A Game-Theoretic Approach for Threats Detection and Intervention in Surveillance

Threat prevention with limited security resources is a challenging problem. An optimal strategy is to eectively predict attackers' targets (or goals) based on current available information, and use such predictions to prevent (or disrupt) their planned attacks. In this paper, we propose a game-theoretic framework to address this challenge which encompasses the following three elements. First, we design a method to analyze an attacker's types in order to determine the most plausible type of an attacker. Second, we propose an approach to predict possible targets of an attack and the course of actions that the attackers may take even when the attackers' types are ambiguous. Third, a game-theoretic based strategy is developed to determine the best protection actions for defenders (security resources).

A cluster randomised controlled trial and process evaluation of the early years DELTA parenting programme

This paper reports the results from a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) and process evaluation of the Early Years DELTA Parenting Programme; a six-week, group based intervention. The evaluation was part funded by DELTA and involved 23 primary schools and 334 parents. Results showed that intervention parents reported increased parental self-efficacy in relation to: knowledge of their child’s development and needs; self-acceptance as a good parent, and; disciplining and setting boundaries. No change was observed in the remaining outcome areas. Parent interviews indicated a high level of programme satisfaction and the main benefits reflected the outcomes measured by the RCT. This small, robust evaluation is commensurate with other similar research demonstrating the effectiveness and reach of short-term, group-based parenting programmes.

Holocene landscape intervention and plant food production strategies in island and mainland Southeast Asia

In the areas adjacent to the drowned Pleistocene continent of Sunda – present-day Mainland and Island SE Asia – the Austronesian Hypothesis of a diaspora of rice cultivators from Taiwan ∼4200 years ago has often been linked with the start of farming. Mounting evidence suggests that these developments should not be conflated and that alternative explanations should be considered, including indigenous inception of complex patterns of plant food production and early exchange of plants, animals, technology and genes. We review evidence for widespread forest disturbance in the Early Holocene which may accompany the beginnings of complex food-production. Although often insubstantial, evidence for incipient and developing management of rainforest vegetation and of developing complex relationships with plants is present, and early enough to suggest that during the Early to mid-Holocene this vast region was marked by different approaches to plant food production. The trajectory of the increasingly complex relationships between people and their food organisms was strongly locally contingent and in many cases did not result in the development of agricultural systems that were recognisable as such at the time of early European encounters. Diverse resource management economies in the Sunda and neighbouring regions appear to have accompanied rather than replaced a reliance on hunting and gathering. This, together with evidence for Early Holocene interaction between these neighbours, gives cause for us to question some authors continued adherence to a singular narrative of the Austronesian Hypothesis and the ‘Neolithisation’ of this part of the world. It also leads us to suggest that the forests of this vast region are, to an extent, a cultural artefact.

An Informant Report Behavior Diary for Measuring Temper Outbursts in an Intervention Setting

Temper outbursts are associated with several psychological disorders and comprise a high priority for intervention. However, the low frequency of outbursts presents a challenge for valid measurement. In the present study an informant report behavior diary for measuring temper outbursts was developed and its validity assessed in a case series. Caregivers of 12 individuals with the neurodevelopmental disorder Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS, in which temper outbursts are common) completed a behavior diary over 4 weeks, and a structured interview. Heart rate and movement data were recorded during a sample of the days subject to diary reporting. Individuals with PWS completed self-report ratings of negative emotion experience. Behavior diaries showed high concordance with the component behaviors and duration of temper outbursts reported in structured interviews; but tended to report a lower frequency. For outbursts reported in diaries during physiological recording, heart rate was consistently elevated above a resting state baseline; and was comparable to that recorded during high physical activity. Available self-report data demonstrated correspondence with the diaries but few self-report data were produced. The present results provide critical proof of principle data supporting the concurrent validity of the ecologically valid, resource efficient diaries, which can be exploited in future research.

SWAT-1: The effectiveness of a 'site visit' intervention on recruitment rates in a multi-centre randomised trial

Background: Recruitment rates in multi-centre randomised trials often fall below target recruitment rates, causing problems for study outcomes. The Studies Within A Trial (SWAT) Programme, established by the All-Ireland Hub for Trials Methodology Research in collaboration with the Medical Research Council Network of Hubs in the United Kingdom and others, is developing methods for evaluating aspects of trial methodology through the conduct of research within research. A recently published design for a SWAT-1 provides a protocol for evaluating the effect of a site visit by the principal investigator on recruitment in multi-centre trials.

Methods: Using the SWAT-1 design, the effect of a site visit, with the sole purpose of discussing trial recruitment, on recruitment rates in a large multicentre trial in the Republic of Ireland was evaluated. A controlled before and after intervention comparison was used, where the date of the site visit provides the time point for the intervention, and for the comparison to control sites. Site A received the intervention. Site B and Site C acted as the controls. Z-scores for proportions were calculated to determine within site recruitment differences. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to determine between site recruitment differences.

Results: Recruitment rates were increased in Site A post-intervention (17% and 14% percentage point increases at 1 and 3 months, respectively). No differences in recruitment occurred in Site B or in Site C. Comparing between site differences, at 3 months post-intervention, a statistically significant difference was detected in favour of higher recruitment in Site A (34% versus 25%; odds ratio 1.57, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.26).

Conclusions: This is the first reported example of a study in the SWAT programme.. It provides evidence that a site visit, combined with a scheduled meeting, increases recruitment in a clinical trial. Using this example, other researchers might be encouraged to consider conducting a similar study, allowing the findings of future SWAT-1s to be compared and combined, so that higher level evidence on the effect of a site visit by the principal investigator can be obtained.