The Time-Series Properties on Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the housing prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the housing prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests revealing intertwined temporal relationships. The Santa Anna MSA leads the pack in temporally causing housing prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experienced the largest number of temporal effects from other MSAs, six of the seven, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proved the most isolated in that it temporally caused housing prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angels and Oxnard) and housing prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally caused prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Systematic review of genetic risk score in coronary heart disease and other diseases

In order to better take advantage of the abundant results from large-scale genomic association studies, investigators are turning to a genetic risk score (GRS) method in order to combine the information from common modest-effect risk alleles into an efficient risk assessment statistic. The statistical properties of these GRSs are poorly understood. As a first step toward a better understanding of GRSs, a systematic analysis of recent investigations using a GRS was undertaken. GRS studies were searched in the areas of coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer, and other common diseases using bibliographic databases and by hand-searching reference lists and journals. Twenty-one independent case-control studies, cohort studies, and simulation studies (12 in CHD, 9 in other diseases) were identified. The underlying statistical assumptions of the GRS using the experience of the Framingham risk score were investigated. Improvements in the construction of a GRS guided by the concept of composite indicators are discussed. The GRS will be a promising risk assessment tool to improve prediction and diagnosis of common diseases.^

Heregulin -beta 1 directly associates with RhoA via the immunoglobulin -like domain thereby modulating breast cancer metastasis-related properties

Heregulins constitute a family of growth factors belonging to the epidermal growth factor (EGF) family. Breast cancers that overexpress specific members of the EGF receptor family (EGFR, ErbB2, ErbB3, ErbB4) have increased metastatic potential, and Heregulin-β1 (HRGβ1), a ligand for ErbB3 and ErbB4, has also been shown to induce metastasis-related properties in breast cancer cells in vitro. The secreted form of the HRGβ1 is composed of five distinct structural domains, including the N-terminal domain, an immunoglobulin-like domain (IgG-like), a glycosylation domain, an EGF-like domain, and a β1-specific domain. Of these, the EGF-like domain is well characterized for its function in metastasis-related properties as well as its structure. However, the contributions of the other HRGβ1 domains in breast cancer metastasis remains unclear. ^ To investigate this, HRGβ1 proteins with targeted domain deletions were purified and subjected to assays for metastasis-related properties, including aggregation, invasion, activation of EGFR family members, and motility of breast cancer cells. These assays showed that retaining the EGF-like domain of HRGβ1 is important for activation of EGFRs. Interestingly, the HRGβ1 protein lacking the IgG-like domain (NGEB) led to a decrease in breast cancer cell motility, indicating the IgG-like domain modulates cell motility, an important step in cancer metastasis. ^ To understand the underlying mechanisms, I performed protein sequence and structural analysis of HRGβ1 and identified that the IgG-like domain of HRGβ1 shares sequence homology and three-dimensional structural similarity with the IgG-like domain of TRIO. TRIO is a cytoplasmic protein that directly associates with RhoA, a GTPase involved in cell reorganization and cell motility. Therefore, I hypothesized that HRGβ1 may translocate inside the breast cancer cells through receptor mediated endocytosis and bind to RhoA via its IgG-like domain. I show wild type HRGβ1 but not NGEB binds RhoA in vitro and in vivo, leading to RhoA activation. Inhibition of HRG-β1 internalization via endocytosis disrupted HRGβ1 binding to RhoA. Additionally, breast cancer cell motility induced by HRG-β1 is reduced after treatment with inhibitors to both endocytosis and RhoA function, similar to levels seen with NGEB treatment. ^ Thus, in addition to the well-known role of HRGβ1 as an extracellular stimulator of the EGFR family members, HRGβ1 also functions within the cell as a binding partner and activator of RhoA to modulate cancer cell motility. ^

Sedimentological, physical, bulk geochemical, elemental and rock magnetic properties of the Middle to Late Pleistocene Rodderberg (Eifel/Germany)

The sediment record from Rodderberg potentially provides a climate and environmental record spanning at least the last ca 130 ka. Results from a low resolution pilot study reveal characteristic fluctuations that can be related to global climate variability as reflected in marine isotope stages and document the potential of this site for continuous and high-resolution investigations of the Middle to Late Pleistocene. Here we document the tentative lithology drilled, and show how the elemental composition can be interpreted with regard to lake level fluctuations, related redox conditions, but also to grain-size distribution and changes in lacustrine productivity. Finally, based on major lithological changes, a preliminary depth/age model is suggested that allows reassessing published luminescence ages from the same site.

Physical properties and neutron texture measuerments of deep-sea carbonates of DSDP Holes 62-463 and 62-465A

In weakly indurated, nannofossil-rich, deep-sea carbonates compressional wave velocity is up to twice as fast parallel to bedding than normal to it. It has been suggested that this anisotropy is due to alignment of calcite c-axes perpendicular to the shields of coccoliths and shield deposition parallel to bedding. This hypothesis was tested by measuring the preferred orientation (fabric) of calcite c-axes in acoustic anisotropic, calcareous DSDP sediment samples by X-ray goniometry, and it was found that the maximum c-axis concentrations are by far too low to explain the anisotropies. The X-ray method is subject to a number of uncertainties due to preparatory and technical shortcomings in weakly indurated rocks. The most serious weaknesses are: sample preparation, volume of measured sample (fraction of a mm3), beam defocusing and background intensity corrections, combination of incomplete pole figures, and necessity of recalculation of the c-axis orientations from other crystallographic directions. Goniometry using thermal neutrons overcomes most of these difficulties, but it is time consuming. We test the interferences made about velocity anisotropy by X-ray studies about the concentration of c-axes in deep-sea carbonates by employing neutron texture goniometry to eight DSDP samples comprising mostly nannofossil material. Fabric and sonic velocity were determined directly on the core specimens, thus from the same rock volume and requiring no preparation. The c-axis orientation is obtained directly from the [0006] calcite diffraction peak without corrections. The fabrics are clearly defined, but weak (1.1 to 1.86 times uniform) with the maximum about normal to bedding. They have crudely orthorhombic symmetry, but are not axisymmetric around the bedding normal. The observed c-axis intensities, although higher than determined by the X-ray method on other samples, are by far too low to explain the observed acoustic anisotropies.

Geochemical data and mineralogical properties of bulk sediment composition of ODP Hole 195-1202B

During Leg 195 of the Ocean Drilling Program, Site 1202 was drilled in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean beneath the Kuroshio (Black Current) between northern Taiwan and the Ryukyu Island Arc on the northern flank of the I-Lan Ridge at 1274 m water depth. The upper 110 m of the Site 1202 section, composed of dark grey calcareous silty clay, provide an expanded record of environmental changes during the last 28 kyr. The sediments were deposited at high sedimentation rates between 3.0 and 5.0 m/kyr and peak values of 9.0 m/kyr between 15.1 and 11.2 ka BP. Variations in the modes and sources of detrital sediment input, as inferred from sediment granulometry, mineralogy, and elemental XRF-scanner data, reflect changes in environmental boundary conditions related to sea-level changes, Kuroshio variability, and the climate-driven modes of fluvial runoff. The provenance data point to increased sediment supply from northwestern Taiwan between 28 and 19.5 ka BP and from East China sources between 19.5 and 11.2 ka BP. The change in provenance at 19.5 ka BP reflects increased fluvial runoff from the Yangtze River and strong sediment reworking from the East China Sea shelf in the course of increased humidity and postglacial sea-level rise, particularly after 15.1 ka BP. The Holocene was dominated by sediments that originated from rivers in northeastern Taiwan. For the pre-Holocene period prior to 11.2 ka BP, low portions of sortable silt (63-10 ?m) show that the Kuroshio did not enter the Okinawa Trough, because of low sea-level. In turn, high proportions of sortable silt and sediment provenance from northeastern Taiwan point to strong ocean circulation under the direct and persistent influence of the Kuroshio during the Holocene. The reentrance of the Kuroshio to the Okinawa Trough was heralded by two pulses in relative current strengthening at 11.2 and 9.5 ka BP, as documented by stepwise increases in sortable silt in the lower Holocene section. From a global perspective, environmental changes in the southern Okinawa Trough show affinities to climate change in the western Pacific warm pool with little influence of climate teleconnections from the North Atlantic realm, otherwise seen in many other marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records from southeastern Asia.

(Table T1) Magnetic properties of MORB from ODP Leg 187 sites

The core samples of mid-ocean-ridge basalts (including Indian and Pacific type) recovered from the Southeast Indian Ridge (SEIR) area near the Australian Antarctic Discordance during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 187 were studied using rock magnetism, mineralogy, and petrography methods. On the basis of thermomagnetic analyses and low-temperature magnetometry, the dominant magnetic carrier in most of the basalt samples (pillow basalts) is characterized as titanomaghemite, which presumably formed by low-temperature oxidation of primary titanomagnetite. Some samples from unaltered massive basalts contain nearly unoxidized titanomagnetite as the main magnetic mineral. A metadiabase sample showing greenschist facies metamorphism contains magnetic minerals dominated by magnetite. The pillow basalts contain titanomaghemite ranging from stable single-domain to pseudosingle-domain (PSD) grains, and the majority are characterized by a single stable component of remanence. The massive basalts show hysteresis features of larger PSD grains and contain a very low coercivity remanence. The values of natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of the samples in this SEIR area are on the same order as those of other oceanic ridge basalts. They show a general decreasing trend of NRM with increasing crust age. However, the values of NRM show no correlation either with the tectonic zonations (Zone A vs. Zone B) or with the mantle provinces (Pacific vs. Indian types).

Physical properties of 39 sediment cores from the Bengal Fan and northeast Indian Ocean

We obtained sediment physical properties and geochemical data from 47 piston and gravity cores located in the Bay of Bengal, to study the complex history of the Late Pleistocene run-off from the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers and its imprint on the Bengal Fan. Grain-size parameters were predicted from core logs of density and velocity to infer sediment transport energy and to distinguish different environments along the 3000-km-long transport path from the delta platform to the lower fan. On the shelf, 27 cores indicate rapidly prograding delta foresets today that contain primarily mud, whereas outer shelf sediment has 25% higher silt contents, indicative of stronger and more stable transport regime, which prevent deposition and expose a Late Pleistocene relic surface. Deposition is currently directed towards the shelf canyon 'Swatch of No Ground', where turbidites are released to the only channel-levee system that is active on the fan during the Holocene. Active growth of the channel-levee system occurred throughout sea-level rise and highstand with a distinct growth phase at the end of the Younger Dryas. Coarse-grained material bypasses the upper fan and upper parts of the middle fan, where particle flow is enhanced as a result of flow-restriction in well-defined channels. Sandier material is deposited mainly as sheet-flow deposits on turbidite-dominated plains at the lower fan. The currently most active part of the fan with 10-40 cm thick turbidites is documented for the central channel including inner levees (e.g., site 40). Site 47 from the lower fan far to the east of the active channel-levee system indicates the end of turbidite sedimentation at 300 ka for that location. That time corresponds to the sea-level lowering during late isotopic stage 9 when sediment supply to the fan increased and led to channel avulsion farther upstream, probably indicating a close relation of climate variability and fan activity. Pelagic deep-sea sites 22 and 28 contain a 630-kyear record of climate response to orbital forcing with dominant 21- and 41-kyear cycles for carbonate and magnetic susceptibility, respectively, pointing to teleconnections of low-latitude monsoonal forcing on the precession band to high-latitude obliquity forcing. Upper slope sites 115, 124, and 126 contain a record of the response to high-frequency climate change in the Dansgaard-Oeschger bands during the last glacial cycle with shared frequencies between 0.75 and 2.5 kyear. Correlation of highs in Bengal Fan physical properties to lows in the d18O record of the GISP2 ice-core suggests that times of greater sediment transport energy in the Bay of Bengal are associated with cooler air temperatures over Greenland. Teleconnections were probably established through moisture and other greenhouse-gas forcing that could have been initiated by instabilities in the methane hydrate reservoir in the oceans.

Anelastic strain recovery and elastic properties of ODP Leg 123 oceanic basalt samples

A knowledge of rock stress is fundamental for improving our understanding of oceanic crustal mechanisms and lithospheric dynamic processes. However, direct measurements of stress in the deep oceans, and in particular stress magnitudes, have proved to be technically difficult. Anelastic strain recovery measurements were conducted on 15 basalt core samples from Sites 765 and 766 during Leg 123. Three sets of experiments were performed: anelastic strain recovery monitoring, dynamic elastic property measurements, and thermal azimuthal anisotropy observations. In addition, a range of other tests and observations were recorded to characterize each of the samples. One common feature of the experimental results and observations is that apparently no consistent orientation trend exists, either between the different measurements on each core sample or between the same sets of measurements on the various core samples. However, some evidence of correspondence between velocity anisotropy and anelastic strain recovery exists, but this is not consistent for all the core samples investigated. Thermal azimuthal anisotropy observations, although showing no conclusive correlations with the other results, were of significant interest in that they clearly exhibited anisotropic behavior. The apparent reproducibility of this behavior may point toward the possibility of rocks that retain a "memory" of their stress history, which could be exploited to derive stress orientations from archived core. Anelastic strain recovery is a relatively new technique. Because use of the method has extended to a wider range of rock types, the literature has begun to include examples of rocks that contracted with time. Strong circumstantial evidence exists to suggest that core-sample contractions result from the slow diffusion of pore fluids from a preexisting microcrack structure that permits the rock to deflate at a greater rate than the expansion caused by anelastic strain recovery. Both expansions and contractions of the Leg 123 cores were observed. The basalt cores have clearly been intersected by an abundance of preexisting fractures, some of which pass right through the samples, but many are intercepted or terminate within the rock matrix. Thus, the behavior of the core samples will be influenced not only by the properties of the rock matrix between the fractures, but also by how these macro- and micro-scale fractures mutually interact. The strain-recovery curves recorded during Leg 123 for each of the 15 basalt core samples may reflect the result of two competing time dependent processes: anelastic strain recovery and pore pressure recovery. Were these the only two processes to influence the gauge responses, then one might expect that given the additional information required, established theoretical models might be used to determine consistent stress orientations and reliable stress magnitudes. However, superimposed upon these competing processes is their respective interaction with the preexisting fractures that intersect each core. Evidence from our experiments and observations suggests that these fractures have a dominating influence on the characteristics of the recovery curves and that their effects are complex.

Geotechnical properties at DSDP Leg 66 Holes

Delineating the interrelationships between tectonics, sedimentation, and geotechnical properties is particularly important for areas subjected to the dynamic affects of convergence. DSDP Leg 66 drilling within the Middle America Trench complex provided a unique opportunity to investigate these interrelationships along a transect of eight drill sites beginning on the trench outer slope and traversing the trench, trench inner slope, and upper continental slope. Investigations of other convergent margins suggest that deformation occurs most rapidly along the lower trench inner slope and is reflected by the geotechnical properties (Carson, 1977; Seely, 1977; and von Huene, 1979). This study focuses on the geotechnical properties of Middle America Trench sediments and the possible affects of convergence on these properties.

Geotechnical properties of sediments at DSDP Leg 84 Holes

The geotechnical characteristics of 22 sediment samples from Leg 84 sites were studied in an effort to associate these with processes active along the Middle America slope and with sedimentation mechanisms. Geotechnical properties measured include water content, porosity, bulk density, Atterberg limits, consolidation characteristics, permeability, and vane shear strength. A majority of samples obtained from Sites 565, 568, and 570 show significant disturbance resulting from degassing. This disturbance apparently results in underconsolidation, although other mechanisms such as excess pore pressures generated from the subduction process can also contribute to this state. Overconsolidated sediments were found at Sites 565, 566, and 569. The overconsolidated sediments at Sites 565 and 569 may result from downslope transport mechanisms rearranging and stressing the sediment mass under consideration. The sediment condition at Site 566 is probably a result of eroded overburden: an estimated 87 m of overlying sediments may have been removed. Geotechnical and permeability relationships with depth are consistent with those found for other hemipelagic sediments of silty clay to clayey silt textures.

Magnetic properties, grain sizes and minerals at DSDP Site 83-504B

Twenty-seven samples from the Leg 83 section of Hole 504B have been investigated using magnetic, optical, and electron optical methods. The primary magnetic mineral to crystallize was titanomagnetite of approximate composition Fe2.4Ti0.6O4 (TM60), but none survives, nor is there evidence of titanomaghemite produced by oxidation of TM60. The average measured magnetic properties can be interpreted in terms of magnetite, Fe3O4, having average grain size of <1 µm and present in average volume concentration of - 0.5%. The intensity of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of the rocks could also be accounted for as being a thermoremanence carried by this mineral. Although the heterogeneity of the titanomagnetite grains could be detected optically, the texture of the intergrown phases is poorly developed. In some samples from the massive units of the lower part of the section, trellis patterns were visible. The Fe3O4 present in the intergrowths is too intimately mixed with the other intergrown phases to be revealed by electron microprobe analysis that simply returns the bulk composition of the intergrowth (oxidized TM60). The path by which the mineral assemblage evolved from TM60 to an Fe304-containing intergrowth, under the temperature and pressure conditions obtaining in the Leg 83 section, makes interesting speculation. Deuteric oxidation, maghemitization/inversion, or some hypothetical low-temperature/high-pressure oxidation by a leaching-of-iron process may all play roles.

The physical properties of basalt at DSDP Hole 45-395A

A detailed study has been made of the physical properties of core samples from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 395A. The properties include: density, porosity, compressional and shear wave velocity, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and electrical resistivity. Of particular importance are the relations among the parameters. Most of the variations in the basalt properties follow the porosity, with smaller inferred dependence on pore structure, original mineralogy differences, and alteration. The sample measurements give very similar results to (and extend previous data from) Mid-Atlantic Ridge drillholes, the sample data from this site and previous data are used to estimate relations between porosity and other large-scale physical properties of the upper oceanic crust applicable to this area. These relations are important for the analysis and interpretation of downhole logging measurements and marine geophysical data.

Paleomagnetic properties of igneous rocks from several DSDP and ODP sites, western Pacific

Oceanic basalts and other related igneous rocks are considered excellent recorders of the Earth's paleomagnetic field. Consequently, basalt core paleomagnetic data are valuable for the constraints they provide on plate tectonic motions, especially for oceanic plates such as the Pacific. Unfortunately, few Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) boreholes have been cored very deeply into the ocean crust. The result is that there are only a few sites at which a large enough number of basalt flows have been cored to properly average secular variation (e.g., Kono, 1980, doi:10.2973/dsdp.proc.55.135.1980; Cox and Gordon, 1984, doi:10.1029/RG022i001p00047). Furthermore, there are a number of sites where basaltic core samples were retrieved but the cores were not measured. Often this occurs because leg scientists had more important sections to work on, or the section was ignored because it was too short to record enough time to average secular variation and obtain a reliable paleolatitude. Even though it may not be possible to determine a precise paleolatitude from such short sections, measurements from a small number of flows are important because they can be combined with other coeval paleomagnetic data from the same plate to calculate a paleomagnetic pole (Gordon and Cox, 1980, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1980.tb02642.x; Cox and Gordon, 1984, doi:10.1029/RG022i001p00047). For this reason, I obtained samples for paleomagnetic measurements from eight Pacific sites (169, 170, 171, 581, 597, 800, 803, and 865), most of which have not been previously measured for paleomagnetism.

Magnetic properties of ODP Site 175-1075

We present sediment magnetic and chemical analysis of cyclic ocean sediments of the upwelling region of the Lower Congo Basin (equatorial Atlantic). We investigated two >100-k.y. intervals from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1075 to analyze the hysteresis properties, sources of magnetic susceptibility, anhysteretic remanent magnetizations, thermomagnetic behavior, and element concentrations of Fe, Ca, Ti, Mn, and K using an X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanner. The upper interval was sampled between 14 and 32 meters composite depth (mcd; 0.09-0.21 Ma) and the lower between 141 and 163 mcd (1.31-1.54 Ma) at a resolution of 20 cm, which represents a temporal resolution of 2.0 and 1.3 k.y., respectively. XRF core-scanner data were acquired at 5-cm intervals. The measurements show that ferri(o)magnetic minerals have no significant influence on the cyclicity of the magnetic susceptibility, which is dominated by paramagnetic and diamagnetic minerals and reflects changes of sediment input from the Congo River. The Fe, Ti, K, and Mn concentrations covary with the magnetic susceptibility where high concentrations of these elements correlate with intervals of high susceptibility and low concentrations with intervals of low susceptibility. The Ca counts correlate well with the calcium carbonate concentration but do not show the same cyclicity as the other elements or the susceptibility. With the exception of the Ca concentration, which is significantly higher in the upper interval, and the magnetic grain size, which indicates that less fine grained magnetite is present in the lower interval, no significant differences in the properties of the upper and the lower intervals were detected.