An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Aruba

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on Aruba. This study has three main objectives. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply of tourism in Aruba. The second is to forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2050 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the Business as Usual (BAU) as a comparator climate scenario, and the third is to estimate the cost of adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by Aruba to address climate change in the tourism sector.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Curacao

In this study, an attempt is made to estimate the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the (former) Netherlands Antilles. There are three main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply of tourism in Netherlands Antilles. The second is to forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2050 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the (Business as Usual) as a comparator climate scenario, and the third is to estimate the cost of adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector in the Netherlands Antilles to address climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean

Between 2008 and 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) worked on a project to assess the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean. The overall aim is to prepare the Caribbean region to better respond to climate change, while fostering a regional approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. This study updates the report on the impact of climate change on the macroeconomy at the regional level and will focus on 9 countries: Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Curacao, the Dominican Republic, Montserrat, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system Objectives: To compare costs and clinical benefits of three additional therapies to metformin (MF) for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Methods: A discrete event simulation model seas built to estimate the cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life years [QALY)) of saxagliptine as an additional therapy to MF when compared to rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. A budget impact model (BIM) was built to simulate the economic impact of saxagliptine use in the context of the Brazilian private health system. Results: The acquiring medication costs for the hypothetical patient group analyzed in a time frame of three years, were R$ 10,850,185, R$ 14,836,265 and R$ 14,679,099 for saxagliptine, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, respectively. Saxagliptine showed lower costs and greater effectiveness in both comparisons, with projected savings for the first three years of R$ 3,874 and R$ 3,996, respectively. The BIM estimated cumulative savings of R$ 417,958 with the repayment of saxagliptine in three years from the perspective of a health plan with 1,000,000 covered individuals. Conclusion: From the perspective of private paying source, the projection is that adding saxagliptine with MF save costs when compared with the addition of rosiglitazone or pioglitazone in patients with DM2 that have not reached the HbA1c goal with metformin monotherapy. The BIM of including saxagliptine in the reimbursement lists of health plans indicated significant savings on the three-year horizon.

Impact of pretransplant minimal residual disease after cord blood transplantation for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in remission: an Eurocord, PDWP-EBMT analysis

To address the prognostic value of minimal residual disease (MRD) before unrelated cord blood transplantation (UCBT) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), we analyzed 170 ALL children transplanted in complete remission (CR) after myeloablative conditioning regimen. In all, 72 (43%) were in first CR (CR1), 77 (45%) in second CR (CR2) and 21 (12%) in third CR (CR3). The median interval from MRD quantification to UCBT was 18 days. All patients received single-unit UCBT. Median follow-up was 4 years. Cumulative incidence (CI) of day-60 neutrophil engraftment was 85%. CI of 4 years relapse was 30%, incidence being lower in patients with negative MRD before UCBT (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.4, P = 0.01) and for those transplanted in CR1 and CR2 (HR = 0.3, P = 0.002). Probability of 4 years leukemia-free survival (LFS) was 44%, (56, 44 and 14% for patients transplanted in CR1, CR2 and CR3, respectively (P = 0.0001)). Patients with negative MRD before UCBT had better LFS after UCBT compared with those with positive MRD (54% vs 29%; HR = 2, P = 0.003). MRD assessment before UCBT for children with ALL in remission allows identifying patients at higher risk of relapse after transplantation. Approaches that may decrease relapse incidence in children given UCBT with positive MRD should be investigated to improve final outcomes. Leukemia (2012) 26, 2455-2461; doi:10.1038/leu.2012.123

Assessment of cumulative damage by using ultrasonic C-scan on carbon fiber/epoxy composites under thermal cycling

In recent years, structural composites manufactured by carbon fiber/epoxy laminates have been employed in large scale in aircraft industries. These structures require high strength under severe temperature changes of -56° until 80 °C. Regarding this scenario, the aim of this research was to reproduce thermal stress in the laminate plate developed by temperature changes and tracking possible cumulative damages on the laminate using ultrasonic C-scan inspection. The evaluation was based on attenuation signals and the C-scan map of the composite plate. The carbon fiber/epoxy plain weave laminate underwent temperatures of -60° to 80 °C, kept during 10 minutes and repeated for 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 times. After 1000 cycles, the specimens were inspected by C-scanning. A few changes in the laminate were observed using the inspection methodology only in specimens cycled 3000 times, or so. According to the found results, the used temperature range did not present enough conditions to cumulative damage in this type of laminate, which is in agreement with the macro - and micromechanical theory.

Quantitative evaluation of household nutrition patterns: an econometric assessment of the UK 5-a-day impact on fruit and vegetable consumption

The present work provides an ex-post assessment of the UK 5-a-day information campaign where the positive effects of information on consumption levels are disentangled from the potentially conflicting price dynamics. A model-based estimate of the counterfactual (no-intervention) scenario is computed using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey between 2002 and 2006. For this purpose fruit and vegetable demand is modelled employing Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) specification with demographic effects and controlling for potential endogeneity of prices and total food expenditure.

Assessment of marine litter in the Western Adriatic Sea and its impact on marine biota

Due to its environmental, safety, health and socio-economic impacts, marine litter has been recognized as a 21st century global challenge, so that it has been included in Descriptor 10 of the EU MSFD. For its morphological features and anthropogenic pressures, the Adriatic Sea is very sensitive to the accumulation of debris, but data are inconsistent and fragmented. This thesis, in the framework of DeFishGear project, intents to assess marine litter on beaches and on seafloor in the Western Adriatic sea, and test if debris ingestion by fish occurs. Three beaches were sampled during two surveys in 2015. Benthic litter monitoring was carried out in the FAO GSA17 during fall 2014, using a rapido trawl. Litter ingestion was investigated through gut contents analysis of 260 fish belonging to 8 commercial species collected in Western Gulf of Venice. Average litter density on beaches was 1.5 items/m2 during spring, and decreased to 0.8 items/m2 in summer. Litter composition was heterogeneous and varied among sites, even if no significant differences were found. Most of debris consisted of plastic sheets, fragments, polystyrene pieces, mussels nets and cottons bud sticks, showing that sources are many and include aquaculture, land-based activities and local users of beaches. Average density of benthic litter was 913 items/Km2 (82 Kg/Km2). Plastic dominated in terms of numbers and weight, and consisted mainly of bags, sheets and mussel nets. The highest density was found close to the coast, and sources driving the major differences in litter distribution were mussel farms and shipping lanes. Litter ingestion occurred in 47% of examined fish, mainly consisting of fibers. Among species, S. pilchardus swallowed almost all debris categories. Findinds may provide a baseline to set the necessary measures to manage and minimize marine litter in the Western Adriatic region and to protect aquatic life from plastic pollution, even accounting the possible implications on human health.

Health insurance coverage of Hispanic adults: An assessment of subgroup difference and the impact of immigration

This research explores the health insurance coverage of various Hispanic subgroups in comparison to non-Hispanic whites and blacks. The impact of immigration status is also considered as we hypothesize that nativity, duration, and naturalization tap a possible process of structural acculturation that increases access to insurance coverage for Hispanic groups. We find that the immigration variables impact the type of insurance reported. However, race/ethnic disparities continue to exist, with the various Hispanic subgroups more likely to report miscellaneous government health insurance or no health insurance coverage as compared to non-Hispanic whites.

Hydrologic and Water Quality Assessment of Miller Run: A Study of Bucknell University’s Impact

Human development causes degradation of stream ecosystems due to impacts on channel morphology, hydrology, and water quality. Urbanization, the second leading cause of stream impairment, increases the amount of impervious surface cover, thus reducing infiltration and increasing surface runoff of precipitation, which ultimately affects stream hydrologic process and aquatic biodiversity. The main objective of this study was to assess the overall health of Miller Run, a small tributary of the Bull Run and Susquehanna River watersheds, through an integrative hydrologic and water quality approach in order to determine the degree of Bucknell University’s impact on the stream. Hydrologic conditions, including stage and discharge, and water quality conditions, including total suspended solids, ion, nutrient, and dissolved metal concentrations, specific conductivity, pH, and temperature, were measured and evaluated at two sampling sites (upstream and downstream of Bucknell’s main campus) during various rain events from September 2007 to March 2008. The primary focus of the stream analysis was based on one main rain event on 26 February 2008. The results provided evidence that Miller Run is impacted by Bucknell’s campus. From a hydrologic perspective, the stream’s hydrograph showed the exact opposite pattern of what would be expected from a ‘normal’ stream. Miller run had a flashier downstream hydrograph and a broader upstream hydrograph, which was more than likely due to the increased amount of impervious surface cover throughout the downstream half of the watershed. From a water quality perspective, sediment loads increased at a faster rate and were significantly higher downstream compared to upstream. These elevated sediment concentrations were probably the combined result of sediment runoff from upstream and downstream construction sites that were being developed over the course of the study. Sodium, chloride, and potassium concentrations, in addition to specific conductivity, also significantly increased downstream of Bucknell’s campus due to the runoff of road salts. Calcium and magnesium concentrations did not appear to be impacted by urbanization, although they did demonstrate a significant dilution effect downstream. The downstream site was not directly affected by elevated nitrate concentrations; however, soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations tended to increase downstream and ammonium concentrations significantly peaked partway through the rain event downstream. These patterns suggest that Miller Run may be impacted by nutrient runoff from the golf course, athletic fields, and/or fertilizers applications on the main campus. Dissolved manganese and iron concentrations also appeared to slightly increase downstream, demonstrating the affect of urban runoff from roads and parking lots. pH and temperature both decreased farther downstream, but neither showed a significant impact of urbanization. More studies are necessary to determine how Miller Run responds to changes in season, climate, precipitation intensity, and land-use. This study represents the base-line analysis of Miller Run’s current hydrologic and water quality conditions; based on these initial findings, Bucknell should strongly consider modifications to improve storm water management practices and to reduce the campus’s overall impact on the stream in order to enhance and preserve the integrity of its natural water resources.