933 resultados para interest rate exposure
Resumo:
This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.
Resumo:
A human in vivo toxicokinetic model was built to allow a better understanding of the toxicokinetics of folpet fungicide and its key ring biomarkers of exposure: phthalimide (PI), phthalamic acid (PAA) and phthalic acid (PA). Both PI and the sum of ring metabolites, expressed as PA equivalents (PAeq), may be used as biomarkers of exposure. The conceptual representation of the model was based on the analysis of the time course of these biomarkers in volunteers orally and dermally exposed to folpet. In the model, compartments were also used to represent the body burden of folpet and experimentally relevant PI, PAA and PA ring metabolites in blood and in key tissues as well as in excreta, hence urinary and feces. The time evolution of these biomarkers in each compartment of the model was then mathematically described by a system of coupled differential equations. The mathematical parameters of the model were then determined from best fits to the time courses of PI and PAeq in blood and urine of five volunteers administered orally 1 mg kg(-1) and dermally 10 mg kg(-1) of folpet. In the case of oral administration, the mean elimination half-life of PI from blood (through feces, urine or metabolism) was found to be 39.9 h as compared with 28.0 h for PAeq. In the case of a dermal application, mean elimination half-life of PI and PAeq was estimated to be 34.3 and 29.3 h, respectively. The average final fractions of administered dose recovered in urine as PI over the 0-96 h period were 0.030 and 0.002%, for oral and dermal exposure, respectively. Corresponding values for PAeq were 24.5 and 1.83%, respectively. Finally, the average clearance rate of PI from blood calculated from the oral and dermal data was 0.09 ± 0.03 and 0.13 ± 0.05 ml h(-1) while the volume of distribution was 4.30 ± 1.12 and 6.05 ± 2.22 l, respectively. It was not possible to obtain the corresponding values from PAeq data owing to the lack of blood time course data.
Resumo:
A nationwide investigation was conducted in Switzerland to establish the exposure of the population by medical x rays and update the results of the 1998 survey. Both the frequency and the dose variations were studied in order to determine the change in the collective dose. The frequency study addressed 206 general practitioners (GPs), 30 hospitals, and 10 private radiology institutes. Except for the latter, the response rate was very satisfactory. The dose study relied on the assessment of the speed class of the screen-film combinations used by the GPs as well as the results of two separate studies dedicated to fluoroscopy and CT. The investigation showed that the total number of all medical x-ray examinations performed by GPs registered a 1% decrease between 1998 and 2003, and that the sensitivities of the film-screen combinations registered a shift towards higher values, leading to a reduction of the dose delivered by a GP of the order of 20%. The study indicated also that the total number of all x-ray examinations performed in hospitals increased by 4%, with a slight increase of radiographies by 1% but significant decrease of examinations involving fluoroscopy (39%), and a 70% increase for CT examinations. Concerning the doses, the investigation of a selection of examinations involving fluoroscopy showed a significant increase of the kerma-area product (KAP) per procedure. For CT the study showed an increase of the dose-length product (DLP) per procedure for skull and abdomen examinations, and a decrease for chest examination. Both changes in the frequency and the effective dose per examination led to a 20% increase in the total collective dose.
Resumo:
In the electrical industry the 50 Hz electric and magnetic fields are often higher than in the average working environment. The electric and magnetic fields can be studied by measuring or by calculatingthe fields in the environment. For example, the electric field under a 400 kV power line is 1 to 10 kV/m, and the magnetic flux density is 1 to 15 µT. Electricand magnetic fields of a power line induce a weak electric field and electric currents in the exposed body. The average current density in a human being standing under a 400 kV line is 1 to 2 mA/m2. The aim of this study is to find out thepossible effects of short term exposure to electric and magnetic fields of electricity power transmission on workers' health, in particular the cardiovascular effects. The study consists of two parts; Experiment I: influence on extrasystoles, and Experiment II: influence on heart rate. In Experiment I two groups, 26 voluntary men (Group 1) and 27 transmission-line workers (Group 2), were measured. Their electrocardiogram (ECG) was recorded with an ambulatory recorder both in and outside the field. In Group 1 the fields were 1.7 to 4.9 kV/m and 1.1 to 7.1 pT; in Group 2 they were 0.1 to 10.2 kV/m and 1.0 to 15.4 pT. In the ECG analysis the only significant observation was a decrease in the heart rate after field exposure (Group 1). The drop cannot be explained with the first measuring method. Therefore Experiment II was carried out. In Experiment II two groups were used; Group 1 (26 male volunteers) were measured in real field exposure, Group 2 (15 male volunteers) in "sham" fields. The subjects of Group 1 spent 1 h outside the field, then 1 h in the field under a 400 kV transmission line, and then again 1 h outside the field. Under the 400 kV linethe field strength varied from 3.5 to 4.3 kV/m, and from 1.4 to 6.6 pT. Group 2spent the entire test period (3 h) in a 33 kV outdoor testing station in a "sham" field. ECG, blood pressure, and electroencephalogram (EEG) were measured by ambulatory methods. Before and after the field exposure, the subjects performed some cardiovascular autonomic function tests. The analysis of the results (Experiments I and II) showed that extrasystoles or arrythmias were as frequent in the field (below 4 kV/m and 4 pT) as outside it. In Experiment II there was no decrease detected in the heart rate, and the systolic and diastolic blood pressure stayed nearly the same. No health effects were found in this study.
Resumo:
Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses for the power companies. With a reliable corrosion prediction method, the plants can be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions may be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. Growing interest to use recycled fuels creates additional demands for the prediction of corrosion potential. Models depending on corrosion theories will fail, if relations between the inputs and the output are poorly known. A prediction model based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network is able to improve its performance as the amount of data increases. The corrosion rate of a superheater material can most reliably be detected with a test done in a test combustor or in a commercial boiler. The steel samples can be located in a special, temperature-controlled probe, and exposed to the corrosive environment for a desired time. These tests give information about the average corrosion potential in that environment. Samples may also be cut from superheaters during shutdowns. The analysis ofsamples taken from probes or superheaters after exposure to corrosive environment is a demanding task: if the corrosive contaminants can be reliably analyzed, the corrosion chemistry can be determined, and an estimate of the material lifetime can be given. In cases where the reason for corrosion is not clear, the determination of the corrosion chemistry and the lifetime estimation is more demanding. In order to provide a laboratory tool for the analysis and prediction, a newapproach was chosen. During this study, the following tools were generated: · Amodel for the prediction of superheater fireside corrosion, based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network, build upon a corrosion database developed offuel and bed material analyses, and measured corrosion data. The developed model predicts superheater corrosion with high accuracy at the early stages of a project. · An adaptive corrosion analysis tool based on image analysis, constructedas an expert system. This system utilizes implementation of user-defined algorithms, which allows the development of an artificially intelligent system for thetask. According to the results of the analyses, several new rules were developed for the determination of the degree and type of corrosion. By combining these two tools, a user-friendly expert system for the prediction and analyses of superheater fireside corrosion was developed. This tool may also be used for the minimization of corrosion risks by the design of fluidized bed boilers.
Resumo:
This multicenter, observational prospective cohort study addresses the risk associated with exposure to mirtazapine during pregnancy. Pregnancy outcomes after exposure to mirtazapine were compared with 2 matched control groups: (1) exposure to any selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI, control subjects with a psychiatric condition) and (2) no exposure to medication known to be teratogenic or any antidepressant (general control subjects). Data were collected by members of the European Network of Teratology Information Services between 1995 and 2011. Observations from 357 exposed pregnancies were compared with 357 pregnancies from each control group. The rate of major birth defects between the mirtazapine and the SSRI group did not differ significantly (4.5% vs 4.2%; odds ratio [OR], 1.1; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.5-2.3; P = 0.9). A trend toward a higher rate of birth defects in the mirtazapine group compared with general control subjects (4.5% vs 1.9%; OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 0.9-6.3; P = 0.08) reached statistical significance after exclusion of chromosomal or genetic anomalies (4.1% vs 1.3%; OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.04-10.3; P = 0.03), but this difference became again nonsignificant if cases of exposure not comprising the first trimester were excluded from the analysis (3.4% vs 1.9%; OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.6-5.0; P = 0.26). The crude miscarriage rate did not differ significantly between the mirtazapine, the SSRI, and the general control groups (12.1% vs 12.0% vs 9.3%; P = 0.44). However, a higher rate of elective pregnancy termination was observed in the mirtazapine group compared with SSRI and general control subjects (7.8% vs 3.4% vs 5.6%; P = 0.03). This study did not observe a statistically significant difference in the rate of major birth defects after first-trimester exposure between mirtazapine, SSRI-exposed, and nonexposed pregnancies. A marginally higher rate of birth defects was, however, observed in the mirtazapine and SSRI groups compared with the low rate of birth defects in our general control subjects. Overall pregnancy outcome after mirtazapine exposure was similar to that of the SSRI-exposed control group.
Resumo:
Occupational hygiene practitioners typically assess the risk posed by occupational exposure by comparing exposure measurements to regulatory occupational exposure limits (OELs). In most jurisdictions, OELs are only available for exposure by the inhalation pathway. Skin notations are used to indicate substances for which dermal exposure may lead to health effects. However, these notations are either present or absent and provide no indication of acceptable levels of exposure. Furthermore, the methodology and framework for assigning skin notation differ widely across jurisdictions resulting in inconsistencies in the substances that carry notations. The UPERCUT tool was developed in response to these limitations. It helps occupational health stakeholders to assess the hazard associated with dermal exposure to chemicals. UPERCUT integrates dermal quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and toxicological data to provide users with a skin hazard index called the dermal hazard ratio (DHR) for the substance and scenario of interest. The DHR is the ratio between the estimated 'received' dose and the 'acceptable' dose. The 'received' dose is estimated using physico-chemical data and information on the exposure scenario provided by the user (body parts exposure and exposure duration), and the 'acceptable' dose is estimated using inhalation OELs and toxicological data. The uncertainty surrounding the DHR is estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Additional information on the selected substances includes intrinsic skin permeation potential of the substance and the existence of skin notations. UPERCUT is the only available tool that estimates the absorbed dose and compares this to an acceptable dose. In the absence of dermal OELs it provides a systematic and simple approach for screening dermal exposure scenarios for 1686 substances.
Resumo:
There is an increasing interest in the use of breath analysis for monitoring human physiology and exposure to toxic substances or environmental pollutants. This review focuses on the current status of the sampling procedures, collection devices and sample-enrichment methodologies used for exhaled breath-vapor analysis. We discuss the different parameters affecting each of the above steps, taking into account the requirements for breath analysis in exposure assessments and the need to analyze target compounds at sub-ppbv levels. Finally, we summarize the practical applications of exposure analysis in the past two decades
Resumo:
Bread is one of the most widely consumed foods. Its impact on human health is currently of special interest for researchers. We aimed to identify biomarkers of bread consumption by applying a nutrimetabolomic approach to a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC q-TOF-MS and multivariate analysis was applied to human urine from 155 subjects stratified by habitual bread consumption in three groups: non-consumers of bread (n = 56), white-bread consumers (n = 48) and whole-grain bread consumers (n = 51). The most differential metabolites (variable importance for projection ≥1.5) included compounds originating from cereal plant phytochemicals such as benzoxazinoids and alkylresorcinol metabolites, and compounds produced by gut microbiota (such as enterolactones, hydroxybenzoic and dihydroferulic acid metabolites). Pyrraline, riboflavin, 3-indolecarboxylic acid glucuronide, 2,8-dihydroxyquinoline glucuronide and N-α-acetylcitrulline were also tentatively identified. In order to combine multiple metabolites in a model to predict bread consumption, a stepwise logistic regression analysis was used. Receiver operating curves were constructed to evaluate the global performance of individual metabolites and their combination. The area under the curve values [AUC (95 % CI)] of combined models ranged from 77.8 % (69.1 86.4 %) to 93.7 % (89.4 98.1 %), whereas the AUC for the metabolites included in the models had weak values when they were evaluated individually: from 58.1 % (46.6 69.7 %) to 78.4 % (69.8 87.1 %). Our study showed that a daily bread intake significantly impacted on the urinary metabolome, despite being examined under uncontrolled free-living conditions. We further concluded that a combination of several biomarkers of exposure is better than a single biomarker for the predictive ability of discriminative analysis.
Resumo:
Bread is one of the most widely consumed foods. Its impact on human health is currently of special interest for researchers. We aimed to identify biomarkers of bread consumption by applying a nutrimetabolomic approach to a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC q-TOF-MS and multivariate analysis was applied to human urine from 155 subjects stratified by habitual bread consumption in three groups: non-consumers of bread (n = 56), white-bread consumers (n = 48) and whole-grain bread consumers (n = 51). The most differential metabolites (variable importance for projection ≥1.5) included compounds originating from cereal plant phytochemicals such as benzoxazinoids and alkylresorcinol metabolites, and compounds produced by gut microbiota (such as enterolactones, hydroxybenzoic and dihydroferulic acid metabolites). Pyrraline, riboflavin, 3-indolecarboxylic acid glucuronide, 2,8-dihydroxyquinoline glucuronide and N-α-acetylcitrulline were also tentatively identified. In order to combine multiple metabolites in a model to predict bread consumption, a stepwise logistic regression analysis was used. Receiver operating curves were constructed to evaluate the global performance of individual metabolites and their combination. The area under the curve values [AUC (95 % CI)] of combined models ranged from 77.8 % (69.1 86.4 %) to 93.7 % (89.4 98.1 %), whereas the AUC for the metabolites included in the models had weak values when they were evaluated individually: from 58.1 % (46.6 69.7 %) to 78.4 % (69.8 87.1 %). Our study showed that a daily bread intake significantly impacted on the urinary metabolome, despite being examined under uncontrolled free-living conditions. We further concluded that a combination of several biomarkers of exposure is better than a single biomarker for the predictive ability of discriminative analysis.
Resumo:
Gasification offers an environmentally friendly alternative for conventional combustion enabling the use of low grade and troublesome fuel such as municipal waste. While combustion converts fuel directly into thermal energy and noxious gases, gasification thermally converts fuel into gas that can be used in multiple applications. The purpose of this work is to get to know the gasification as a phenomenon and examine the kinetics of gasification. The main interest is in the reaction rates of the most important gasification reactions - water-gas, Boudouard and shift reaction. Reaction rate correlations found in the scientific articles are examined in atmospheric pressure in different temperatures.
Resumo:
Weed control is commonly performed by the inter-row mechanical weeding associated to intrarow glyphosate directed spraying, causing a risk for drift or accidental herbicide application, that can affect the crop of interest. The objective was to evaluate the response of clones C219, GG100, I144, and I224 of eucalypt (Eucalyptus grandis x E. urophylla) to glyphosate doses of 0, 18, 36, 72, 180, 360, and 720 g of acid equivalent per hectare. The clones showed different growth patterns with regard to height, leaf number, stem dry weight, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate, and relative leaf growth rate. The clones I144 and GG100 were more susceptible to glyphosate, showing the doses required to reduce dry weight by 50% of 113.4 and 119.6 g acid equivalent per hectare, respectively. The clones C219 and I224 were less susceptible to glyphosate, showing the doses required to reduce dry weight by 50% of 237.5 and 313.5 g acid equivalent per hectare, respectively. Eucalyptus clones respond differently to glyphosate exposure, so that among I224, C219, GG100, and I144, the susceptibility to the herbicide is increasing.
Resumo:
Glass is a unique material with a long history. Several glass products are used daily in our everyday life, often unnoticed. Glass can be found not only in obvious applications such as tableware, windows, and light bulbs, but also in tennis rackets, windmill turbine blades, optical devices, and medical implants. The glasses used at present as implants are inorganic silica-based melt-derived compositions mainly for hard-tissue repair as bone graft substitute in dentistry and orthopedics. The degree of glass reactivity desired varies according to implantation situation and it is vital that the ion release from any glasses used in medical applications is controlled. Understanding the in vitro dissolution rate of glasses provides a first approximation of their behavior in vivo. Specific studies concerning dissolution properties of bioactive glasses have been relatively scarce and mostly concentrated to static condition studies. The motivation behind this work was to develop a simple and accurate method for quantifying the in vitro dissolution rate of highly different types of glass compositions with interest for future clinical applications. By combining information from various experimental conditions, a better knowledge of glass dissolution and the suitability of different glasses for different medical applications can be obtained. Thus, two traditional and one novel approach were utilized in this thesis to study glass dissolution. The chemical durability of silicate glasses was tested in water and TRIS-buffered solution at static and dynamic conditions. The traditional in vitro testing with a TRISbuffered solution under static conditions works well with bioactive or with readily dissolving glasses, and it is easy to follow the ion dissolution reactions. However, in the buffered solution no marked differences between the more durable glasses were observed. The hydrolytic resistance of the glasses was studied using the standard procedure ISO 719. The relative scale given by the standard failed to provide any relevant information when bioactive glasses were studied. However, the clear differences in the hydrolytic resistance values imply that the method could be used as a rapid test to get an overall idea of the biodegradability of glasses. The standard method combined with the ion concentration and pH measurements gives a better estimate of the hydrolytic resistance because of the high silicon amount released from a glass. A sensitive on-line analysis method utilizing inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer and a flow-through micro-volume pH electrode was developed to study the initial dissolution of biocompatible glasses. This approach was found suitable for compositions within a large range of chemical durability. With this approach, the initial dissolution of all ions could be measured simultaneously and quantitatively, which gave a good overall idea of the initial dissolution rates for the individual ions and the dissolution mechanism. These types of results with glass dissolution were presented for the first time during the course of writing this thesis. Based on the initial dissolution patterns obtained with the novel approach using TRIS, the experimental glasses could be divided into four distinct categories. The initial dissolution patterns of glasses correlated well with the anticipated bioactivity. Moreover, the normalized surface-specific mass loss rates and the different in vivo models and the actual in vivo data correlated well. The results suggest that this type of approach can be used for prescreening the suitability of novel glass compositions for future clinical applications. Furthermore, the results shed light on the possible bioactivity of glasses. An additional goal in this thesis was to gain insight into the phase changes occurring during various heat treatments of glasses with three selected compositions. Engineering-type T-T-T curves for glasses 1-98 and 13-93 were stablished. The information gained is essential in manufacturing amorphous porous implants or for drawing of continuous fibers of the glasses. Although both glasses can be hot worked to amorphous products at carefully controlled conditions, 1-98 showed one magnitude greater nucleation and crystal growth rate than 13-93. Thus, 13-93 is better suited than 1-98 for working processes which require long residence times at high temperatures. It was also shown that amorphous and partially crystalline porous implants can be sintered from bioactive glass S53P4. Surface crystallization of S53P4, forming Na2O∙CaO∙2SiO2, was observed to start at 650°C. The secondary crystals of Na2Ca4(PO4)2SiO4, reported for the first time in this thesis, were detected at higher temperatures, from 850°C to 1000°C. The crystal phases formed affected the dissolution behavior of the implants in simulated body fluid. This study opens up new possibilities for using S53P4 to manufacture various structures, while tailoring their bioactivity by controlling the proportions of the different phases. The results obtained in this thesis give valuable additional information and tools to the state of the art for designing glasses with respect to future clinical applications. With the knowledge gained we can identify different dissolution patters and use this information to improve the tuning of glass compositions. In addition, the novel online analysis approach provides an excellent opportunity to further enhance our knowledge of glass behavior in simulated body conditions.
Resumo:
The objective of the present study was to evaluate and quantify fetal risks involved in the administration of cancer chemotherapy during gestation, as well as to assess the long-term effects on the exposed children. In this retrospective, cohort study, we reviewed the records of women aged 15 to 45 years with a diagnosis of malignancy or benign tumors with malignant behavior at three reference services in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from 1990 to 1997. All patients with a diagnosis of pregnancy at any time during the course of the disease were selected, regardless of whether or not they received specific medication. Fetal outcomes of 14 pregnancies with chemotherapy exposure were compared to that of 15 control pregnancies in which these drugs were not used. Long-term follow-up of the exposed children was carried out. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the groups. Continuous variables were compared by the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. We found an increased rate of prematurity (6/8 vs 2/10; RR: 3.75; CI: 1.02-13.8; P = 0.03) in the exposed group. There was a trend to an increased fetal death rate (4/12 vs 0/10; P = 0.07) in the group exposed to chemotherapy. No malformations were detected in any child, which can be related to our small sample size as well as to the fact that most exposures occurred after the first trimester of pregnancy. Other larger, controlled studies are needed to establish the actual risk related to cancer chemotherapy during pregnancy.
Resumo:
Evaluation of HIV-induced IL-2 production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and HIV-specific T helper and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses in health care workers (HCW) occupationally exposed to HIV reveals a high rate of response to HIV among non-seroconverters. IL-10 is also known to interfere with HIV infection in vitro. To evaluate the induction of IL-10 by HIV antigens in HCW occupationally exposed to HIV, 18 HCW with percutaneous injury were enrolled in this study, 9 of them exposed to HIV-contaminated blood, and 9 exposed to HIV-negative blood. PBMC were incubated on plates coated with HIV-1 antigens, and IL-10 was measured in supernatants by ELISA. Five of nine HCW exposed to HIV-contaminated blood presented HIV-induced IL-10. Two of nine HCW exposed to HIV-negative source patients also had detectable levels of HIV-induced IL-10, one of them in the sample obtained on the day of accidental exposure. There was a relationship between the type of device involved in injury and IL-10 production. Individuals exposed to hollow needles or scalpels presented HIV-induced IL-10, whereas those exposed to solid needles and to digital puncture did not, suggesting a relationship between infectious load and IL-10. Although occupational exposure to HIV leads to a low rate of seroconversion, these individuals can develop an antigen-specific immune response characterized in our study by induction of IL-10 in PBMC in vitro.