Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Rom und Jerusalem, die letzte Nationaltätsfrage

Briefe von Moses Hess

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Gamma-linolenic acid levels correlate with clinical efficacy of evening primrose oil in patients with atopic dermatitis.

INTRODUCTION Atopic dermatitis (AD) has been related to a deficiency of delta-6-desaturase, an enzyme responsible for the conversion of linoleic acid to gamma-linolenic acid (GLA). Evening primrose oil (EPO) contains high amounts of GLA. Therefore, this study investigated whether EPO supplementation results in an increase in plasma GLA and its metabolite dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid (DGLA) correlating with clinical improvement of AD, assessed by the SCORing Atopic Dermatitis (SCORAD) index. METHODS The open study included 21 patients with AD. EPO (4-6 g) was administered daily for 12 weeks. Before treatment, and 4 and 12 weeks after initiation of EPO supplementation, objective SCORAD was assessed and plasma concentrations of GLA and DGLA were determined by gas chromatography. RESULTS A significant increase in plasma GLA and DGLA levels and a decrease in the objective SCORAD were observed 4 and 12 weeks after initiation of EPO treatment. In the per-protocol population (n = 14), a significant inverse correlation between the changes in plasma GLA levels and SCORAD was found (P = 0.008). CONCLUSION The clinical disease activity under EPO treatment correlates with the individual increase in plasma GLA levels. Thus, the results of this pilot study indicate that an increase in plasma GLA might be used as predictive parameter for responsiveness of AD to EPO therapy.

Stunden der Andacht für Israliten zur Beförderung religiösen Lebens und häuslicher Gottesverehrung

bearb. von Isaak Heß

Interhemispheric cerebral blood flow balance during recovery of motor hand function after ischemic stroke - a longitudinal MRI study using arterial spin labeling perfusion

BACKGROUND Unilateral ischemic stroke disrupts the well balanced interactions within bilateral cortical networks. Restitution of interhemispheric balance is thought to contribute to post-stroke recovery. Longitudinal measurements of cerebral blood flow (CBF) changes might act as surrogate marker for this process. OBJECTIVE To quantify longitudinal CBF changes using arterial spin labeling MRI (ASL) and interhemispheric balance within the cortical sensorimotor network and to assess their relationship with motor hand function recovery. METHODS Longitudinal CBF data were acquired in 23 patients at 3 and 9 months after cortical sensorimotor stroke and in 20 healthy controls using pulsed ASL. Recovery of grip force and manual dexterity was assessed with tasks requiring power and precision grips. Voxel-based analysis was performed to identify areas of significant CBF change. Region-of-interest analyses were used to quantify the interhemispheric balance across nodes of the cortical sensorimotor network. RESULTS Dexterity was more affected, and recovered at a slower pace than grip force. In patients with successful recovery of dexterous hand function, CBF decreased over time in the contralesional supplementary motor area, paralimbic anterior cingulate cortex and superior precuneus, and interhemispheric balance returned to healthy control levels. In contrast, patients with poor recovery presented with sustained hypoperfusion in the sensorimotor cortices encompassing the ischemic tissue, and CBF remained lateralized to the contralesional hemisphere. CONCLUSIONS Sustained perfusion imbalance within the cortical sensorimotor network, as measured with task-unrelated ASL, is associated with poor recovery of dexterous hand function after stroke. CBF at rest might be used to monitor recovery and gain prognostic information.

Don Joseph Nassy Duc de Naxos

par E. Carmoly

[Über Hausverkauf]

... decretum Hanau den 2. Juli 1802 Kurfürstl. Hess. Regierung hierselbst

[Über Viehhandel]

... decretum Hanau den 4. März 1803 Kurfürstl. Hess. Regierung hierselbst

Immunologic response to the survivin-derived multi-epitope vaccine EMD640744 in patients with advanced solid tumors

PURPOSE Survivin is a member of the inhibitor-of-apoptosis family. Essential for tumor cell survival and overexpressed in most cancers, survivin is a promising target for anti-cancer immunotherapy. Immunogenicity has been demonstrated in multiple cancers. Nonetheless, few clinical trials have demonstrated survivin-vaccine-induced immune responses. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN This phase I trial was conducted to test whether vaccine EMD640744, a cocktail of five HLA class I-binding survivin peptides in Montanide(®) ISA 51 VG, promotes anti-survivin T-cell responses in patients with solid cancers. The primary objective was to compare immunologic efficacy of EMD640744 at doses of 30, 100, and 300 μg. Secondary objectives included safety, tolerability, and clinical efficacy. RESULTS In total, 49 patients who received ≥2 EMD640744 injections with available baseline- and ≥1 post-vaccination samples [immunologic-diagnostic (ID)-intention-to-treat] were analyzed by ELISpot- and peptide/MHC-multimer staining, revealing vaccine-activated peptide-specific T-cell responses in 31 patients (63 %). This cohort included the per study protocol relevant ID population for the primary objective, i.e., T-cell responses by ELISpot in 17 weeks following first vaccination, as well as subjects who discontinued the study before week 17 but showed responses to the treatment. No dose-dependent effects were observed. In the majority of patients (61 %), anti-survivin responses were detected only after vaccination, providing evidence for de novo induction. Best overall tumor response was stable disease (28 %). EMD640744 was well tolerated; local injection-site reactions constituted the most frequent adverse event. CONCLUSIONS Vaccination with EMD640744 elicited T-cell responses against survivin peptides in the majority of patients, demonstrating the immunologic efficacy of EMD640744.

Biographie des israélites de France

par [Eliacin] Carmoly

Sleepiness and performance is disproportionate in patients with non-organic hypersomnia in comparison to patients with narcolepsy and mild to moderate obstructive sleep apnoea.

BACKGROUND/AIMS Clinical differentiation between organic hypersomnia and non-organic hypersomnia (NOH) is challenging. We aimed to determine the diagnostic value of sleepiness and performance tests in patients with excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) of organic and non-organic origin. METHODS We conducted a retrospective comparison of the multiple sleep latency test (MSLT), pupillography, and the Steer Clear performance test in three patient groups complaining of EDS: 19 patients with NOH, 23 patients with narcolepsy (NAR), and 46 patients with mild to moderate obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS). RESULTS As required by the inclusion criteria, all patients had Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) scores >10. The mean sleep latency in the MSLT indicated mild objective sleepiness in NOH (8.1 ± 4.0 min) and OSAS (7.2 ± 4.1 min), but more severe sleepiness in NAR (2.5 ± 2.0 min). The difference between NAR and the other two groups was significant; the difference between NOH and OSAS was not. In the Steer Clear performance test, NOH patients performed worst (error rate = 10.4%) followed by NAR (8.0%) and OSAS patients (5.9%; p = 0.008). The difference between OSAS and the other two groups was significant, but not between NOH and NAR. The pupillary unrest index was found to be highest in NAR (11.5) followed by NOH (9.2) and OSAS (7.4; n.s.). CONCLUSION A high error rate in the Steer Clear performance test along with mild sleepiness in an objective sleepiness test (MSLT) in a patient with subjective sleepiness (ESS) is suggestive of NOH. This disproportionately high error rate in NOH may be caused by factors unrelated to sleep pressure, such as anergia, reduced attention and motivation affecting performance, but not conventional sleepiness measurements.