916 resultados para modeling and prediction


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This thesis develops an effective modeling and simulation procedure for a specific thermal energy storage system commonly used and recommended for various applications (such as an auxiliary energy storage system for solar heating based Rankine cycle power plant). This thermal energy storage system transfers heat from a hot fluid (termed as heat transfer fluid - HTF) flowing in a tube to the surrounding phase change material (PCM). Through unsteady melting or freezing process, the PCM absorbs or releases thermal energy in the form of latent heat. Both scientific and engineering information is obtained by the proposed first-principle based modeling and simulation procedure. On the scientific side, the approach accurately tracks the moving melt-front (modeled as a sharp liquid-solid interface) and provides all necessary information about the time-varying heat-flow rates, temperature profiles, stored thermal energy, etc. On the engineering side, the proposed approach is unique in its ability to accurately solve – both individually and collectively – all the conjugate unsteady heat transfer problems for each of the components of the thermal storage system. This yields critical system level information on the various time-varying effectiveness and efficiency parameters for the thermal storage system.

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Polycarbonate (PC) is an important engineering thermoplastic that is currently produced in large industrial scale using bisphenol A and monomers such as phosgene. Since phosgene is highly toxic, a non-phosgene approach using diphenyl carbonate (DPC) as an alternative monomer, as developed by Asahi Corporation of Japan, is a significantly more environmentally friendly alternative. Other advantages include the use of CO2 instead of CO as raw material and the elimination of major waste water production. However, for the production of DPC to be economically viable, reactive-distillation units are needed to obtain the necessary yields by shifting the reaction-equilibrium to the desired products and separating the products at the point where the equilibrium reaction occurs. In the field of chemical reaction engineering, there are many reactions that are suffering from the low equilibrium constant. The main goal of this research is to determine the optimal process needed to shift the reactions by using appropriate control strategies of the reactive distillation system. An extensive dynamic mathematical model has been developed to help us investigate different control and processing strategies of the reactive distillation units to increase the production of DPC. The high-fidelity dynamic models include extensive thermodynamic and reaction-kinetics models while incorporating the necessary mass and energy balance of the various stages of the reactive distillation units. The study presented in this document shows the possibility of producing DPC via one reactive distillation instead of the conventional two-column, with a production rate of 16.75 tons/h corresponding to start reactants materials of 74.69 tons/h of Phenol and 35.75 tons/h of Dimethyl Carbonate. This represents a threefold increase over the projected production rate given in the literature based on a two-column configuration. In addition, the purity of the DPC produced could reach levels as high as 99.5% with the effective use of controls. These studies are based on simulation done using high-fidelity dynamic models.

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Electrospinning (ES) can readily produce polymer fibers with cross-sectional dimensions ranging from tens of nanometers to tens of microns. Qualitative estimates of surface area coverage are rather intuitive. However, quantitative analytical and numerical methods for predicting surface coverage during ES have not been covered in sufficient depth to be applied in the design of novel materials, surfaces, and devices from ES fibers. This article presents a modeling approach to ES surface coverage where an analytical model is derived for use in quantitative prediction of surface coverage of ES fibers. The analytical model is used to predict the diameter of circular deposition areas of constant field strength and constant electrostatic force. Experimental results of polyvinyl alcohol fibers are reported and compared to numerical models to supplement the analytical model derived. The analytical model provides scientists and engineers a method for estimating surface area coverage. Both applied voltage and capillary-to-collection-plate separation are treated as independent variables for the analysis. The electric field produced by the ES process was modeled using COMSOL Multiphysics software to determine a correlation between the applied field strength and the size of the deposition area of the ES fibers. MATLAB scripts were utilized to combine the numerical COMSOL results with derived analytical equations. Experimental results reinforce the parametric trends produced via modeling and lend credibility to the use of modeling techniques for the qualitative prediction of surface area coverage from ES. (Copyright: 2014 American Vacuum Society.)

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: This prospective, clinical pilot trial compared the Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) and a nine-item quality of recovery [Quality of Recovery 9 (QoR-9)] survey to assess the 1-week outcome after liver resection and prediction of postoperative complications from baseline values before liver resection. METHODS: In 19 patients, the SF-36 was recorded preoperatively (baseline) and on postoperative day (POD) 7. SF-36 z-values (means +/- SD) for the physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) were calculated. QoR-9 (score 0-18) was performed at baseline, POD1, POD3, POD5 and POD7. Descriptive analysis and effect sizes (d) were calculated. RESULTS: From baseline to POD7, PCS decreased from -0.38 +/- 1.30 to -2.10 +/- 0.76 (P = 0.002, d = -1.57) and MCS from -0.71 +/- 1.50 to -1.33 +/- 1.11 (P = 0.061, d = -0.46). QoR-9 was significantly lower at POD1, POD3 and POD5 compared with baseline (P < 0.050, d < -2.0), but not at POD7 (P = 0.060, d = -1.08). Baseline PCS was significantly lower with a high effect size in patients with complications (n = 12) compared with patients without complications (n = 7) (-0.76 +/- 1.46 vs. 0.27 +/- 0.56; P = 0.044, d = -0.84) but not baseline MCS (P = 0.831, d = -0.10) or baseline QoR-9 (P = 0.384, d = -0.44). CONCLUSIONS: The SF-36 indicates that liver resection surgery has a higher impact on physical health than on mental health. QoR-9 determines the feasible time course of recovery with a 1-week return to baseline. Preoperative impaired physical health might predict postoperative complications.

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The increasing amount of data available about software systems poses new challenges for re- and reverse engineering research, as the proposed approaches need to scale. In this context, concerns about meta-modeling and analysis techniques need to be augmented by technical concerns about how to reuse and how to build upon the efforts of previous research. Moose is an extensive infrastructure for reverse engineering evolved for over 10 years that promotes the reuse of engineering efforts in research. Moose accommodates various types of data modeled in the FAMIX family of meta-models. The goal of this half-day workshop is to strengthen the community of researchers and practitioners who are working in re- and reverse engineering, by providing a forum for building future research starting from Moose and FAMIX as shared infrastructure.

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The increasing amount of data available about software systems poses new challenges for re- and reverse engineering research, as the proposed approaches need to scale. In this context, concerns about meta-modeling and analysis techniques need to be augmented by technical concerns about how to reuse and how to build upon the efforts of previous research. MOOSE is an extensive infrastructure for reverse engineering evolved for over 10 years that promotes the reuse of engineering efforts in research. MOOSE accommodates various types of data modeled in the FAMIX family of meta-models. The goal of this half-day workshop is to strengthen the community of researchers and practitioners who are working in re- and reverse engineering, by providing a forum for building future research starting from MOOSE and FAMIX as shared infrastructure.

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This document corresponds to the tutorial on realistic neural modeling given by David Beeman at WAM-BAMM*05, the first annual meeting of the World Association of Modelers (WAM) Biologically Accurate Modeling Meeting (BAMM) on March 31, 2005 in San Antonio, TX. Part I - Introduction to Realistic Neural Modeling for the Beginner: This is a general overview and introduction to compartmental cell modeling and realistic network simulation for the beginner. Although examples are drawn from GENESIS simulations, the tutorial emphasizes the general modeling approach, rather than the details of using any particular simulator. Part II - Getting Started with Modeling Using GENESIS: This builds upon the background of Part I to describe some details of how this approach is used to construct cell and network simulations in GENESIS. It serves as an introduction and roadmap to the extended hands-on GENESIS Modeling Tutorial.

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This tutorial gives a step by step explanation of how one uses experimental data to construct a biologically realistic multicompartmental model. Special emphasis is given on the many ways that this process can be imprecise. The tutorial is intended for both experimentalists who want to get into computer modeling and for computer scientists who use abstract neural network models but are curious about biological realistic modeling. The tutorial is not dependent on the use of a specific simulation engine, but rather covers the kind of data needed for constructing a model, how they are used, and potential pitfalls in the process.

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Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

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The neurocognitive processes underlying the formation and maintenance of paranormal beliefs are important for understanding schizotypal ideation. Behavioral studies indicated that both schizotypal and paranormal ideation are based on an overreliance on the right hemisphere, whose coarse rather than focussed semantic processing may favor the emergence of 'loose' and 'uncommon' associations. To elucidate the electrophysiological basis of these behavioral observations, 35-channel resting EEG was recorded in pre-screened female strong believers and disbelievers during resting baseline. EEG data were subjected to FFT-Dipole-Approximation analysis, a reference-free frequency-domain dipole source modeling, and Regional (hemispheric) Omega Complexity analysis, a linear approach estimating the complexity of the trajectories of momentary EEG map series in state space. Compared to disbelievers, believers showed: more right-located sources of the beta2 band (18.5-21 Hz, excitatory activity); reduced interhemispheric differences in Omega complexity values; higher scores on the Magical Ideation scale; more general negative affect; and more hypnagogic-like reveries after a 4-min eyes-closed resting period. Thus, subjects differing in their declared paranormal belief displayed different active, cerebral neural populations during resting, task-free conditions. As hypothesized, believers showed relatively higher right hemispheric activation and reduced hemispheric asymmetry of functional complexity. These markers may constitute the neurophysiological basis for paranormal and schizotypal ideation.

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INTRODUCTION Light cure of resin-based adhesives is the mainstay of orthodontic bonding. In recent years, alternatives to conventional halogen lights offering reduced curing time and the potential for lower attachment failure rates have emerged. The relative merits of curing lights in current use, including halogen-based lamps, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and plasma arc lights, have not been analyzed systematically. In this study, we reviewed randomized controlled trials and controlled clinical trials to assess the risks of attachment failure and bonding time in orthodontic patients in whom brackets were cured with halogen lights, LEDs, or plasma arc systems. METHODS Multiple electronic database searches were undertaken, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register, CENTRAL. Language restrictions were not applied. Unpublished literature was searched on ClinicalTrials.gov, the National Research Register, Pro-Quest Dissertation Abstracts, and Thesis database. Search terms included randomized controlled trial, controlled clinical trial, random allocation, double blind method, single blind method, orthodontics, LED, halogen, bond, and bracket. Authors of primary studies were contacted as required, and reference lists of the included studies were screened. RESULTS Randomized controlled trials and clinical controlled trials directly comparing conventional halogen lights, LEDs, or plasma arc systems involving patients with full arch, fixed, or bonded orthodontic appliances (not banded) with follow-up periods of a minimum of 6 months were included. Using predefined forms, 2 authors undertook independent extraction of articles; disagreements were resolved by discussion. The assessment of the risk of bias of the randomized controlled trials was based on the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria; 2 were excluded because of high risk of bias. In the comparison of bond failure risk with halogen lights and plasma arc lights, 1851 brackets were included in both groups. Little statistical heterogeneity was observed in this analysis (I(2) = 4.8%; P = 0.379). There was no statistical difference in bond failure risk between the groups (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.68-1.23; prediction intervals, 0.54, 1.56). Similarly, no statistical difference in bond failure risk was observed in the meta-analysis comparing halogen lights and LEDs (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.64-1.44; prediction intervals, 0.07, 13.32). The pooled estimates from both comparisons were OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.74-1.17; and prediction intervals, 0.69, 1.17. CONCLUSIONS There is no evidence to support the use of 1 light cure type over another based on risk of attachment failure.

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BACKGROUND Providing the highest quality care for dying patients should be a core clinical proficiency and an integral part of comprehensive management, as fundamental as diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to provide expert consensus on phenomena for identification and prediction of the last hours or days of a patient's life. This study is part of the OPCARE9 project, funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme. METHOD The phenomena associated with approaching death were generated using Delphi technique. The Delphi process was set up in three cycles to collate a set of useful and relevant phenomena that identify and predict the last hours and days of life. Each cycle included: (1) development of the questionnaire, (2) distribution of the Delphi questionnaire and (3) review and synthesis of findings. RESULTS The first Delphi cycle of 252 participants (health care professionals, volunteers, public) generated 194 different phenomena, perceptions and observations. In the second cycle, these phenomena were checked for their specific ability to diagnose the last hours/days of life. Fifty-eight phenomena achieved more than 80% expert consensus and were grouped into nine categories. In the third cycle, these 58 phenomena were ranked by a group of palliative care experts (78 professionals, including physicians, nurses, psycho-social-spiritual support; response rate 72%, see Table 1) in terms of clinical relevance to the prediction that a person will die within the next few hours/days. Twenty-one phenomena were determined to have "high relevance" by more than 50% of the experts. Based on these findings, the changes in the following categories (each consisting of up to three phenomena) were considered highly relevant to clinicians in identifying and predicting a patient's last hours/days of life: "breathing", "general deterioration", "consciousness/cognition", "skin", "intake of fluid, food, others", "emotional state" and "non-observations/expressed opinions/other". CONCLUSION Experts from different professional backgrounds identified a set of categories describing a structure within which clinical phenomena can be clinically assessed, in order to more accurately predict whether someone will die within the next days or hours. However, these phenomena need further specification for clinical use.

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Social Networking Sites (SNSs) have become extremely popular around the world. They rely on user-generated content to offer engaging experience to its members. Cultural differences may influence the motivation of users to create and share content on SNS. This study adopts the privacy calculus perspective to examine the role of culture in individual self-disclosure decisions. The authors use structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis to investigate this dynamics. The findings reveal the importance of cultural dimensions of individualism and uncertainty avoidance in the cognitive processes of SNS users.

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The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

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As social networking sites (SNSs) become increasingly global, the issues of cultural differences in participation patterns become acute. However, current research offers only limited insights into the role of culture behind SNS usage. Aiming to fill this gap, this study adopts a ‘privacy calculus’ perspective to study the differences between German and American SNS users. Results of structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis reveal distinct variability in the cognitive patterns of American and German subjects. We contribute to the theory by rejecting the universal nature of privacy-calculus processes. From a practical standpoint, our results signal that SNS providers cannot rely on the “proven” means in ensuring user participation when crossing geographic boundaries. When financial means are limited, SNS providers should direct their investments into enhancing platform enjoyment and granting users with more control and, paradoxically, lobbying for more legalistic safeguards of user privacy.