Constraints to the efficacy of risk management process in entrepreneurial companies

This paper highlights potential factors that affect the degree of efficacy of a formal risk management framework in entrepreneurial organisations. The understanding of entrepreneur’s self-schemas, entrepreneurial organisational culture and working environment is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of a risk management process. This research pointed out two main issues: i) the entrepreneurial decision making process with presence of biases and heuristics in judgement under uncertainty; and ii) the entrepreneurial organisational context that might create constraints to the implementation of a risk management framework.

Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

The role of science and technology management companies in the set-up and coordination of multi-partners scientific alliances

Mestrado em Economia e Gestão de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação

Testing the link specification in binary choice models. A semiparametric approach.

Doutoramento em Matemática.

Distributed optimization in transportation and logistics networks

Many important problems in communication networks, transportation networks, and logistics networks are solved by the minimization of cost functions. In general, these can be complex optimization problems involving many variables. However, physicists noted that in a network, a node variable (such as the amount of resources of the nodes) is connected to a set of link variables (such as the flow connecting the node), and similarly each link variable is connected to a number of (usually two) node variables. This enables one to break the problem into local components, often arriving at distributive algorithms to solve the problems. Compared with centralized algorithms, distributed algorithms have the advantages of lower computational complexity, and lower communication overhead. Since they have a faster response to local changes of the environment, they are especially useful for networks with evolving conditions. This review will cover message-passing algorithms in applications such as resource allocation, transportation networks, facility location, traffic routing, and stability of power grids.

Program Ações Locais (Local Action) and Citizenship: A Shared Management experience in the Historic Town of São Paulo City

Shared management between businesses, governments and society in the historic town of São Paulo city began concurrently with the growth of nonprofit organizations (NGOs) in the 1990s. The program Ações Locais, coordinated by the NGO Associação Viva o Centro is housed in this context and its mission is to bring together individuals, businesses and local governments for economic, social and political development as to build up the citizenship in that area. This study provides a historical background on formation of Brazilian citizenship and, from that reference, analyzes the performing citizenship in the program Ações Locais. The main conclusion of the analysis identified that the program have been consolidated, despite the enormous quotidian difficulties, especially in the social inclusion actions for the poor. The dilemma about how bring in the excluded segments of the population may indicate a new field of research and future studies.

Reliability of Tethered Swimming Evaluation in Age Group Swimmers

The aim of the present study was to examine the reliability of tethered swimming in the evaluation of age group swimmers. The sample was composed of 8 male national level swimmers with at least 4 years of experience in competitive swimming. Each swimmer performed two 30 second maximal intensity tethered swimming tests, on separate days. Individual force-time curves were registered to assess maximum force, mean force and the mean impulse of force. Both consistency and reliability were very strong, with Cronbach’s Alpha values ranging from 0.970 to 0.995. All the applied metrics presented a very high agreement between tests, with the mean impulse of force presenting the highest. These results indicate that tethered swimming can be used to evaluate age group swimmers. Furthermore, better comprehension of the swimmers ability to effectively exert force in the water can be obtained using the impulse of force. Key words: swimming, training and testing, propulsive force, front crawl.

Discrimination capacity in species distribution models depends on the representativeness of the environmental domain

Aim When faced with dichotomous events, such as the presence or absence of a species, discrimination capacity (the ability to separate the instances of presence from the instances of absence) is usually the only characteristic that is assessed in the evaluation of the performance of predictive models. Although neglected, calibration or reliability (how well the estimated probability of presence represents the observed proportion of presences) is another aspect of the performance of predictive models that provides important information. In this study, we explore how changes in the distribution of the probability of presence make discrimination capacity a context-dependent characteristic of models. For the first time,we explain the implications that ignoring the context dependence of discrimination can have in the interpretation of species distribution models.

New measures for assessing model equilibrium and prediction mismatch in species distribution models

Models based on species distributions are widely used and serve important purposes in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Their continuous predictions of environmental suitability are commonly converted into a binary classification of predicted (or potential) presences and absences, whose accuracy is then evaluated through a number of measures that have been the subject of recent reviews. We propose four additional measures that analyse observation-prediction mismatch from a different angle – namely, from the perspective of the predicted rather than the observed area – and add to the existing toolset of model evaluation methods. We explain how these measures can complete the view provided by the existing measures, allowing further insights into distribution model predictions. We also describe how they can be particularly useful when using models to forecast the spread of diseases or of invasive species and to predict modifications in species’ distributions under climate and land-use change

Effects of dry-land strength and conditioning programs in age group swimmers

Context: Even though dry-land S&C training is a common practice in swimming, there are countless uncertainties over it effects in performance of age group swimmers. Objective: To investigate the effects of dry-land S&C programs in swimming performance of age group swimmers. Participants: A total of 21 male competitive swimmers (12.7±0.7 years) were randomly assigned to the Control Group (n=7) and experimental GR1 and GR2 (n=7 for each group). Intervention: Control group performed a 10-week training period of swim training alone, GR1 followed a 6-week dry-land S&C program based on sets/repetitions plus a 4-week swim training program alone and GR2 followed a 6-week dry-land S&C program focused on explosiveness, plus a 4-week program of swim training alone. Results: For the dry-land tests a time effect was observed between week 0 and week 6 for vertical jump (p<0.01) in both experimental groups, and for the GR2 ball throwing (p<0.01), with moderate-strong effect sizes. The time*group analyses showed that for performance in 50 m, differences were significant, with the GR2 presenting higher improvements than their counterparts (F=4.156; ƿ=0.007; η2=0.316) at week 10. Conclusions: The results suggest that 6 weeks of a complementary dry-land S&C training may lead to improvements in dry-land strength. Furthermore, a 4-week adaptation period was mandatory to achieve beneficial transfer for aquatic performance. Additional benefits may occur if coaches plan the dry-land S&C training focusing on explosiveness.

An Approach to Tactical Performance Optimization in a Big Data World

The amount of data collected from an individual player during a football match has increased significantly in recent years, following technological evolution in positional tracking. However, given the short time that separates competitions, the common analysis of these data focuses on the magnitude of actions of each player, while considering either technical or physical perform- ance. This focus leads to a considerable amount of information not being taken into account in performance optimization, particularly while considering a sequence of different matches of the same team. In this presentation, we will present a tactical performance indicator that considers players’ overall positioning and their level of coordination during the match. This performance indicator will be applied in different time scales, with a particular focus on possible practical applications.

Assessing the state of Nephrops norvegicus and management measures in the Central Adriatic Sea

Nephrops norvegicus is a sedentary bottom-dwelling crustacean that represents one of the main commercial species exploited in the Adriatic Sea (Central Mediterranean). An evaluation of the status of this important resource is thus extremely important in order to manage it in a sustainable way. The evaluation of N. norvegicus is complicated by several issues, mainly: (i) the complex biology and behaviour of the species itself, (ii) the presence of subpopulations with different biological traits within the same stock unit. Relevant concentration of N.norvegicus occurs within the Pomo/Jabuka Pits area which is characterised by peculiar oceanographic and geophysical conditions. This area represented for a long time an important fishing ground shared by Italian and Croatian fleets and recently a Fishery Restricted Area (FRA) was established there. The aim of the present study is to perform for the first time an evaluation of the status of the N.norvegicus subpopulation inhabiting the Pomo/Jabuka Pits also accounting for the possible effects on it of the management measures. To achieve this, the principal fisheryindependent and fishery-dependent dataset available for the study area were firstly analysed and then treated. Data collected by the CNR-IRBIM of Ancona through both indirect (“UWTV”) and direct (trawling) methods were refined by means of a revision of the time series and related biases, and a modelling approach accounting for environmental and fishery effects, respectively. Commercial data for both Italy and Croatia were treated in order to obtain landings and length distributions for the Pomo area only; an historical reconstruction of data starting from 1970 was carried out for both countries. The obtained information was used as input for a Bayesian length-based stock assessment model developed through the CASAL software; the flexibility of this model is recommended for N.norvegicus and similar species allowing to deal with sex- and fleet-based integrated assessment method

Evaluation of a 2D multileader training system for improving sustainability and precision orchard management applications in italian apple orchards

The presented study aimed to evaluate the productive and physiological behavior of a 2D multileader apple training systems in the Italian environment both investigating the possibility to increase yield and precision crop load management resolution. Another objective was to find valuable thinning thresholds guaranteeing high yields and matching fruit market requirements. The thesis consists in three studies carried out in a Pink Lady®- Rosy Glow apple orchard trained as a planar multileader training system (double guyot). Fruiting leaders (uprights) dimension, crop load, fruit quality, flower and physiological (leaf gas exchanges and fruit growth rate) data were collected and analysed. The obtained results found that uprights present dependence among each other and as well as a mutual support during fruit development. However, individual upright fruit load and upright’s fruit load distribution on the tree (~ plant crop load) seems to define both upright independence from the other, and single upright crop load effects on the final fruit quality production. Correlations between fruit load and harvest fruit size were found and thanks to that valuable thinning thresholds, based on different vegetative parameters, were obtained. Moreover, it comes out that an upright’s fruit load random distribution presents a widening of those thinning thresholds, keeping un-altered fruit quality. For this reason, uprights resulted a partially physiologically-dependent plant unit. Therefore, if considered and managed as independent, then no major problems on final fruit quality and production occurred. This partly confirmed the possibility to shift crop load management to single upright. The finding of the presented studies together with the benefits coming from multileader planar training systems suggest a high potentiality of the 2D multileader training systems to increase apple production sustainability and profitability for Italian apple orchard, while easing the advent of automation in fruit production.

Non perturbative aspects of non equilibrium physics in two dimensional models

The present manuscript focuses on out of equilibrium physics in two dimensional models. It has the purpose of presenting some results obtained as part of out of equilibrium dynamics in its non perturbative aspects. This can be understood in two different ways: the former is related to integrability, which is non perturbative by nature; the latter is related to emergence of phenomena in the out of equilibirum dynamics of non integrable models that are not accessible by standard perturbative techniques. In the study of out of equilibirum dynamics, two different protocols are used througout this work: the bipartitioning protocol, within the Generalised Hydrodynamics (GHD) framework, and the quantum quench protocol. With GHD machinery we study the Staircase Model, highlighting how the hydrodynamic picture sheds new light into the physics of Integrable Quantum Field Theories; with quench protocols we analyse different setups where a non-perturbative description is needed and various dynamical phenomena emerge, such as the manifistation of a dynamical Gibbs effect, confinement and the emergence of Bloch oscillations preventing thermalisation.