Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

Critical Factors for Sustainable Post Natural Disaster Reconstruction : Chinese Data

While scientists continue to explore the level of climate change impact to new weather patterns and our environment in general, there have been some devastating natural disasters worldwide in the last two decades. Indeed natural disasters are becoming a major concern in our society. Yet in many previous examples, our reconstruction efforts only focused on providing short-term necessities. How to develop resilience in the long run is now a highlight for research and industry practice. This paper introduces a research project aimed at exploring the relationship between resilience building and sustainability in order to identify key factors during reconstruction efforts. From extensive literature study, the authors considered the inherent linkage between the two issues as evidenced from past research. They found that sustainability considerations can improve the level of resilience but are not currently given due attention. Reconstruction efforts need to focus on resilience factors but as part of urban development, they must also respond to the sustainability challenge. Sustainability issues in reconstruction projects need to be amplified, identified, processed, and managed properly. On-going research through empirical study aims to establish critical factors (CFs) for stakeholders in disaster prone areas to plan for and develop new building infrastructure through holistic considerations and balanced approaches to sustainability. A questionnaire survey examined a range of potential factors and the subsequent data analysis revealed six critical factors for sustainable Post Natural Disaster Reconstruction that include: considerable building materials and construction methods, good governance, multilateral coordination, appropriate land-use planning and policies, consideration of different social needs, and balanced combination of long-term and short-term needs. Findings from this study should have an influence on policy development towards Post Natural Disaster Reconstruction and help with the achievement of sustainable objectives.

Project success ideas

QUT Learning and Teaching Unit QUT Grants Workshops 2. Undertaking a Successful Project The purpose of this workshop was to assist QUT grant recipients to make connections, identify synergies and build a sense of scholarly community with each other; leverage grants outwards and possibly upwards; share factors that should be considered to undertake a successful project. Presenter: Shannon Satherley. "Initial Planning = Flexibility, Sanity & Success (or at least honourable failure) 1. Top & Tail 2. Divide and Delineate 3. Communicate Clearly & Consistently"

Let's talk about failures : why was the game for children not a success?

A significant proportion of research in the field of human-computer interaction has been devoted to game design. Yet, a multitude of good ideas and enthusiastic game design initiatives exist, where the games never see the light of day. Unfortunately, the causes of these failures remain often unexplored and unpublished. The challenges faced by researchers and practitioners are particularly complex when designing games for special target groups, such as children, or for a serious purpose. The HCI community would benefit from a discussion on these issues in order to avoid researchers and practitioners to repeat mistakes. We want to learn from projects that started with a promising idea, but failed or faced severe challenges. This workshop will be the first at CHI focusing on 'failed game projects'. In particular, workshop participants are encouraged to discuss issues that typically received little attention in publications and hereby contribute to the discussion on failures in the design, development and evaluation of games for and or with children. As a result, the community will benefit from these insights and lessons-learned, which will enhance the design of future (serious) games with/for children.

Critical success elements for the design and implementation of organisational e-learning

Organisations are engaging in e-learning as a mechanism for delivering flexible learning to meet the needs of individuals and organisations. In light of the increasing use and organisational investment in e-learning, the need for methods to evaluate the success of its design and implementation seems more important than ever. To date, developing a standard for the evaluation of e-learning appears to have eluded both academics and practitioners. The currently accepted evaluation methods for e-learning are traditional learning and development models, such as Kirkpatrick’s model (1976). Due to the technical nature of e-learning it is important to broaden the scope and consider other evaluation models or techniques, such as the DeLone and McLean Information Success Model, that may be applicable to the e-learning domain. Research into the use of e-learning courses has largely avoided considering the applicability of information systems research. Given this observation, it is reasonable to conclude that e-learning implementation decisions and practice could be overlooking useful or additional viewpoints. This research investigated how existing evaluation models apply in the context of organisational e-learning, and resulted in an Organisational E-learning success Framework, which identifies the critical elements for success in an e-learning environment. In particular this thesis highlights the critical importance of three e-learning system creation elements; system quality, information quality, and support quality. These elements were explored in depth and the nature of each element is described in detail. In addition, two further elements were identified as factors integral to the success of an e-learning system; learner preferences and change management. Overall, this research has demonstrated the need for a holistic approach to e-learning evaluation. Furthermore, it has shown that the application of both traditional training evaluation approaches and the D&M IS Success Model are appropriate to the organisational e-learning context, and when combined can provide this holistic approach. Practically, this thesis has reported the need for organisations to consider evaluation at all stages of e-learning from design through to implementation.

Unravelling the maze : Hepatitis C, psychosocial factors and access to antiviral therapy

In this paper we present an examination of the literature on the psychosocial aspects of hepatitis C (HCV), and ask what are the implications for patients and clinicians regarding access to treatment? Hepatitis C (HCV) is a blood-borne communicable disease that was identified in 1988. In Australia, an estimated 217,000 people live with HCV. The virus causes serious liver inflammation, can lead to liver cirrhosis and a small percentage of sufferers will develop hepatocellular carcinoma. Reports about the psychosocial aspects of HCV appeared from around 1994 indicating a similar set of societal responses to people with HIV; stigmatisation and discrimination. A number of calls were made for the establishment of counselling and support services to address the specific mental health needs of people with HCV. We conducted a systematic review of the literature between 2002-2012 about the psychosocial aspects of HCV and its relationship to access to treatment and identified a number of key issues that suggest the anticipated progress in this area has not been made. The majority of people with HCV already experience marginalisation, and the diagnosis of HCV further compounds their marginalisation through stigma and discrimination and complicates clinical decision-making around treatment. We conclude that the need for mental health services that are capable of addressing the complexities of the psychosocial aspects of HCV remains. Concomitantly, primary care clinicians require greater clarity and consistency about the clinical guidelines for HCV to meet the increasing expectations on them to deliver comprehensive patient management within primary care. (248 words)

Examining the influence of participant performance factors on contractor satisfaction : a structural equation model

Participant performance is critical to the success of projects. At the same time, enhancing the satisfaction of participants not only helps in problem solving but also improves their motivation and cooperation. However, previous research related to participant satisfaction is primarily concerned with clients and customers and relatively little attention has been paid to contractors. This paper investigates how the performance of project participants affects contractor project satisfaction in terms of the client's clarity of objectives (OC) and promptness of payments (PP), designer carefulness (DC), construction risk management (RM), the effectiveness their contribution (EW) and mutual respect and trust (RT). With 125 valid responses from contractors in Malaysia, a contractor satisfaction model is developed based on structural equation modelling. The results demonstrate the necessity for dividing abstract satisfaction into two dimensions, comprising economic-related satisfaction (ES) and production-related satisfaction (PS), with DC, OC, PP and RM having significant effects on ES, while DC, OC, EW and RM influence PS. In addition, the model tests the indirect effects of these performance variables on ES and PS. In particular, OC indirectly affects ES and PS through mediation of RM and DC respectively. The results also provide opportunities for improving contractor satisfaction and supplementing the contractor selection criteria for clients.

Key attributes underpinning different markup decision between public and private projects : a China study

In the construction industry, contractors have to improve the efficiency of markup decision-making to survive from fierce business competition. The effect of client type on markup decision has been aware in previous studies and contractors are advocated to take account of decision factors properly when they are confronted with different types of projects. Nevertheless, the rationales behind the inclusion of different factors in markup decision-making for different projects sustain unknown. In this study, fifty-three factors were identified after extensive literature review and interviews with professionals. The identified factors were afterwards grouped under the headings of nine attributes and compiled in a questionnaire for survey in China. Using the Hotelling’s T-square test, it is found that three attributes (i.e., project characteristic, client characteristic, and macro condition) can explain the effect of client type on contractors’ markup decision. The research findings provide useful insights into the cognition of bid pricing as well as the improvement of bidding efficiency. While the research works were situated in China, contractors in other countries could benefit from the research findings in a similar vein.

Micro-credit is not sufficient for the success of micro-enterprises at the bottom of the pyramid

This study examines the factors affecting the successful provision of micro-credit to people at the bottom of the pyramid and discusses the activities required to support entrepreneurial activities in a peri-urban African setting. The findings enable us to better understand why micro-credit, though useful, is only part of the solution, in a setting characterized by extreme resource constraints with an institutional fabric lacking the infrastructure that assists market development. We depict the crafting of new entrepreneurial activity as an ongoing process and present an emerging research agenda for future developments.

Nutrition screening and risk factors prior to chemotherapy in cancer patients 65 years and older

Background The largest proportion of cancer patients are aged 65 years and over. Increasing age is also associated with nutritional risk and multi-morbidities—factors which complicate the cancer treatment decision-making process in older patients. Objectives To determine whether malnutrition risk and Body Mass Index (BMI) are associated with key oncogeriatric variables as potential predictors of chemotherapy outcomes in geriatric oncology patients with solid tumours. Methods In this longitudinal study, geriatric oncology patients (aged ≥65 years) received a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) for baseline data collection prior to the commencement of chemotherapy treatment. Malnutrition risk was assessed using the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) and BMI was calculated using anthropometric data. Nutritional risk was compared with other variables collected as part of standard CGA. Associations were determined by chi-square tests and correlations. Results Over half of the 175 geriatric oncology patients were at risk of malnutrition (53.1%) according to MST. BMI ranged from 15.5–50.9kg/m2, with 35.4% of the cohort overweight when compared to geriatric cutoffs. Malnutrition risk was more prevalent in those who were underweight (70%) although many overweight participants presented as at risk (34%). Malnutrition risk was associated with a diagnosis of colorectal or lung cancer (p=0.001), dependence in activities of daily living (p=0.015) and impaired cognition (p=0.049). Malnutrition risk was positively associated with vulnerability to intensive cancer therapy (rho=0.16, p=0.038). Larger BMI was associated with a greater number of multi-morbidities (rho =.27, p=0.001. Conclusions Malnutrition risk is prevalent among geriatric patients undergoing chemotherapy, is more common in colorectal and lung cancer diagnoses, is associated with impaired functionality and cognition and negatively influences ability to complete planned intensive chemotherapy.

Investigating the success of operational business process management systems

Business process management systems (BPMS) belong to a class of enterprise information systems that are characterized by the dependence on explicitly modeled process logic. Through the process logic, it is relatively easy to manage explicitly the routing and allocation of work items along a business process through the system. Inspired by the DeLone and McLean framework, we theorize that these process-aware system features are important attributes of system quality, which in turn will elevate key user evaluations such as perceived usefulness, and usage satisfaction. We examine this theoretical model using data collected from four different, mostly mature BPM system projects. Our findings validate the importance of input quality as well as allocation and routing attributes as antecedents of system quality, which, in turn, determines both usefulness and satisfaction with the system. We further demonstrate how service quality and workflow dependency are significant precursors to perceived usefulness. Our results suggest the appropriateness of a multi-dimensional conception of system quality for future research, and provide important design-oriented advice for the design and configuration of BPMSs.

Factors associated with common mental disorders during the transition to adulthood : do emerging adults and ‘early starters’ differ? Findings from an Australian birth cohort study

Background: Despite increasing diversity in pathways to adulthood, choices available to young people are influenced by environmental, familial and individual factors, namely access to socioeconomic resources, family support and mental and physical health status. Young people from families with higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to pursue tertiary education and delay entry to adulthood, whereas those from low socioeconomic backgrounds are less likely to attain higher education or training, and more likely to partner and become parents early. The first group are commonly termed ‘emerging adults’ and the latter group ‘early starters’. Mental health disorders during this transition can seriously disrupt psychological, social and academic development as well as employment prospects. Depression, anxiety and most substance use disorders have early onset during adolescence and early adulthood with approximately three quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders having emerged by 24 years of age. Aims: This thesis aimed to explore the relationships between mental health, sociodemographic factors and family functioning during the transition to adulthood. Four areas were investigated: 1) The key differences between emerging adults and ‘early starters’, were examined and focused on a series of social, economic, and demographic factors as well as DSM-IV diagnoses; 2) Methodological issues associated with the measurement of depression and anxiety in young adults were explored by comparing a quantitative measure of symptoms of anxiety and depression (Achenbach’s YSR and YASR internalising scales) with DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety. 3) The association between family SEP and DSM-IV depression and anxiety was examined in relation to the different pathways to adulthood. 4) Finally, the association between pregnancy loss, abortion and miscarriage, and DSM-IV diagnoses of common psychiatric disorders was assessed in young women who reported early parenting, experiencing a pregnancy loss, or who had never been pregnant. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a large birth cohort started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. 7223 mothers and their children were assessed five times, at 6 months, 5, 14 and 21 years after birth. Over 3700 young adults, aged 18 to 23 years, were interviewed at the 21-year phase. Respondents completed an extensive series of self-reported questionnaires and a computerised structured psychiatric interview. Three outcomes were assessed at the 21-year phase. Mental health disorders diagnosed by a computerised structured psychiatric interview (CIDI-Auto), the prevalence of DSM-IV depression, anxiety and substance use disorders within the previous 12-month, during the transition (between ages of 18 and 23 years) or lifetime were examined. The primary outcome “current stage in the transition to adulthood” was developed using a measure conceptually constructed from the literature. The measure was based on important demographic markers, and these defined four independent groups: emerging adults (single with no children and living with parents), and three categories of ‘early starter’, singles (with no children or partner, living independently), those with a partner (married or cohabitating but without children) and parents. Early pregnancy loss was assessed using a measure that also defined four independent groups and was based on pregnancy outcomes in the young women This categorised the young women into those who were never pregnant, women who gave birth to a live child, and women who reported some form of pregnancy loss, either an abortion or a spontaneous miscarriage. A series of analyses were undertaken to test the study aims. Potential confounding and mediating factors were prospectively measured between the child’s birth and the 21-year phase. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of relevant outcomes, and the associations were reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Key findings: The thesis makes a number of important contributions to our understanding of the transition to adulthood, particularly in relation to the mental health consequences associated with different pathways. Firstly, findings from the thesis clearly showed that young people who parented or partnered early fared worse across most of the economic and social factors as well as the common mental disorders when compared to emerging adults. That is, young people who became early parents were also more likely to experience recent anxiety (OR=2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and depression (OR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.7) than were emerging adults after taking into account a range of confounding factors. Singles and those partnering early also had higher rates of lifetime anxiety and depression than emerging adults. Young people who partnered early, but were without children, had decreased odds of recent depression; this may be due to the protective effect of early marriage against depression. It was also found that young people who form families early had an increased risk of cigarette smoking (parents OR=3.7, 95%CI 2.9-4.8) compared to emerging adults, but not heavy alcohol (parents OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.3-0.6) or recent illicit drug use. The high rates of cigarette smoking and tobacco use disorders in ‘early starters’ were explained by common risk factors related to early adversity and lower SEP. Having a child and early marriage may well function as a ‘turning point’ for some young people, it is not clear whether this is due to a conscious decision to disengage from a previous ‘substance using’ lifestyle or simply that they no longer have the time to devote to such activities because of child caring. In relation to the methodological issues associated with assessing common mental disorders in young adults, it was found that although the Achenbach empirical internalising scales successfully predicted both later DSM-IV depression (YSR OR=2.3, 95%CI 1.7-3.1) and concurrently diagnosed depression (YASR OR=6.9, 95%CI 5.0- 9.5) and anxiety (YASR OR=5.1, 95%CI 3.8- 6.7), the scales discriminated poorly between young people with or without DSM-IV diagnosed mood disorder. Sensitivity values (the proportion of true positives) for the internalising scales were surprisingly low. Only a third of young people with current DSM-IV depression (range for each of the scales was between 34% to 42%) were correctly identified as cases by the YASR internalising scales, and only a quarter with current anxiety disorder (range of 23% to 31%) were correctly identified. Also, use of the DSM-oriented scales increased sensitivity only marginally (for depression between 2-8%, and anxiety between 2-6%) above the standard Achenbach scales. This is despite the fact that the DSM-oriented scales were originally developed to overcome the poor prediction of DSM-IV diagnoses by the Achenbach scales. The internalising scales, both standard and DSM-oriented, were much more effective at identifying young people with comorbid depression and anxiety, with OR’s 10.1 to 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. SEP is an important predictor of both an early transition to adulthood and the experience of anxiety during that time Family income during adolescence was a strong predictor of early parenting and partnering before age 24 but not early independent living. Compared to families in the upper quintile, young people from families with low income were nearly twice as likely to live with a partner and four times more likely to become parents (OR ranged from 2.6 to 4.0). This association remained after adjusting for current employment and education level. Children raised in low income families were 30% more likely to have an anxiety disorder (OR=1.3, 95%CI 0.9-1.9), but not depression, as young adults when compared to children from wealthier families. Emerging adults and ‘early starters’ from low income families did not differ in their likelihood of having a later anxiety disorder. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis) [abortion OR=3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.7 and miscarriage OR=2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.4]. Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.3- 3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95%CI 1.1- 3.1). These finding suggest that the association identified by Fergusson et al between abortion and later psychiatric disorders in young women may be due to pregnancy loss and not to abortion, per se. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis support the view that young people who parent or partner early have a greater burden of depression and anxiety when compared to emerging adults. As well, young women experiencing pregnancy loss, from either abortion or miscarriage, are more likely to experience depression and anxiety than are those who give birth to a live infant or who have never been pregnant. Depression, anxiety and substance use disorders often go unrecognised and untreated in young people; this is especially true in young people from lower SEP. Early identification of these common mental health disorders is important, as depression and anxiety experienced during the transition to adulthood have been found to seriously disrupt an individual’s social, educational and economic prospects in later life.

Factors influencing research engagement : research interest, confidence and experience in an Australian speech-language pathology workforce

Background Recent initiatives within an Australia public healthcare service have seen a focus on increasing the research capacity of their workforce. One of the key initiatives involves encouraging clinicians to be research generators rather than solely research consumers. As a result, baseline data of current research capacity are essential to determine whether initiatives encouraging clinicians to undertake research have been effective. Speech pathologists have previously been shown to be interested in conducting research within their clinical role; therefore they are well positioned to benefit from such initiatives. The present study examined the current research interest, confidence and experience of speech language pathologists (SLPs) in a public healthcare workforce, as well as factors that predicted clinician research engagement. Methods Data were collected via an online survey emailed to an estimated 330 SLPs working within Queensland, Australia. The survey consisted of 30 questions relating to current levels of interest, confidence and experience performing specific research tasks, as well as how frequently SLPs had performed these tasks in the last 5 years. Results Although 158 SLPs responded to the survey, complete data were available for only 137. Respondents were more confident and experienced with basic research tasks (e.g., finding literature) and less confident and experienced with complex research tasks (e.g., analysing and interpreting results, publishing results). For most tasks, SLPs displayed higher levels of interest in the task than confidence and experience. Research engagement was predicted by highest qualification obtained, current job classification level and overall interest in research. Conclusions Respondents generally reported levels of interest in research higher than their confidence and experience, with many respondents reporting limited experience in most research tasks. Therefore SLPs have potential to benefit from research capacity building activities to increase their research skills in order to meet organisational research engagement objectives. However, these findings must be interpreted with the caveats that a relatively low response rate occurred and participants were recruited from a single state-wide health service, and therefore may not be representative of the wider SLP workforce.

Identification of molecular genetic factors that influence migraine

Migraine is a common neurological disorder with a strong genetic basis. However, the complex nature of the disorder has meant that few genes or susceptibility loci have been identified and replicated consistently to confirm their involvement in migraine. Approaches to genetic studies of the disorder have included analysis of the rare migraine subtype, familial hemiplegic migraine with several causal genes identified for this severe subtype. However, the exact genetic contributors to the more common migraine subtypes are still to be deciphered. Genome-wide studies such as genome-wide association studies and linkage analysis as well as candidate genes studies have been employed to investigate genes involved in common migraine. Neurological, hormonal and vascular genes are all considered key factors in the pathophysiology of migraine and are a focus of many of these studies. It is clear that the influence of individual genes on the expression of this disorder will vary. Furthermore, the disorder may be dependent on gene–gene and gene–environment interactions that have not yet been considered. In addition, identifying susceptibility genes may require phenotyping methods outside of the International Classification of Headache Disorders II criteria, such as trait component analysis and latent class analysis to better define the ambit of migraine expression.

Investigating the factors influencing cyclist awareness and behaviour : an on-road study of cyclist situation awareness

Situation awareness, ones understanding of ‘what is going on’, is a critical commodity for road users. Although the concept has received much attention in the driving context, situation awareness in vulnerable road users, such as cyclists, remains unexplored. This paper presents the findings from an exploratory on-road study of cyclist situation awareness, the aim of which was to explore how cyclists develop situation awareness, what their situation awareness comprises, and what the causes of degraded cyclist situation awareness may be. Twenty participants cycled a pre-defined urban on-road study route. A range of data were collected, including verbal protocols, forward scene video and rear video, and a network analysis procedure was used to describe and assess cyclist situation awareness. The analysis produced a number of key findings regarding cyclist situation awareness, including the potential for cyclists’ awareness of other road users to be degraded due to additional situation awareness and decision making requirements that are placed on them in certain road situations. Strategies for improving cyclists’ situation awareness are discussed.