Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: a dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.

Natural ventilation assessment in typical open an semi-open urban environments under various wind directions

Semi-open street roofs protect pedestrians from intense sunshine and rains. Their effects on natural ventilation of urban canopy layers (UCL) are less understood. This paper investigates two idealized urban models consisting of 4(2×2) or 16(4×4) buildings under a neutral atmospheric condition with parallel (0°) or non-parallel (15°,30°,45°) approaching wind. The aspect ratio (building height (H) / street width (W)) is 1 and building width is B=3H. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were first validated by experimental data, confirming that standard k-ε model predicted airflow velocity better than RNG k-ε model, realizable k–ε model and Reynolds stress model. Three ventilation indices were numerically analyzed for ventilation assessment, including flow rates across street roofs and openings to show the mechanisms of air exchange, age of air to display how long external air reaches a place after entering UCL, and purging flow rate to quantify the net UCL ventilation capacity induced by mean flows and turbulence. Five semi-open roof types are studied: Walls being hung above street roofs (coverage ratio λa=100%) at z=1.5H, 1.2H, 1.1H ('Hung1.5H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.1H' types); Walls partly covering street roofs (λa=80%) at z=H ('Partly-covered' type); Walls fully covering street roofs (λa=100%) at z=H ('Fully-covered' type).They basically obtain worse UCL ventilation than open street roof type due to the decreased roof ventilation. 'Hung1.1H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.5H' types are better designs than 'Fully-covered' and 'Partly-covered' types. Greater urban size contains larger UCL volume and requires longer time to ventilate. The methodologies and ventilation indices are confirmed effective to quantify UCL ventilation.

The role of context in forming young learners' attitudes and motivation to learning French

Despite the wealth of valuable information that has been generated by motivation studies to date, there are certain limitations in the common approaches. Quantitative and psychometric approaches to motivation research that have dominated in recent decades provided epiphenomenal descriptions of learner motivation within different contexts. However, these approaches assume homogeneity within a given group and often mask the variation between learners within the same, and different, contexts. Although these studies have provided empirical data to form and validate theoretical constructs, they have failed to recognise learners as individual ‘people’ that interact with their context. Learning context has become increasingly explicit in motivation studies, (see Coleman et al. 2007 and Housen et al. 2011), however it is generally considered as a background variable which is pre-existing and external to the individual. Stemming from the recent ‘social turn’ (Block 2003) in SLA research from a more cognitive-linguistic perspective to a more context-specific view of language learning, there has been an upsurge in demand for a greater focus on the ‘person in context’ in motivation research (Ushioda 2011). This paper reports on the findings of a longitudinal study of young English learners of French as they transition from primary to secondary school. Over 12 months, the study employed a mixed-method approach in order to gain an in-depth understanding of how the learners’ context influenced attitudes to language learning. The questionnaire results show that whilst the learners displayed some consistent and stable motivational traits over the 12 months, there were significant differences for learners within different contexts in terms of their attitudes to the language classroom and their levels of self-confidence. A subsequent examination of the qualitative focus group data provided an insight into how and why these attitudes were formed and emphasised the dynamic and complex interplay between learners and their context.

Timing and depositional environments of a Middle Pleistocene glaciation of northeast England: New evidence from Warren House Gill, County Durham

At various times during the Quaternary, north-eastern England was a zone of confluence between dynamic ice lobes sourced from the Pennines, northern Scotland, the Cheviots, and Scandinavia. The region thus has some of the most complex exposures of Middle to Late Pleistocene sediments in Britain, with both interglacial and glacial sediments deposited in terrestrial and marine settings. We investigated sedimentary sequences exposed on the coastline of County Durham at Warren House Gill, and present a new model of British and Fennoscandian Ice Sheet interaction in the North Sea Basin during the Middle Pleistocene. The stratigraphy at Warren House Gill consists of a lower diamicton and upper estuarine sediments, both part of the Warren House Formation. They are separated from the overlying Weichselian Blackhall and Horden tills by a substantial unconformity. The lower diamicton of the Warren House Formation is re-interpreted here as an MIS 8 to 12 glaciomarine deposit containing ice-rafted lithics from north-eastern Scotland and the northeast North Sea, and is renamed the ‘Ash Gill Member’. It is dated by lithological comparison to the Easington Raised Beach, Middle Pleistocene Amino Acid Racemisation values, and indirectly by optically stimulated luminescence. The overlying shallow subaqueous sediments were deposited in an estuarine environment by suspension settling and bottom current activity. They are named the ‘Whitesides Member’, and form the uppermost member of the Warren House Formation. During glaciation, ice-rafted material was deposited in a marine embayment. There is no evidence of a grounded, onshore Scandinavian ice sheet in County Durham during MIS 6, which has long been held as the accepted stratigraphy. This has major implications for the currently accepted British Quaternary Stratigraphy. Combined with recent work on the Middle Pleistocene North Sea Drift from Norfolk, which is now suggested to have been deposited by a Scottish ice sheet, the presence of a Scandinavian ice sheet in eastern England at any time during the Quaternary is becoming increasingly doubtful.

Dynamic Devensian ice flow in NE England: a sedimentological reconstruction

This study reconstructs the depositional environments that accompanied both ice advance and ice retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet in NE England during the Last Glacial Maximum, and proposes three regional ice-flow phases. The Late Devensian (29–22 cal. ka BP) Tyne Gap Ice Stream initially deposited the Blackhall Till Formation during shelf-edge glaciation (Phase I). This subglacial traction till comprises several related facies, including stratified and laminated diamictons, tectonites, and sand and gravel beds deposited both in subglacial canals and in proglacial streams. Eventually, stagnation of the Tyne Gap Ice Stream led to ice-marginal sedimentation in County Durham (Phase II). During the Dimlington Stadial (21 cal. ka BP), the North Sea Lobe advanced towards the coastline of N Norfolk. This resulted initially in sandur deposition (widespread, tabular sand and gravel; the Peterlee Sand and Gravel Formation; Phase II) and ultimately in deposition of the Horden Till Formation (Phase III), a massive subglacial till. As the North Sea Lobe overrode previous formations, it thrusted and stacked sediments in County Durham, and dammed proglacial lakes between the east-coast ice, the Pennine uplands and the remaining Pennine ice. The North Sea Lobe retreated after Heinrich Event 1 (16 ka). This study highlights the complexity of ice flow during the Late Devensian glaciation of NE England, with changing environmental and oceanic conditions forcing a mobile and sensitive ice sheet.

Cognitive and environmental factors influencing the process of spatial knowledge acquisition within virtual reality environments

As the fidelity of virtual environments (VE) continues to increase, the possibility of using them as training platforms is becoming increasingly realistic for a variety of application domains, including military and emergency personnel training. In the past, there was much debate on whether the acquisition and subsequent transfer of spatial knowledge from VEs to the real world is possible, or whether the differences in medium during training would essentially be an obstacle to truly learning geometric space. In this paper, the authors present various cognitive and environmental factors that not only contribute to this process, but also interact with each other to a certain degree, leading to a variable exposure time requirement in order for the process of spatial knowledge acquisition (SKA) to occur. The cognitive factors that the authors discuss include a variety of individual user differences such as: knowledge and experience; cognitive gender differences; aptitude and spatial orientation skill; and finally, cognitive styles. Environmental factors discussed include: Size, Spatial layout complexity and landmark distribution. It may seem obvious that since every individual's brain is unique - not only through experience, but also through genetic predisposition that a one size fits all approach to training would be illogical. Furthermore, considering that various cognitive differences may further emerge when a certain stimulus is present (e.g. complex environmental space), it would make even more sense to understand how these factors can impact spatial memory, and to try to adapt the training session by providing visual/auditory cues as well as by changing the exposure time requirements for each individual. The impact of this research domain is important to VE training in general, however within service and military domains, guaranteeing appropriate spatial training is critical in order to ensure that disorientation does not occur in a life or death scenario.

Student perceptions of iPads as mobile learning devices for fieldwork

This paper reports findings from six field courses about student’s perceptions of iPads as mobile learning devices for fieldwork. Data were collected through surveys and focus groups. The key findings suggest that the multi-tool nature of the iPads and their portability were the main strengths. Students had some concerns over the safety of the iPads in adverse weather and rugged environments, though most of these concerns were eliminated after using the devices with protective cases. Reduced connectivity was found to be one of the main challenges for mobile learning. Finally, students and practitioners views of why they used the mobile devices for fieldwork did not align.

Reducing defects through organizational learning within a Housing Association environment

Housing Associations (HAs) contribute circa 20% of the UK’s housing supply. HAs are however under increasing pressure as a result of funding cuts and rent reductions. Due to the increased pressure, a number of processes are currently being reviewed by HAs, especially how they manage and learn from defects. Learning from defects is considered a useful approach to achieving defect reduction within the UK housebuilding industry. This paper contributes to our understanding of how HAs learn from defects by undertaking an initial round table discussion with key HA stakeholders as part of an ongoing collaborative research project with the National House Building Council (NHBC) to better understand how house builders and HAs learn from defects to reduce their prevalence. The initial discussion shows that defect information runs through a number of groups, both internal and external of a HA during both the defects management process and organizational learning (OL) process. Furthermore, HAs are reliant on capturing and recording defect data as the foundation for the OL process. During the OL process defect data analysis is the primary enabler to recognizing a need for a change to organizational routines. When a need for change has been recognized, new options are typically pursued to design out defects via updates to a HAs Employer’s Requirements. Proposed solutions are selected by a review board and committed to organizational routine. After implementing a change, both structured and unstructured feedback is sought to establish the change’s success. The findings from the HA discussion demonstrates that OL can achieve defect reduction within the house building sector in the UK. The paper concludes by outlining a potential ‘learning from defects model’ for the housebuilding industry as well as describing future work.

Computerized identification of motor complications in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To investigate whether spirography-based objective measures are able to effectively characterize the severity of unwanted symptom states (Off and dyskinesia) and discriminate them from motor state of healthy elderly subjects. Background: Sixty-five patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) and 10 healthy elderly (HE) subjects performed repeated assessments of spirography, using a touch screen telemetry device in their home environments. On inclusion, the patients were either treated with levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel or were candidates for switching to this treatment. On each test occasion, the subjects were asked trace a pre-drawn Archimedes spiral shown on the screen, using an ergonomic pen stylus. The test was repeated three times and was performed using dominant hand. A clinician used a web interface which animated the spiral drawings, allowing him to observe different kinematic features, like accelerations and spatial changes, during the drawing process and to rate different motor impairments. Initially, the motor impairments of drawing speed, irregularity and hesitation were rated on a 0 (normal) to 4 (extremely severe) scales followed by marking the momentary motor state of the patient into 2 categories that is Off and Dyskinesia. A sample of spirals drawn by HE subjects was randomly selected and used in subsequent analysis. Methods: The raw spiral data, consisting of stylus position and timestamp, were processed using time series analysis techniques like discrete wavelet transform, approximate entropy and dynamic time warping in order to extract 13 quantitative measures for representing meaningful motor impairment information. A principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimensions of the quantitative measures into 4 principal components (PC). In order to classify the motor states into 3 categories that is Off, HE and dyskinesia, a logistic regression model was used as a classifier to map the 4 PCs to the corresponding clinically assigned motor state categories. A stratified 10-fold cross-validation (also known as rotation estimation) was applied to assess the generalization ability of the logistic regression classifier to future independent data sets. To investigate mean differences of the 4 PCs across the three categories, a one-way ANOVA test followed by Tukey multiple comparisons was used. Results: The agreements between computed and clinician ratings were very good with a weighted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) coefficient of 0.91. The mean PC scores were different across the three motor state categories, only at different levels. The first 2 PCs were good at discriminating between the motor states whereas the PC3 was good at discriminating between HE subjects and PD patients. The mean scores of PC4 showed a trend across the three states but without significant differences. The Spearman’s rank correlations between the first 2 PCs and clinically assessed motor impairments were as follows: drawing speed (PC1, 0.34; PC2, 0.83), irregularity (PC1, 0.17; PC2, 0.17), and hesitation (PC1, 0.27; PC2, 0.77). Conclusions: These findings suggest that spirography-based objective measures are valid measures of spatial- and time-dependent deficits and can be used to distinguish drug-related motor dysfunctions between Off and dyskinesia in PD. These measures can be potentially useful during clinical evaluation of individualized drug-related complications such as over- and under-medications thus maximizing the amount of time the patients spend in the On state.

Languaging in virtual learning sites : studies of online encounters in the language-focused classroom

This thesis focuses upon a series of empirical studies which examine communication and learning in online glocal communities within higher education in Sweden. A recurring theme in the theoretical framework deals with issues of languaging in virtual multimodal environments as well as the making of identity and negotiation of meaning in these settings; analyzing the activity, what people do, in contraposition to the study of how people talk about their activity. The studies arise from netnographic work during two online Italian for Beginners courses offered by a Swedish university. Microanalyses of the interactions occurring through multimodal video-conferencing software are amplified by the study of the courses’ organisation of space and time and have allowed for the identification of communicative strategies and interactional patterns in virtual learning sites when participants communicate in a language variety with which they have a limited experience. The findings from the four studies included in the thesis indicate that students who are part of institutional virtual higher educational settings make use of several resources in order to perform their identity positions inside the group as a way to enrich and nurture the process of communication and learning in this online glocal community. The sociocultural dialogical analyses also shed light on the ways in which participants gathering in discursive technological spaces benefit from the opportunity to go to class without commuting to the physical building of the institution providing the course. This identity position is, thus, both experienced by participants in interaction, and also afforded by the ‘spaceless’ nature of the online environment.

Monetary equilibrium with decentralized trade and learning

This paper analyzes the stability of monetary regimes in an economy where fiat money is endogenously created by the government, information about its value is imperfect, and learning is decentralized. We show that monetary stability depends crucially on the speed of information transmission in the economy. Our model generates a dynamic on the acceptability of fiat money that resembles historical accounts of the rise and eventual collapse of overissued paper money. It also provides an explanation of the fact that, despite its obvious advantages, the widespread use of fiat money is only a recent development.

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Comunidade fitoplanctônica como discriminador ambiental em açude eutrófico tropical semiárido (Barragem Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves, RN) e divulgação científica para reflexão social

The knowledge of the phytoplankton community, as an integral and dynamic processes of eutrophication, provides information essential for proper management and handling. A growing problem of cyanobacteria in reservoirs around the world as a result of artificial eutrophication processes, generating a particular concern, because some species produce cyanotoxins, which can cause adverse effects on human health. The present work aims to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplankton, assessing their potential as ecological indicator of water quality in reservoirs semiarid region. The samples of water were collected monthly between 2009 and 2011, at three points along the dam Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves / RN. In each sample were measured physico - chemical analysis of water and biological components. We conducted a scientific dissemination activity, with distribution and reading primer on eutrophication, informative talk about water quality, questionnaires and performing a play in a public school in the city of Itajá / RN. The reservoir was considered eutrophic in three points, taking into account the values of chlorophyll -a and phosphorus, adopted to characterize eutrophic environments of semi-arid areas. High density of cyanobacteria, with a maximum value of 2.227.862 cél.ml- 1 and minimum of 43.456 cél.ml- 1 was recorded in lentic and semilêntico points throughout the study, exceeding the levels of drinking water (20.000 cél.ml- 1) established in 2.914/2011 Ordinance of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. All samples contained microcystin, and 44 % had values superiores1μg L- 1. The thermal pattern of the water column showed micro stratifications with differences of less than 1 ° C from five feet deep. The distribution pattern was the type profile clinogrado with oxygen deficit in the bottom of the reservoir. Oxiclina from 10 meters depth was observed during the rainy season (May-June) in the two years of study. The phytoplankton community was represented by 10 functional groups: S1, M, H1, Lo, P, F, Sn, P, W2 and R. The assessment of the ecological status of the system by the index Q showed poor water quality. The results of the study show that the vertical variations were less pronounced than the seasonal variations of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton community in general in the reservoir. The presence of cyanotoxins confirms the need for the monitoring of water quality and measures to reduce eutrophication in water supply reservoirs semiarid RN and demonstrates the challenge for water managers and health authorities to ensure water quality and consequently minimize risks to human health. Compared to the lecture, the primer was considered more efficient in sensitizing the participants, featuring a dynamic practice, differentiated learning, create opportunities for students to rethink attitudes of respect and care for the environment, and shall have the opportunity to learn the subject content from your reality and living environment. The knowledge generated from the activity of scientific were seen as essential for raising awareness of some of the region`s environmental problems , such as eutrophication

The aggressive behavior of Nile tilapia introduced into novel environments with variation in enrichment

Many studies show environmental enrichment is correlated with benefits to captive animals; however, one should not always assume this positive relationship given that enrichment increases the amount of resources that a territorial animal must defend and possibly affects its aggressive dynamics. In this study, we tested if environmental enrichment affects aggressive interactions in the aggressive fish Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). We compared fights staged between pairs of male tilapia of similar size (= matched in resource holding potential) in a novel arena that was either barren or enriched, to examine whether enrichment enhances territory value in line with theoretical predictions, with the potential for compromised welfare. We evaluated time elapsed until the first attack (latency), frequency of aggressive interactions and fight duration. We detected fight dynamic differences at the pair level. Higher resource value generated increased aggression but had no effect on fight duration or latency. This conclusion is in line with game theory predictions concerning resource value and contradicts the theory that enrichment of the environment will serve welfare purposes. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Line based camera calibration in machine vision dynamic applications

The problem of dynamic camera calibration considering moving objects in close range environments using straight lines as references is addressed. A mathematical model for the correspondence of a straight line in the object and image spaces is discussed. This model is based on the equivalence between the vector normal to the interpretation plane in the image space and the vector normal to the rotated interpretation plane in the object space. In order to solve the dynamic camera calibration, Kalman Filtering is applied; an iterative process based on the recursive property of the Kalman Filter is defined, using the sequentially estimated camera orientation parameters to feedback the feature extraction process in the image. For the dynamic case, e.g. an image sequence of a moving object, a state prediction and a covariance matrix for the next instant is obtained using the available estimates and the system model. Filtered state estimates can be computed from these predicted estimates using the Kalman Filtering approach and based on the system model parameters with good quality, for each instant of an image sequence. The proposed approach was tested with simulated and real data. Experiments with real data were carried out in a controlled environment, considering a sequence of images of a moving cube in a linear trajectory over a flat surface.