From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Elaboración de un video sobre calidad, seguridad y medio ambiente en la Unidad de Laboratorios Docentes (ULD) de la Facultad de Farmacia de la Universidad de Barcelona

La Unidad de Laboratorios Docentes (ULD) de la Facultad de Farmacia (UB) ha implantado un sistema de gestión de la calidad (SGC) que permite transmitir al estudiante una formación adicional con el objetivo de mejorar sus competencias transversales (siguiendo las directrices del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior, EEES). Además, en el curso académico 06-07, se instauraron las Buenas Prácticas Ambientales (BPAL) para disponer de un sistema de gestión que incorporase los criterios de calidad, medioambiente y seguridad (sistema de gestión integrada, SGI). Durante el presente curso académico se ha procedido a la grabación y edición de un video sobre calidad, seguridad y medioambiente en la ULD con el objetivo de mejorar la formación transversal de los estudiantes facilitando la integración de los conocimientos y habilidades profesionales. De esta forma, al salir del entorno universitario, los licenciados y graduados de la Facultad de Farmacia dispondrán de un valor añadido en su formación, mejorando así sus competencias para el desarrollo de su futura profesión. En el video se muestra la manera de trabajar correctamente según las normas de calidad, seguridad y medioambiente recogidas además en un tríptico que se entrega a los estudiantes al acceder por primera vez a un laboratorio de prácticas. El video se difundirá a través de la página web de la ULD, de la videoteca de la UB, del canal You Tube Canal UB, así como de las asignaturas que lo soliciten (sirviendo de soporte para el personal docente).

Safer Constrauction and Maintenance Practices to Minimize Potential Liabiliy by Counties from Accidents, Septemeber 1979

Tort claims resulting from alleged highway defects have introduced an additional element in the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways. A survey of county governments in Iowa was undertaken in order to quantify the magnitude and determine the nature of this problem. This survey included the use of mailed questionnaires and personal interviews with County Engineers. Highway-related claims filed against counties in Iowa amounted to about $52,000,000 during the period 1973 through 1978. Over $30,000,000 in claims was pending at the end of 1978. Settlements of judgments were made at a cost of 12.2% of the amount claimed for those claims that had been disposed of, not including costs for handling claims, attorney fees, or court costs. There was no clear time trend in the amount of claims for the six-year period surveyed, although the anount claimed in 1978 was about double the average for the preceding five years. Problems that resulted in claims for damages from counties have generally related to alleged omissions in the use of traffic control devices or defects, often temporary, resulting from alleged inadequacies in highway maintenance. The absence of stop signs or warning signs often has been the central issue in a highway-related tort claim. Maintenance problems most frequently alleged have included inadequate shoulders, surface roughness, ice o? snow conditions, and loose gravel. The variation in the occurrence of tort claims among 85 counties in Iowa could not be related to any of the explanatory variables that were tested. Claims hppeared to have occurred randomly. However, using data from a subsample of 11 counties, a significant relationship was shown probably to exist between the amount of tort claims and the extensiveness of use of wcirning signs on the respective county road systems. Although there was no indication in any county that their use of warning signs did not conform with provisions of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (Federal Highway Administration, Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978), many more warning signs were used in some counties than would be required to satisfy this minimum requirement. Sign vandalism reportedly is a problem in all counties. The threat of vandalism and the added costs incurred thereby have tended to inhibit more extensive use of traffic control devices. It also should be noted that there is no indication from this research of a correlation between the intensiveness of sign usage and highway safety. All highway maintenance activities introduce some extraordinary hazard for motorists. Generally effective methodologies have evolved for use on county road systems for routine maintenance activities, procedures that tend to reduce the hazard to practical and reasonably acceptable levels. Blading of loose-surfaced roads is an examples such a routine maintenance activity. Alternative patterns for blading that were investigated as part of this research offered no improvements in safety when compared with the method in current use and introduced a significant additional cost that was unacceptable, given the existing limitations in resources available for county roads.

Long-Term Safety of Canakinumab in Patients with Gouty Arthritis.

Background/Purpose: Gouty arthritis (GA) is a chronic inflammatory disease. Targeting the inflammatory pathway through IL-1_ inhibition with canakinumab (CAN) may provide significant long-term benefits. CAN safety versus triamcinolone acetonide (TA) over initial 24 weeks (blinded study) for patients (pts) with history of frequent attacks (_3 in year before baseline) was reported earlier from core (_-RELIEVED [_-REL] and _-REL-II) and first extension (E1) studies1. Herein we present full 18-month long-term CAN safety data, including open-label second extension (E2) studies. Methods: GA pts completing _-REL E1 and _-REL-II E1 studies1 were enrolled in these 1-year, open-label, E2 studies. All pts entering E2, whether randomized to CAN or TA, received CAN 150 mg sc on demand upon new attack. Data are presented only for pts randomized to CAN, and are reported cumulatively, i.e. including corresponding data from previously reported core and E1 studies. Long-term safety outcomes and safety upon re-treatment are presented as incidence rate per 100 patient-years (pyr) of study participation for AEs and SAEs. Deaths are reported for all pts (randomized to CAN or TA). Selected predefined notable laboratory abnormalities are shown (neutrophils, platelets, liver and renal function tests). Long-term attack rate per year is also provided. Results: In total, 69/115 (60%) and 72/112 (64.3%) of the pts randomized to CAN in the two core studies entered the two E2 studies, of which 68 and 64 pts, respectively completed the E2 studies. The 2 study populations had differing baseline comorbidity and geographic origin. Lab data (not time adjusted) for neutropenia appears worse after retreatment in _-REL E2, and deterioration of creatinine clearance appears worse after retreatment (Table 1). The time-adjusted incidence rates for AEs were 302.4/100 pyr and 360/100 pyr, and for SAEs were 27.9/100 pyr and 13.9/100 pyr in _-REL E2 and _-REL-II E2 respectively (Table 1). The time-adjusted incidence rates of any AEs, infection AEs, any SAEs, and selected SAEs before and after re-treatment are presented in Table 1. Incidence rates for AEs and SAEs declined after re-treatment, with the exception of SAEs in _-REL-II E2, which increased from 2.9/100 pyr to 10.9/100 pyr (no infection SAEs after retreatment in _-REL-II E2, and other SAEs fit no special pattern). In the total safety population (N_454, core and all extensions), there were 4 deaths, 2 in the core studies previously reported1 and 2 during the _-REL E2 study (one patient in the CAN group died from pneumonia; one patient in the TA group who never received CAN died of pneumococcal sepsis). None of the deaths was suspected by investigators to be study drug related. The mean rates of new attacks per year on CAN were 1.21 and 1.18 in _-REL E2 and in _-REL-II E2. Conclusion: The clinical safety profile of CAN upon re-treatment was maintained long-term with no new infection concerns

Evaluation of Safety Treatments for Roadside Culverts: TR-517, April 24, 2009

Roadside cross-drainage culverts have been found to impact vehicle accident injury levels. Designers have commonly used three safety treatments to protect errant drivers from culvert accidents. These treatments have included: culvert extension, guardrail installation and grating. In order to define which safety treatment is the most appropriate, benefit-cost analysis has used accident cost reduction to estimate societal gains earned by using any safety treatment. The purpose of this study was to estimate accident costs for a wide range of roadway and roadside characteristics so that designers can calculate benefit/cost ratios for culvert safety treatment options under any particular scenario. This study began with conducting a parametric study in order to find variables which have significant impact on accident cost changes. The study proceeded with highway scenario modeling which included scenarios with different values for combinations of roadway and roadside variables. These variables were chosen based upon findings from the parametric study and their values were assigned based upon highway classification. This study shows that the use of different culvert safety treatments should be flexible to roadway and roadside characteristics. It also shows that culvert extension and grating were the safety treatments found to produce the lowest accident costs for all highway scenarios modeled. Therefore, it is believed that the expanded adoption of culvert extension and culvert grates can improve overall highway safety.

Roadway Lighting and Safety: Phase II – Monitoring Quality, Durability and Efficiency, November 2011

This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

Road Safety Audit for the Intersection of US 59 and IA 9 in Osceola County, Iowa Final Report, March 2012

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) requested a road safety audit (RSA) of the US 59/IA 9 intersection in northwestern Iowa, just south of the Minnesota border, to assess intersection environmental issues and crash history and recommend appropriate mitigation to address the identified safety issues at the intersection. Although the number of crashes at the location has not been significantly higher than the statewide average for similar intersections, the severity of these crashes has been of concern. This RSA was unique in that it included intersection video observation and recorded traffic conflict data analysis, along with the daylight and nighttime field reviews. This report outlines the findings and recommendations of the RSA team for addressing the safety concerns at this intersection.

Report on the Iowa Department of Public Safety for the year ended June 30, 2011

Report on the Iowa Department of Public Safety for the year ended June 30, 2011

Investigation of Earlham Community School District Employee’s Personal Use of a School Vehicle, July 6, 2012

We received a complaint in late September 2011 that an Earlham School District employee had borrowed a school vehicle for her personal use for one month, with the Superintendent’s permission. The school board had discussed the circumstances of the borrowed district vehicle in closed session. The complainant believed this was contrary to Iowa law and also believed no action had been taken against the school employee who borrowed the vehicle or the superintendent who allowed the personal use of the vehicle. He was aware the school district’s attorney reviewed the matter and determined the employee and superintendent violated no law or district policies. Since the school board discussed the matter only in closed session, it was unknown what, if any, discipline was taken against the employees and whether such actions were condoned by the district. We agreed to investigate to determine if the actions of school officials or employees violated Iowa law and if the response from the school board was appropriate.

Immunogenicity and safety of an intradermal boosting strategy for vaccination against influenza in lung transplant recipients.

The immunogenicity of influenza vaccine is suboptimal in lung transplant recipients. Use of a booster dose and vaccine delivery by the intradermal rather than intramuscular route may improve response. We prospectively evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of a 2-dose boosting strategy of influenza vaccine. Sixty lung transplant recipients received a standard intramuscular injection of the 2006-2007 inactivated influenza vaccine, followed 4 weeks later by an intradermal booster of the same vaccine. Immunogenicity was assessed by measurement of geometric mean titer of antibodies after both the intramuscular injection and the intradermal booster. Vaccine response was defined as 4-fold or higher increase of antibody titers to at least one vaccine antigen. Thirty-eight out of 60 patients (63%) had a response after intramuscular vaccination. Geometric mean titers increased for all three vaccine antigens following the first dose (p < 0.001). However, no significant increases in titer were observed after the booster dose for all three antigens. Among nonresponders, 3/22 (13.6%) additional patients responded after the intradermal booster (p = 0.14). The use of basiliximab was associated with a positive response (p = 0.024). After a single standard dose of influenza vaccine, a booster dose given by intradermal injection did not significantly improve vaccine immunogenicity in lung transplant recipients.

School Bus Safety Study: Kadyn’s Law, December 2012

In 2012, the Iowa legislature passed a bill for an act relating to school bus safety, including providing penalties for failure to obey school bus warning lamps and stop signal arms, providing for a school bus safety study and administrative remedies, and making an appropriation. The bill, referred to as Iowa Senate File (SF) 2218 or “Kadyn’s Law,” became effective March 16, 2012. A multiagency committee addressed three specific safety study elements of Kadyn’s Law as follows: * Use of cameras mounted on school buses to enhance the safety of children riding the buses and aid in enforcement of motor vehicle laws pertaining to stop-arm violations * Feasibility of requiring school children to be picked up and dropped off on the side of the road on which their home is located * Inclusion of school bus safety as a priority in driver training curriculum This report summarizes the findings for each of these topics.