933 resultados para oil price uncertainty
Resumo:
Stock assessments can be problematic because of uncertainties associated with the data or because of simplified assumptions made when modeling biological processes (Rosenberg and Restrepo, 1995). For example, the common assumption in stock assessments that stocks are homogeneous and discrete (i.e., there is no migration between the stocks) is not necessarily true (Kell et al., 2004a, 2004b).
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Between 1995 and 2002, we surveyed fish assemblages at seven oil platforms off southern and central California using the manned research submersible Delta. At each platform, there is a large horizontal beam situated at or near the sea floor. In some instances, shells and sediment have buried this beam and in other instances it is partially or completely exposed. We found that fish species responded in various ways to the amount of exposure of the beam. A few species, such as blackeye goby (Rhinogobiops nicholsii), greenstriped rockfish (Sebastes elongatus), and pink seaperch (Zalembius rosaceus) tended to avoid the beam. However, many species that typically associate with natural rocky outcrops, such as bocaccio (S. paucispinis), cowcod (S. levis), copper (S. caurinus), greenblotched (S. rosenblatti), pinkrose (S. simulator) and vermilion (S. miniatus) rockfishes, were found most often where the beam was exposed. In particular, a group of species (e.g., bocaccio, cowcod, blue (Sebastes mystinus), and vermilion rockfishes) called here the “sheltering habitat” guild, lived primarily where the beam was exposed and formed a crevice. This work demonstrates that the presence of sheltering sites is important in determining the species composition of man-made reefs and, likely, natural reefs. This research also indicates that adding structures that form sheltering sites in and around decommissioned platforms will likely lead to higher densities of many species typical of hard and complex structure.
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To investigate the possibility that oil and gas platforms may reduce recruitment of rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) to natural habitat, we simulated drift pathways termed “trajectories” in our model) from an existing oil platform to nearshore habitat using current measurements from high-frequency (HF) radars. The trajectories originated at Platform Irene, located west of Point Conception, California, during two recruiting seasons for bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis): May through August, 1999 and 2002. Given that pelagic juvenile bocaccio dwell near the surface, the trajectories estimate transport to habitat. We assumed that appropriate shallow water juvenile habitat exists inshore of the 50-m isobath. Results from 1999 indicated that 10% of the trajectories represent transport to habitat, whereas 76% represent transport across the offshore boundary. For 2002, 24% represent transport to habitat, and 69% represent transport across the offshore boundary. Remaining trajectories (14% and 7% for 1999 and 2002, respectively) exited the coverage area either northward or southward along isobaths. Deployments of actual drifters (with 1-m drogues) from a previous multiyear study provided measurements originating near Platform Irene from May through August. All but a few of the drifters moved offshore, as was also shown with the HF radar-derived trajectories. These results indicate that most juvenile bocaccio settling on the platform would otherwise have been transported offshore and perished in the absence of a platform. However, these results do not account for the swimming behavior of juvenile bocaccio, about which little is known.
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B:RUN is a low-level GIS software designed to help formulate options for the management of the coastal zone of Brunei Darussalam. This contribution presents the oil spill simulation module of B:RUN. This simple module, based largely on wind and sea surface current vector parameters, may be helpful in formulating relevant oil spill contingency plans. It can be easily adapted to other areas, as can the B:RUN software itself.
Resumo:
Os métodos tradicionais de estimular a produção de petróleo, envolvendo a injeção de água, vapor, gás ou outros produtos, estabeleceram a base conceitual para novos métodos de extração de óleo, utilizando micro-organismos e processos biológicos. As tecnologias que empregam os processos de bioestimulação e bioaumentação já são amplamente utilizadas em inúmeras aplicações industriais, farmacêuticas e agroindustriais, e mais recentemente, na indústria do petróleo. Dada a enorme dimensão econômica da indústria do petróleo, qualquer tecnologia que possa aumentar a produção ou o fator de recuperação de um campo petrolífero gera a expectativa de grandes benefícios técnicos, econômicos e estratégicos. Buscando avaliar o possível impacto de MEOR (microbial enhanced oil recovery) no fator de recuperação das reservas de óleo e gás no Brasil, e quais técnicas poderiam ser mais indicadas, foi feito um amplo estudo dessas técnicas e de diversos aspectos da geologia no Brasil. Também foram realizados estudos preliminares de uma técnica de MEOR (bioacidificação) com possível aplicabilidade em reservatórios brasileiros. Os resultados demonstram que as técnicas de MEOR podem ser eficazes na produção, solubilização, emulsificação ou transformação de diversos compostos, e que podem promover outros efeitos físicos no óleo ou na matriz da rocha reservatório. Também foram identificadas bacias petrolíferas brasileiras e recursos não convencionais com maior potencial para utilização de determinadas técnicas de MEOR. Finalmente, foram identificadas algumas técnicas de MEOR que merecem maiores estudos, entre as técnicas mais consolidadas (como a produção de biossurfatantes e biopolímeros, e o controle da biocorrosão), e as que ainda não foram completamente viabilizadas (como a gaseificação de carvão, óleo e matéria orgânica; a dissociação microbiana de hidratos de gás; a bioconversão de CO2 em metano; e a bioacidificação). Apesar de seu potencial ainda não ser amplamente reconhecido, as técnicas de MEOR representam o limiar de uma nova era na estimulação da produção de recursos petrolíferos existentes, e até mesmo para os planos de desenvolvimento de novas áreas petrolíferas e recursos energéticos. Este trabalho fornece o embasamento técnico para sugerir novas iniciativas, reconhecer o potencial estratégico de MEOR, e para ajudar a realizar seu pleno potencial e seus benefícios.
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This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.
Resumo:
Whaling for humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, in the North At- lantic Ocean has occurred in various forms (e.g. for local subsistence, for oil to be sold commercially, using hand harpoons and deck-mounted cannons, using oar-driven open boats and modern powered catcher boats) from the early 1600’s to the present. Several previous attempts to estimate the total numbers of humpback whales removed were considered close to comprehensive, but some uncertainties remained. Moreover, the statistical uncertainty was not consistently presented with the previous estimates. Therefore, we have pursued several avenues of additional data collection and conducted further analyses to close outstanding data gaps and address remaining issues. Our new estimates of landings and total removals of humpback whales from the North Atlantic are 21,476 (SE=214) and 30,842 (SE=655), respectively. These results include statistical uncertainty, reflect new data and improved analysis methods, and take account of some fisheries for which estimates had not been made previously. The new estimates are not sufficiently different from previous ones to resolve the major inconsistencies and discrepancies encountered in efforts to determine the conservation status of humpback whale populations in the North Atlantic.
Resumo:
O crescente fluxo global de investimentos estrangeiros coloca o tema da regulação dos investimentos estrangeiros no cerne das preocupações do Direito Internacional. Em uma estrutura formal com diversos níveis, o Direito Internacional dos Investimentos passa por constantes readaptações e reconstruções. Diversas alternativas teóricas têm sido propostas para responder aos muitos questionamentos relativos ao futuro do Direito Internacional dos Investimentos. Ao longo das décadas, o Brasil optou por manter-se isolado do regime internacional de regulação de investimentos estrangeiros, de maneira que a questão permaneceu regulada inteiramente por um mosaico normativo disperso entre normas constitucionais e infraconstitucionais. O crescente papel do Brasil como país exportador de capitais especialmente em virtude da expansão da indústria do petróleo e gás levou à recente revisão das diretrizes de política externa em matéria de investimentos estrangeiros. A decisão de negociar acordos internacionais de investimentos pode trazer diversas consequências para o ordenamento jurídico doméstico, dentre as quais se destaca a interferência do padrão de tratamento justo e equitativo no exercício do poder regulatório pelo Estado. A recorrente invocação do padrão de tratamento justo e equitativo contrasta com as incertezas sobre seu conteúdo. Ainda que possa existir uma compatibilidade teórica entre esse padrão de tratamento e o Direito brasileiro, a exposição às interpretações criativas dos tribunais arbitrais pode representar um risco para o Brasil, que deve cuidadosamente avaliar a pertinência de incluir uma cláusula do padrão de tratamento justo e equitativo nos acordos atualmente em negociação.
Resumo:
This study was designed to evaluate the travel characteristics of avid marine anglers off Louisiana in the Central Gulf of Mexico. It focuses on the complex marine travel patterns involving the extensive assemblage of oil and gas structures. In an intercept approach, marine recreationalf isherman were asked to identify near and offshore travel patterns on the day of the interview. Information was also solicited regarding how respondents selected and located fishing destinations as well as what method of fishing was undertaken that day. Petroleum platforms were a principal fishing destination, and platform anglers traveled an average distance of 75.5 km (40.7 n.mi.) to and from offshore fishing locations. In fishing an average of 6.5 platforms per trip, these anglers traveled about 21.3 km (11.5 n.mi.) between the first and last platform visited. Mean total distances for platform anglers were 96 km (51.8 n.mi). Travel distances for bay, nearshore, and bluewater anglers were also obtained.
Resumo:
Many studies have been made of the effects of oil on marine invertebrates, plants (marine algae and phytoplankton), and vertebrates such as seabirds and marine mammals. An excellent review of these findings, which includes some references to fish and pathological effects of aromatic hydrocarbons, has been published by the Royal Society, London (Clark, 1982). That review dealt with the environmental effects of such major oil spills or releases such as those by the tankers Torry Canyon (119,000 t) on the south coast of England, Metula (50-56,000 t) in the Straits of Magellan, Argo Merchant (26,000 t) off Cape Cod, and the super tanker Amoco Cadiz (223,000 t) on the coast of northern Brittany. Those spills were studied to determine their effect on living resources. In contrast there are few references on the impact of oil spills on pelagic fishery resources.