Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

A prospective study of predictors of poststroke depression.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between early depressive behavior after stroke onset and occurrence of poststroke depression (PSD) at 3- and 12-month follow-up evaluations. METHODS: The study prospectively included 273 patients with first-ever single uncomplicated ischemic stroke. In the stroke unit, nurses scored crying, overt sadness, and apathy daily using an observational method to include patients with comprehension deficits. The Barthel Index was used to assess disability. Follow-up evaluation at months 3 and 12 included psychiatric assessment based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition. RESULTS: Crying (19.8%), overt sadness (50.5%), and apathy (47.6%) were observed. Of the patients observed crying, 4 showed pathologic crying, 19 emotionalism, and 12 catastrophic reactions. Crying and overt sadness, but not apathy, were associated with a subjective experience of depression (p < 0.05). Thirty of 52 (58%) patients observed crying, 12 of 19 (63%) patients with emotionalism, and 5 of 12 (41%) patients with catastrophic reactions developed PSD within the first year. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only severe functional disability (odds ratio [OR], 4.31; 95% CI, 2.41 to 7.69), crying behaviors (OR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.35 to 5.27), and an age <68 years (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.30 to 4.13) were (p < 0.05) predictors of late PSD development (13% of the variance). CONCLUSIONS: In the stroke unit, crying and overt sadness are more reliable indicators of depressed mood than apathy. In patients with first-ever stroke, crying behaviors soon after stroke, a younger age, and severe disability are predictors of poststroke depression occurrence within the first year after stroke onset.

Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

Brief DISCERN, six questions for the evaluation of evidence-based content of health-related websites.

OBJECTIVE: To extract and to validate a brief version of the DISCERN which could identify mental health-related websites with good content quality. METHOD: The present study is based on the analysis of data issued from six previous studies which used DISCERN and a standardized tool for the evaluation of content quality (evidence-based health information) of 388 mental health-related websites. After extracting the Brief DISCERN, several psychometric properties (content validity through a Factor analysis, internal consistency by the Cronbach's alpha index, predictive validity through the diagnostic tests, concurrent validity by the strength of association between the Brief DISCERN and the original DISCERN scores) were investigated to ascertain its general applicability. RESULTS: A Brief DISCERN composed of two factors and six items was extracted from the original 16 items version of the DISCERN. Cronbach's alpha coefficients were more than acceptable for the complete questionnaire (alpha=0.74) and for the two distinct domains: treatments information (alpha=0.87) and reliability (alpha=0.83). Sensibility and specificity of the Brief DISCERN cut-off score > or =16 in the detection of good content quality websites were 0.357 and 0.945, respectively. Its predictive positive and negative values were 0.98 and 0.83, respectively. A statistically significant linear correlation was found between the total scores of the Brief DISCERN and those of the original DISCERN (r=0.84 and p<0.0005). CONCLUSION: The Brief DISCERN seems to be a reliable and valid instrument able to discriminate between websites with good and poor content quality. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: The Brief DISCERN is a simple tool which could facilitate the identification of good information on the web by patients and general consumers.

Anàlisi factorial confirmatòria per a variables categòriques: Aplicació al qüestionari de discapacitat WHODAS-II

Objective: To describe the methodology of Confirmatory Factor Analyis for categorical items and to apply this methodology to evaluate the factor structure and invariance of the WHO-Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS-II) questionnaire, developed by the World HealthOrganization.Methods: Data used for the analysis come from the European Study of Mental Disorders(ESEMeD), a cross-sectional interview to a representative sample of the general population of 6 european countries (n=8796). Respondents were administered a modified version of theWHODAS-II, that measures functional disability in the previous 30 days in 6 differentdimensions: Understanding and Communicating; Self-Care, Getting Around, Getting Along withOthers, Life Activities and Participation. The questionnaire includes two types of items: 22severity items (5 points likert) and 8 frequency items (continuous). An Exploratory factoranalysis (EFA) with promax rotation was conducted on a random 50% of the sample. Theremaining half of the sample was used to perform a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) inorder to compare three different models: (a) the model suggested by the results obtained in theEFA; (b) the theoretical model suggested by the WHO with 6 dimensions; (c) a reduced modelequivalent to model b where 4 of the frequency items are excluded. Moreover, a second orderfactor was also evaluated. Finally, a CFA with covariates was estimated in order to evaluatemeasurement invariance of the items between Mediterranean and non-mediterranean countries.Results: The solution that provided better results in the EFA was that containing 7 factors. Twoof the frequency items presented high factor loadings in the same factor, and one of thempresented factor loadings smaller than 0.3 with all the factors. With regard to the CFA, thereduced model (model c) presented the best goodness of fit results (CFI=0.992,TLI=0.996,RMSEA=0.024). The second order factor structure presented adequate goodness of fit (CFI=0.987,TLI=0.991, RMSEA=0.036). Measurement non-invariance was detected for one of the items of thequestionnaire (FD20 ¿ Embarrassment due to health problems).Conclusions: AFC confirmed the initial hypothesis about the factorial structure of the WHODAS-II in 6factors. The second order factor supports the existence of a global dimension of disability. The use of 4of the frequency items is not recommended in the scoring of the corresponding dimensions.

Slow dynamis in the 3D gonihedric model

We provide analytical evidence of stochastic resonance in polarization switching vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs). We describe the VCSEL by a two-mode stochastic rate equation model and apply a multiple time-scale analysis. We were able to reduce the dynamical description to a single stochastic differential equation, which is the starting point of the analytical study of stochastic resonance. We confront our results with numerical simulations on the original rate equations, validating the use of a multiple time-scale analysis on stochastic equations as an analytical tool.

Persistent hyperglycemia at 24-48 h in acute hyperglycemic stroke patients is not associated with a worse functional outcome.

BACKGROUND: Recently, it was shown that the relation between admission glucose and functional outcome after ischemic stroke is described by a J-shaped curve, with a glucose range of 3.7-7.3 mmol/l associated with a favorable outcome. We tested the hypothesis that persistence of hyperglycemia above this threshold at 24-48 h after stroke onset impairs 3-month functional outcome. METHODS: We analyzed all patients with glucose >7.3 mmol/l on admission from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL). Patients were divided into two groups according to their subacute glucose level at 24-48 h after last well-being time (group 1: ≤7.3 mmol/l, group 2: >7.3 mmol/l). A favorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Score (mRS) ≤2 at 3 months. A multiple logistic regression analysis of multiple demographic, clinical, laboratory and neuroimaging covariates was performed to assess predictors of an unfavorable outcome. RESULTS: A total of 1,984 patients with ischemic stroke were admitted between January 1, 2003 and October 20, 2009, within 24 h after last well-being time. In the 421 patients (21.2%) with admission glucose >7.3 mmol/l, the proportion of patients with a favorable outcome was not statistically significantly different between the two groups (59.2 vs. 48.7%, respectively). In multiple logistic regression analysis, unfavorable outcome was significantly associated with age (odds ratio, OR: 1.06, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08 for every 10-year increase), National Institute of Health Stroke Score, NIHSS score, on admission (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.11-1.21), prehospital mRS (OR: 12.63, 95% CI: 2.61-61.10 for patients with score >0), antidiabetic drug usage (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.15-0.86) and glucose on admission (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.31 for every 1 mmol/l increase). No association was found between persistent hyperglycemia at 24-28 h and outcome in either diabetics or nondiabetics. CONCLUSIONS: In ischemic stroke patients with acute hyperglycemia, persistent hyperglycemia (>7.3 mmol/l) at 24-48 h after stroke onset is not associated with a worse functional outcome at 3 months whether the patient was previously diabetic or not.

Putting Public Service Motivation into Context. A Balance Between Universalism and Particularism

Research on Public Service Motivation (PSM) has increased enormously in the last 20 years. Besides the analysis of the antecedents of PSM and its impact on organizations and individuals, many open questions about the nature of PSM itself still remain. This article argues that the theoretical construct of PSM should be contextualized by integrating the political and administrative contexts of public servants when investigating their specific attitudes towards working in a public environment. It also challenges the efficacy of the classic four-dimensional structure of PSM when it is applied to a specific context. The findings of a confirmatory factor analysis from a dataset of 3754 employees of 279 Swiss municipalities support the appropriateness of contextualizing parts of the PSM construct. They also support the addition of an extra dimension called, according to previous research, Swiss democratic governance. With regard to our results, there is a need for further PSM research to set a definite measure of PSM, particularly in regard to the international diffusion of empirical research on PSM.Points for practitionersThis study shows that public service motivation is a relevant construct for practitioners and may be used to better assess whether public agents are motivated by values or not. Nevertheless, it stresses also that the measurement of PSM must be adapted to the institutional context as well. Public managers interested in understanding better the degree to which their employees are motivated by public values must be aware that the measurement of this PSM construct has to be contextualized. In other words, PSM is also a function of the institutional environment in which organizations operate.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Analytical Measures of Learners' Written Interlanguage

This paper aims at reconsidering some analytical measures to best encapsulate the interlanguage, in writing, of young beginner learners of English as a foreign language in the light of previous and work-in-progress research conducted within the BAF project, and in particular, whether clause and sentence length should be best viewed as a fluency or syntactic complexity measusre or as part of a different construct. In the light of a factor analysis (Navés, forthcoming) and multivariate and correlation studies (Navés et al. 2003, Navés, 2006, Torres et al. 2006) it becomes clear that the relationship between different analytical measures is also dependent on learner¿s cognitive maturity (age) and proficiency (amount of instruction). Finally, clause and sentence length should not be viewed as either a fluency or sytactic complexity measure but as part of a different construct. It is concluded that further research using regression analysis and cluster analysis is neeed in order to identify and validate the constructs of the writing components and their measurements.

Irritability in pre-clinical Huntington's disease.

Irritability, together with depression and anxiety, form three salient clinical features of pre-symptomatic Huntington's disease (HD). To date, the understanding of irritability in HD suffers from a paucity of experimental data and is largely based on questionnaires or clinical anecdotes. Factor analysis suggests that irritability is related to impulsivity and aggression and is likely to engage the same neuronal circuits as these behaviours, including areas such as medial orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and amygdala. 16 pre-symptomatic gene carriers (PSCs) and 15 of their companions were asked to indicate the larger of two squares consecutively shown on a screen while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Despite correct identification of the larger square, participants were often told that they or their partner had given the wrong answer. Size differences were subtle to make negative feedback credible but detectable. Although task performance, baseline irritability, and reported task-induced irritation were the same for both groups, fMRI revealed distinct neuronal processing in those who will later develop HD. In controls but not PSCs, task-induced irritation correlated positively with amygdala activation and negatively with OFC activation. Repetitive negative feedback induced greater amygdala activations in controls than PSCs. In addition, the inverse functional coupling between amygdala and OFC was significantly weaker in PSCs compared to controls. Our results argue that normal emotion processing circuits are disrupted in PSCs via attenuated modulation of emotional status by external or internal indicators. At later stages, this dysfunction may increase the risk for developing recognised, HD-associated, psychiatric symptoms such as irritability.

The Beck Cognitive Insight Scale in outpatients with psychotic disorders: further evidence from a French-speaking sample.

OBJECTIVE: The Beck Cognitive Insight Scale (BCIS) evaluates patients' self-report of their ability to detect and correct misinterpretation. Our study aims to confirm the factor structure and the convergent validity of the original scale in a French-speaking environment. METHOD: Outpatients (n = 158) suffering from schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders fulfilled the BCIS. The 51 patients in Montpellier were equally assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) by a psychiatrist who was blind of the BCIS scores. RESULTS: The fit indices of the confirmatory factor analysis validated the 2-factor solution reported by the developers of the scale with inpatients, and in another study with middle-aged and older outpatients. The BCIS composite index was significantly negatively correlated with the clinical insight item of the PANSS. CONCLUSIONS: The French translation of the BCIS appears to have acceptable psychometric properties and gives additional support to the scale, as well as cross-cultural validity for its use with outpatients suffering from schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders. The correlation between clinical and composite index of cognitive insight underlines the multidimensional nature of clinical insight. Cognitive insight does not recover clinical insight but is a potential target for developing psychological treatments that will improve clinical insight.

Assessment of the COOP charts with and without pictures in a Swiss population.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the validity of COOP charts in a general population sample, to examine whether illustrations contribute to instrument validity, and to establish general population norms. METHODS: A general population mail survey was conducted among 20-79 years old residents of the Swiss canton of Vaud. Participants were invited to complete COOP charts, the SF-36 Health Survey; they also provided data on health service use in the previous month. Two thirds of the respondents received standard COOP charts, the rest received charts without illustrations. RESULTS: Overall 1250 persons responded (54%). The presence of illustrations did not affect score distributions, except that the illustrated 'physical fitness' chart drew greater non-response (10 vs. 3%, p < 0.001). Validity tests were similar for illustrated and picture-less charts. Factor analysis yielded two principal components, corresponding to physical and mental health. Six COOP charts showed strong and nearly linear relationships with corresponding SF36 scores (all p < 0.001), demonstrating concurrent validity. Similarly, most COOP charts were associated with the use of medical services in the past month. Only the chart on 'social support' partly deviated from construct validity hypotheses. Population norms revealed a generally lower health status in women and an age-related decline in physical health. CONCLUSIONS: COOP charts can be used to assess the health status of a general population. Their validity is good, with the possible exception of the 'social support' chart. The illustrations do not affect the properties of this instrument.

Construct validity and internal reliability of a French version of FACES III in adolescents and adults

Family cohesion and adaptability, as operationalised in the Family Adaptability and Cohesion Scales III (FACES III), are two hypothesised dimensions of family functioning. We tested the properties of a French version of FACES III in school-children (mean age: 13 years; S.D:0.85) recruited from the general population and their parents. Separate confirmatory factor analyses were performed for adolescents and adults. The results of both analyses were compatible with a two-factor structure similar to that proposed by the authors of the original instrument. However, orthogonality between the two factors was only supported in the adult data. Internal reliability estimates were 0.78 and 0.68 in adolescents and 0.82 and 0.65 in adults, for cohesion and adaptability respectively.

Treatment of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, a permanent challenge or a waste of resources? Prediction of outcome using a multi-organ-dysfunction score.

OBJECTIVES: in a retrospective study, attempts have been made to identify individual organ-dysfunction risk profiles influencing the outcome after surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms. METHODS: out of 235 patients undergoing graft replacement for abdominal aortic aneurysms, 57 (53 men, four women, mean age 72 years [s.d. 8.8]) were treated for ruptured aneurysms in a 3-year period. Forty-eight preoperative, 13 intraoperative and 34 postoperative variables were evaluated statistically. A simple multi-organ dysfunction (MOD) score was adopted. RESULTS: the perioperative mortality was 32%. Three patients died intraoperatively, four within 48 h and 11 died later. A significant influence for pre-existing risk factors was identified only for cardiovascular diseases. Multiple linear-regression analysis indicated that a haemoglobin <90 g/l, systolic blood pressure <80 mmHg and ECG signs of ischaemia at admission were highly significant risk factors. The cause of death for patients, who died more than 48 h postoperatively, was mainly MOD. All patients with a MOD score >/=4 died (n=7). These patients required 27% of the intensive-care unit (ICU) days of all patients and 72% of the ICU days of the non-survivors. CONCLUSION: patients with ruptured aortic aneurysms from treatment should not be excluded. However, a physiological scoring system after 48 h appears justifiable in order to decide on the appropriateness of continual ICU support.