Da escassez ao estresse do planeta: um século de mudanças no ciclo do nitrogênio

Heavy metals and pesticides are usually associated with the main problems humankind has created in the natural environment. However, compounds with characteristics of essential macronutrients are causing serious environmental changes that could intensify, compromising the diversity of life on the planet. This is the case of nitrogen compounds, produced by industrial processes for use in intensive agriculture in addition to those unwittingly produced from human activities, available in excess in the environment. These compounds warrant greater attention from researchers in various fields of knowledge and public agencies for environmental control, toward minimizing their availability in the environment, thereby returning conditions closer to the natural environmental balance of the planet.

Lannoitetehtaan prosessivesien käsittelyvaihtoehtojen soveltuvuuden arviointi

Phosphorus and nitrogen cause eutrophication of water bodies, causing severe damage to the ecosystem. Eutrophication of the waters causes oxygen depletion, which in turn increases fish mortality, releasing toxins in waters. The released toxins can cause damage to animals and humans, which is the reason in many countries to set emission limits for waste water. Nutrients exist naturally, but due to human activities there is high nutrient leaching to water bodies. Human activity is one of the main reasons to the eutrophication. The aim of this thesis was to estimate the suitability of different water treatment options for Yara Finland’s fertilizer plant’s process waters in Siilinjärvi. The fertilizer plant process waters are high concentrate and especially nitrogen concentrations are high, which bring challenge to the treatment. At the theoretical part was investigated conventional and as well advanced wastewater treatment methods like reverse osmosis, adsorption and ion exchange. Beside different treatment methods corporate environmental requirements, responsibility and strategies were researched. At the empirical part of the thesis the goal was to find out possibil-ities to intensify the efficiency of purification at lamella clarifier with chemical precipitation. In addition possibility to use already existing chemical purifying plant for process waters was estimated. As a result of the research Yara has a possibility to intensify lamella clarifier’s action by addi-tion of calcium hydroxide and thus to obtain the phosphorus and fluorine to precipitate out of the water. But in practice this would be too expensive. It is possible to eliminate nitrogen compounds by adsorption or ammonia stripping, both methods requires additional testing. It is possible to process waters in chemical purifying plant, if ammonium nitrogen has been reduced before. Reverse osmosis is possible to exploit for the phosphoric acid plant’s waters.

Anaerobic-aerobic treatment of swine wastewater in uasb and batch reactors in series

In this work it was evaluated the performance of two systems of swine wastewater treatment consisting of two-stage upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors, with and without post-treatment in sequencing batch reactor (SBR), fed continuously, with aerobic phase. The UASB reactors in the first stage had 908 L in the sets I and II, and in the second stage 350 and 188 L, respectively. In the set II the post-treatment was performed in a SBR of 3,000 L. The hydraulic detention times in the anaerobic treatment systems were 100, 75 and 58 h in the set I; 87, 65 and 51 h in the set II; and 240 and 180 h in the SBR. The volumetric organic load applied in the first stage UASB reactors ranged from 6.9 to 12.6 g total COD (L d)-1 in the set I and 7.5 to 9.8 g total COD (L d)-1 in the set II. The average removal efficiencies of total COD, total phosphorus (Ptotal), and Kjeldahl and organic nitrogen (KN and Norg) in the anaerobic treatment systems were similar and reached maximum values of 97%, 64%, 68%, and 98%. In the SBR, the removal efficiencies of total COD and thermotolerant coliforms were up to 62 and 92% resulting, respectively, in effluent concentrations of 135 mg L-1 and 2x10(4)MPN (100 mL)-1. For Ptotal, total nitrogen (TN) and Norg, the average removal efficiencies in the SBR were up to 58, 25 and 73%, respectively.

Electrochemical Treatment of Wastewaters

Electrocoagulation is a process in which wastewater is treated under electrical current. Coagulant is formed during the process through the metal anode dissolution to respective ions which react with hydroxyl ions released in cathode. These metal hydroxides form complexes with pollutant ions. Pollutants are removed among metal hydroxide precipitates. This study was concentrated on describing chemistry and device structures in which electrochemical treatment operations are based on. Studied pollutants were nitrogen compounds, sulphate, trivalent and pentavalent arsenic, heavy metals, phosphate, fluoride, chloride, and bromide. In experimental part, removal of ammonium, nitrate, and sulphate during electrochemical treatment was studied separately. Main objective of this study was to find suitable metal plate material for ammonium, nitrate, and sulphate removal, respectively. Also other parameters such as pH of solution, concentration of pollutant and sodium chloride, and current density were optimized. According to this study the most suitable material for ammonium and sulphate removal by electrochemical treatment was stainless steel. Respectively, iron was the optimum material for nitrate removal. Rise in the pH of solution at the final stage of electrochemical treatment of ammonium, nitrate, and sulphate was detected. Conductivities of solutions decreased during ammonium removal in electrochemical processes. When nitrate and sulphate were removed electrochemically conductivities of solutions increased. Concentrations of residual metals in electrochemically treated solutions were not significant. Based on this study electrochemical treatment processes are recommended to be used in treatment of industrial wastewaters. Treatment conditions should be optimized for each wastewater matrix.

Metabolite and light regulation of metabolism in plants: lessons from the study of a single biochemical pathway

We are using molecular, biochemical, and genetic approaches to study the structural and regulatory genes controlling the assimilation of inorganic nitrogen into the amino acids glutamine, glutamate, aspartate and asparagine. These amino acids serve as the principal nitrogen-transport amino acids in most crop and higher plants including Arabidopsis thaliana. We have begun to investigate the regulatory mechanisms controlling nitrogen assimilation into these amino acids in plants using molecular and genetic approaches in Arabidopsis. The synthesis of the amide amino acids glutamine and asparagine is subject to tight regulation in response to environmental factors such as light and to metabolic factors such as sucrose and amino acids. For instance, light induces the expression of glutamine synthetase (GLN2) and represses expression of asparagine synthetase (ASN1) genes. This reciprocal regulation of GLN2 and ASN1 genes by light is reflected at the level of transcription and at the level of glutamine and asparagine biosynthesis. Moreover, we have shown that the regulation of these genes is also reciprocally controlled by both organic nitrogen and carbon metabolites. We have recently used a reverse genetic approach to study putative components of such metabolic sensing mechanisms in plants that may be conserved in evolution. These components include an Arabidopsis homolog for a glutamate receptor gene originally found in animal systems and a plant PII gene, which is a homolog of a component of the bacterial Ntr system. Based on our observations on the biology of both structural and regulatory genes of the nitrogen assimilatory pathway, we have developed a model for metabolic control of the genes involved in the nitrogen assimilatory pathway in plants.

Intensification of Operation of Inclined Plate Settler at Fertilizer Plant

Fertilizer plant’s process waters contain high concentrations of nitrogen compounds, such as ammonium and nitrate. Phosphorus and fluorine, which originate from phosphoric acid and rock phosphate (apatite) used in fertilizer production, are also present. Phosphorus and nitrogen are the primary nutrients causing eutrophication of surface waters. At fertilizer plant process waters are held in closed internal circulation. In a scrubber system process waters are used for washing exhaust gases from fertilizer reactors and dry gases from granulation drums as well as for cooling down the fertilizer slurry in neutralization reactor. Solids in process waters are separated in an inclined plate settler by gravitational sedimentation. However, the operation of inclined plate settler has been inadequate. The aim of this thesis was to intensify the operation of inclined plate settler and thus the solids separation e.g. through coagulation and/or flocculation process. Chemical precipitation was studied to reduce the amount of dissolved species in process waters. Specific interest was in precipitation of nitrogen, phosphorus, and fluorine containing specimens. Amounts of phosphorus and fluorine were reduced significantly by chemical precipitation. When compared to earlier studies, annual chemical costs were almost eight times lower. Instead, nitrogen compounds are readily dissolved in water, thus being difficult to remove by precipitation. Possible alternative techniques for nitrogen removal are adsorption, ion exchange, and reverse osmosis. Settling velocities of pH adjusted and flocculated process waters were sufficient for the operation of inclined plate settler. Design principles of inclined plate settler are also presented. In continuation studies, flow conditions in inclined plate settler should be modelled with computational fluid dynamics and suitability of adsorbents, ion exchange resins, and membranes should be studied in laboratory scale tests.

The quest for a better understanding of chronic kidney disease complications: an update on uremic toxins

Chronic kidney disease is characterized by a progressive reduction of glomerular filtration rate and/or the appearance of proteinuria, and subsequently the progressive retention of organic waste compounds called uremic toxins (UT). Over the last decades, a large number of such compounds have been identified and their effects on organs and tissues, especially the cardiovascular system, has been demonstrated. In this review, we present the current classification of UT, as proposed by the EUTox Group, and the effects of some of the probably most important UTs, such as phosphate, FGF-23, PTH, AGEs, indoxyl sulfate and para-cresyl sulfate. We provide an overview on therapeutic approaches aimed to increase their extracorporeal removal via convective and/or adsorptive strategies and to lower their intestinal production/ absorption via dietetic and pharmacological interventions. The recognition that multiple toxins contribute to the uremia supports the need for new therapeutic targets, with a potentially positive impact on CKD progression and survival.

Unraveling a Benchmark for Sulphur Akin in the Cochin Estuarine System

The thesis deals with a benchmark study of dissolved and sedimentary sulphur compounds which play prominent roles in the prevailing redox conditions in the selected sites of Cochin estuarine system. Sulphur and its analogues play prominent roles in estuarine biochemical processes. A complete knowledge on the sulphur involvement in these processes is restricted due to the lacking of data on the organic sulphur compounds. Sulphate and sulphide in surface and bottom water and Sulphate, acid volatile sulphide and total sulphur in sediments were studied and correlated to know their interrelations in determining the redox condition of the environment. It also characterises the sediments of the sites on the basis of total organic carbon: total sulphur ratio. The study had attempted to decrease the concentration levels of sulphur in the sedimentary environment by the application of a remedial measure. Knowledge of sulphur uptake by plants from prior literatures has prompted to use phytoremediation for decreasing the sulphur concentration. Phytoremediation is an emerging technology that uses plants to clean up or remediate contaminated soil, sludges, sediments, and ground water through contaminant removal, degradation or containment. The plant selected was wheat grass since earlier studies have shown that wheat grass is effective in remediating pollutants particularly trace metals. So reduction in the concentration of selected trace metals was also focussed.

Nutrient dynamics in the sediments of Kerala coast

Kerala is one of the smallest states in India which is situated in the south west coast of the country. Sediment samples from four prominent areas of Kerala Coast were collected and analyzed for nutrients. Variation of nutrients was highlighted according to the distributional characteristics of the designated sites. Nutrient trend in Cape, Trivandrum, Kollam was in the order as Ammonia > Nitrite >Nitrate, where as Cochin showed the trend as Ammonia > Nitrate > Nitrite. Greater concentration of ammonia in the entire sediments showed the ammonification of nitrogen compounds

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Compromiso neurológico periférico y exposición a plaguicidas en cultivadores de arroz en una zona rural, Colombia.

Objetivos Mediante un estudio descriptivo transversal, establecer la presencia de una relación entre los niveles de exposición a plaguicidas con la presencia de hallazgos clínicos neurológicos periféricos en personas expuestas ocupacionalmente a estos. Resultados La muestra poblacional fue de 59 trabajadores, en el área rural del municipio del Espinal, Tolima. El 52% de la población refirió usar organofosforados, 32 % carbamatos, 16% organoclorados, y 66% otros grupos de plaguicidas. Los niveles sanguíneos de carbamatos estuvieron presentes en el 7% de la población, organofosforados en el 66% y organoclorados en el 100%. En el 42% de la población se estableció sospecha de neuropatía a partir de los síntomas y en el 92% a partir de los signos. Se estableció asociación estadísticamente significativa entre los niveles sanguíneos de determinados organoclorados con la sospecha de neuropatía periférica a partir de síntomas; la presencia de sensación de pérdida de la fuerza en extremidades y la presencia de alteraciones en los reflejos osteotendinosos. Conclusiones El presente estudio permitió identificar los plaguicidas a los cuales está expuesta la población agrícola del municipio del Espinal así como corrobora el efecto de bioacumulación y biomagnificación de los organoclorados. Adicionalmente, se detectó la presencia de hallazgos sugestivos de compromiso neurológico periférico, con asociaciones significativas entre ciertas anormalidades y determinados organoclorados. Este estudio es una aproximación a la relación entre la exposición a plaguicidas de la población agrícola de la zona rural del municipio del Espinal con la secuelas neurológicos periféricas asociadas a esta.

Emissions de N2O i desnitrificació en sòls agrícoles i d'ecosistemes naturals. Factors de regulació

La major conscienciació actual dels problemes de pol·lució que acompanyen les pèrdues de N del sòl cap a l'atmosfera ha reorientat les investigacions cap a un coneixement més profund dels processos implicats en les emissions dels compostos nitrogenats que comporten un major perjudici des d'un punt de vista ecològic així com els seus principals factors reguladors. La creixent preocupació per l'increment de la concentració atmosfèrica de N2O és deguda a les seves interaccions amb la fotoquímica atmosfèrica i el balanç de radiació de la Terra ja que intervé en la destrucció de la capa estratosfèrica d'ozó, contribueix a l'efecte hivernacle i participa de la pluja àcida. Es considera que els sòls són la principal font de N2O atmosfèric. Al voltant del 90% d'aquestes emissions són d'origen biòtic; els principals processos implicats són la desnitrificació i la nitrificació. L'emissió del N2O produït a través d'aquests dos processos es caracteritza pels diferents nivells de regulació que presenta ja que depèn de la taxa dels processos, de la proporció de N canalitzada per cada procés cap a la producció de N2O i del seu consum dins el mateix sòl el qual està relacionat amb les dificultats en el transport cap a l'atmosfera. Això comporta una gran dificultat a l'hora d'aprofundir en el coneixement de les emissions de N2O del sòl cap a l'atmosfera i de la seva regulació. El desconeixement dels nivells d'emissió de N2O i de la importància de la desnitrificació així com de la seva regulació tant en sòls agrícoles com naturals de les nostres contrades és el principal punt de partida dels objectius d'aquest treball.

A study of the aroma of fried bacon and fried pork loin

Aroma compounds in the headspace volatiles of fried bacon and fried pork loin were identified. The concentrations of volatiles in bacon were much lower than those in pork loin, except for nitrogen compounds. It is likely that these differences were caused by the presence of nitrite in bacon. Characteristic aromas for fried bacon, described variously as bacon-, fried meat-, roast meat- and cooked meat-like, were found through olfactory testing. These aromas were not present in the pork loin samples. Compounds such as pyrazines, pyridines and furans are thought to be responsible for these meaty aromas. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Contribution of N Species and P Fractions to Stream Water Quality in Agricultural Catchments

The contribution from agricultural catchments to stream nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations was assessed by evaluation of the chemical composition of these nutrients in agricultural runoff for both surface and subsurface flow pathways. A range of land uses (grazed and ungrazed grassland, cereals, roots) in intensive agricultural systems was studied at scales from hillslope plots (0.5m2) to large catchment (>300km2). By fractionating the total nutrient load it was possible to establish that most of the phosphorus was transported in the unreactive (particulate and organic) fraction via surface runoff. This was true regardless of the scale of measurement. The form of the nitrogen load varied with land use and grazing intensity. High loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (with >90% transported as NH4-N) were recorded in surface runoff from heavily grazed land. In subsurface flow from small (2km2) subcatchments and in larger (>300 km2) catchments, organic nitrogen was found to be an important secondary constituent of the total nitrogen load, comprising 40% of the total annual load.