Sviluppo di un approccio congiunto fuzzy-Bayesiano per l'analisi e la modellizzazione degli ecosistemi: applicazione ad ecosistemi marini costieri.

Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.

Assessment of marine litter in the Western Adriatic Sea and its impact on marine biota

Due to its environmental, safety, health and socio-economic impacts, marine litter has been recognized as a 21st century global challenge, so that it has been included in Descriptor 10 of the EU MSFD. For its morphological features and anthropogenic pressures, the Adriatic Sea is very sensitive to the accumulation of debris, but data are inconsistent and fragmented. This thesis, in the framework of DeFishGear project, intents to assess marine litter on beaches and on seafloor in the Western Adriatic sea, and test if debris ingestion by fish occurs. Three beaches were sampled during two surveys in 2015. Benthic litter monitoring was carried out in the FAO GSA17 during fall 2014, using a rapido trawl. Litter ingestion was investigated through gut contents analysis of 260 fish belonging to 8 commercial species collected in Western Gulf of Venice. Average litter density on beaches was 1.5 items/m2 during spring, and decreased to 0.8 items/m2 in summer. Litter composition was heterogeneous and varied among sites, even if no significant differences were found. Most of debris consisted of plastic sheets, fragments, polystyrene pieces, mussels nets and cottons bud sticks, showing that sources are many and include aquaculture, land-based activities and local users of beaches. Average density of benthic litter was 913 items/Km2 (82 Kg/Km2). Plastic dominated in terms of numbers and weight, and consisted mainly of bags, sheets and mussel nets. The highest density was found close to the coast, and sources driving the major differences in litter distribution were mussel farms and shipping lanes. Litter ingestion occurred in 47% of examined fish, mainly consisting of fibers. Among species, S. pilchardus swallowed almost all debris categories. Findinds may provide a baseline to set the necessary measures to manage and minimize marine litter in the Western Adriatic region and to protect aquatic life from plastic pollution, even accounting the possible implications on human health.

Transgenerational effects of temperature on egg and larval development in Cyprinodon variegatus

Transgenerational plasticity (TGP), a type of maternal effect, occurs when the environment experienced by one or both the parents prior to fertilization directly translates, without changing DNA sequences, into changes in offspring reaction norms. Evidence of such effects has been found in several traits throughout many phyla, and, although of great potential importance - especially in a time of rapid climate change - TGP in thermal growth physiology had never been demonstrated for vertebrates until the first experiment on thermal TGP in sheepshead minnows, who, given sufficient time, adaptively program their offspring for maximal egg viability and growth at the temperature experienced before fertilization. This study on sheepshead minnows from South Carolina and Connecticut investigates how population, parent temperature, and offspring temperature affect egg production, size, viability, larval survival and growth rates, whether these effects provide evidence of TGP, and whether and how they vary with length of exposure time (5, 12, 19, 26, 33 and 43 days) of the parents to the new experimental temperatures of either 26°C or 32°C. Several results are consistent with those obtained in the previous TGP study, which outline a sequence of events consisting of an initial adjustment period to the new temperatures, in which egg production decreases and no signs of TGP are present, followed by a shift to TGP (towards 26-33 days of exposure) in which parents start to produce more eggs which are better adapted to the new thermal environment. Other results present new information, such as signs of TGP in the parent temperature effect on egg sizes already around 20 days of exposure. The innovative idea of populations being able to adapt to rapidly shifting environments through non-genetic mechanisms such as TGP opens new possibilities of survival of species and will have important implications on ecology, physiology, and contemporary evolution.

Meningitis caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies capri in a goat

A 2-year-old, female goat from Connecticut was submitted for necropsy with a 5-day history of pyrexia and intermittent neurologic signs, including nystagmus, seizures, and circling. Postmortem examination revealed suppurative meningitis. Histologic examination of the brain revealed that the meninges were diffusely infiltrated by moderate numbers of lymphocytes, macrophages, and fibrin, with scattered foci of dense neutrophilic infiltrate. Culture of pus and brainstem yielded typical mycoplasma colonies. DNA sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene revealed 99% sequence homology with Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies capri and Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides Large Colony biotype, which are genetically indistinguishable and likely to be combined as a single subspecies labeled M. mycoides subsp. capri. The present case is unusual in that not only are mycoplasma an uncommon cause of meningitis in animals, but additionally, in that all other reported cases of mycoplasma meningitis in goats, systemic lesions were also present. In the present case, meningitis was the only lesion, thus illustrating the need to consider mycoplasma as a differential diagnosis for meningitis in goats.

Implant Failure Predictors in the Posterior Maxilla: A Retrospective Study of 273 Consecutive Implants

Background: The goal of this study was to retrospectively analyze a cohort of 136 patients who underwent dental implant placement in the posterior maxilla at the University of Connecticut Health Center to assess and identify predictors for implant failure in the posterior maxilla. Methods: Data were retrieved from patient charts to identify subjects older than 21 years of age who received dental implant(s) in the posterior maxilla. Patients without a postoperative baseline radiograph were excluded. A recall radiograph was taken 3 to 6 months after implant placement. If there was no recall radiograph, the subject was contacted for a recall visit that included a clinical evaluation and radiographs to determine the implant status. Based on a univariate screening, variables considered potential implant failure predictors included gender, diabetes, smoking, implant length, implant diameter, membrane use, sinus-elevation technique, and surgical complications. These parameters were further assessed, and a multivariable logistic regression was performed with implant failure as a dependant variable. All tests of significance were evaluated at the 0.05 error level. Results: Two hundred seventy-three implants were placed in the posterior maxilla. Fourteen implants failed (early and late failures combined), resulting in a 94.9% overall survival rate. The survival rates for the sinus-elevation group and native bone group were 92.2% and 96.7%, respectively (P = 0.090). Based on the multivariable analysis, sinus floor-elevation procedures were not associated with increased risk for implant failure (P = 0.702). In contrast, smoking and surgical complications had a statistically significant effect on implant failure; the odds ratios for implant failure were 6.4 (P = 0.025) and 8.2 (P = 0.004), respectively. Conclusion: Sinus-elevation procedures with simultaneous or staged implant placement do not increase the risk for implant failure, whereas smoking and surgical complications markedly increase the risk for implant failure.

Bending Shear: The Rate-Controlling Mechanism for Calving Ice Walls

Bending shear was observed to produce nearly vertical shear bands in a calving ice wall standing on dry land on Deception Island (Iat. 63.0 oS., long. 60.6 W.), and slabs calved straight downward when shear rupture occurred along these shear bands (Hughes, 1989). A formula for the calving rate was developed from the Deception Island data, and we have attempted to justify generalizing this formula to include ice walls standing along beaches or in water. These are environments in which a wave-washed groove develops along the base of the ice wall or along a water line above the base. The rate of wave erosion provides an alternative mechanism for controlling the calving rate in these environments. We have determined that the rate at which bending creep produces nearly vertical shear bands, along which shear r upture occurs, controls the calving rate in all environments. Shear rupture occurs at a calving shear stress of about I bar. Our results justify using the calving formula to compute the calving rate of ice walls in computer models of ice-sheet dynamics. This is especially important in simulating retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the last deglaciation, when marine and lacustrine environments were common along retreating ice margins. These margins would have been ice walls standing along beaches or in water, because floating ice shelves are not expected in the ablation zone of retreating ice sheets.

Circum-Antarctic Coastal Environmental Shifts During the Late Quaternary Reflected by Emerged Marine Deposits

This review assesses the circumpolar occurrence of emerged marine macrofossils and sediments from Antarctic coastal areas in relation to Late Quaternary climate changes. Radiocarbon ages of the macrofossils, which are interpreted in view of the complexities of the Antarctic marine radiocarbon reservoir and resolution of this dating technique, show a bimodal distribution. The data indicate that marine species inhabited coastal environments from at least 35000 to 20000 yr sp, during Marine Isotope Stage 3 when extensive iceberg calving created a 'meltwater lid' over the Southern Ocean. The general absence of these marine species from 20000 to 8500 yr sp coincides with the subsequent advance of the Antarctic ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum. Synchronous re-appearance of the Antarctic marine fossils in emerged beaches around the continent, all of wh ich have Holocene marine-limit elevations an order of magnitude lower than those in the Arctic, reflect minimal isostatic rebound as relative sea-level rise decelerated. Antarctic coastal marine habitat changes around the continent also coincided with increasing sea-ice extent and outlet glacial advances during the mid-Holocene. in view of the diverse environmental changes that occurred around the Earth during this period, it is suggested that Antarctic coastal areas were responding to a mid-Holocene climatic shift associated with the hydrological cycle. This synthesis of Late Quaternary emerged marine deposits demonstrates the application of evaluating circum-Antarctic phenomena from the glacial-terrestrial-marine transition zone.

Molecular Phylogenetics of Mole Crabs (Hippidae : Emerita)

Mole crabs of the genus Emerita (Family Hippidae) inhabit many of the temperate and tropical sandy beaches of the world. The nine described species of this genus are rarely sympatric, and most are endemic to broad biogeographic regions. The phylogenetic relationships among the species have not yet been investigated. Based on presumed morphological synapomorphics, it has been suggested that the species inhabiting the New World constitute a monophyletic group, as do the species inhabiting the Old World, The relationships within the New World species were previously studied using sequence data from Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16S rRNA mitochondrial genes; the results strongly suggested that one of the species, Emerita analoga, was very divergent from the other taxa examined. This observation prompted uncertainty about monophyly of the New World species. The goal of the present study was to elucidate the relationships among the species within the genus Emerita. Partial sequences for the mitochondrial COI and 16S rRNA genes for all nine species of the genus (and several outgroups) were examined. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that E. analoga is closer to the Old World taxa than to the other New World species; thus the New World Emerita species do not constitute a monophyletic group.

Facebook style: The use of non-standard features in virtual speech conditioned by the medium Facebook

Over the last few years Facebook has become a widespread and continuously expanding medium of communication. Being a new medium of social interaction, Facebook produces its own communication style. My focus of analysis is how Facebook users from the city of Malaga create this style by means of phonic features typical of the Andalusian variety and how the users reflect on the use of these phonic features. This project is based on a theoretical framework which combines variationist sociolinguistics with CMC to study the emergence of a style peculiar of the online social networks. In a corpus of Facebook users from three zones of Malaga, I have analysed the use of non-standard phonic features and then compared them with the same features in a reference corpus collected on three beaches of Malaga. From this comparison it can be deduced that the analysed social and linguistic factors work differently in real and virtual speech. Due to these different uses we can consider the peculiar electronic communication of Facebook as a style constrained by the electronic medium. It is a style which serves the users to create social meaning and to express their linguistic identities.

The Perceived Prognosis of Endodontic Treatment and Implant Therapy Among Dental Practitioners

Little data concerning the perceived success of implant therapy in comparison with endodontic treatment exists. While the criteria used to measure the outcome of each modality are not the same, it is not clear if this is appreciated by practicing dentists. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the perceived outcome of implant therapy in comparison to endodontic treatment. A 23 question Web-based survey was distributed to 648 dentists who matriculated from the University of Connecticut School Of Dental Medicine over the past 30 years. The response rate was 47%. Sixty-seven percent of respondents were general dentists. Forty-nine percent of respondents did not know different criteria exist in the literature and are used to evaluate implant and root canal treatment. Fifty-four percent of dentists felt the prognosis of implant therapy was the same as or better than endodontic treatment of teeth with vital pulps. Thirty percent of responders thought root canal treatment of teeth with necrotic pulp was superior to implants and only 16% thought retreatment was preferable. Treatment planning for implant placement vs. retreatment of a restorable tooth was 46% and 32%, respectively. A third of the respondents felt that the role of endodontics will decline in the future. Dentists’ primary source of information regarding implant therapy was continuing education; however, their primary source of information regarding endodontic treatment was their dental program. Dentists felt the prognosis of implant therapy was as good or superior to endodontic treatment of teeth with vital, necrotic or previously treated pulps.

Environmental and Endogenous Factors Influencing Emigration in Juvenile Anadromous Alewives

We analyzed juvenile anadromous alewife migration at Bride Lake, a coastal lake in Connecticut, during summer 2006 and found that migration on 24-hour and seasonal timescales was influenced by conditions of the environment and characteristics of the individual. To identify environmental cues of juvenile migration, we continuously video recorded fish at the lake outflow and employed information-theoretic model selection to identify the best predictors of daily migration rate. More than 80% of the approximately 320,000 juveniles that migrated from mid-June to mid-August departed in three pulses lasting one or two days. Pulses of migration were associated with precipitation events, transient decreases in water temperature and transient increases in stream discharge. Diel timing of migration shifted over the summer. Early in the season most migration occurred around dawn; late in the season migration occurred at night. To identify individual characteristics associated with migratory behavior, we compared migrating juveniles that we collected as they were exiting Bride Lake to non-migrating juveniles that we collected from the center of the lake. Migrants were a non-random subset of the population; they were on average 1 – 12 mm larger, 2 – 14 d older, had grown more rapidly (11% greater length-at-age), and were in better condition (14% greater mass-at-length) than non-migrant fish. We infer that the amount of accumulated energy has a positive effect on the net benefit of migration at any time in the migratory season.

The Effects of a Physical Activity Intervention on the way Elementary School Girls Play

The rates of childhood and adolescent obesity in the United States have been increasing steadily. American youth continue to eat more (increase energy intake) and reduce physical activity (decrease energy expenditure) resulting in increased body weight and body fatness. One way to help reduce body weight in children is to increase physical activity. The purpose of this study was to determine if an age appropriate before-school physical activity intervention would be successful in increasing energy expenditure, intensity of activity, and behavioral approaches in overweight girls. The subjects were recruited from Parker Memorial School in Tolland, Connecticut, and two testing periods occurred over an eight week period. Video recordings of each physical activity session were analyzed to determine energy expenditure, exercise intensity, and behaviors during exercise. Data was evaluated for normal distribution, and paired t-tests were used to determine statistical significance. This study showed that the age appropriate before school physical activity intervention was able to increase energy expenditure and exercise intensity and have a positive effect on behavioral approaches in overweight girls.