Agent-based hybrid framework for decision making on complex problems

Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of ‘reasoning with multimedia information’ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.

The use of contracting out : a case study of decision-making and organisational learning in local government

One objective of government is to provide services at least cost whilst maintaining or improving service quality. While this may be an important objective, questions are being asked whether services can be provided more efficiently and effectively by the private rather than by the government sector. The shift of service provision from the public to the private sector is known as outsourcing or contracting out. The objective in this study is to critically examine whether the contracting out of services by local government to the private sector is an efficient management practice.

The contracting out of Parks and Grounds Maintenance services for the City of Kingston in the State of Victoria, Australia, is used as an exploratory case study to identify the variables associated with management decision-making in the contracting out process. Factors relevant to the contracting out decision such as the criteria used in selecting a contractor; the evaluation of a contractor’s performance; and any subsequent changes to management practice relating to the contracting out of the services are identified and discussed.

Political forces were found to be an important consideration in the initial contracting out decision, and the selection of a contractor was influenced by the potential to avoid costs. It was also found that under-bidding and associated cost /profit constraints lead to contractors engaging in non-sustainable environmental practices which resulted in the degradation of the local government’s Parks and Gardens assets. A sustainable asset management philosophy as opposed to an avoidable costs approach now underpins the contracting out process to ensure the preservation of such assets. Further, administrative processes have been revised to make tender specifications more prescriptive, critical components of services have been brought back in-house, and management practices have been amended so that a greater degree of control is exercised over contractors’ activities.

Security as an element in environmental assessment and decision making

he prominence of global warming as an environmental issue has illustrated the close relationship between natural resources, ecosystems and global security. Whilst environmental decision making often uses techniques such as economic valuation and risk management, the security component is often not considered, at least not from a security analyst’s perspective. Yet environmental security considerations can be global, regional and/or national in impact. Environmental change and policy can effect human health and well being as well as initiating conflict; it can affect the existence of life itself. These aspects are firmly in the domain of the security discipline although the protection of the global ecosystem has not traditionally been considered by those who create security policy. The idea of environmental/ecological security ranges from the eco-centric approach which examines the impact of human activities that impact on the security of the natural systems to the more traditional anthropocentric perspectives that look at varied issues such as conflict caused by natural resource competition and environmental degradation, and the greening of military operations. This paper will assert that the inclusion of the security factor in policy creation and environmental assessments is essential to give richer solutions to these complex socio-economic and ecological situations. Systems theory over the last few decades has emphasised the inclusion of as many perspectives on messy problems as possible to provide truly systemic outcomes. It is posited that the addition of such concepts as threat analyses will produce more effective and sustainable outcomes.

The influence of need-for-cognition on ethical decision-making in marketing

The research established that the work-related norms of marketers and their socialisation into the marketing profession are influenced beneficially by their need-for-cognition. The research revealed contradictions between corporate codes of ethics and the values espoused by professional associations. Better ways of managing corporate ethical standards and behaviour are suggested.

A critical review of multi-criteria decision making methods with special reference to forest management and planning

This paper provides a review of research contributions on forest management and planning using multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) based on an exhaustive literature survey. The review primarily focuses on the application aspects  highlighting theoretical underpinnings and controversies. It also examines the nature of the problems addressed and incorporation of risk into forest  management and planning decision making. The MCDM techniques covered in this review belong to several schools of thought. For each technique, a variety of empirical applications including recent studies has been reviewed. More than 60 individual studies were reviewed and classified by the method used, country of origin, number and type of criteria and options evaluated. The review serves as a guide to those interested in how to use a particular MCDM approach. Based on the review, some recent trends and future research directions are also highlighted.

Accounting : a framework for decision making

Thoroughly updated and re-sequenced in response to market feedback, Accounting: A Framework for Decision Making is an ideal first year accounting principles text. Presented in a straightforward style, the third edition focuses on key concepts and illustrates each concept with clear graphical or textual explanations and examples. The latest AASB standards and accounting techniques underpin the content throughout and new and revised questions have been added to the end of chapter material. With an accessible technical focus, Accounting: A Framework for Decision Making has a clear and broad content structure that means the book lends itself to both majors and non-majors courses.

Game situation information in video-based perceptual decision making : the influence of criticality of decisions

This study examined the effects of game situation information, manipulated in terms of time and score, on decisions made in a video-based perceptual test in basketball. The participants were undergraduate university students (n=159) who viewed 21 offensive basketball plays, under two test conditions (low decision criticality; high decision criticality). To manipulate the conditions, prior to each clip, the
participants were presented with a description of the remaining time and score differential. High decision criticality situations were characterised by a remaining time of 60 seconds or less and score differentials of 2 points or less. Low decision criticality situations were characterised by remaining time of 5 minutes or more and score differentials of 5 points or more. The participants indicated their decision (pass, shoot, dribble) after the visual display had been occluded for each clip. The results indicated that decision profiles differed under the low and high decision criticality conditions. More pass decisions were made under high decision criticality situations and more shoot decisions under low decision criticality situations. These variations differed according to the type of main sport played but not for the basketball competition level. It was concluded that game situation information does influence decision making and should be considered in video-based testing and training.

A critical evaluation of the standardisation potential of business plan evaluation aids (BPEA) used in venture capital investment decision-making

The research objective was to perform a critical evaluation and comparison of four, representative Business Plan Evaluation Aids (BPEA) to facilitate constructive discussion of the proposition that greater standardisation of venture capital decision-making might be both desirable and possible.

The four BPEA were systematically compared using a structured, taxonomic process employing seven key criteria. The evidence of this investigation suggests a clear superiority for BPEAs, which are based on the known attributes of successful ventures and use actuarial modelling. Discussion centred on the importance of using BPEAs in a quest for greater consistency of venture capital investment decision-making.