Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Molecular and antigenic characterisation of ribosomal phosphoprotein P0 from Babesia bovis

Babesia bovis is a tick-borne pathogen that remains an important constraint for the development of cattle industries in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Effective control can be achieved by vaccination with live attenuated phenotypes of the parasite. However, these phenotypes have a number of drawbacks, which justifies the search for new, more efficient immunogens based mainly on recombinant protein technology. In the present paper, ribosomal phosphoprotein P0 from a Brazilian isolate of B. bovis was produced and evaluated with regard to conservation and antigenicity. The protein sequence displayed high conservation between different Brazilian isolates of B. bovis and several Apicomplexa parasites such as Theileria, Neospora and Toxoplasma. IgG from cattle experimentally and naturally infected with B. bovisas well as IgG1 and IgG2 from naturally infected cattle reacted with the recombinant protein. IgG from cattle experimentally infected with Babesia bigemina cross-reacted with B. bovis recombinant P0. These characteristics suggest that P0 is a potential antigen for recombinant vaccine preparations against bovine babesiosis.

A new approach for potential drug target discovery through in silico metabolic pathway analysis using Trypanosoma cruzi genome information

The current drug options for the treatment of chronic Chagas disease have not been sufficient and high hopes have been placed on the use of genomic data from the human parasite Trypanosoma cruzi to identify new drug targets and develop appropriate treatments for both acute and chronic Chagas disease. However, the lack of a complete assembly of the genomic sequence and the presence of many predicted proteins with unknown or unsure functions has hampered our complete view of the parasite's metabolic pathways. Moreover, pinpointing new drug targets has proven to be more complex than anticipated and has revealed large holes in our understanding of metabolic pathways and their integrated regulation, not only for this parasite, but for many other similar pathogens. Using an in silicocomparative study on pathway annotation and searching for analogous and specific enzymes, we have been able to predict a considerable number of additional enzymatic functions in T. cruzi. Here we focus on the energetic pathways, such as glycolysis, the pentose phosphate shunt, the Krebs cycle and lipid metabolism. We point out many enzymes that are analogous to those of the human host, which could be potential new therapeutic targets.

Interpretation of wind components as compositional variables

The classical statistical study of the wind speed in the atmospheric surface layer is madegenerally from the analysis of the three habitual components that perform the wind data,that is, the component W-E, the component S-N and the vertical component,considering these components independent.When the goal of the study of these data is the Aeolian energy, so is when wind isstudied from an energetic point of view and the squares of wind components can beconsidered as compositional variables. To do so, each component has to be divided bythe module of the corresponding vector.In this work the theoretical analysis of the components of the wind as compositionaldata is presented and also the conclusions that can be obtained from the point of view ofthe practical applications as well as those that can be derived from the application ofthis technique in different conditions of weather

Implementation of a robust coded structured light technique for dynamic 3D measurements

This paper presents the implementation details of a coded structured light system for rapid shape acquisition of unknown surfaces. Such techniques are based on the projection of patterns onto a measuring surface and grabbing images of every projection with a camera. Analyzing the pattern deformations that appear in the images, 3D information of the surface can be calculated. The implemented technique projects a unique pattern so that it can be used to measure moving surfaces. The structure of the pattern is a grid where the color of the slits are selected using a De Bruijn sequence. Moreover, since both axis of the pattern are coded, the cross points of the grid have two codewords (which permits to reconstruct them very precisely), while pixels belonging to horizontal and vertical slits have also a codeword. Different sets of colors are used for horizontal and vertical slits, so the resulting pattern is invariant to rotation. Therefore, the alignment constraint between camera and projector considered by a lot of authors is not necessary

Biomphalaria alexandrina snails as immunogens against Schistosoma mansoni infection in mice

Despite effective chemotherapy, schistosomiasis remains the second largest public health problem in the developing world. Currently, vaccination is the new strategy for schistosomiasis control. The presence of common antigenic fractions between Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate host provides a source for the preparation of a proper vaccine. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the nucleoprotein extracted from either susceptible or resistant snails to protect against schistosomiasis. The vaccination schedule consisted of a subcutaneous injection of 50 µg protein of each antigen followed by another inoculation 15 days later. Analyses of marker enzymes for different cell organelles [succinate dehydrogenase, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), glucose-6-phosphatase, acid phosphatase and 5'-nucleotidase] were carried out. Energetic parameters (ATP, ADP, AMP, phosphate potentials, inorganic phosphate, amino acids and LDH isoenzymes) were also investigated. The work was extended to record worm and ova counts, oogram determination in the liver and intestine and the histopathological pattern of the liver. The nucleoprotein of susceptible snails showed reduction in worm and ova counts by 70.96% and 51.31%, respectively, whereas the nucleoprotein of resistant snails showed reductions of 9.67% and 16.77%, respectively. In conclusion, we found that the nucleoprotein of susceptible snails was more effective in protecting against schistosomiasis.

Synthesis and transport of creatine in the CNS: importance for cerebral functions.

J. Neurochem. (2010) 10.1111/j.1471-4159.2010.06935.x Abstract Apart of its well known function of 'energetic buffer' through the creatine/phosphocreatine/creatine kinase system allowing the regeneration of ATP, creatine has been recently suggested as a potential neuromodulator of even true neurotransmitter. Moreover, the recent discovery of primary creatine deficiency syndromes, due to deficiencies in l-arginine : glycine amidinotransferase or guanidinoacetate methyltransferase (the two enzymes allowing creatine synthesis) or in the creatine transporter, has shed new light on creatine synthesis, metabolism and transport, in particular in CNS which appears as the main tissue affected by these creatine deficiencies. Recent data suggest that creatine can cross blood-brain barrier but only with a poor efficiency, and that the brain must ensure parts of its needs in creatine by its own endogenous synthesis. Finally, the recent years have demonstrated the interest to use creatine as a neuroprotective agent in a growing number of neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's and Huntington's diseases. This article aims at reviewing the latest data on creatine metabolism and transport in the brain, in relation to creatine deficiencies and to the potential use of creatine as neuroprotective molecule. Emphasis is also given to the importance of creatine for cerebral function.

NUTRISOL: un programa informático para la evaluación nutricional comunitaria y hospitalaria de acceso libre.

We have developed the computer programme NUTRISOL, a nutritional programme destined to analysis of dietary intake by means of the food transformation to nutrient. It has been performed under Windows operative system, using Visual Basic 6.0. It is presented in a CD-Rom. We have used the Spanish CSIC Food Composition Table and domestic food measures commonly used in Spain which could be modified and updated. Diverse kind of diets and reference anthropometric data are also presented. The results may be treated using various statistical programmes. The programme contains three modules: 1) Nutritional epidemiology, which allows to create or open a data base, sample management, analyse food intake, consultation of nutrient content and exportation of data to statistical programmes. 2) Analyses of diets and recipes, creation or modification of new ones. 3) To ask different diets for prevalent pathologies. Independent tools for modifying the original tables, calculate energetic needs, recommend nutrient intake and anthropometric indexes are also offered. In conclusion, NUTRISOL Programme is an application which runs in PC computers with minimal equipment in a friendly interface, of easy use, freeware, which may be adapted to each country, and has demonstrated its usefulness and reliability in different epidemiologic studies. Furthermore, it may become an efficient instrument for clinical nutrition and health promotion.

Cardenolides in nectar may be more than a consequence of allocation to other plant parts: a phylogenetic study of Asclepias

The primary function of secondary plant metabolites is thought to be defence against herbivores. The frequent occurrence of these same noxious compounds in floral nectar, which functions primarily to attract pollinators, has been seen as paradoxical. Although these compounds may have an adaptive purpose in nectar, they may also occur as a nonadaptive consequence of chemical defence in other plant parts. If nectar chemistry reflects physiological constraints or passive leakage from other tissues, we expect that the identity and relative concentration of nectar cardenolides to be correlated with those of other plant parts; in contrast, discordant distributions of compounds in nectar and other tissues may suggest adaptive roles in nectar. We compared the concentrations and identities of cardenolides in the nectar, leaves and flowers of 12 species from a monophyletic clade of Asclepias. To measure putative toxicity of nectar cardenolides, we then examined the effects of a standard cardenolide (digoxin) on the behaviour of bumblebees, a common generalist pollinator of Asclepias. We found that the average cardenolide concentrations in nectar, leaves and flowers of the 12 Asclepias species were positively correlated as predicted by nonadaptive hypotheses. However, significant differences in the identities and concentrations of individual cardenolides between nectar and leaves suggest that the production or allocation of cardenolides may be independently regulated at each plant part. In addition, cardenolide concentrations in leaves and nectar exhibited no phylogenetic signal. Surprisingly, bumblebees did not demonstrate an aversion to digoxin-rich nectar, which may indicate that nectar cardenolides have little effect on pollination. Although the idea that discordant patterns of secondary metabolites across tissue types may signal adaptive functions is attractive, there is evidence to suggest constraint contributes to nectar secondary chemistry. Further work testing the ecological impacts of such patterns will be critical in determining the functional significance of nectar cardenolides

NO rebinding to myoglobin: a reactive molecular dynamics study.

The rebinding of NO to myoglobin after photolysis is studied using the 'reactive molecular dynamics' method. In this approach the energy of the system is evaluated on two potential energy surfaces that include the heme-ligand interactions which change between liganded and unliganded myoglobin. This makes it possible to take into account in a simple way, the high dimensionality of the transition seam connecting the reactant and product states. The dynamics of the dissociated NO molecules are examined, and the geometrical and energetic properties of the transition seam are studied. Analysis of the frequency of recrossing shows that the height of the effective rebinding barrier is dependent on the time after photodissociation. This effect is due mainly to protein relaxation and may contribute to the experimentally observed non-exponential rebinding rate of NO, as has been suggested previously.

Paid employment and the changing system of gender relations: a cross-national comparison

Equality with men in the world of paid work has been a major feminist objective. Given that work in the `public' sphere has historically been shaped on the assumption that the `worker' will be male, then national employment systems which facilitate masculine employment patterns (i.e. full-time work and unbroken employment careers) might be expected to be more likely to generate gender equality. This paper compares women's employment in France (where `masculine' careers for women are common) and Britain (where part-time work and broken employment careers are more likely) at the macro, meso (occupational), and micro (individual) levels. The two occupations studied are finance and pharmacy. The evidence presented suggests that there are considerable similarities between women in the two countries at the occupational and individual level, despite national variations. In the light of this evidence, structural and individual explanations of women's employment behaviour are examined, and the continuing significance of structural constraint on the patterning of gender relations is emphasised.

Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

Evolutionary simulations to detect functional lineage-specific genes.

MOTIVATION: Supporting the functionality of recent duplicate gene copies is usually difficult, owing to high sequence similarity between duplicate counterparts and shallow phylogenies, which hamper both the statistical and experimental inference. RESULTS: We developed an integrated evolutionary approach to identify functional duplicate gene copies and other lineage-specific genes. By repeatedly simulating neutral evolution, our method estimates the probability that an ORF was selectively conserved and is therefore likely to represent a bona fide coding region. In parallel, our method tests whether the accumulation of non-synonymous substitutions reveals signatures of selective constraint. We show that our approach has high power to identify functional lineage-specific genes using simulated and real data. For example, a coding region of average length (approximately 1400 bp), restricted to hominoids, can be predicted to be functional in approximately 94-100% of cases. Notably, the method may support functionality for instances where classical selection tests based on the ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous substitutions fail to reveal signatures of selection. Our method is available as an automated tool, ReEVOLVER, which will also be useful to systematically detect functional lineage-specific genes of closely related species on a large scale. AVAILABILITY: ReEVOLVER is available at http://www.unil.ch/cig/page7858.html.

Assessing the viability of power-supply systems: a tentative protocol

This Technical Report presents a tentative protocol used to assess the viability of powersupply systems. The viability of power-supply systems can be assessed by looking at the production factors (e.g. paid labor, power capacity, fossil-fuels) – needed for the system to operate and maintain itself – in relation to the internal constraints set by the energetic metabolism of societies. In fact, by using this protocol it becomes possible to link assessments of technical coefficients performed at the level of the power-supply systems with assessments of benchmark values performed at the societal level throughout the relevant different sectors. In particular, the example provided here in the case of France for the year 2009 makes it possible to see that in fact nuclear energy is not viable in terms of labor requirements (both direct and indirect inputs) as well as in terms of requirements of power capacity, especially when including reprocessing operations.

Presidents and parties in regional politics: Italy and Spain compared

This article examines the relationship between political parties and regional presidents in Italy and Spain, adopting a comparative case study approach based on extensive archival analysis and in-depth interviews with regional politicians. The findings confirm a strong pattern of growing presidentialism at regional level, regardless of whether there are formal mechanisms for direct election, and regardless of the partisan composition of regional government. Regional presidents tend to exert their growing power through a personalised control of regional party organisations, rather than governing past parties in a direct appeal to the electorate. Nevertheless, parties can still present a significant constraint on regional presidents, so successful regional presidents tend to maintain a mediating form of leadership and fully exploit the opportunities for party patronage to build up their support and smooth governing tensions. An autonomist drive helps presidents hold together disparate coalitions or loose parties at regional level, but their lack of internal coherence presents major problems when it comes to political succession.