Aggregation under a forced convective flow

Morphological transitions are analyzed for a radial multiparticle diffusion-limited aggregation process grown under a convective drift. The introduction of a tangential flow changes the morphology of the diffusion-limited structure, into multiarm structures, inclined opposite to the flow, whose limit consists of single arms, when decreasing density. The case of shear flow is also considered. The anisotropy of the patterns is characterized in terms of a tangential correlation function based analysis. Comparison between the simulation results and preliminary experimental results has been done.

Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.

Conocimiento del método anticonceptivo de lactancia y amenorrea (MELA) en gestantes residentes en Logroño

El rol de la mujer ha evolucionado a ser el de una madre y trabajadora a la vez, originandocambios en las expectativas a la hora de tener descendencia, retrasando la edad de tener hijosy decidiendo crear núcleos pequeños 1, 2. Uno de los paradigmas enfermeros que se tiene encuenta en estas situaciones es el del autocuidado, por lo que como profesional en el campo dela planificación familiar, una de las labores es ofrecer información sobre los métodosanticonceptivos, adaptándolos a cada persona y en cada momento, según la situacióneconómica, social, física o emocional. De esta forma se podrían evitar los embarazos nodeseados y los maltratos infantiles. Uno de los métodos anticonceptivos naturales, que estáintegrado en la planificación familiar, es el método anticonceptivo lactancia-amenorrea. Éstees un método está basado en la fertilidad de la mujer cuando está realizando lactanciamaterna exclusiva.En este trabajo se propone investigar cuál es el grado de conocimiento que tienen las futurasmadres en la actualidad sobre este método anticonceptivo, ya que esto nos servirá de guíapara ofrecer la información necesaria, pudiendo reforzar los puntos débiles que se puedandetectar con éste estudio. Se propone un estudio multicéntrico, cuantitativo, observacional,descriptivo de corte transversal. Se administrará un cuestionario autoadministrado diseñado ad hoc, en una muestra de 148 gestantes durante el tercer trimestre (semana 32-38 de gestación), residentes en Logroño.

Optimization of Snow Drifting Mitigation and Control Methods for Iowa Conditions Part II, TR-626, 2015

Blowing and drifting of snow is a major concern for transportation efficiency and road safety in regions where their development is common. One common way to mitigate snow drift on roadways is to install plastic snow fences. Correct design of snow fences is critical for road safety and maintaining the roads open during winter in the US Midwest and other states affected by large snow events during the winter season and to maintain costs related to accumulation of snow on the roads and repair of roads to minimum levels. Of critical importance for road safety is the protection against snow drifting in regions with narrow rights of way, where standard fences cannot be deployed at the recommended distance from the road. Designing snow fences requires sound engineering judgment and a thorough evaluation of the potential for snow blowing and drifting at the construction site. The evaluation includes site-specific design parameters typically obtained with semi-empirical relations characterizing the local transport conditions. Among the critical parameters involved in fence design and assessment of their post-construction efficiency is the quantification of the snow accumulation at fence sites. The present study proposes a joint experimental and numerical approach to monitor snow deposits around snow fences, quantitatively estimate snow deposits in the field, asses the efficiency and improve the design of snow fences. Snow deposit profiles were mapped using GPS based real-time kinematic surveys (RTK) conducted at the monitored field site during and after snow storms. The monitored site allowed testing different snow fence designs under close to identical conditions over four winter seasons. The study also discusses the detailed monitoring system and analysis of weather forecast and meteorological conditions at the monitored sites. A main goal of the present study was to assess the performance of lightweight plastic snow fences with a lower porosity than the typical 50% porosity used in standard designs of such fences. The field data collected during the first winter was used to identify the best design for snow fences with a porosity of 50%. Flow fields obtained from numerical simulations showed that the fence design that worked the best during the first winter induced the formation of an elongated area of small velocity magnitude close to the ground. This information was used to identify other candidates for optimum design of fences with a lower porosity. Two of the designs with a fence porosity of 30% that were found to perform well based on results of numerical simulations were tested in the field during the second winter along with the best performing design for fences with a porosity of 50%. Field data showed that the length of the snow deposit away from the fence was reduced by about 30% for the two proposed lower-porosity (30%) fence designs compared to the best design identified for fences with a porosity of 50%. Moreover, one of the lower-porosity designs tested in the field showed no significant snow deposition within the bottom gap region beneath the fence. Thus, a major outcome of this study is to recommend using plastic snow fences with a porosity of 30%. It is expected that this lower-porosity design will continue to work well for even more severe snow events or for successive snow events occurring during the same winter. The approach advocated in the present study allowed making general recommendations for optimizing the design of lower-porosity plastic snow fences. This approach can be extended to improve the design of other types of snow fences. Some preliminary work for living snow fences is also discussed. Another major contribution of this study is to propose, develop protocols and test a novel technique based on close range photogrammetry (CRP) to quantify the snow deposits trapped snow fences. As image data can be acquired continuously, the time evolution of the volume of snow retained by a snow fence during a storm or during a whole winter season can, in principle, be obtained. Moreover, CRP is a non-intrusive method that eliminates the need to perform man-made measurements during the storms, which are difficult and sometimes dangerous to perform. Presently, there is lots of empiricism in the design of snow fences due to lack of data on fence storage capacity on how snow deposits change with the fence design and snow storm characteristics and in the estimation of the main parameters used by the state DOTs to design snow fences at a given site. The availability of such information from CRP measurements should provide critical data for the evaluation of the performance of a certain snow fence design that is tested by the IDOT. As part of the present study, the novel CRP method is tested at several sites. The present study also discusses some attempts and preliminary work to determine the snow relocation coefficient which is one of the main variables that has to be estimated by IDOT engineers when using the standard snow fence design software (Snow Drift Profiler, Tabler, 2006). Our analysis showed that standard empirical formulas did not produce reasonable values when applied at the Iowa test sites monitored as part of the present study and that simple methods to estimate this variable are not reliable. The present study makes recommendations for the development of a new methodology based on Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry that can directly measure the snow drift fluxes and the amount of snow relocated by the fence.

What determines the wavelength of self-organized shoreline sand waves?

Shoreline undulations extending into the bathymetric contours with a length scale larger than that of the rhythmic surf zone bars are referred to as shoreline sand waves. Many observed undulations along sandy coasts display a wavelength in the order 1-7 km. Several models that are based on the hypothesis that sand waves emerge from a morphodynamic instability in case of very oblique wave incidence predict this range of wavelengths. Here we investigate the physical reasons for the wavelength selection and the main parametric trends of the wavelength in case of sand waves arising from such instability. It is shown that the existence of a minimum wavelength depends on an interplay between three factors affecting littoral drift: (A) the angle of wave fronts relative to local shoreline, which tends to cause maximum transport at the downdrift flank of the sand wave, (B) the refractive energy spreading which tends to cause maximum transport at the updrift flank and (C) wave focusing (de-focusing) by the capes (bays), which tends to cause maximum transport at the crest or slightly downdrift of it. Processes A and C cause decay of the sand waves while process B causes their growth. For low incidence angles, B is very weak so that a rectilinear shoreline is stable. For large angles and long sand waves, B is dominant and causes the growth of sand waves. For large angles and short sand waves C is dominant and the sand waves decay. Thus, wavelength selection depends on process C, which essentially depends on shoreline curvature. The growth rate of very long sand waves is weak because the alongshore gradients in sediment transport decrease with the wavelength. This is why there is an optimum or dominant wavelength. It is found that sand wave wavelength scales with λ0/β where λ0 is the water wave wavelength in deep water and β is the mean bed slope from shore to the wave base.

Augmented state Kalman filtering for AUV navigation

Addresses the problem of estimating the motion of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), while it constructs a visual map ("mosaic" image) of the ocean floor. The vehicle is equipped with a down-looking camera which is used to compute its motion with respect to the seafloor. As the mosaic increases in size, a systematic bias is introduced in the alignment of the images which form the mosaic. Therefore, this accumulative error produces a drift in the estimation of the position of the vehicle. When the arbitrary trajectory of the AUV crosses over itself, it is possible to reduce this propagation of image alignment errors within the mosaic. A Kalman filter with augmented state is proposed to optimally estimate both the visual map and the vehicle position

The birth of the Rheic Ocean - Early Palaeozoic subsidence patterns and subsequent tectonic plate scenarios

New plate-tectonic reconstructions of the Gondwana margin suggest that the location of Gondwana-derived terranes should not only be guided by the models, but should also consider the possible detrital input from some Asian blocks (Hunia), supposed to have been located along the Cambrian Gondwana margin, and accreted in the Silurian to the North-Chinese block. Consequently, the Gondwana margin has to be subdivided into a more western domain, where the future Avalonian blocks will be separated from Gondwana by the opening Rheic Ocean, whereas in its eastern continuation, hosting the future basement areas of Central Europe, different periods of crustal extension should be distinguished. Instead of applying a rather cylindrical model, it is supposed that crustal extension follows a much more complex pattern, where local back-arcs or intra-continental rifts are involved. Guided by the age data of magmatic rocks and the pattern of subsidence curves, the following extensional events can be distinguished: During the early to middle Cambrian, a back-arc setting guided the evolution at the Gondwana margin. Contemporaneous intra-continental rift basins developed at other places related to a general post-PanAfrican extensional phase affecting Africa Upper Cambrian formation of oceanic crust is manifested in the Chamrousse area, and may have lateral cryptic relics preserved in other places. This is regarded as the oceanisation of some marginal basins in a context of back-arc rifting. These basins were closed in a mid-Ordovician tectonic phase, related to the subduction of buoyant material (mid-ocean ridge?) Since the Early Ordovician, a new phase of extension is observed, accompanied by a large-scale volcanic activity, erosion of the rift shoulders generated detritus (Armorican Quartzite) and the rift basins collected detrital zircons from a wide hinterland. This phase heralded the opening of Palaeotethys, but it failed due to the Silurian collision (Eo-Variscan phase) of an intra-oceanic arc with the Gondwana margin. During this time period, at the eastern wing of the Gondwana margin begins the drift of the future Hunia microcontinents, through the opening of an eastern prolongation of the already existing Rheic Ocean. The passive margin of the remaining Gondwana was composed of the Galatian superterranes, constituents of the future Variscan basement areas. Remaining under the influence of crustal extension, they will start their drift to Laurussia since the earliest Devonian during the opening of the Palaeotethys Ocean. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

quantiNemo: an individual-based program to simulate quantitative traits with explicit genetic architecture in a dynamic metapopulation.

quantiNemo is an individual-based, genetically explicit stochastic simulation program. It was developed to investigate the effects of selection, mutation, recombination and drift on quantitative traits with varying architectures in structured populations connected by migration and located in a heterogeneous habitat. quantiNemo is highly flexible at various levels: population, selection, trait(s) architecture, genetic map for QTL and/or markers, environment, demography, mating system, etc. quantiNemo is coded in C++ using an object-oriented approach and runs on any computer platform. Availability: Executables for several platforms, user's manual, and source code are freely available under the GNU General Public License at http://www2.unil.ch/popgen/softwares/quantinemo.

Comparisons of Estimates of Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Small Drainage Basins in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2013, TR-678, 2015

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for small (20 square miles or less) drainage basins in Iowa. With the publication of new multi- and single-variable RREs by the U.S. Geological Survey (published in 2013), the Iowa Department of Transportation needs to determine which methods of AEPD estimation provide the best accuracy and the least bias for small drainage basins in Iowa. Twenty five streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 square miles (mi2) and 55 streamgages with drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2 were selected for the comparisons that used two evaluation metrics. Estimates of AEPDs calculated for the streamgages using the expected moments algorithm/multiple Grubbs-Beck test analysis method were compared to estimates of AEPDs calculated from the 2013 multivariable RREs; the 2013 single-variable RREs; the 1987 single-variable RREs; the TR-55 rainfall-runoff model; and the Iowa Runoff Chart. For the 25 streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the TR-55 method for flood regions 1 and 3 (published in 2013) and by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For drainage basins with areas between 2 and 20 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for the Southern Iowa Drift Plain landform region and for flood region 3 (published in 2013), by using the 2013 multivariable RREs for the Iowan Surface landform region, and by using the 2013 or 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For all other landform or flood regions in Iowa, use of the 2013 single-variable RREs may provide the best overall accuracy and the least bias. An examination was conducted to understand why the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias than either of the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs. A comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance-probability regression lines for hydrologic regions 1–4 from the 1987 single-variable RREs and for flood regions 1–3 from the 2013 single-variable RREs indicates that the 1987 single-variable regional-regression lines generally have steeper slopes and lower discharges when compared to 2013 single-variable regional-regression lines for corresponding areas of Iowa. The combination of the definition of hydrologic regions, the lower discharges, and the steeper slopes of regression lines associated with the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias when compared to the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs; better accuracy and less bias was determined particularly for drainage areas less than 2 mi2, and also for some drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2. The 2013 multi- and single-variable RREs are considered to provide better accuracy and less bias for larger drainage areas. Results of this study indicate that additional research is needed to address the curvilinear relation between drainage area and AEPDs for areas of Iowa.

First-passage and escape problems in the Feller process

The Feller process is an one-dimensional diffusion process with linear drift and state-dependent diffusion coefficient vanishing at the origin. The process is positive definite and it is this property along with its linear character that have made Feller process a convenient candidate for the modeling of a number of phenomena ranging from single-neuron firing to volatility of financial assets. While general properties of the process have long been well known, less known are properties related to level crossing such as the first-passage and the escape problems. In this work we thoroughly address these questions.

Dispersal and Inbreeding Avoidance.

Using a game-theoretical approach, we investigate the dispersal patterns expected if inbreeding avoidance were the only reason for dispersal. The evolutionary outcome is always complete philopatry by one sex. The rate of dispersal by the other sex depends on patch size and mating system, as well as inbreeding and dispersal costs. If such costs are sex independent, then two stable equilibria coexist (male or female philopatry), with symmetric domains of attraction. Which sex disperses is determined entirely by history, genetic drift, and gene flow. An asymmetry in costs makes one domain of attraction extend at the expense of the other. In such a case, the dispersing sex might also be, paradoxically, the one that incurs the higher dispersal costs. As asymmetry increases, one equilibrium eventually disappears, which may result in a sudden evolutionary shift in the identity of the dispersing sex. Our results underline the necessity to control for phylogenetic relationships (e.g., through the use of independent-comparisons methods) when investigating empirical trends in dispersal. Our model also makes quantitative predictions on the rate of dispersal by the dispersing sex and suggests that inbreeding avoidance may only rarely be the sole reason for dispersal.

Genetic bottlenecks driven by population disconnection.

Connectivity among populations plays a crucial role in maintaining genetic variation at a local scale, especially in small populations affected strongly by genetic drift. The negative consequences of population disconnection on allelic richness and gene diversity (heterozygosity) are well recognized and empirically established. It is not well recognized, however, that a sudden drop in local effective population size induced by such disconnection produces a temporary disequilibrium in allelic frequency distributions that is akin to the genetic signature of a demographic bottleneck. To document this effect, we used individual-based simulations and empirical data on allelic richness and gene diversity in six pairs of isolated versus well-connected (core) populations of European tree frogs. In our simulations, population disconnection depressed allelic richness more than heterozygosity and thus resulted in a temporary excess in gene diversity relative to mutation drift equilibrium (i.e., signature of a genetic bottleneck). We observed a similar excess in gene diversity in isolated populations of tree frogs. Our results show that population disconnection can create a genetic bottleneck in the absence of demographic collapse.

1011-006 Competine Creek Watershed Final Report

The Competine Creek watershed is a 24,956 acre sub-watershed of Cedar Creek. The creek traverses portions of three counties, slicing through rich and highly productive Southern lowa Drift Plain soils. The watershed is suffering from excessive sediment delivery and frequent flash floods that have been exacerbated by recent high rainfall events. Assessment data reveals soil erosion estimated to be 38,435 tons/year and sediment delivery to the creek at 15,847 tons/year. The Competine Creek Partnership Project is seeking WIRB funds to merge with IDALS-DSC funds and local funds, all targeted for structural Best Management Practices (BMPs) within the 2,760 acres of High Priority Areas (HPAs) identified by the assessment process. The BMPs will include grade stabilization structures, water and sediment basins, tile-outlet terraces, CRP, and urban storm water conservation practices. In addition, Iowa State University Extension-Iowa Learning Farm is investing in the project by facilitating a crop sampling program utilizing fall stalk nitrate, phosphorous index, and soil conditioning index testing. These tests will be used by producers as measures of performance to refine nutrient and soil loss management and to determine effective alternatives to reduce sediment and nutrient delivery to Competine Creek.

Le Briançonnais, terrain exotique dans les Alpes ?

New reconstructions of the Western Alps from late Early Jurassic till early Tertiary are proposed. These reconstructions use deep lithospheric data gathered through recent seismic surveys and tomographic studies carried out in the Alps. The present day position, under the Po plain, of the southern limit of the European plate (fig. 1), allows to define the former geometry of the Brianconnais peninsula. The Brianconnais domain is regarded as an exotic terrane formerly belonging to the European margin until Late Jurassic, then transported eastward during the drift of Iberia (fig. 5). Therefore, on a present day Western Alps cross section, a duplication of the European continental margin can be recognized (fig. 10). Stratigraphic and sedimentological data along a zone linking the Pyrenean fracture zone to the Brianconnais, can be related to a rifting event starting in Oxfordian time. This event is responsible for the Late Jurassic till mid-Cretaceous drift of Iberia opening, first the northern Atlantic, then the Gulf of Biscay. Simultaneously, the drift of the Brianconnais will open the Valais ocean and close the Piemontese ocean. The resulting oblique collision zone between the Brianconnais and the Apulian margin generates HP/LT metamorphism starting in Early Cretaceous. The eastward drift of the Brianconnais peninsula will eventually bring it in front of a more northerly segment of the former European margin. The thrusting of the Brianconnais unto that margin takes place in early Tertiary (fig. 9), following the subduction of the Valais ocean. The present nappe pile results not only from continent/continent frontal collision, but also from important lateral displacement of terranes, the most important one being the Brianconnais. The dilemma of `'en echelon'' oceanic domains in the Alps is an outcome of these translations. A solution is found when considering the opening of a Cretaceous Valais ocean across the European margin, running out eastward into the Piemontese ocean, where the drift is taken up along a former transform fault and compensated by subduction under the Apulian margin (fig. 8). In the Western Alps we are then dealing with two oceans, the Piemontese and the Valaisan and a duplicated European margin. In the Eastern Alps the single Piemontese ocean is cut by newly created oceanic crust. All these elements will be incorporated into the Penninic structural domain which does not represent a former unique paleogeographic area, it is a composite accretionary domain squeezed between Europe and Apulia.

Holographic optical tweezers combined with back-focal-plane displacement detection

A major problem with holographic optical tweezers (HOTs) is their incompatibility with laser-based position detection methods, such as back-focal-plane interferometry (BFPI). The alternatives generally used with HOTs, like high-speed video tracking, do not offer the same spatial and temporal bandwidths. This has limited the use of this technique in precise quantitative experiments. In this paper, we present an optical trap design that combines digital holography and back-focal-plane displacement detection. We show that, with a particularly simple setup, it is possible to generate a set of multiple holographic traps and an additional static non-holographic trap with orthogonal polarizations and that they can be, therefore, easily separated for measuring positions and forces with the high positional and temporal resolutions of laser-based detection. We prove that measurements from both polarizations contain less than 1% crosstalk and that traps in our setup are harmonic within the typical range. We further tested the instrument in a DNA stretching experiment and we discuss an interesting property of this configuration: the small drift of the differential signal between traps.