Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

O terciário (re) desenhando a periferia: a região administrativa norte de Natal/RN, na última década do século XX, servicializada na Av. Dr. João Medeiros Filho

The tertiary sector has been (re)defining and (re)qualifying, in an impacting way, the urban spaces in the cities, introducing new elements for the discussion of the relationship center/periphery. In Natal, as an inducing economic activity of its development, it conforms to the new needs of the capital, expanding, being materialized through several processes and spatial forms. We aim at analyzing one of those processes, which has taken its Northern Administrative Area to (re)define the design of its urban space, through the actions developed by the agents involved with the spatialization of the tertiary activities, at the same time as it redimensions its role as a periphery of Natal, contributing to the study of the recent and growing transformations of the Brazilian capitals. The studied district corresponds to 39.4% of the municipal area and, until recently, was composed by precarious reproduction spaces, unprovided of relevant economical activities. After the boom of the development of extensive housing complexes by SFH/BNH, the area, gradually stopped being a dependent area, and it imposed itself as an economically participant region, with the increase of the trade and services sectors, as well as a favorable place for the appearance of new activities. Its reflexes are noticeable in the achieved spatial configuration. As the main road to induct changes, Dr. João Medeiros Filho Avenue presents these new tendencies in the production of the intraurban space, concentrating the largest goods and services equipments of the area, through investments of the private and public sectors, which guarantee the capital allocation for the construction of a new centrality

Descrição do ciclo gametogênico do ouriço-branco, Tripneustes ventricosus (Lamarck, 1816), no Arquipélago de Fernando de Noronha PE, Brasil

Sea urchins are common benthic organisms on coastal ecosystems of tropical and temperate shallow waters. The impact of sea urchins populations in shore communities is density-dependent, and therefore, knowledge of the life history of these animals is important to understand these interactions. Between 2000 and 2005 a population boom of Tripneustes ventricosus was observed in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. In 2004 a research program was started to monitor the population dynamics of T. ventricosus in the archipelago, when it noted a lack of basic information on the biology and reproduction of this species, despite its broad geographic distribution and economic importance in parts of its occurrence. In this context, this work focuses on the reproductive biology of T. ventricosus with emphasis on the description of the gametogenic stages. Between December 2006 and July 2007, ten urchins were collected by snorkeling in two sites of the archipelago, totaling 120 individuals. Gametogenic stages were described for both sexes through microscopic analysis, and were defined as: Recovery, Growing, Premature, Mature and Spawning. Results showed increasing in Gonad index throughout of months of sampling and suggest that the reproductive cycle of the species in the archipelago is annual

Uniformidade de deposição da calda de pulverização de herbicidas em barra lateral protegida com diferentes combinações de pontas de pulverização

O presente trabalho objetivou estudar a uniformidade de distribuição da calda de pulverização contendo herbicidas, em culturas perenes arbustivas, utilizando combinações de pontas de pulverização em barra lateral protegida, conduzida a pequena distância do alvo, na linha de culturas perenes arbustivas. Para isso, foi desenvolvido um programa computacional que permite simular a sobreposição do leque de pulverização, da porção protegida da barra e do leque formado pela ponta de pulverização do bico mais extremo da barra, de modo diferente dos demais programas. Após a seleção das melhores combinações de pontas de pulverização por meio de simulação dos padrões de deposição da pulverização das pontas individuais e dos coeficientes de variação menores que 10%, algumas dessas combinações foram testadas em campo, aplicando-se um herbicida sistêmico (glyphosate) e outro com ação de contato (paraquat). Os resultados indicaram que o programa computacional desenvolvido pode constituir-se em um auxiliar valioso para a seleção das melhores combinações de pontas de pulverização. em aplicações tanto do herbicida glyphosate quanto do paraquat, com volumes de calda mais reduzidos,abaixo de 100 L ha-1, destacaram-se como arranjos mais eficientes: a) pontas TT110015 distanciadas de 52,5 cm entre si, combinadas com a ponta TK-0,5 na extremidade da barra a 50 cm do último bico, operando na velocidade de 5 km h-1 e pressão de 103 kPa (15 lbf pol-2), com distância de caminhamento do tronco da árvore de 20 cm ; b) pontas SMCE2 distanciadas de 15 cm entre si, combinadas com a ponta TK-0,5 na extremidade da barra de 20 cm do último bico, operando na velocidade de 4 km h-1 e pressão de 414 kPa (60 lbf pol-2), com distância de caminhamento do tronco da árvore de 30 cm ; e c) pontas TLX-2 distanciadas de 15 cm entre si, combinadas com a ponta TK-0,5 na extremidade da barra de 20 cm do último bico, operando à velocidade de 5 km h-1 e pressão de 414 kPa (60 lbf pol-2), com distância de caminhamento do tronco da árvore de 30 cm. A velocidade de deslocamento do pulverizador de 5 km h-1 proporcionou melhores condições para que os herbicidas estudados apresentassem melhor controle de plantas daninhas, quando comparada com a velocidade de deslocamento do pulverizador de 4 km h-1.

Avaliação do padrão de distribuição de bicos para aplicação de herbicidas: efeitos da altura do alvo nos padrões de distribuição

A avaliação do desempenho de barras de pulverização pode ser feita com base no padrão de distribuição ou deposição do líquido de cada bico individual em mesa de prova. Neste trabalho, compararam-se os padrões de deposição produzidos por diversos bicos em várias alturas. Os resultados mostraram melhor desempenho para os bicos TF e XR, seguido por TJ60-8010, TJ60-8006 e FL. Os bicos TJ60-11006 e TQ mostraram problemas localizados e TK foi considerado o pior entre os testados. Foram propostos modelos para representar as relações entre estatísticas obtidas no padrão e na altura do alvo.

Avaliação do desempenho de bicos para aplicação de herbicidas

A avaliação do desempenho de barras de pulverização pode ser feita a partir do padrão de distribuição ou deposição do líquido de cada bico individual em mesa de prova. Neste trabalho comparam-se os padrões de deposição produzidos por diversos bicos em várias alturas. Os resultados mostraram melhores desempenho para os bicos TF e XR, seguidos pelos bicos TJ60-8010, TJ60-8006 e FL. Os bicos TJ60-11006 e os TQ mostraram problemas localizados e os bicos TK foram considerados os piores entre os testados. Relações entre o espaçamento entre bicos e altura do alvo para as quais os coeficientes de variação apresentam valores satisfatórios foram propostas.

A proposta do estado empregador de ultima instância e o experimentalismo democrático: uma reflexão teórica sobre a compatibilidade desses dois programas

This paper aims to make a theoretical reflection on the theoretical compatibility between the program State Employer of Last Resort (ELR) and the Democratic experimentalism (ED). The ED arises in political thought as an alternative to neo-liberal and social democratic programs in order to rescue the discussion about the institutional organization of society and the market economy. About the involuntary unemployment, it proposes tax changes incidents on payroll and proposes work fronts to the most vulnerable or poorly trained. The hypothesis of this paper is that this approach is compatible with the ELR program, the post- Keynesian line. The ELR is presented as transgression of the mainstream of economic thought by proposing that the State acts as guarantor of employment, working as a stabilizing anchor for the economy. On the edge, the ELR proposes eliminate completely involuntary unemployment. The implementation of the ELR, however, requires the construction of institutions that aim to remake the market economy, as well as deepen and energize politics and democracy, goals that are part of the ED program. Thus, the ED would, in theory, an environment conducive to innovative policies guarantors of training and occupation of the individual, essential for their emancipation institutional environment. In Brazil, which has serious infrastructure problems and qualification of manpower, such a program has enormous potential benefit. However when transposed to the Northeast of Brazil through the Plan for the region based on the principles of the ED and the hypothetical coupling to the ELR could not confirm or reject the hypothesis sub-compatibility of these two theoretical frameworks. The findings point to a partial convergence between these two programs

A literatura na sala de aula: uma alternativa de ensino transdisciplinar

The present thesis studies the appropriate education of the literary gender based in an approach of trans-disciplinary teaching. The main objectives will be to survey the degree of trans-disciplinarity of the literary reading in classrooms and to propose the literary reading as an alternative of trans-disciplinary teaching. The theoretical contributions, which sustain the lines of central argument of this thesis, are related to the critical theories on the epistemological and methodological crisis in the speech of the modernity; the emergency of an emerging paradigm under the optics of the speech of the post-modernity; the theories concerned to curriculums and their interrelations with the school teaching; the theories of the complexity and of the inter and trans-disciplinarity; theories of the reading and of the literature, more precisely the literary semiology and the aesthetics of the acceptance; theories about the pedagogic mediation starting from presupposed and trans-disciplinary principles. The methodological foundations, of the type inter and trans-disciplinary, which anchor the approach of the study is related to a line of qualitative analyses applied the teaching-learning situation accomplished during the data collection during the empiric stage of the research. The analyzed corpus is composed of episodes originated from the classes with literary texts accomplished in the months of June and December of 2005, under the orientation of a complex and trans-disciplinary didacticism. The involved subjects are students in the age group of 9 and 13 years of age from a public school in the county of Cabo de Santo Agostinho, in the State of Pernambuco. Starting from the discoveries found during the research, so much bibliographical, as that of the field, it is possible to conclude, among other things, that the literary reading, when mediated accordingly in the classroom, is a trans-disciplinary object of high degree, because the literary reading can allow and make it possible to the real reader, through a necessary process of speculation on life and its unfolding, solid reflection around the individual and collective occurrences so much in simpler instances as in more complex ones

Pressão de aplicação com pulverizador de barra e eficiência de bioinseticidas fúngicos comerciais

Bioinseticidas fúngicos são aplicados com pulverizadores convencionais e algumas características destes equipamentos podem não ser adequadas e afetar a eficiência dos bioinseticidas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar se pressões usuais, em aplicações com o pulverizador de barra, podem afetar a ação inseticida de conídios de Beauveria bassiana e Metarhizium anisopliae, componentes de produtos comerciais brasileiros. Para isso, suspensões aquosas de três bioinseticidas foram submetidas à passagem pelo equipamento em três pressões (20, 40 e 60 lbf pol-2) e avaliadas quanto ao rompimento, à viabilidade e à virulência dos conídios. Avaliou-se a viabilidade em lâminas de microscopia cobertas com meio de cultura, após incubação a 26±0,5ºC e fotoperíodo de 12 horas. A concentração foi determinada por meio de contagens em câmara de Neubauer e a virulência foi avaliada para lagartas de Diatraea saccharalis. Não foram encontradas, nos três produtos, influências significativas em nenhum dos parâmetros. Nas pressões avaliadas, a aplicação com o pulverizador de barra não reduz a viabilidade e nem a virulência dos conídios dos bioinseticidas testados, tampouco provoca destruição dos conídios.

Nota científica: padrão de distribuição de alguns bicos hidráulicos

O conhecimento sobre o padrão de deposição de bicos pulverizados é essencial para uma boa seleção e posicionamento dos mesmos em um equipamento pulverizador. O presente trabalho foi conduzido com o objetivo de se conhecer os padrões de deposição de alguns bicos pulverizadores disponíveis no mercado brasileiro. Dois ou três exemplares de cada tipo de bico foram testados em uma mesa de prova, constituída de uma chapa inclinada corrugada, construída segundo as especificações da Organização Mundial da Saúde para testes de bicos pulverizadores. Todos os bicos foram testados à pressão de 276 kN/m2 (40 libras/p ol2), com exceção dos bicos de impacto (Polijet) que foram testado s à pressão de 97 kN/m2 (14 libras/ pol 2). Ressalvando-se o pequeno número de exemplares testados por cada tipo, os resultados indicaram que: a) - existem diferenças entre a vazão estipulada pelos fabricantes e a vazão real, sendo esta diferença, acentuada para alguns casos; b) - foram observadas diferenças apreciáveis nos padrões de deposição entre as repetições nos bicos Polijet azul e Polijet vermelho (ICI) e no bico JD 14 -2 (Jacto) ; c) - os bicos 80 02 e 11003 (Spraying Systems), 80-03 e X3 (Hatsuta), JD 14-1 (Jacto) e Albuz verde (Albuz) apresentaram padrão de deposição uniforme entre as repetições; d) - considerando as variações observadas recomendam-se cuidadosos testes dos bicos, principalmente naqueles empregados nos trabalhos de experimentação, para possibilitar a escolha de um lote uniforme, para melhor controle da distribuição e dosagem dos produtos pulverizados.

Distribución volumétrica, simetría del chorro y diámetro de gotas de las boquillas TF-VS2

El conocimiento de las características de las diferentes boquillas de pulverización tiene una importancia imprescindible para la adecuada y correcta recomendación de su uso. El objetivo de este trabajo fue determinar el espaciamiento máximo en la barra horizontal de pulverización, la simetría del chorro y el diámetro de gotas en boquillas de pulverización TF-VS2. El trabajo fue realizado en mesa de deposición, en donde fueron utilizadas las presiones de 100, 200 y 300 kPa en las alturas de trabajo de 40 y 50 cm. La simetría del chorro fue determinada en función de dos metodologías (empírica y trigonométrica). También se determinó el tamaño de las gotas, utilizando el método de difracción de rayos laser, en función de dos caldos de pulverización constituidos por agua y por agua con adyuvante en las tres presiones de trabajo ya descritas. Los espaciamientos máximos entre las boquillas en la barra de pulverización no pueden rebasar los 70 y 82 cm, admitiéndose el CV de un 10% para las alturas de 40 y de 50 cm respectivamente. La mayor presión proporcionó el menor diámetro mediano volumétrico (DMV) y la peor uniformidad de gotas, además del mayor porcentaje de gotas susceptibles a deriva, así como también aumentó la simetría entre los chorros.

Distribuição volumétrica e diâmetro de gotas de pontas de pulverização de energia hidráulica para controle de corda-de-viola

As pontas de pulverização são responsáveis pela formação das gotas, e cada ponta apresenta características próprias relacionadas ao espectro de gotas e perfil de deposição, específicas para determinados alvos. Este trabalho teve o objetivo de caracterizar o diâmetro e a uniformidade das gotas e o perfil de distribuição volumétrica das pontas de pulverização AI 110015 e TTI 110015, bem como seu efeito sobre a mortalidade de corda-de-viola, com herbicida pré-emergente, associado ou não a adjuvantes. Avaliou-se o número de plantas emergidas e os pesos secos da parte aérea e radicular das plantas. Os perfis de distribuição volumétrica para a altura de 40 cm foram avaliados em mesa de deposição. A partir dos perfis de distribuição, simulou-se o padrão de deposição ao longo da barra de pulverização. O espectro do diâmetro de gotas foi determinado em analisador de tamanho de partículas por difração de luz laser . O herbicida diuron + hexazinona foi eficiente no controle em préemergência de corda-de-viola, podendo ser utilizado polimetil siloxano organomodificado ou óleo mineral como adjuvantes, associados às pontas de pulverização AI 110015 ou TTI 110015. O uso de adjuvantes proporcionou aumento no diâmetro mediano volumétrico e redução na porcentagem de gotas com diâmetro inferior a 100 µm. O espaçamento sugerido entre os bicos na barra de pulverização foi de 70 cm para o modelo AI 110015 e 80 cm para o modelo TTI 110015.