From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Achievement goals in educational contexts: A social psychology perspective

Research on achievement goals usually defines mastery goals as the desire to acquire knowledge, and performance goals as the desire to outperform (or not to underperform) others. Educational contexts are most of the time social contexts, involving various persons and groups, of various hierarchical positions, and various cultural and ideological contexts. Surprisingly, most research in the achievement goal field has been conducted at an individual level of analysis. In the present paper, we will review the social consequences and antecedents of goal endorsement. This research indicates that goals strongly affect the way one behaves with co-learners. Moreover, it suggests that more than merely individual dispositions, goals reflect the social relation students have with other persons, institutions, and with the society to which they belong. We conclude this paper by setting an agenda for future achievement goal research.

Discriminant ECOC: a heuristic method for application dependent design of error correcting output codes

We present a heuristic method for learning error correcting output codes matrices based on a hierarchical partition of the class space that maximizes a discriminative criterion. To achieve this goal, the optimal codeword separation is sacrificed in favor of a maximum class discrimination in the partitions. The creation of the hierarchical partition set is performed using a binary tree. As a result, a compact matrix with high discrimination power is obtained. Our method is validated using the UCI database and applied to a real problem, the classification of traffic sign images.

A two-level analysis of the determinants of direct democratic choices in European, immigration and foreign policy in Switzerland

This article employs a unique data set - covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration/asylum policy held between 1992 and 2006 in Switzerland - in order to examine the conditional impact of context upon utilitarian, cultural, political and cognitive determinants of individual attitudes toward international openness. Our results reveal clear patterns of cross-level interactions between individual determinants and the project-related context of the vote. Thus, although party cues and political competence have a strong impact on individuals' support for international openness, this impact is substantially mediated by the type of coalition that is operating within the party elite. Similarly, subjective utilitarian and cultural considerations influence the voters' decision in interaction with the content of the proposal submitted to the voters as well as with the framing of the voting campaign.

Hierarchy of interactive functions in father-mother-baby three-way games

In developmental research, the family has mainly been studied through dyadic interaction. Three-way interactions have received less attention, partly because of their complexity. This difficulty may be overcome by distinguishing between four hierarchically embedded functions in three-way interactions: (1) participation (inclusion of all participants), (2) organization (partners keeping to their roles), (3) focalization (sharing a common focus) and (4) affective contact (being in tune). We document this hierarchical model on a sample of 80 families observed in the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation across four different sites. Hierarchy between functions was demonstrated by means of Guttman scalability coefficient. Given the importance of the child's development in a threesome, the pertinence of this model for family assessment is discussed.

Shared decision making development in Switzerland: room for improvement!

In Switzerland there is a strong movement at a national policy level towards strengthening patient rights and patient involvement in health care decisions. Yet, there is no national programme promoting shared decision making. First decision support tools (prenatal diagnosis and screening) for the counselling process have been developed and implemented. Although Swiss doctors acknowledge that shared decision making is important, hierarchical structures and asymmetric physician-patient relationships are still prevailing. The last years have seen some promising activities regarding the training of medical students and the development of patient support programmes. Swiss direct democracy and the habit of consensual decision making and citizen involvement in general may provide a fertile ground for SDM development in the primary care setting.

Development of a two-step screening ESI-TOF-MS method for rapid determination of significant stress-induced metabolome modifications in plant leaf extracts: the wound response in Arabidopsis thaliana as a case study.

To study the stress-induced effects caused by wounding under a new perspective, a metabolomic strategy based on HPLC-MS has been devised for the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. To detect induced metabolites and precisely localise these compounds among the numerous constitutive metabolites, HPLC-MS analyses were performed in a two-step strategy. In a first step, rapid direct TOF-MS measurements of the crude leaf extract were performed with a ballistic gradient on a short LC-column. The HPLC-MS data were investigated by multivariate analysis as total mass spectra (TMS). Principal components analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) on principal coordinates were combined for data treatment. PCA and HCA demonstrated a clear clustering of plant specimens selecting the highest discriminating ions given by the complete data analysis, leading to the specific detection of discrete-induced ions (m/z values). Furthermore, pool constitution with plants of homogeneous behaviour was achieved for confirmatory analysis. In this second step, long high-resolution LC profilings on an UPLC-TOF-MS system were used on pooled samples. This allowed to precisely localise the putative biological marker induced by wounding and by specific extraction of accurate m/z values detected in the screening procedure with the TMS spectra.

Social and temporal organization in an ant colony

Ant colonies are known for their complex and efficient social organization that com-pletely lacks hierarchical structure. However, due to methodological difficulties in follow¬ing all ants of a colony, it was until now impossible to investigate the social and temporal organization of colonies. We developed a tracking system that allows tracking the posi¬tions and orientations of several hundred individually labeled ants continuously, providing for the first time quantitative long term data on all individuals of a colony. These data permit reconstructing trajectories, activity patterns and social networks of all ants in a colony and enable us to investigate ant behavior quantitatively in previously unpreceded ways. By analyzing the spatial positions and social interactions of all ants in six colonies for 41 days we show that ant colonies are organized in groups of nurses, nest patrollers and foragers. Workers of each group were highly interconnected and occupied similar spa¬tial locations in the nest. Groups strongly segregated spatially, and were characterized by unique behavioral signatures. Nurses spent most of their time on the brood. Nest patrollers frequently visited the rubbish pile, and foragers frequently visited the forag¬ing arena. In addition nurses were on average younger than nest patrollers who were, in turn, younger than foragers. We further show that workers had a preferred behav¬ioral trajectory and moved from nursing to nest patrolling, and from nest patrolling to foraging. By analyzing the activity patterns of all ants we show that only a third of all workers in a colony exhibit circadian rhythms and that these rhythms shortened by on av¬erage 42 minutes in constant darkness, thereby demonstrating the presence of a functional endogenous clock. Most rhythmic workers were foragers suggesting that rhythmicity is tightly associated with task. Nurses and nest patrollers were arrhythmic which most likely reflects plasticity of the circadian clock, as isolated workers in many species exhibit circadian rhythmicity. Altogether our results emphasize that ant colonies, despite their chaotic appearance, repose on a strong underlying social and temporal organization. - Les colonies de fourmis sont connues pour leur organisation sociale complexe et effi-cace, charactérisée par un manque absolu de structure hiérarchique. Cependant, puisqu'il est techniquement très difficile de suivre toutes les fourmis d'une colonie, il a été jusqu'à maintenant impossible d'étudier l'organisation sociale et temporelle des colonies de four-mis. Nous avons développé un système qui permet d'extraire en temps réel à partir d'images vidéo les positions et orientations de plusieurs centaines de fourmis marquées individuellement. Nous avons pu ainsi générer pour la première fois des données quanti-tatives et longitudinales relatives à des fourmis appartenant à une colonie. Ces données nous ont permis de reconstruire la trajectoire et l'activité de chaque fourmi ainsi que ses réseaux sociaux. Ceci nous a permis d'étudier de manière exhaustive et objective le com-portement de tous les individus d'une colonie. En analysant les données spatiales et les interactions sociales de toutes les fourmis de six colonies qui ont été filmées pendant 41 jours, nous montrons que les fourmis d'une même colonie se répartissent en trois groupes: nourrices, patrouilleuses et approvisionneuses. Les fourmis d'un même groupe interagis-sent fréquemment et occupent le même espace à l'intérieur du nid. L'espace propre à un groupe se recoupe très peu avec celui des autres. Chaque groupe est caractérisé par un comportement typique. Les nourrices s'affairent surtout autour du couvain. Les pa-trouilleuses font de fréquents déplacements vers le tas d'ordures, et les approvisionneuses sortent souvent du nid. Les nourrices sont en moyenne plus jeunes que les patrouilleuses qui, à leur tour, sont plus jeunes que les approvisionneuses. De plus, nous montrons que les ouvrières changent de tâche au cours de leur vie, passant de nourrice à patrouilleuse puis à approvisionneuse. En analysant l'activité de chaque fourmi, nous montrons que seulement un tiers des ouvrières d'une colonie présente des rythmes circadiens et que ces rythmes diminuent en moyenne de 42 minutes lorsqu'il y a obscurité constante, ce qui démontre ainsi la présence d'une horloge endogène. De plus, la plupart des approvi¬sionneuses ont une activité rythmique alors que les nourrices et patrouilleuses présentent une activité arythmique, ce qui suggère que la rythmicité est étroitement associée à la tâche. L'arythmie des nourrices et patrouilleuses repose probablement sur une plasticité de l'horloge endogène car des ouvrières de nombreuses espèces font preuve d'une ryth¬micité circadienne lorsqu'elles sont isolées de la colonie. Dans l'ensemble nos résultats révèlent qu'une colonie de fourmis se fonde sur une solide organisation sociale et tem¬porelle malgré son apparence chaotique.

Incentives and promotion in wage hierarchies

Most of the large firms organization schemes consist in hierarchical structures of tiers with different wage levels. Traditionally the existence of this kind of organizations has been associated to the separation of productive and managerial or supervision tasks and to differences in the skills of the workers. However, many firms now employ workers with similar skills, and then the hierarchical structure can be related to an incentive scheme to ensure that workers supply effort. The model we present investigates how firm owners should determine the optimal wage distribution in order to maximize profits.

Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

The influence of drinking pattern, at individual and aggregate levels, on alcohol-related negative consequences.

AIM: To determine the extent drinking patterns (at the individual and country level) are associated with alcohol-related consequences over and above the total alcohol the person consumes. METHODS: Hierarchical linear models were estimated based on general population surveys conducted in 18 countries participating in the GENACIS project. RESULTS: In general, the positive association between drinking pattern scores and alcohol-related consequences was found at both the individual and country levels, independent of volume of drinking. In addition, a significant interaction effect indicated that the more detrimental the country's drinking pattern, the less steep the association between the volume of drinking and its consequences. CONCLUSION: Drinking patterns have an independent impact on consequences over and above the relationship between volume and consequences.

Scale-specific sex-biased dispersal in the Valais shrew unveiled by genetic variation on the Y chromosome, autosomes, and mitochondrial DNA.

We investigated sex specificities in the evolutionary processes shaping Y chromosome, autosomes, and mitochondrial DNA patterns of genetic structure in the Valais shrew (Sorex antinorii), a mountain dwelling species with a hierarchical distribution. Both hierarchical analyses of variance and isolation-by-distance analyses revealed patterns of population structure that were not consistent across maternal, paternal, and biparentally inherited markers. Differentiation on a Y microsatellite was lower than expected from the comparison with autosomal microsatellites and mtDNA, and it was mostly due to genetic variance among populations within valleys, whereas the opposite was observed on other markers. In addition, there was no pattern of isolation by distance for the Y, whereas there was strong isolation by distance on mtDNA and autosomes. We use a hierarchical island model of coancestry dynamics to discuss the relative roles of the microevolutionary forces that may induce such patterns. We conclude that sex-biased dispersal is the most important driver of the observed genetic structure, but with an intriguing twist: it seems that dispersal is strongly male biased at large spatial scale, whereas it is mildly biased in favor of females at local scale. These results add to recent reports of scale-specific sex-biased dispersal patterns, and emphasize the usefulness of the Y chromosome in conjunction with mtDNA and autosomes to infer sex specificities.

Firm's network capability and innovation performance: evidences from China hi-tech industry

ABSTRACT : A firm's competitive advantage can arise from internal resources as well as from an interfirm network. -This dissertation investigates the competitive advantage of a firm involved in an innovation network by integrating strategic management theory and social network theory. It develops theory and provides empirical evidence that illustrates how a networked firm enables the network value and appropriates this value in an optimal way according to its strategic purpose. The four inter-related essays in this dissertation provide a framework that sheds light on the extraction of value from an innovation network by managing and designing the network in a proactive manner. The first essay reviews research in social network theory and knowledge transfer management, and identifies the crucial factors of innovation network configuration for a firm's learning performance or innovation output. The findings suggest that network structure, network relationship, and network position all impact on a firm's performance. Although the previous literature indicates that there are disagreements about the impact of dense or spare structure, as well as strong or weak ties, case evidence from Chinese software companies reveals that dense and strong connections with partners are positively associated with firms' performance. The second essay is a theoretical essay that illustrates the limitations of social network theory for explaining the source of network value and offers a new theoretical model that applies resource-based view to network environments. It suggests that network configurations, such as network structure, network relationship and network position, can be considered important network resources. In addition, this essay introduces the concept of network capability, and suggests that four types of network capabilities play an important role in unlocking the potential value of network resources and determining the distribution of network rents between partners. This essay also highlights the contingent effects of network capability on a firm's innovation output, and explains how the different impacts of network capability depend on a firm's strategic choices. This new theoretical model has been pre-tested with a case study of China software industry, which enhances the internal validity of this theory. The third essay addresses the questions of what impact network capability has on firm innovation performance and what are the antecedent factors of network capability. This essay employs a structural equation modelling methodology that uses a sample of 211 Chinese Hi-tech firms. It develops a measurement of network capability and reveals that networked firms deal with cooperation between, and coordination with partners on different levels according to their levels of network capability. The empirical results also suggests that IT maturity, the openness of culture, management system involved, and experience with network activities are antecedents of network capabilities. Furthermore, the two-group analysis of the role of international partner(s) shows that when there is a culture and norm gap between foreign partners, a firm must mobilize more resources and effort to improve its performance with respect to its innovation network. The fourth essay addresses the way in which network capabilities influence firm innovation performance. By using hierarchical multiple regression with data from Chinese Hi-tech firms, the findings suggest that there is a significant partial mediating effect of knowledge transfer on the relationships between network capabilities and innovation performance. The findings also reveal that the impacts of network capabilities divert with the environment and strategic decision the firm has made: exploration or exploitation. Network constructing capability provides a greater positive impact on and yields more contributions to innovation performance than does network operating capability in an exploration network. Network operating capability is more important than network constructing capability for innovative firms in an exploitation network. Therefore, these findings highlight that the firm can shape the innovation network proactively for better benefits, but when it does so, it should adjust its focus and change its efforts in accordance with its innovation purposes or strategic orientation.

Genetic evidence for female-biased dispersal and gene flow in a polygynous primate.

Many models of sex-biased dispersal predict that the direction of sex-bias depends upon a species' mating system. In agreement with this, almost all polygynous mammals show male-biased dispersal whereas largely monogamous birds show female-biased dispersal (FBD). The hamadryas baboon (Papio hamadryas hamadryas) is polygynous and so dispersal is predicted to be male biased, as is found in all other baboon subspecies, but there are conflicting field data showing both female and male dispersal. Using 19 autosomal genetic markers genotyped in baboons from four Saudi Arabian populations, we found strong evidence for FBD in post-dispersal adults but not, as expected, in pre-dispersal infants and young juveniles, when we compared male and female: population structure (F(st)), inbreeding (F(is)), relatedness (r), and the mean assignment index (mAIc). Furthermore, we found evidence for female-biased gene flow as population genetic structure (F(st)), was about four times higher for the paternally inherited Y, than for either autosomal markers or for maternally inherited mtDNA. These results contradict the direction of sex-bias predicted by the mating system and show that FBD has evolved recently from an ancestral state of male-biased dispersal. We suggest that the cost-benefit balance of dispersal to males and females is tightly linked to the unique hierarchical social structure of hamadryas baboons and that dispersal and social organization have coevolved.

Workers' perception of workplace bullying: a cross-cultural study

This study is one of the first studies to approach workplace bullying cross-culturally. It sought to compare employees' understanding of workplace bullying in two different world regions: Central America and Southern Europe, regarding three aspects of workplace bullying: psychological vs. physical harassment, hierarchical vs. horizontal bullying, and direct vs. indirect aggression. A convenience sample of 246 workers provided their own definition of workplace bullying through a single, open-ended question. The results showed that employees from Central America emphasized the physical component of workplace bullying more than the Southern European employees. However, similarities in the conceptualization of workplace bullying across both cultures were found as well. Both Southern European and Central American employees defined workplace bullying mainly as a hierarchical phenomenon, where the aggression took the form of direct strategies. Such differences and similarities bring to the field some positive inputs for the development and implementation of different strategies for dealing effectively with this phenomenon.