Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Asymmetric dynamic price competition with uncertainty

We consider a dynamic setting-price duopoly model in which a dominant (leader) firm moves first and a subordinate (follower) firm moves second. We suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We analyse the effect of the production costs uncertainty on the profits of the firms, for different values of the intercept demand parameters.

Dynamic stability metrics for the container loading problem

The Container Loading Problem (CLP) literature has traditionally evaluated the dynamic stability of cargo by applying two metrics to box arrangements: the mean number of boxes supporting the items excluding those placed directly on the floor (M1) and the percentage of boxes with insufficient lateral support (M2). However, these metrics, that aim to be proxies for cargo stability during transportation, fail to translate real-world cargo conditions of dynamic stability. In this paper two new performance indicators are proposed to evaluate the dynamic stability of cargo arrangements: the number of fallen boxes (NFB) and the number of boxes within the Damage Boundary Curve fragility test (NB_DBC). Using 1500 solutions for well-known problem instances found in the literature, these new performance indicators are evaluated using a physics simulation tool (StableCargo), replacing the real-world transportation by a truck with a simulation of the dynamic behaviour of container loading arrangements. Two new dynamic stability metrics that can be integrated within any container loading algorithm are also proposed. The metrics are analytical models of the proposed stability performance indicators, computed by multiple linear regression. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient was used as an evaluation parameter for the performance of the models. The extensive computational results show that the proposed metrics are better proxies for dynamic stability in the CLP than the previous widely used metrics.

Organising interoperability information on highly dynamic and heterogeneous environments

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Focal Malignant Liver Lesions: Diagnosis by Dynamic Incremental CT, Early Phase

The purpose of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic incremental bolus-enhanced conventional CT (DICT) with intravenous contrast administration, early phase, in the diagnosis of malignancy of focal liver lesions. A total of 122 lesions were selected in 74 patients considering the following criteria: lesion diameter 10 mm or more, number of lesions less than six per study, except in multiple angiomatosis and the existence of a valid criteria of definitive diagnosis. Lesions were categorized into seven levels of diagnostic confidence of malignancy compared with the definitive diagnosis for acquisition of a receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the technique. Forty-six and 70 lesions were correctly diagnosed as malignant and benign, respectively; there were 2 false-positive and 4 false-negative diagnoses of malignancy and the sensitivity and specificity obtained were 92 and 97%. The DICT early phase was confirmed as a highly accurate method in the characterization and diagnosis of malignancy of focal liver lesions, requiring an optimal technical performance and judicious analysis of existing semiological data.

Muscarinic antibodies and heart rate responses to dynamic exercise and to the Valsalva maneuver in chronic chagasic patients

We have studied the cardiac chronotropic responses to the Valsalva maneuver and to dynamic exercise of twenty chronic chagasic patients with normal left ventricular function and no segmental wall abnormalities by two-dimensional echocardiogram. The absolute increase in heart rate of the patients (Δ = 21.5 ± 10 bpm, M±SD) during the maneuver was significantly diminished when compared to controls (Δ = 31.30 ± 70, M±SD, p = 0.03). The minimum heart rate (58.24 ± 8.90 vs. 62.80 ± 10, p = 0.68) and the absolute decrease in heart rate at the end of the maneuver (Δ = 38.30 ± 13 vs. Δ = 31.47 ± 17, p = 0.10) were not different from controls. The initial heart rate acceleration during dynamic exercise (Δ = 12 ± 7.55 vs. Δ = 19 ± 7.27, M±SD, p = 0.01) was also diminished, but the heart rate recovery during the first ten seconds was more prominent in the sero-positive patients (Median: 14, Interquartile range: (9.75-17.50 vs. 5(0-8.75, p = 0.001). The serum levels of muscarinic cardiac auto-antibodies were significantly higher in the chagasic patients (Median: 34.58, Interquartile Range: 17-46.5, Optical Density) than in controls (Median: 0, Interquartile Range: 0-22.25, p = 0.001) and correlated significantly and directly (r = 0.68, p = 0.002) with early heart rate recovery during dynamic exercise. The results of this investigation indirectly suggest that, the cardiac muscarinic auto-antibodies may have positive agonist effects on parasympathetic heart rate control of chagasic patients.

Fiscal decentralisation and economic theory

There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.

Web competitive intelligence methodology

Master’s Degree Dissertation

Sustainability of systems interoperability in dynamic business networks

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Evaluating Dynamic Signage for Emergency Evacuation using an Immersive Video Environment

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Patterns in financial markets: Dynamic time warping

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Men’s purchase intention of shampoo: a model based on the theory of planned behavior and self-concept

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Long-term behaviour of railway transitions under dynamic loading application to soft soil sites

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Civil