A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase as predictors for breast cancer recurrence: a combined analysis of seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the ability of CA15-3 and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) to predict breast cancer recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from seven International Breast Cancer Study Group trials were combined. The primary end point was relapse-free survival (RFS) (time from randomization to first breast cancer recurrence), and analyses included 3953 patients with one or more CA15-3 and ALP measurement during their RFS period. CA15-3 was considered abnormal if >30 U/ml or >50% higher than the first value recorded; ALP was recorded as normal, abnormal, or equivocal. Cox proportional hazards models with a time-varying indicator for abnormal CA15-3 and/or ALP were utilized. RESULTS: Overall, 784 patients (20%) had a recurrence, before which 274 (35%) had one or more abnormal CA15-3 and 35 (4%) had one or more abnormal ALP. Risk of recurrence increased by 30% for patients with abnormal CA15-3 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30; P = 0.0005], and by 4% for those with abnormal ALP (HR = 1.04; P = 0.82). Recurrence risk was greatest for patients with either (HR = 2.40; P < 0.0001) and with both (HR = 4.69; P < 0.0001) biomarkers abnormal. ALP better predicted liver recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: CA15-3 was better able to predict breast cancer recurrence than ALP, but use of both biomarkers together provided a better early indicator of recurrence. Whether routine use of these biomarkers improves overall survival remains an open question.

Development, feasibility and performance of a health risk appraisal questionnaire for older persons

BACKGROUND: Health risk appraisal is a promising method for health promotion and prevention in older persons. The Health Risk Appraisal for the Elderly (HRA-E) developed in the U.S. has unique features but has not been tested outside the United States. METHODS: Based on the original HRA-E, we developed a scientifically updated and regionally adapted multilingual Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) instrument consisting of a self-administered questionnaire and software-generated feed-back reports. We evaluated the practicability and performance of the questionnaire in non-disabled community-dwelling older persons in London (U.K.) (N = 1090), Hamburg (Germany) (N = 804), and Solothurn (Switzerland) (N = 748) in a sub-sample of an international randomised controlled study. RESULTS: Over eighty percent of invited older persons returned the self-administered HRA-O questionnaire. Fair or poor self-perceived health status and older age were correlated with higher rates of non-return of the questionnaire. Older participants and those with lower educational levels reported more difficulty in completing the HRA-O questionnaire as compared to younger and higher educated persons. However, even among older participants and those with low educational level, more than 80% rated the questionnaire as easy to complete. Prevalence rates of risks for functional decline or problems were between 2% and 91% for the 19 HRA-O domains. Participants' intention to change health behaviour suggested that for some risk factors participants were in a pre-contemplation phase, having no short- or medium-term plans for change. Many participants perceived their health behaviour or preventative care uptake as optimal, despite indications of deficits according to the HRA-O based evaluation. CONCLUSION: The HRA-O questionnaire was highly accepted by a broad range of community-dwelling non-disabled persons. It identified a high number of risks and problems, and provided information on participants' intention to change health behaviour.

Nosocomial infection: A risk factor for a complicated course in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection - Results from a prospective multicenter German surveillance study

BACKGROUND: Nosocomially acquired respiratory syncytial virus infections (RSV-NI) may cause serious problems in hospitalized paediatric patients. Hitherto, prospectively collected representative data on RSV-NI from multicenter studies in Germany are limited. METHODS: The DMS RSV Ped database was designed for the prospective multicenter documentation and analysis of clinically relevant aspects of the management of inpatients with RSV-infection. The study covered six consecutive seasons (1999-2005); the surveillance took place in 14 paediatric hospitals in Germany. RESULTS: Of the 1568 prospectively documented RSV-infections, 6% (n=90) were NI and 94% (n=1478) were community acquired (CA). A significantly higher proportion in the NI group displayed additional risk factors like prematurity, chronic lung disease, mechanical ventilation (med. history), congenital heart disease, and neuromuscular impairment. Of all NI, 55% occurred in preterms (30.6% of all RSV-infections in preterms with severe chronic lung disease of prematurity were NI). Illness severity as well as the total mortality, but not the attributable mortality was significantly higher in the NI group. In the multivariate analysis, NI was significantly associated with the combined outcome 'complicated course of disease'. CONCLUSION: This is the first prospective multicenter study from Germany, which confirms the increased risk of a severe clinical course in nosocomially acquired RSV-infection. Of great concern is the high rate of (preventable) NI in preterms, in particular in those with severe chronic lung disease or with mechanical ventilation due to other reasons.

Hypothetical mortality risk associated with spiral tomography of the maxilla and mandible prior to endosseous implant treatment

Radiation dose delivered from the SCANORA radiography unit during the cross-sectional mode for dentotangential projections was determined. With regard to oral implantology, patient situations of an edentulous maxilla and mandible as well as a single tooth gap in regions 16 and 46 were simulated. Radiation doses were measured between 0.2 and 22.5 mGy to organs and tissues in the head and neck region when the complete maxilla or mandible was examined. When examining a single tooth gap, only 8% to 40% of that radiation dose was generally observed. Based on these results, the mortality risk was estimated according to a calculation model recommended by the Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. The mortality risk ranged from 31.4 x 10(-6) for 20-year-old men to 4.8 x 10(-6) for 65-year-old women when cross-sectional imaging of the complete maxilla was performed. The values decreased by 70% when a single tooth gap in the molar region of the maxilla was radiographed. The figures for the mortality risk for examinations of the complete mandible were similar to those for the complete maxilla, but the mortality risk decreased by 80% if only a single tooth gap in the molar region of the mandible was examined. Calculations according to the International Commission on Radiological Protection carried out for comparison did not reveal the decrease of the mortality risk with age and resulted in a higher risk value in comparison to the group of 35-year old individuals in calculations according to the Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations.

Hypothetical mortality risk associated with spiral computed tomography of the maxilla and mandible

In the present study, dose measurements have been conducted following examination of the maxilla and mandible with spiral computed tomography (CT). The measurements were carried out with 2 phantoms, a head and neck phantom and a full body phantom. The analysis of applied thermoluminescent dosimeters yielded radiation doses for organs and tissues in the head and neck region between 0.6 and 16.7 mGy when 40 axial slices and 120 kV/165 mAs were used as exposure parameters. The effective dose was calculated as 0.58 and 0.48 mSv in the maxilla and mandible, respectively. Tested methods for dose reduction showed a significant decrease of radiation dose from 40 to 65%. Based on these results, the mortality risk was estimated according to calculation models recommended by the Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations and by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Both models resulted in similar values. The mortality risk ranges from 46.2 x 10.6 for 20-year-old men to 11.2 x 10(-6) for 65-year-old women. Using 2 methods of dose reduction, the mortality risk decreased by approximately 50 to 60% to 19.1 x 10(-6) for 20-year-old men and 5.5 x 10(-6) for 65-year-old women. It can be concluded that a CT scan of the maxillofacial complex causes a considerable radiation dose when compared with conventional radiographic examinations. Therefore, a careful indication for this imaging technique and dose reduction methods should be considered in daily practice.

Osteoporosis case finding in the general practice: phalangeal radiographic absorptiometry with and without risk factors for osteoporosis to select postmenopausal women eligible for lumbar spine and hip densitometry

Mass screening for osteoporosis using DXA measurements at the spine and hip is presently not recommended by health authorities. Instead, risk factor questionnaires and peripheral bone measurements may facilitate the selection of women eligible for axial bone densitometry. The aim of this study was to validate a case finding strategy for postmenopausal women who would benefit most from subsequent DXA measurement by using phalangeal radiographic absorptiometry (RA) alone or in combination with risk factors in a general practice setting. The sensitivity and specificity of this strategy in detecting osteoporosis (T-score < or =2.5 SD at the spine and/or the hip) were compared with those of the current reimbursement criteria for DXA measurements in Switzerland. Four hundred and twenty-three postmenopausal women with one or more risk factors for osteoporosis were recruited by 90 primary care physicians who also performed the phalangeal RA measurements. All women underwent subsequent DXA measurement of the spine and the hip at the Osteoporosis Policlinic of the University Hospital of Berne. They were allocated to one of two groups depending on whether they matched with the Swiss reimbursement conditions for DXA measurement or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the likelihood of osteoporosis versus "no osteoporosis" and to derive ROC curves for the various strategies. Differences in the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were tested for significance. In women lacking reimbursement criteria, RA achieved a significantly larger AUC (0.81; 95% CI 0.72-0.89) than the risk factors associated with patients' age, height and weight (0.71; 95% C.I. 0.62-0.80). Furthermore, in this study, RA provided a better sensitivity and specificity in identifying women with underlying osteoporosis than the currently accepted criteria for reimbursement of DXA measurement. In the Swiss environment, RA is a valid case finding tool for patients with risk factors for osteoporosis, especially for those who do not qualify for DXA reimbursement.

Perspectives on periodontal risk factors

The development of a clinical decision tree based on knowledge about risks and reported outcomes of therapy is a necessity for successful planning and outcome of periodontal therapy. This requires a well-founded knowledge of the disease entity and a broad knowledge of how different risk conditions attribute to periodontitis. The infectious etiology, a complex immune response, and influence from a large number of co-factors are challenging conditions in clinical periodontal risk assessment. The difficult relationship between independent and dependent risk conditions paired with limited information on periodontitis prevalence adds to difficulties in periodontal risk assessment. The current information on periodontitis risk attributed to smoking habits, socio-economic conditions, general health and subjects' self-perception of health, is not comprehensive, and this contributes to limited success in periodontal risk assessment. New models for risk analysis have been advocated. Their utility for the estimation of periodontal risk assessment and prognosis should be tested. The present review addresses several of these issues associated with periodontal risk assessment.

Matched-pair analysis of endovascular versus open surgical repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in young patients at low risk

PURPOSE: To compare clinical outcomes of endovascular and open aortic repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in young patients at low risk. It was hypothesized that endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) compares favorably with open aneurysm repair (OAR) in these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-five patients aged 65 years or younger with a low perioperative surgical risk profile underwent EVAR at a single institution between April 1994 and May 2007 (23 men; mean age, 62 years+/-2.8). A sex- and risk-matched control group of 25 consecutive patients aged 65 years or younger who underwent OAR was used as a control group (23 men; mean age, 59 years+/-3.9). Patient outcomes and complications were classified according to Society of Vascular Surgery/International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery reporting standards. RESULTS: Mean follow-up times were 7.1 years+/-3.2 after EVAR and 5.9 years+/-1.8 after OAR (P=.1020). Total complication rates were 20% after EVAR and 52% after OAR (P=.0378), and all complications were mild or moderate. Mean intensive care unit times were 0.2 days+/-0.4 after EVAR and 1.1 days+/-0.4 after OAR (P<.0001) and mean lengths of hospital stay were 2.3 days+/-1.0 after EVAR and 5.0 days+/-2.1 after OAR (P<.0001). Cumulative rates of long-term patient survival did not differ between EVAR and OAR (P=.144). No AAA-related deaths or aortoiliac ruptures occurred during follow-up for EVAR and OAR. In addition, no surgical conversions were necessary in EVAR recipients. Cumulative rates of freedom from secondary procedures were not significantly different between the EVAR and OAR groups (P=.418). Within a multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis adjusted for patient age, maximum AAA diameter, and cardiac risk score, all-cause mortality rates (odds ratio [OR], 0.125; 95% CI, 0.010-1.493; P=.100) and need for secondary procedures (OR, 5.014; 95% CI, 0.325-77.410; P=.537) were not different between EVAR and OAR. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this observational study indicate that EVAR offers a favorable alternative to OAR in young patients at low risk.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.

Is adjuvant chemotherapy of benefit for postmenopausal women who receive endocrine treatment for highly endocrine-responsive, node-positive breast cancer? International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials VII and 12-93

To compare the efficacy of chemoendocrine treatment with that of endocrine treatment (ET) alone for postmenopausal women with highly endocrine responsive breast cancer. In the International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) Trials VII and 12-93, postmenopausal women with node-positive, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive or ER-negative, operable breast cancer were randomized to receive either chemotherapy or endocrine therapy or combined chemoendocrine treatment. Results were analyzed overall in the cohort of 893 patients with endocrine-responsive disease, and according to prospectively defined categories of ER, age and nodal status. STEPP analyses assessed chemotherapy effect. The median follow-up was 13 years. Adding chemotherapy reduced the relative risk of a disease-free survival event by 19% (P = 0.02) compared with ET alone. STEPP analyses showed little effect of chemotherapy for tumors with high levels of ER expression (P = 0.07), or for the cohort with one positive node (P = 0.03). Chemotherapy significantly improves disease-free survival for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer, but the magnitude of the effect is substantially attenuated if ER levels are high.

Thrombophilic risk factors in patients with cranial and spinal dural arteriovenous fistulae

OBJECTIVE: Numerous studies have reported the technical aspects and results of surgical and/or endovascular treatment of cranial dural arteriovenous fistulae (cDAVF) and spinal dural arteriovenous fistulae (sDAVF). Only a few of them have addressed the question of thrombophilic conditions, which may be relevant as pathogenetic factors or can increase the risk for venous thromboembolic events. Therefore, the objective of this study is to compare thrombophilic risk factors in patients with cDAVF and sDAVF with no history of trauma. METHODS: A total of 43 patients (25 with cDAVF and 18 with sDAVF) were included in this study. Blood samples were analyzed for G20210A mutation of the prothrombin gene and factor V Leiden mutation. In all patients, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, fibrinogen, antithrombin, protein C and S activity, von Willebrand factor antigen, ristocetin cofactor activity, D-dimer, coagulation factor VIII activity, and tissue factor pathway inhibitor were determined. Screening was performed for the occurrence of lupus antiphospholipid and cardiolipin antibodies. RESULTS: The prevalence of G20210A mutation of the prothrombin gene was significantly higher in patients with cDAVF (n = 6) compared with patients with sDAVF (n = 0; P < 0.05, Fisher's exact test). A factor V Leiden mutation was found in 3 patients with sDAVF and in 1 patient with cDAVF (P = 0.29, Fisher's exact test). No significant difference was found for other parameters, except for fibrinogen, but decreased protein C activity was more frequent in patients with cDAVF compared with patients with sDAVF (4 versus 1). Decreased protein S activity was encountered in 3 patients (2 with sDAVF and 1 with cDAVF). Cardiolipin antibodies were found in 2 patients with cDAVF but in none with sDAVF, whereas only 1 patient with sDAVF had lupus antiphospholipid antibodies. CONCLUSION: In both groups of patients with dural arteriovenous fistulae, genetic thrombophilic abnormalities occurred in a higher percentage than in the general population. The differences of the genetic abnormalities may be involved in different pathophysiological mechanism(s) in the development of these distinct neurovascular entities.

Tibial or hip BMD predict clinical fracture risk equally well: results from a prospective study in 700 elderly Swiss women

In a randomly selected cohort of Swiss community-dwelling elderly women prospectively followed up for 2.8 +/- 0.6 years, clinical fractures were assessed twice yearly. Bone mineral density (BMD) measured at tibial diaphysis (T-DIA) and tibial epiphysis (T-EPI) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was shown to be a valid alternative to lumbar spine or hip BMD in predicting fractures.