Bayesian model averaging and identification of structural breaks in time series

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used for testing for multiple break points in univariate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over specifications including: stationary; stationary around trend and unit root models, each containing different types and number of breaks and different lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in all of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our findings regarding the existence of unit roots, having allowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work.

Transatlantic spaces: production, location and style in 1960s-1970s action-adventure TV series

This paper argues that transatlantic hybridity connects space, visual style and ideological point of view in British television action-adventure fiction of the 1960s–1970s. It analyses the relationship between the physical location of TV series production at Elstree Studios, UK, the representation of place in programmes, and the international trade in television fiction between the UK and USA. The TV series made at Elstree by the ITC and ABC companies and their affiliates linked Britishness with an international modernity associated with the USA, while also promoting national specificity. To do this, they drew on film production techniques that were already common for TV series production in Hollywood. The British series made at Elstree adapted versions of US industrial organization and television formats, and made programmes expected to be saleable to US networks, on the basis of British experiences in TV co-production with US companies and of the international cinema and TV market.

Polyunsaturated fatty acids of the n-6 and n-3 series: effects on postprandial lipid and apolipoprotein levels in healthy men

OBJECTIVE: The present study was carried out to determine effects of test meals of different fatty acid compositions on postprandial lipoprotein and apolipoprotein metabolism. DESIGN: The study was a randomized, single blind design. SETTING: The study was carried out in the Clinical Investigation Unit of the Royal Surrey County Hospital. SUBJECTS: Twelve male normal subjects with an average age of 22.4 +/- 1.4 years (mean +/- SD) were selected from the student population of the University of Surrey; one subject dropped out of the study because he found the test meal unpalatable. INTERVENTIONS: The subjects were given three evening test meals on three separate occasions, in which the oils used were either a mixed oil (rich in saturated fatty acids and approximated the fatty acid intake of the current UK diet), corn oil (rich in n-6 fatty acids), or fish oil (rich in n-3 fatty acids) 40 g of the oil under investigation were incorporated into a rice-based test meal. Triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins-triacylglycerol (TRL-TAG), TRL-cholesterol (TRL-cholesterol), plasma-TAG, plasma cholesterol (T-C), and serum apolipoprotein A-I and B (apo A-I and B) responses were measured. Postprandial responses were followed for 11 h. RESULTS: Postprandial plasma-TAG responses, calculated as incremental areas under the response curves (IAUC) were significantly reduced following the fish oil meal [365.5 +/- 145.4 mmol/l x min (mean +/- SD)[ compared with the mixed oil meal (552.0 +/- 141.7 mmol/l x min) (P < 0.05) and there was a strong trend towards the same direction in the TRL-TAG responses. In all instances, plasma-and TRL-TAG showed a biphasic response with increased concentrations occurring at 1h and between 3 and 7h postprandially. TRL-cholesterol, T-C, and serum apo A-I and B responses to the three meals were similar. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the view that fish oils decrease postprandial lipaemia and this may be an important aspect of their beneficial effects in reducing risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Further work is required to determine the mechanisms responsible for this effect.

Anxiety problems in young people with Asperger syndrome: a case series

It is now well established that the prevalence of mental health difficulties in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is considerably higher than in the general population. With recent estimates of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders being as high as one percent, increasing numbers of children and young people are presenting to local and specialist services with mental health problems in addition to a diagnosis of ASD. Many families report that the impact of the mental health problems can be as or more impairing than the autism spectrum difficulties themselves. Clinical services are frequently called upon to treat these difficulties; however, there is limited evidence for the effectiveness of treatments in this population. This paper reports a case series of children and adolescents with ASD and an anxiety disorder who were treated with a standard cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) rationale adapted to take account of the neuropsychological features of ASD. Common features of the presentation of the disorders and also treatment processes are discussed.

Spatial disaggregation and intensity correction of TRMM-based rainfall time series for hydrological applications in dryland catchments

A novel approach is presented for combining spatial and temporal detail from newly available TRMM-based data sets to derive hourly rainfall intensities at 1-km spatial resolution for hydrological modelling applications. Time series of rainfall intensities derived from 3-hourly 0.25° TRMM 3B42 data are merged with a 1-km gridded rainfall climatology based on TRMM 2B31 data to account for the sub-grid spatial distribution of rainfall intensities within coarse-scale 0.25° grid cells. The method is implemented for two dryland catchments in Tunisia and Senegal, and validated against gauge data. The outcomes of the validation show that the spatially disaggregated and intensity corrected TRMM time series more closely approximate ground-based measurements than non-corrected data. The method introduced here enables the generation of rainfall intensity time series with realistic temporal and spatial detail for dynamic modelling of runoff and infiltration processes that are especially important to water resource management in arid regions.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

Assessing levels of uncertainty in recent temperature time series

We examine to what degree we can expect to obtain accurate temperature trends for the last two decades near the surface and in the lower troposphere. We compare temperatures obtained from surface observations and radiosondes as well as satellite-based measurements from the Microwave Soundings Units (MSU), which have been adjusted for orbital decay and non-linear instrument-body effects, and reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In regions with abundant conventional data coverage, where the MSU has no major influence on the reanalysis, temperature anomalies obtained from microwave sounders, radiosondes and from both reanalyses agree reasonably. Where coverage is insufficient, in particular over the tropical oceans, large differences are found between the MSU and either reanalysis. These differences apparently relate to changes in the satellite data availability and to differing satellite retrieval methodologies, to which both reanalyses are quite sensitive over the oceans. For NCEP, this results from the use of raw radiances directly incorporated into the analysis, which make the reanalysis sensitive to changes in the underlying algorithms, e.g. those introduced in August 1992. For ERA, the bias-correction of the one-dimensional variational analysis may introduce an error when the satellite relative to which the correction is calculated is biased itself or when radiances change on a time scale longer than a couple of months, e.g. due to orbit decay. ERA inhomogeneities are apparent in April 1985, October/November 1986 and April 1989. These dates can be identified with the replacements of satellites. It is possible that a negative bias in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used in the reanalyses may have been introduced over the period of the satellite record. This could have resulted from a decrease in the number of ship measurements, a concomitant increase in the importance of satellite-derived SSTs, and a likely cold bias in the latter. Alternately, a warm bias in SSTs could have been caused by an increase in the percentage of buoy measurements (relative to deeper ship intake measurements) in the tropical Pacific. No indications for uncorrected inhomogeneities of land surface temperatures could be found. Near-surface temperatures have biases in the boundary layer in both reanalyses, presumably due to the incorrect treatment of snow cover. The increase of near-surface compared to lower tropospheric temperatures in the last two decades may be due to a combination of several factors, including high-latitude near-surface winter warming due to an enhanced NAO and upper-tropospheric cooling due to stratospheric ozone decrease.

Statistical analysis of eight surface ozone measurement series for various sites in Ireland

Data from various stations having different measurement record periods between 1988 and 2007 are analyzed to investigate the surface ozone concentration, long-term trends, and seasonal changes in and around Ireland. Time series statistical analysis is performed on the monthly mean data using seasonal and trend decomposition procedures and the Box-Jenkins approach (autoregressive integrated moving average). In general, ozone concentrations in the Irish region are found to have a negative trend at all sites except at the coastal sites of Mace Head and Valentia. Data from the most polluted Dublin city site have shown a very strong negative trend of −0.33 ppb/yr with a 95% confidence limit of 0.17 ppb/yr (i.e., −0.33 ± 0.17) for the period 2002−2007, and for the site near the city of Cork, the trend is found to be −0.20 ± 0.11 ppb/yr over the same period. The negative trend for other sites is more pronounced when the data span is considered from around the year 2000 to 2007. Rural sites of Wexford and Monaghan have also shown a very strong negative trend of −0.99 ± 0.13 and −0.58 ± 0.12, respectively, for the period 2000−2007. Mace Head, a site that is representative of ozone changes in the air advected from the Atlantic to Europe in the marine planetary boundary layer, has shown a positive trend of about +0.16 ± 0.04 ppb per annum over the entire period 1988−2007, but this positive trend has reduced during recent years (e.g., in the period 2001−2007). Cluster analysis for back trajectories are performed for the stations having a long record of data, Mace Head and Lough Navar. For Mace Head, the northern and western clean air sectors have shown a similar positive trend (+0.17 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the northern sector and +0.18 ± 0.02 ppb/yr for the western sector) for the whole period, but partial analysis for the clean western sector at Mace Head shows different trends during different time periods with a decrease in the positive trend since 1988 indicating a deceleration in the ozone trend for Atlantic air masses entering Europe.

A time-series method to identify and correct range sidelobes in meteorological radar data

The use of pulse compression techniques to improve the sensitivity of meteorological radars has become increasingly common in recent years. An unavoidable side-effect of such techniques is the formation of ‘range sidelobes’ which lead to spreading of information across several range gates. These artefacts are particularly troublesome in regions where there is a sharp gradient in the power backscattered to the antenna as a function of range. In this article we present a simple method for identifying and correcting range sidelobe artefacts. We make use of the fact that meteorological targets produce an echo which fluctuates at random, and that this echo, like a fingerprint, is unique to each range gate. By cross-correlating the echo time series from pairs of gates therefore we can identify whether information from one gate has spread into another, and hence flag regions of contamination. In addition we show that the correlation coefficients contain quantitative information about the fraction of power leaked from one range gate to another, and we propose a simple algorithm to correct the corrupted reflectivity profile.

Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey–Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M’ tests developed by Ng and Perron [Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519–1554] and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips–Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere [Cavaliere, G., 2005. Limited time series with a unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 907–945]. An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Compositional control of the electrical transport properties in the new series of thiospinels Ga1-xGexV4S8-delta (0 <=x<=1)

A new series of non-stoichiometric sulfides Ga1−xGexV4S8−δ (0≤x≤1; δ≤0.23) has been synthesized at high temperatures by heating stoichiometric mixtures of the elements in sealed quartz tubes. The samples have been characterized by powder X-ray diffraction, SQUID magnetometry and electrical transport-property measurements. Structural analysis reveals that a solid solution is formed throughout this composition range, whilst thermogravimetric data reveal sulfur deficiency of up to 2.9% in the quaternary phases. Magnetic measurements suggest that the ferromagnetic behavior of the end-member phase GaV4S8 is retained at x≤0.7; samples in this composition range showing a marked increase in magnetization at low temperatures. By contrast Ga0.25Ge0.75V4S8−δ appears to undergo antiferromagnetic ordering at ca. 15 K. All materials with x≠1 are n-type semiconductors whose resistivity falls by almost six orders of magnitude with decreasing Ga content, whilst the end-member phase GeV4S8−δ is a p-type semiconductor. The results demonstrate that the physical properties are determined principally by the degree of electron filling of narrow-band states arising from intracluster V–V interactions.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Authenticity and performance of class in British factual TV series

The chapter characterises British ‘Reality TV’ as a hybrid of factual and fictional television genres, as signaled by the more accurate genre designation ‘structured reality’ television. From the 1990s onwards, in order to develop programmes that are attractive to audiences and inexpensive to produce, programme makers have focused on hybrids of dramatic and documentary modes. This chapter argues that many recent Reality TV programmes privilege soap opera’s emphasis on character, storyline and performance. This affects the ways that class authenticity is understood, undermining factual programmes’ usual claim to legitimacy based on reference to a pre-existing reality, and transforming hierarchies that separate highly-valued from low-valued types of programme.