Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Understanding phosphorus diffusion into silicon in a MOVPE environment for III-V on silicon solar cells

Dual-junction solar cells formed by a GaAsP or GaInP top cell and a silicon bottom cell seem to be attractive candidates to materialize the long sought-for integration of III?V materials on silicon for photovoltaic applications. When manufacturing a multi-junction solar cell on silicon, one of the first processes to be addressed is the development of the bottom subcell and, in particular, the formation of its emitter. In this study, we analyze, both experimentally and by simulations, the formation of the emitter as a result of phosphorus diffusion that takes place during the first stages of the epitaxial growth of the solar cell. Different conditions for the Metal-Organic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (MOVPE) process have been evaluated to understand the impact of each parameter, namely, temperature, phosphine partial pressure, time exposure and memory effects in the final diffusion profiles obtained. A model based on SSupremIV process simulator has been developed and validated against experimental profiles measured by ECV and SIMS to calculate P diffusion profiles in silicon formed in a MOVPE environment taking in consideration all these factors.

Towards a lightweight mobile semantic-based approach for enhancing interaction with smart objects

This work describes a semantic extension for a user-smart object interaction model based on the ECA paradigm (Event-Condition-Action). In this approach, smart objects publish their sensing (event) and action capabilities in the cloud and mobile devices are prepared to retrieve them and act as mediators to configure personalized behaviours for the objects. In this paper, the information handled by this interaction system has been shaped according several semantic models that, together with the integration of an embedded ontological and rule-based reasoner, are exploited in order to (i) automatically detect incompatible ECA rules configurations and to (ii) support complex ECA rules definitions and execution. This semantic extension may significantly improve the management of smart spaces populated with numerous smart objects from mobile personal devices, as it facilitates the configuration of coherent ECA rules.

Full-Wafer Roller-NIL Processes for Silicon Solar Cell Texturisation

The highest solar cell efficiencies both for c-Si and mc-Si were reached using template based texturing processes. Especially for mc-Si the benefit of a defined texture, the so called honeycomb texture, was demonstrated impressively. However, up until now, no industrially feasible process has been available to pattern the necessary etching masks with the sufficient resolution. Roller-Nanoimprint Lithography (Roller-NIL) has the potential to overcome these limitations and to allow high quality pattern transfers, even in the sub-micron regime, in continuous in-line processes. Therefore, this etch-mask patterning technique is a suitable solution to bring such elaborate features like the honeycomb texture to an industrial realization. Beyond that, this fast printing-like technology opens up new possibilities to introduce promising concepts like photonic structures into solar cells.

Dental Implants Success Prediction: Tomography Based and Data Mining Based Approach.

There are a number of factors that contribute to the success of dental implant operations. Among others, is the choice of location in which the prosthetic tooth is to be implanted. This project offers a new approach to analyse jaw tissue for the purpose of selecting suitable locations for teeth implant operations. The application developed takes as input jaw computed tomography stack of slices and trims data outside the jaw area, which is the point of interest. It then reconstructs a three dimensional model of the jaw highlighting points of interest on the reconstructed model. On another hand, data mining techniques have been utilised in order to construct a prediction model based on an information dataset of previous dental implant operations with observed stability values. The goal is to find patterns within the dataset that would help predicting the success likelihood of an implant.

Automatic segmentation of abdominal aortic aneurysm from medical images based on active shape models and texture models

A semi-automatic segmentation algorithm for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), and based on Active Shape Models (ASM) and texture models, is presented in this work. The texture information is provided by a set of four 3D magnetic resonance (MR) images, composed of axial slices of the abdomen, where lumen, wall and intraluminal thrombus (ILT) are visible. Due to the reduced number of images in the MRI training set, an ASM and a custom texture model based on border intensity statistics are constructed. For the same reason the shape is characterized from 35-computed tomography angiography (CTA) images set so the shape variations are better represented. For the evaluation, leave-one-out experiments have been held over the four MRI set.

A model to develop a platform for personalised health applications

Antecedentes Europa vive una situación insostenible. Desde el 2008 se han reducido los recursos de los gobiernos a raíz de la crisis económica. El continente Europeo envejece con ritmo constante al punto que se prevé que en 2050 habrá sólo dos trabajadores por jubilado [54]. A esta situación se le añade el aumento de la incidencia de las enfermedades crónicas, relacionadas con el envejecimiento, cuyo coste puede alcanzar el 7% del PIB de un país [51]. Es necesario un cambio de paradigma. Una nueva manera de cuidar de la salud de las personas: sustentable, eficaz y preventiva más que curativa. Algunos estudios abogan por el cuidado personalizado de la salud (pHealth). En este modelo las prácticas médicas son adaptadas e individualizadas al paciente, desde la detección de los factores de riesgo hasta la personalización de los tratamientos basada en la respuesta del individuo [81]. El cuidado personalizado de la salud está asociado a menudo al uso de las tecnologías de la información y comunicación (TICs) que, con su desarrollo exponencial, ofrecen oportunidades interesantes para la mejora de la salud. El cambio de paradigma hacia el pHealth está lentamente ocurriendo, tanto en el ámbito de la investigación como en la industria, pero todavía no de manera significativa. Existen todavía muchas barreras relacionadas a la economía, a la política y la cultura. También existen barreras puramente tecnológicas, como la falta de sistemas de información interoperables [199]. A pesar de que los aspectos de interoperabilidad están evolucionando, todavía hace falta un diseño de referencia especialmente direccionado a la implementación y el despliegue en gran escala de sistemas basados en pHealth. La presente Tesis representa un intento de organizar la disciplina de la aplicación de las TICs al cuidado personalizado de la salud en un modelo de referencia, que permita la creación de plataformas de desarrollo de software para simplificar tareas comunes de desarrollo en este dominio. Preguntas de investigación RQ1 >Es posible definir un modelo, basado en técnicas de ingeniería del software, que represente el dominio del cuidado personalizado de la salud de una forma abstracta y representativa? RQ2 >Es posible construir una plataforma de desarrollo basada en este modelo? RQ3 >Esta plataforma ayuda a los desarrolladores a crear sistemas pHealth complejos e integrados? Métodos Para la descripción del modelo se adoptó el estándar ISO/IEC/IEEE 42010por ser lo suficientemente general y abstracto para el amplio enfoque de esta tesis [25]. El modelo está definido en varias partes: un modelo conceptual, expresado a través de mapas conceptuales que representan las partes interesadas (stakeholders), los artefactos y la información compartida; y escenarios y casos de uso para la descripción de sus funcionalidades. El modelo fue desarrollado de acuerdo a la información obtenida del análisis de la literatura, incluyendo 7 informes industriales y científicos, 9 estándares, 10 artículos en conferencias, 37 artículos en revistas, 25 páginas web y 5 libros. Basándose en el modelo se definieron los requisitos para la creación de la plataforma de desarrollo, enriquecidos por otros requisitos recolectados a través de una encuesta realizada a 11 ingenieros con experiencia en la rama. Para el desarrollo de la plataforma, se adoptó la metodología de integración continua [74] que permitió ejecutar tests automáticos en un servidor y también desplegar aplicaciones en una página web. En cuanto a la metodología utilizada para la validación se adoptó un marco para la formulación de teorías en la ingeniería del software [181]. Esto requiere el desarrollo de modelos y proposiciones que han de ser validados dentro de un ámbito de investigación definido, y que sirvan para guiar al investigador en la búsqueda de la evidencia necesaria para justificarla. La validación del modelo fue desarrollada mediante una encuesta online en tres rondas con un número creciente de invitados. El cuestionario fue enviado a 134 contactos y distribuido en algunos canales públicos como listas de correo y redes sociales. El objetivo era evaluar la legibilidad del modelo, su nivel de cobertura del dominio y su potencial utilidad en el diseño de sistemas derivados. El cuestionario incluía preguntas cuantitativas de tipo Likert y campos para recolección de comentarios. La plataforma de desarrollo fue validada en dos etapas. En la primera etapa se utilizó la plataforma en un experimento a pequeña escala, que consistió en una sesión de entrenamiento de 12 horas en la que 4 desarrolladores tuvieron que desarrollar algunos casos de uso y reunirse en un grupo focal para discutir su uso. La segunda etapa se realizó durante los tests de un proyecto en gran escala llamado HeartCycle [160]. En este proyecto un equipo de diseñadores y programadores desarrollaron tres aplicaciones en el campo de las enfermedades cardio-vasculares. Una de estas aplicaciones fue testeada en un ensayo clínico con pacientes reales. Al analizar el proyecto, el equipo de desarrollo se reunió en un grupo focal para identificar las ventajas y desventajas de la plataforma y su utilidad. Resultados Por lo que concierne el modelo que describe el dominio del pHealth, la parte conceptual incluye una descripción de los roles principales y las preocupaciones de los participantes, un modelo de los artefactos TIC que se usan comúnmente y un modelo para representar los datos típicos que son necesarios formalizar e intercambiar entre sistemas basados en pHealth. El modelo funcional incluye un conjunto de 18 escenarios, repartidos en: punto de vista de la persona asistida, punto de vista del cuidador, punto de vista del desarrollador, punto de vista de los proveedores de tecnologías y punto de vista de las autoridades; y un conjunto de 52 casos de uso repartidos en 6 categorías: actividades de la persona asistida, reacciones del sistema, actividades del cuidador, \engagement" del usuario, actividades del desarrollador y actividades de despliegue. Como resultado del cuestionario de validación del modelo, un total de 65 personas revisó el modelo proporcionando su nivel de acuerdo con las dimensiones evaluadas y un total de 248 comentarios sobre cómo mejorar el modelo. Los conocimientos de los participantes variaban desde la ingeniería del software (70%) hasta las especialidades médicas (15%), con declarado interés en eHealth (24%), mHealth (16%), Ambient Assisted Living (21%), medicina personalizada (5%), sistemas basados en pHealth (15%), informática médica (10%) e ingeniería biomédica (8%) con una media de 7.25_4.99 años de experiencia en estas áreas. Los resultados de la encuesta muestran que los expertos contactados consideran el modelo fácil de leer (media de 1.89_0.79 siendo 1 el valor más favorable y 5 el peor), suficientemente abstracto (1.99_0.88) y formal (2.13_0.77), con una cobertura suficiente del dominio (2.26_0.95), útil para describir el dominio (2.02_0.7) y para generar sistemas más específicos (2_0.75). Los expertos también reportan un interés parcial en utilizar el modelo en su trabajo (2.48_0.91). Gracias a sus comentarios, el modelo fue mejorado y enriquecido con conceptos que faltaban, aunque no se pudo demonstrar su mejora en las dimensiones evaluadas, dada la composición diferente de personas en las tres rondas de evaluación. Desde el modelo, se generó una plataforma de desarrollo llamada \pHealth Patient Platform (pHPP)". La plataforma desarrollada incluye librerías, herramientas de programación y desarrollo, un tutorial y una aplicación de ejemplo. Se definieron cuatro módulos principales de la arquitectura: el Data Collection Engine, que permite abstraer las fuentes de datos como sensores o servicios externos, mapeando los datos a bases de datos u ontologías, y permitiendo interacción basada en eventos; el GUI Engine, que abstrae la interfaz de usuario en un modelo de interacción basado en mensajes; y el Rule Engine, que proporciona a los desarrolladores un medio simple para programar la lógica de la aplicación en forma de reglas \if-then". Después de que la plataforma pHPP fue utilizada durante 5 años en el proyecto HeartCycle, 5 desarrolladores fueron reunidos en un grupo de discusión para analizar y evaluar la plataforma. De estas evaluaciones se concluye que la plataforma fue diseñada para encajar las necesidades de los ingenieros que trabajan en la rama, permitiendo la separación de problemas entre las distintas especialidades, y simplificando algunas tareas de desarrollo como el manejo de datos y la interacción asíncrona. A pesar de ello, se encontraron algunos defectos a causa de la inmadurez de algunas tecnologías empleadas, y la ausencia de algunas herramientas específicas para el dominio como el procesado de datos o algunos protocolos de comunicación relacionados con la salud. Dentro del proyecto HeartCycle la plataforma fue utilizada para el desarrollo de la aplicación \Guided Exercise", un sistema TIC para la rehabilitación de pacientes que han sufrido un infarto del miocardio. El sistema fue testeado en un ensayo clínico randomizado en el cual a 55 pacientes se les dio el sistema para su uso por 21 semanas. De los resultados técnicos del ensayo se puede concluir que, a pesar de algunos errores menores prontamente corregidos durante el estudio, la plataforma es estable y fiable. Conclusiones La investigación llevada a cabo en esta Tesis y los resultados obtenidos proporcionan las respuestas a las tres preguntas de investigación que motivaron este trabajo: RQ1 Se ha desarrollado un modelo para representar el dominio de los sistemas personalizados de salud. La evaluación hecha por los expertos de la rama concluye que el modelo representa el dominio con precisión y con un balance apropiado entre abstracción y detalle. RQ2 Se ha desarrollado, con éxito, una plataforma de desarrollo basada en el modelo. RQ3 Se ha demostrado que la plataforma es capaz de ayudar a los desarrolladores en la creación de software pHealth complejos. Las ventajas de la plataforma han sido demostradas en el ámbito de un proyecto de gran escala, aunque el enfoque genérico adoptado indica que la plataforma podría ofrecer beneficios también en otros contextos. Los resultados de estas evaluaciones ofrecen indicios de que, ambos, el modelo y la plataforma serán buenos candidatos para poderse convertir en una referencia para futuros desarrollos de sistemas pHealth. ABSTRACT Background Europe is living in an unsustainable situation. The economic crisis has been reducing governments' economic resources since 2008 and threatening social and health systems, while the proportion of older people in the European population continues to increase so that it is foreseen that in 2050 there will be only two workers per retiree [54]. To this situation it should be added the rise, strongly related to age, of chronic diseases the burden of which has been estimated to be up to the 7% of a country's gross domestic product [51]. There is a need for a paradigm shift, the need for a new way of caring for people's health, shifting the focus from curing conditions that have arisen to a sustainable and effective approach with the emphasis on prevention. Some advocate the adoption of personalised health care (pHealth), a model where medical practices are tailored to the patient's unique life, from the detection of risk factors to the customization of treatments based on each individual's response [81]. Personalised health is often associated to the use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), that, with its exponential development, offers interesting opportunities for improving healthcare. The shift towards pHealth is slowly taking place, both in research and in industry, but the change is not significant yet. Many barriers still exist related to economy, politics and culture, while others are purely technological, like the lack of interoperable information systems [199]. Though interoperability aspects are evolving, there is still the need of a reference design, especially tackling implementation and large scale deployment of pHealth systems. This thesis contributes to organizing the subject of ICT systems for personalised health into a reference model that allows for the creation of software development platforms to ease common development issues in the domain. Research questions RQ1 Is it possible to define a model, based on software engineering techniques, for representing the personalised health domain in an abstract and representative way? RQ2 Is it possible to build a development platform based on this model? RQ3 Does the development platform help developers create complex integrated pHealth systems? Methods As method for describing the model, the ISO/IEC/IEEE 42010 framework [25] is adopted for its generality and high level of abstraction. The model is specified in different parts: a conceptual model, which makes use of concept maps, for representing stakeholders, artefacts and shared information, and in scenarios and use cases for the representation of the functionalities of pHealth systems. The model was derived from literature analysis, including 7 industrial and scientific reports, 9 electronic standards, 10 conference proceedings papers, 37 journal papers, 25 websites and 5 books. Based on the reference model, requirements were drawn for building the development platform enriched with a set of requirements gathered in a survey run among 11 experienced engineers. For developing the platform, the continuous integration methodology [74] was adopted which allowed to perform automatic tests on a server and also to deploy packaged releases on a web site. As a validation methodology, a theory building framework for SW engineering was adopted from [181]. The framework, chosen as a guide to find evidence for justifying the research questions, imposed the creation of theories based on models and propositions to be validated within a scope. The validation of the model was conducted as an on-line survey in three validation rounds, encompassing a growing number of participants. The survey was submitted to 134 experts of the field and on some public channels like relevant mailing lists and social networks. Its objective was to assess the model's readability, its level of coverage of the domain and its potential usefulness in the design of actual, derived systems. The questionnaires included quantitative Likert scale questions and free text inputs for comments. The development platform was validated in two scopes. As a small-scale experiment, the platform was used in a 12 hours training session where 4 developers had to perform an exercise consisting in developing a set of typical pHealth use cases At the end of the session, a focus group was held to identify benefits and drawbacks of the platform. The second validation was held as a test-case study in a large scale research project called HeartCycle the aim of which was to develop a closed-loop disease management system for heart failure and coronary heart disease patients [160]. During this project three applications were developed by a team of programmers and designers. One of these applications was tested in a clinical trial with actual patients. At the end of the project, the team was interviewed in a focus group to assess the role the platform had within the project. Results For what regards the model that describes the pHealth domain, its conceptual part includes a description of the main roles and concerns of pHealth stakeholders, a model of the ICT artefacts that are commonly adopted and a model representing the typical data that need to be formalized among pHealth systems. The functional model includes a set of 18 scenarios, divided into assisted person's view, caregiver's view, developer's view, technology and services providers' view and authority's view, and a set of 52 Use Cases grouped in 6 categories: assisted person's activities, system reactions, caregiver's activities, user engagement, developer's activities and deployer's activities. For what concerns the validation of the model, a total of 65 people participated in the online survey providing their level of agreement in all the assessed dimensions and a total of 248 comments on how to improve and complete the model. Participants' background spanned from engineering and software development (70%) to medical specialities (15%), with declared interest in the fields of eHealth (24%), mHealth (16%), Ambient Assisted Living (21%), Personalized Medicine (5%), Personal Health Systems (15%), Medical Informatics (10%) and Biomedical Engineering (8%) with an average of 7.25_4.99 years of experience in these fields. From the analysis of the answers it is possible to observe that the contacted experts considered the model easily readable (average of 1.89_0.79 being 1 the most favourable scoring and 5 the worst), sufficiently abstract (1.99_0.88) and formal (2.13_0.77) for its purpose, with a sufficient coverage of the domain (2.26_0.95), useful for describing the domain (2.02_0.7) and for generating more specific systems (2_0.75) and they reported a partial interest in using the model in their job (2.48_0.91). Thanks to their comments, the model was improved and enriched with concepts that were missing at the beginning, nonetheless it was not possible to prove an improvement among the iterations, due to the diversity of the participants in the three rounds. From the model, a development platform for the pHealth domain was generated called pHealth Patient Platform (pHPP). The platform includes a set of libraries, programming and deployment tools, a tutorial and a sample application. The main four modules of the architecture are: the Data Collection Engine, which allows abstracting sources of information like sensors or external services, mapping data to databases and ontologies, and allowing event-based interaction and filtering, the GUI Engine, which abstracts the user interface in a message-like interaction model, the Workow Engine, which allows programming the application's user interaction ows with graphical workows, and the Rule Engine, which gives developers a simple means for programming the application's logic in the form of \if-then" rules. After the 5 years experience of HeartCycle, partially programmed with pHPP, 5 developers were joined in a focus group to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the platform. The view that emerged from the training course and the focus group was that the platform is well-suited to the needs of the engineers working in the field, it allowed the separation of concerns among the different specialities and it simplified some common development tasks like data management and asynchronous interaction. Nevertheless, some deficiencies were pointed out in terms of a lack of maturity of some technological choices, and for the absence of some domain-specific tools, e.g. for data processing or for health-related communication protocols. Within HeartCycle, the platform was used to develop part of the Guided Exercise system, a composition of ICT tools for the physical rehabilitation of patients who suffered from myocardial infarction. The system developed using the platform was tested in a randomized controlled clinical trial, in which 55 patients used the system for 21 weeks. The technical results of this trial showed that the system was stable and reliable. Some minor bugs were detected, but these were promptly corrected using the platform. This shows that the platform, as well as facilitating the development task, can be successfully used to produce reliable software. Conclusions The research work carried out in developing this thesis provides responses to the three three research questions that were the motivation for the work. RQ1 A model was developed representing the domain of personalised health systems, and the assessment of experts in the field was that it represents the domain accurately, with an appropriate balance between abstraction and detail. RQ2 A development platform based on the model was successfully developed. RQ3 The platform has been shown to assist developers create complex pHealth software. This was demonstrated within the scope of one large-scale project, but the generic approach adopted provides indications that it would offer benefits more widely. The results of these evaluations provide indications that both the model and the platform are good candidates for being a reference for future pHealth developments.

Business model with discount incentive in a P2P-cloud multimedia streaming system

Today P2P faces two important challenges: design of mechanisms to encourage users' collaboration in multimedia live streaming services; design of reliable algorithms with QoS provision, to encourage the multimedia providers employ the P2P topology in commercial live streaming systems. We believe that these two challenges are tightly-related and there is much to be done with respect. This paper analyzes the effect of user behavior in a multi-tree P2P overlay and describes a business model based on monetary discount as incentive in a P2P-Cloud multimedia streaming system. We believe a discount model can boost up users' cooperation and loyalty and enhance the overall system integrity and performance. Moreover the model bounds the constraints for a provider's revenue and cost if the P2P system is leveraged on a cloud infrastructure. Our case study shows that a streaming system provider can establish or adapt his business model by applying the described bounds to achieve a good discount-revenue trade-off and promote the system to the users.

Structure Variation And Dynamics of the Nuclear Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Region in Key Gibberella Fujikuroi Complex Species

The intergenic spacer (IGS) region of the ribosomal DNA was cloned and sequenced in eight species within the Gibberella fujikuroi species complex with anamorphs in the genus Fusarium , a group that includes the most relevant toxigenic species. DNA sequence analyses revealed two categories of repeated elements: long repeats and short repeats of 125 and 8 bp, respectively. Long repeats were present in two copies and were conserved in all the species analyzed, whereas different numbers of short repeat elements were observed, leading to species-specific IGS sequences with different length. In Fusarium subglutinans and Fusarium nygamai , these differences seemed to be the result of duplication and deletion events. Here, we propose a model based on unequal crossing over that can explain these processes. The partial IGS sequence of 22 Fusarium proliferatum isolates was also obtained to study variation at the intraspecific level. The results revealed no differences in terms of number or pattern of repeated elements and detected frequent gene conversion events. These results suggest that the homogenization observed at the intraspecific level might not be achieved primarily by unequal crossing-over events but rather by processes associated with recombination such as gene conversion events.

Secure optical networks based on quantum key distribution and weakly trusted repeaters

Abstract—In this paper we explore how recent technologies can improve the security of optical networks. In particular, we study how to use quantum key distribution(QKD) in common optical network infrastructures and propose a method to overcome its distance limitations. QKD is the first technology offering information theoretic secretkey distribution that relies only on the fundamental principles of quantum physics. Point-to-point QKDdevices have reached a mature industrial state; however, these devices are severely limited in distance, since signals at the quantum level (e.g., single photons) are highly affected by the losses in the communication channel and intermediate devices. To overcome this limitation, intermediate nodes (i.e., repeaters) are used. Both quantum-regime and trusted, classical repeaters have been proposed in the QKD literature, but only the latter can be implemented in practice. As a novelty, we propose here a new QKD network model based on the use of not fully trusted intermediate nodes, referred to as weakly trusted repeaters. This approach forces the attacker to simultaneously break several paths to get access to the exchanged key, thus improving significantly the security of the network. We formalize the model using network codes and provide real scenarios that allow users to exchange secure keys over metropolitan optical networks using only passive components. Moreover, the theoretical framework allows one to extend these scenarios not only to accommodate more complex trust constraints, but also to consider robustness and resiliency constraints on the network.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Application of the agency theory for the analysis of performance-based mechanisms in road management

El WCTR es un congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte, y aunque las actas publicadas están en formato digital y sin ISSN ni ISBN, lo consideramos lo suficientemente importante como para que se considere en los indicadores. This paper develops a model based on agency theory to analyze road management systems (under the different contract forms available today) that employ a mechanism of performance indicators to establish the payment of the agent. The base assumption is that of asymmetric information between the principal (Public Authorities) and the agent (contractor) and the risk aversion of this latter. It is assumed that the principal may only measure the agent?s performance indirectly and by means of certain performance indicators that may be verified by the authorities. In this model there is presumed to be a relation between the efforts made by the agent and the performance level measured by the corresponding indicators, though it is also considered that there may be dispersion between both variables that gives rise to a certain degree of randomness in the contract. An analysis of the optimal contract has been made on the basis of this model and in accordance with a series of parameters that characterize the economic environment and the particular conditions of road infrastructure. As a result of the analysis made, it is considered that an optimal contract should generally combine a fixed component and a payment in accordance with the performance level obtained. The higher the risk aversion of the agent and the greater the marginal cost of public funds, the lower the impact of this performance-based payment. By way of conclusion, the system of performance indicators should be as broad as possible but should not overweight those indicators that encompass greater randomness in their results.

Evaluación de parámetros que influyen en el transporte de cloruros en hormigón parcialmente saturado

El deterioro del hormigón debido a la presencia del ion cloruro es causa frecuente de problemas en estructuras localizadas en ambiente marino y alta montaña. Su principal efecto consiste en la despasivación del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón y su consecuente inicio de la corrosión del mismo. El ingreso del ion cloruro al interior del hormigón, está condicionado por una serie de parámetros de origen medioambiental e intrínsecos del hormigón. En función de estos parámetros el ingreso de cloruros en el hormigón puede deberse principalmente a los siguientes mecanismos: difusión y succión capilar. El estudio y evaluación de la resistencia del hormigón frente a cloruros, se ha desarrollado principalmente en condiciones saturadas del hormigón. Lo que ha significado que parámetros de importancia no sean considerados. Debido a esto, distintos procesos que suceden en estructuras reales no han sido identificados y estudiados correctamente. En este trabajo, se diseñó un programa de investigación para evaluar los parámetros que influyen en el transporte cloruros en hormigones no saturados. Para esto se diseñaron tres dosificaciones diferentes de hormigón. En la primera se empleó únicamente cemento portland, para el resto se utilizaron adiciones minerales (humo de sílice y escoria de alto horno). El empleo de adiciones se debió a que tienen un papel importante en la durabilidad de hormigones frente a cloruros. Los hormigones fueron dosificados con una relación agua/material cementício de 0,40 para el hormigón elaborado únicamente con cemento portland y 0,45 para las mezclas con adiciones. Para evaluar las propiedades de los hormigones en estado fresco y endurecido se realizaron ensayos vigentes en las normativas. Con los resultados obtenidos se determinaron parámetros de resistencia mecánica, microestructurales, resistencia al transporte de cloruros e higroscópicos. Una vez caracterizados los hormigones, se diseñó una propuesta experimental para estudiar los principales parámetros presentes en estructuras reales con presencia de cloruros. Tanto la concentración de cloruro como las condiciones ambientales se han variado teniendo como referencia las situaciones reales que podrían producirse en ambientes de alta montaña en la zona centro de España. La propuesta experimental consistió en tratar de evaluar la capacidad de los hormigones al transporte de iones en ambientes de alta montaña con presencia de sales fundentes. Para esto se establecieron 5 fases experimentales donde los principales parámetros ambientales y la presencia de iones agresivos sufrieron variaciones. Al término de cada fase se obtuvieron perfiles de penetración de cloruros en los hormigones y se evaluó la influencia de los parámetros presentes en cada fase. Los resultados experimentales se implementaron en un modelo numérico basado en la teoría de elementos finitos, desarrollado por el grupo de investigación del Departamento de Materiales de Construcción. Para esto fue necesario realizar la calibración y validación del modelo numérico para cada hormigón. El calibrado del modelo precisa de datos químicos y microestructurales de cada hormigón, tales como: capacidad de combinación de cloruros y propiedades difusivas e higroscópicas. Para la validación del modelo numérico se realizaron simulaciones de la propuesta experimental. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con los valores experimentales. Con el objeto de poder estudiar en mayor profundidad la influencia del grado de saturación del hormigón durante la difusión de cloruros, se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental que consideró distintos grados de saturación en los hormigones. Para esto se establecieron en los hormigones cuatro grados de saturación distintos (50%, 60%, 80% y 100%, aproximadamente), posteriormente se expusieron a cloruro de sodio finamente molido. Una vez transcurrido el tiempo necesario se obtuvieron experimentalmente los perfiles de penetración de cloruros para cada grado de saturación y se calcularon los coeficientes de difusión. Los datos obtenidos durante la campaña experimental han demostrado la influencia positiva que ejercen las adiciones en las mezclas de hormigón. Sus principales ventajas son el refinamiento de la red porosa y el aumento en la capacidad de combinación de cloruros, además de mejorar sus propiedades mecánicas. La porosidad total en las mezclas no presentó grandes cambios, sin embargo, el cambio en la distribución del tamaño de poros es importante en las muestras con adiciones. En especial las fabricadas con humo de sílice. Los coeficientes de difusión y migración de cloruros para las mezclas con adiciones disminuyeron significativamente, igual que los valores de resistividad eléctrica. En los ensayos de penetración del agua bajo presión, fueron las muestras con adiciones las que mostraron las menores penetraciones. Los resultados obtenidos al final de la propuesta experimental permitieron estudiar los distintos parámetros involucrados. Se observó claramente que el proceso de difusión provoca el mayor transporte de cloruros hacia el interior del hormigón. Así mismo se comprobó que el lavado superficial y el secado de las probetas, trasladan cloruros hacia las zonas externas del hormigón. El primero debido a una baja concentración de cloruros externa, mientras que el secado provoca el movimiento de la solución de poro hacia las zonas de secado depositando cloruros en ellas. Las medidas higroscópicas permitieron determinar la existencia de dos zonas distintas en el interior del hormigón. La primera se localizó en el rango de 0-10mm, aproximadamente, en ésta se puso de manifiesto una mayor sensibilidad a los cambios experimentados en el exterior de las probetas. La segunda zona se localizó a una profundidad mayor de 10mm, aproximadamente. Se observó claramente una baja influencia de los cambios externos, siendo la difusión de cloruros el principal mecanismo de transporte presente en ella. En cuanto al estudio de la influencia del grado de saturación en la difusión de cloruros, se observó claramente una marcada diferencia entre los coeficientes de difusión de cloruro obtenidos. Para grados de saturación mayores del 80% el mecanismo de penetración de cloruros por difusión existe de forma significativa. Mientras que para valores inferiores los resultados revelaron que las vías de acceso disminuyen (poros conectado con agua) considerablemente limitando en un alto grado la penetración del agresivo. Para grados de saturación inferiores del 50% los valores del coeficiente de difusión son despreciables. The deterioration of concrete due to chloride ions is a frequent problem identified in structures located in marine and high-mountain environments. After entering the outer layer of the concrete, the chlorides tend to penetrate until they reach and then depassivate the steel bars. Subsequently, this induces the deterioration process of the reinforced concrete. This chloride penetration depends on the environmental conditions and intrinsic parameters of the concrete. Several transport mechanisms, such as diffusion, capillary suction and permeability can be present into the concrete. While recent research into the study and evaluation of concretes with chloride presence has been carried out in saturated concrete, it has not considered certain parameters that can modify this condition. Consequently, at the time of writing several processes that take place in real structures have not been identified and studied. In this work a research programme is designed to evaluate the parameters that influence chloride transport into non-saturated concrete. For this, three concrete mixes were designed by using high-early-strength Portland cement and mineral admixtures (silica fume and blast-slag furnace). The water-cement ratio was 0.40 for the concrete made solely with Portland cement and 0.45 for the concretes that used mineral admixtures as a cement replacement. A set of experimental tests were performed to evaluate the concrete properties both in fresh and hardened state. In addition, an experimental simulation was carried out under laboratory conditions in which the main objective was to assess resistance of concrete to chloride penetration under high-mountain conditions with the presence of de-icing salts. The environmental conditions and surface chloride concentration of the concrete used during the experimental simulation were chosen by considering conditions found in the high-mountain environment in central Spain. For the experimental simulation five phases were designed by varying the environmental parameters and concrete surface concentration. At the end of each phase a chloride profile was obtained with the aim of assessing the influence of the parameters on chloride transport. The experimental results were then used to calibrate and validate a numerical model based on finite element theory developed by the research team from the Construction Materials Department in a previous work. In order to carry out model calibration chemical and microstructural data for the concretes was required, such as binding capacity and the diffusive and hygroscopic properties. The experimental results were compared with the numerical simulations and provided a good fit. With the objective of studying the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion, an experimental programme was designed. This entailed four saturation degrees (50%, 60%, 80% and 100%) being established in several concrete samples. The samples were then exposed to ground sodium chloride. Once the time required was achieved, the chloride profiles and diffusion coefficients were obtained for each saturation degree. The results obtained from the experimental program revealed a positive influence of the mineral admixtures on the concretes. Their effects were reflected in the pore-network refinement and the increase of chloride binding capacity, together with the improvement of the mechanical properties of the concretes. Total porosity did not reveal any notable change, though the pore-size distribution showed a significant degree of change in the concretes with mineral admixtures, specifically the samples prepared through use of silica fume. The chloride diffusion and migration coefficient, as well as the electrical resistivity values, decreased significantly in the concretes with admixtures. In the water penetration under pressure test, the concretes with admixtures presented the lowest penetration depth. The results obtained in the experimental simulation allowed study of the main parameters involved during the chloride penetration processes in non-saturated concretes in the presence of chlorides. According to the results, the diffusion process was the transport mechanism that transferred the greatest amount of chlorides into the concrete samples. In addition, a chloride movement toward external zones of the concrete, caused by the washing of concrete surface and the drying processes, was identified. The washing occurred when the concrete surface came into contact with a low-chloride concentration solution which initiated the outward movement of chloride diffusion. The drying processes corresponded to a movement of pore solution launched by water evaporation from the outer layer. Furthermore, hygroscopic measurements made in the concrete allowed two areas with distinct behavioural patterns to be identified. The first one, located in the range of approximately 0-10mm, showed a greater degree of influence regarding the changes of the external conditions. The second, situated at depths greater than 10mm, displayed a low influence of external conditions. The main process in this area was diffusion. Study of the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion showed a clear difference among the chloride diffusion coefficients obtained. For degrees of concrete saturation higher than 80%, chloride penetration by diffusion tends to be significant. However, in the case of extent of saturation of lower than 80%, the results revealed that the access zone through which chlorides can penetrate decreased considerably. For degrees of concrete saturation lower than 50%, the chloride diffusion coefficients were negligible.

A Knowledge Model for Automatic Configuration of Traffic Messages

This paper describes a knowledge model for a configuration problem in the do-main of traffic control. The goal of this model is to help traffic engineers in the dynamic selection of a set of messages to be presented to drivers on variable message signals. This selection is done in a real-time context using data recorded by traffic detectors on motorways. The system follows an advanced knowledge-based solution that implements two abstract problem solving methods according to a model-based approach recently proposed in the knowledge engineering field. Finally, the paper presents a discussion about the advantages and drawbacks found for this problem as a consequence of the applied knowledge modeling ap-proach.

Knowledge Modelling in Multiagent Systems: The Case of the Management of a National Network

This paper presents the knowledge model of a distributed decision support system, that has been designed for the management of a national network in Ukraine. It shows how advanced Artificial Intelligence techniques (multiagent systems and knowledge modelling) have been applied to solve this real-world decision support problem: on the one hand its distributed nature, implied by different loci of decision-making at the network nodes, suggested to apply a multiagent solution; on the other, due to the complexity of problem-solving for local network administration, it was useful to apply knowledge modelling techniques, in order to structure the different knowledge types and reasoning processes involved. The paper sets out from a description of our particular management problem. Subsequently, our agent model is described, pointing out the local problem-solving and coordination knowledge models. Finally, the dynamics of the approach is illustrated by an example.