottle-feeding and the risk of PS was evaluated by hazard ratios (HRs) estimated in a Cox regression model, adjusting for possible confounders. RESULTS: Among 70 148 singleton infants, 65 infants had surgery for PS, of which 29 were bottle-fed before PS diagnosis. The overall HR of PS for bottle-fed infants compared with not bottle-fed infants was 4.62 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.78–7.65). Among bottle-fed infants, risk increases were similar for infants both breast and bottle-fed (HR: 3.36 [95% CI: 1.60–7.03]), formerly breastfed (HR: 5.38 [95% CI: 2.88–10.06]), and never breastfed (HR: 6.32 [95% CI: 2.45–16.26]) (P = .76). The increased risk of PS among bottle-fed infants was observed even after 30 days since first exposure to bottle-feeding and did not vary with age at first exposure to bottle-feeding. CONCLUSIONS: Bottle-fed infants experienced a 4.6-fold higher risk of PS compared with infants who were not bottle-fed. The result adds to the evidence supporting the advantage of exclusive breastfeeding in the first months after birth.

Incidence of paediatric fatal and non-fatal low speed vehicle run over events in Queensland, Australia : eleven year analysis

Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of fatal and non-fatal Low Speed Vehicle Run Over (LSVRO) events among children aged 0–15 years in Queensland, Australia, at a population level. Methods Fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events that occurred in children resident in Queensland over eleven calendar years (1999-2009) were identified using ICD codes, text description, word searches and medical notes clarification, obtained from five health related data bases across the continuum of care (pre-hospital to fatality). Data were manually linked. Population data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate crude incidence rates for fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events. Results There were 1611 LSVROs between 1999–2009 (IR = 16.87/100,000/annum). Incidence of non-fatal events (IR = 16.60/100,000/annum) was 61.5 times higher than fatal events (IR = 0.27/100,000/annum). LSVRO events were more common in boys (IR = 20.97/100,000/annum) than girls (IR = 12.55/100,000/annum), and among younger children aged 0–4 years (IR = 21.45/100000/annum; 39% or all events) than older children (5–9 years: IR = 16.47/100,000/annum; 10–15 years IR = 13.59/100,000/annum). A total of 896 (56.8%) children were admitted to hospital for 24 hours of more following an LSVRO event (IR = 9.38/100,000/annum). Total LSVROs increased from 1999 (IR = 14.79/100,000) to 2009 (IR = 18.56/100,000), but not significantly. Over the 11 year period, there was a slight (non –significant) increase in fatalities (IR = 0.37-0.42/100,000/annum); a significant decrease in admissions (IR = 12.39–5.36/100,000/annum), and significant increase in non-admissions (IR = 2.02-12.77/100,000/annum). Trends over time differed by age, gender and severity. Conclusion This is the most comprehensive, population-based epidemiological study on fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events to date. Results from this study indicate that LSVROs incur a substantial burden. Further research is required on the characteristics and risk factors associated with these events, in order to adequately inform injury prevention. Strategies are urgently required in order to prevent these events, especially among young children aged 0-4 years.

Evaluation of saliva collection devices for the analysis of proteins

Background: Human saliva mirrors the body's health and can be collected non-invasively, does not require specialized skills and is suitable for large population based screening programs. The aims were twofold: to evaluate the suitability of commercially available saliva collection devices for quantifying proteins present in saliva and to provide levels for C-reactive protein (CRP), myoglobin, and immunoglobin E (IgE) in saliva of healthy individuals as a baseline for future studies. Methods: Saliva was collected from healthy volunteers (n = 17, ages 18-33 years). The following collection methods were evaluated: drool; Salimetrics (R) Oral Swab (SOS); Salivette (R) Cotton and Synthetic (Sarstedt) and Greiner Bio-One Saliva Collection System (GBO SCS (R)). We used AlphaLISA (R) assays to measure CRP, IgE and myoglobin levels in human saliva. Results: Significant (p<0.05) differences in the salivary flow rates were observed based on the method of collection, Le. salivary flow rates were significantly lower (p<0.05) in unstimulated saliva (Le. drool and SOS), when compared with mechanically stimulated methods (p<0.05) (Salivette (R) Cotton and Synthetic) and acid stimulated method (p<0.05) (SCS (R)). Saliva collected using SOS yielded significantly (p<0.05) lower concentrations of myoglobin and CRP, whilst, saliva collected using the Salivette (R) Cotton and Synthetic swab yielded significantly (p<0.05) lower myoglobin and IgE concentrations respectively. Conclusions: The results demonstrated significantly relevant differences in analyte levels based on the collection method. Significant differences in the salivary flow rates were also observed depending on the saliva collection method. The data provide preliminary baseline values for salivary CRP, myoglobin, and IgE levels in healthy participants and based on the collection method. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How are falls and fear of falling associated with objectively measured physical activity in a cohort of community-dwelling older men?

BACKGROUND: Falls affect approximately one third of community-dwelling older adults each year and have serious health and social consequences. Fear of falling (FOF) (lack of confidence in maintaining balance during normal activities) affects many older adults, irrespective of whether they have actually experienced falls. Both falls and fear of falls may result in restrictions of physical activity, which in turn have health consequences. To date the relation between (i) falls and (ii) fear of falling with physical activity have not been investigated using objectively measured activity data which permits examination of different intensities of activity and sedentary behaviour. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 1680 men aged 71-92 years recruited from primary care practices who were part of an on-going population-based cohort. Men reported falls history in previous 12 months, FOF, health status and demographic characteristics. Men wore a GT3x accelerometer over the hip for 7 days. RESULTS: Among the 12% of men who had recurrent falls, daily activity levels were lower than among non-fallers; 942 (95% CI 503, 1381) fewer steps/day, 12(95% CI 2, 22) minutes less in light activity, 10(95% CI 5, 15) minutes less in moderate to vigorous PA [MVPA] and 22(95% CI 9, 35) minutes more in sedentary behaviour. 16% (n = 254) of men reported FOF, of whom 52% (n = 133) had fallen in the past year. Physical activity deficits were even greater in the men who reported that they were fearful of falling than in men who had fallen. Men who were fearful of falling took 1766(95% CI 1391, 2142) fewer steps/day than men who were not fearful, and spent 27(95% CI 18, 36) minutes less in light PA, 18(95% CI 13, 22) minutes less in MVPA, and 45(95% CI 34, 56) minutes more in sedentary behaviour. The significant differences in activity levels between (i) fallers and non-fallers and (ii) men who were fearful of falling or not fearful, were mediated by similar variables; lower exercise self-efficacy, fewer excursions from home and more mobility difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: Falls and in particular fear of falling are important barriers to older people gaining health benefits of walking and MVPA. Future studies should assess the longitudinal associations between falls and physical activity.

The radiological diagnosis of pneumonia in children

Despite the importance of paediatric pneumonia as a cause of short and long-term morbidity and mortality worldwide, a reliable gold standard for its diagnosis remains elusive. The utility of clinical, microbiological and radiological diagnostic approaches varies widely within and between populations and is heavily dependent on the expertise and resources available in various settings. Here we review the role of radiology in the diagnosis of paediatric pneumonia. Chest radiographs (CXRs) are the most widely employed test, however, they are not indicated in ambulatory settings, cannot distinguish between viral and bacterial infections and have a limited role in the ongoing management of disease. A standardised definition of alveolar pneumonia on a CXR exists for epidemiological studies targeting bacterial pneumonias but it should not be extrapolated to clinical settings. Radiography, computed tomography and to a lesser extent ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging play an important role in complicated pneumonias but there are limitations that preclude their use as routine diagnostic tools. Large population-based studies are needed in different populations to address many of the knowledge gaps in the radiological diagnosis of pneumonia in children, however, the feasibility of such studies is an important barrier.

Women with self-reported lower-limb lymphedema after treatment for gynecological cancers: Are they more likely to self-report psychosocial symptoms and less likely to use services?

Background: Due to improved screening and treatment for gynaecological cancers survivorship has increased. Use of supportive care services after treatment is important to improve quality of life. Objective: To assess self-reported lower-limb lymphoedema (LLL), depression, anxiety, quality of life, unmet supportive care needs, and service use among gynaecological cancer survivors. Methods: In 2010 a population-based cross-sectional mail survey was conducted (n=160 gynaecological cancer survivors 5 to 30 month post-diagnosis (53% response rate)). Results: Overall, 30% of women self-reported LLL, 21% and 24% depression or anxiety, respectively. Women with LLL were more likely to also report symptoms of depression or anxiety, and with these symptoms had higher unmet supportive care needs. Services needed but not used by 10-15% of women with LLL, anxiety or depression respectively were lymphoedema specialist, pain specialist and physiotherapist, or psychiatrists, psychologists and pain specialists. Limitations: Small sample size, self-report data, limited generalisation to other countries, underrepresentation of older women (age >70) and women from non-Caucasian backgrounds. Conclusions: Women with LLL or high distress were less likely to use services they needed. Funding: This study was funded by Cancer Australia.

The global burden attributable to low bone mineral density

Introduction The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 estimated the worldwide health burden of 291 diseases and injuries and 67 risk factors by calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Osteoporosis was not considered as a disease, and bone mineral density (BMD) was analysed as a risk factor for fractures, which formed part of the health burden due to falls. Objectives To calculate (1) the global distribution of BMD, (2) its population attributable fraction (PAF) for fractures and subsequently for falls, and (3) the number of DALYs due to BMD. Methods A systematic review was performed seeking population-based studies in which BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the femoral neck in people aged 50 years and over. Age- and sex-specific mean ± SD BMD values (g/cm2) were extracted from eligible studies. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to calculate PAFs of BMD for fractures. The theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution was estimated as the age- and sex-specific 90th centile from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Relative risks of fractures were obtained from a previous meta-analysis. Hospital data were used to calculate the fraction of the health burden of falls that was due to fractures. Results Global deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD increased from 103 000 and 3 125 000 in 1990 to 188 000 and 5 216 000 in 2010, respectively. The percentage of low BMD in the total global burden almost doubled from 1990 (0.12%) to 2010 (0.21%). Around one-third of falls-related deaths were attributable to low BMD. Conclusions Low BMD is responsible for a growing global health burden, only partially representative of the real burden of osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis and fragility fractures

The prevalence of osteoporosis is expected to increase with the ageing of the world’s population. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors and health burden of osteoporosis. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2005, osteoporosis is studied as a risk factor for fracture by considering the bone-mineral-density (BMD) measurement as the continuous exposure variable. We have performed a systematic review seeking population-based studies with BMD data measured by dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The femoral neck was selected as the unique location and all values were converted into Hologic® to enable inclusion of worldwide data for analysis. Provisional results on mean BMD values for different world regions are shown in age breakdowns for males and females 50 years or over, as well as mean T-scores using the young, white, female reference of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III. Results show remarkable geographical differences and a time trend towards improvement of the BMD values in Asian and European populations.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Genetic variants underlying risk of endometriosis: Insights from meta-analysis of eight genome-wide association and replication datasets

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a heritable common gynaecological condition influenced by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have proved successful in identifying common genetic variants of moderate effects for various complex diseases. To date, eight GWAS and replication studies from multiple populations have been published on endometriosis. In this review, we investigate the consistency and heterogeneity of the results across all the studies and their implications for an improved understanding of the aetiology of the condition. METHODS Meta-analyses were conducted on four GWASs and four replication studies including a total of 11 506 cases and 32 678 controls, and on the subset of studies that investigated associations for revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) Stage III/IV including 2859 cases. The datasets included 9039 cases and 27 343 controls of European (Australia, Belgium, Italy, UK, USA) and 2467 cases and 5335 controls of Japanese ancestry. Fixed and Han and Elkin random-effects models, and heterogeneity statistics (Cochran's Q test), were used to investigate the evidence of the nine reported genome-wide significant loci across datasets and populations. RESULTS Meta-analysis showed that seven out of nine loci had consistent directions of effect across studies and populations, and six out of nine remained genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)), including rs12700667 on 7p15.2 (P = 1.6 × 10(-9)), rs7521902 near WNT4 (P = 1.8 × 10(-15)), rs10859871 near VEZT (P = 4.7 × 10(-15)), rs1537377 near CDKN2B-AS1 (P = 1.5 × 10(-8)), rs7739264 near ID4 (P = 6.2 × 10(-10)) and rs13394619 in GREB1 (P = 4.5 × 10(-8)). In addition to the six loci, two showed borderline genome-wide significant associations with Stage III/IV endometriosis, including rs1250248 in FN1 (P = 8 × 10(-8)) and rs4141819 on 2p14 (P = 9.2 × 10(-8)). Two independent inter-genic loci, rs4141819 and rs6734792 on chromosome 2, showed significant evidence of heterogeneity across datasets (P < 0.005). Eight of the nine loci had stronger effect sizes among Stage III/IV cases, implying that they are likely to be implicated in the development of moderate to severe, or ovarian, disease. While three out of nine loci were inter-genic, the remaining were in or near genes with known functions of biological relevance to endometriosis, varying from roles in developmental pathways to cellular growth/carcinogenesis. CONCLUSIONS Our meta-analysis shows remarkable consistency in endometriosis GWAS results across studies, with little evidence of population-based heterogeneity. They also show that the phenotypic classifications used in GWAS to date have been limited. Stronger associations with Stage III/IV disease observed for most loci emphasize the importance for future studies to include detailed sub-phenotype information. Functional studies in relevant tissues are needed to understand the effect of the variants on downstream biological pathways.

Redefining dermatologists’ role in skin cancer early detection and follow-up care

Early diagnosis of melanoma leads to the best prognosis for patients and may be more likely achieved when those who are at high risk for melanoma undergo regular and systematic monitoring. However, many people rarely or never see a dermatologist. Risk prediction models (recently reviewed by Usher-Smith et al ) could assist to triage people into preventive care appropriate for their risk profile. Most risk prediction models contain measures of phenotype including skin, eye and hair colour as well as genetic mutations. Almost all also contain the number and size of naevi, as well as the presence of naevi with atypical features which are independently associated with melanoma risk. In the absence of formal population-based screening programs for melanoma in most countries worldwide, people with high risk phenotypes may need to consider regular monitoring or self-monitoring of their naevi , especially since the vast majority of melanomas are found by people themselves or their friend and relatives. Another group of patients that will require regular monitoring are patients who have been successfully treated for their first melanoma, whose risk to develop a second melanoma is greatly increased . In a US study of 89,515 melanoma survivors those with a previous diagnosis of melanoma had a 9-fold increased risk of developing subsequent melanoma compared with the general population, equating to a rate of 3.76 per 1000 person-years, while in an Australian study, risk of subsequent melanoma was 6 per 1000 person-years. Regular follow-up is therefore essential for melanoma survivors, especially during the first few years after initial melanoma diagnosis.

A hybrid of modified PSO and local search on a multi-robot search system

Particle swarm optimization (PSO), a new population based algorithm, has recently been used on multi-robot systems. Although this algorithm is applied to solve many optimization problems as well as multi-robot systems, it has some drawbacks when it is applied on multi-robot search systems to find a target in a search space containing big static obstacles. One of these defects is premature convergence. This means that one of the properties of basic PSO is that when particles are spread in a search space, as time increases they tend to converge in a small area. This shortcoming is also evident on a multi-robot search system, particularly when there are big static obstacles in the search space that prevent the robots from finding the target easily; therefore, as time increases, based on this property they converge to a small area that may not contain the target and become entrapped in that area.Another shortcoming is that basic PSO cannot guarantee the global convergence of the algorithm. In other words, initially particles explore different areas, but in some cases they are not good at exploiting promising areas, which will increase the search time.This study proposes a method based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique on a multi-robot system to find a target in a search space containing big static obstacles. This method is not only able to overcome the premature convergence problem but also establishes an efficient balance between exploration and exploitation and guarantees global convergence, reducing the search time by combining with a local search method, such as A-star.To validate the effectiveness and usefulness of algorithms,a simulation environment has been developed for conducting simulation-based experiments in different scenarios and for reporting experimental results. These experimental results have demonstrated that the proposed method is able to overcome the premature convergence problem and guarantee global convergence.

Genetic influences on brain asymmetry: A DTI study of 374 twins and siblings

Brain asymmetry, or the structural and functional specialization of each brain hemisphere, has fascinated neuroscientists for over a century. Even so, genetic and environmental factors that influence brain asymmetry are largely unknown. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) now allows asymmetry to be studied at a microscopic scale by examining differences in fiber characteristics across hemispheres rather than differences in structure shapes and volumes. Here we analyzed 4. Tesla DTI scans from 374 healthy adults, including 60 monozygotic twin pairs, 45 same-sex dizygotic pairs, and 164 mixed-sex DZ twins and their siblings; mean age: 24.4 years ± 1.9 SD). All DTI scans were nonlinearly aligned to a geometrically-symmetric, population-based image template. We computed voxel-wise maps of significant asymmetries (left/right differences) for common diffusion measures that reflect fiber integrity (fractional and geodesic anisotropy; FA, GA and mean diffusivity, MD). In quantitative genetic models computed from all same-sex twin pairs (N=210 subjects), genetic factors accounted for 33% of the variance in asymmetry for the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus, 37% for the anterior thalamic radiation, and 20% for the forceps major and uncinate fasciculus (all L > R). Shared environmental factors accounted for around 15% of the variance in asymmetry for the cortico-spinal tract (R > L) and about 10% for the forceps minor (L > R). Sex differences in asymmetry (men > women) were significant, and were greatest in regions with prominent FA asymmetries. These maps identify heritable DTI-derived features, and may empower genome-wide searches for genetic polymorphisms that influence brain asymmetry.