Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Interactions among endocrinology, seasonal reproductive cycles and the nesting biology of the female green sea turtle

We collected data on plasma levels of testosterone+5a-dihydrotestosterone (T+DHT) and corticosterone (CORT) from adult female green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) from southern Queensland during distinct stages of their reproductive cycle. Those females capable of breeding in a given year had elevated plasma steroid levels (T+DHT 0.91 +/- 0.08; CORT 1.05 +/- 0.29 ng/ml), associated with follicular development, until courtship began in October. At the beginning of the nesting season in November plasma levels of 2 CORT were related to when the female first nested (r(2) = 0.06; F = 10.45; P = 0.01). However, they were not correlated with the number of clutches a female laid in that season (F = 3.65; P = 0.08). We repeatedly sampled 23 turtles over the nesting season and profiled changes in steroids immediately following oviposition of each clutch. Levels of T+DHT (range 0.41-0.58 ng/ml) and CORT (range 2.13-2.81 ng/ml) were similar through the early stages of the nesting season and inter-nesting period, and declined to near basal levels (T+DHT 0.37 +/- 0.03 and CORT 1.85 +/- ng/ml) following the last clutch for the season. Steroid hormone levels were also low (T+DHT 0.38 +/- 0.16; CORT 0.46 +/- 0.21 ng/ml) in four independent post-breeding (atretic) females; samples for these females were taken at a time when body condition was presumably at the lowest for the season. Subtle changes in the nesting environment, such as variation in nesting habitat or the time of night that nesting occurred, were associated with a small and slow CORT increase. We suggest CORT is increased in nesting females to assist in lipid transfer to prepare the ovarian follicles and/or the reproductive organs for ovulation.

Robust model-order reduction of complex biological processes

This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior of argon gas release from manganese oxide minerals as revealed by Ar-40/Ar-39 laser incremental heating analysis

Manganese oxides in association with paleo-weathering may provide significant insights into the multiple factors affecting the formation and evolution of weathering profiles, such as temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity. Laser probe step-heating analysis of supergene hollandite and cryptomelane samples collected from central Queensland, Australia, yield well-defined plateaus and consistent isochron ages, confirming the feasibility, dating very-fined supergene manganese oxides by Ar-40/(39) Ar technique. Two distinct structural sites hosting Ar isotopes can be identified in light of their degassing behaviors obtained by incremental heating analyses. The first site, releasing its gas fraction at the laser power 0.2-0.4 W, yields primarily Ar-40(atm), Ar-38(atm), and Ar-36(atm), (atmospheric Ar isotopes). The second sites yield predominantly Ar-40* (radiogenic Ar-40), Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) (nucleogenic components), at similar to0.5-1.0 W. There is no significant Ar gas released at the laser power higher than 1.0 W, indicating the breakdown of the tunnel sites hosting the radiogenic and nucleogenic components. The excellent match between the degassing behaviors of Ar-40*, Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) suggests that these isotopes occupy the same crystallographic sites and that Ar-39(K) loss from the tunnel site by recoil during neutron irradiation and/or bake-out procedure preceding isotopic analysis does not occur. Present investigation supports that neither the overwhelming atmospheric Ar-40 nor the very-fined nature of the supergene manganese oxides poses problems in extracting meaningful weathering geo-chronological information by analyzing supergene manganese oxides minerals.

A new level of conotoxin diversity, a non-native disulfide bond connectivity in alpha-conotoxin AuIB reduces structural definition but increases biological activity

alpha-Conotoxin AuIB and a disulfide bond variant of AuIB have been synthesized to determine the role of disulfide bond connectivity on structure and activity. Both of these peptides contain the 15 amino acid sequence GCCSYPPCFATNPDC, with the globular (native) isomer having the disulfide connectivity Cys(2-8 and 3-15) and the ribbon isomer having the disulfide connectivity Cys(2-15 and 3-8). The solution structures of the peptides were determined by NAIR spectroscopy, and their ability to block the nicotinic acetylcholine receptors on dissociated neurons of the rat parasympathetic ganglia was examined. The ribbon disulfide isomer, although having a less well defined structure, is surprisingly found to have approximately 10 times greater potency than the native peptide. To our knowledge this is the first demonstration of a non-native disulfide bond isomer of a conotoxin exhibiting greater biological activity than the native isomer.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

Conspicuous males suffer higher predation risk: visual modelling and experimental evidence from lizards

Colour pattern variation is a striking and widespread phenomenon. Differential predation risk between individuals is often invoked to explain colour variation, but empirical support for this hypothesis is equivocal. We investigated differential conspicuousness and predation risk in two species of Australian rock dragons, Ctenophorus decresii and C. vadnappa. To humans, the coloration of males of these species varies between 'bright' and 'dull'. Visual modelling based on objective colour measurements and the spectral sensitivities of avian visual pigments showed that dragon colour variants are differentially conspicuous to the visual system of avian predators when viewed against the natural background. We conducted field experiments to test for differential predation risk, using plaster models of 'bright' and 'dull' males. 'Bright' models were attacked significantly more often than 'dull' models suggesting that differential conspicuousness translates to differential predation risk in the wild. We also examined the influence of natural geographical range on predation risk. Results from 22 localities suggest that predation rates vary according to whether predators are familiar with the prey species. This study is among the first to demonstrate both differential conspicuousness and differential predation risk in the wild using an experimental protocol. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Testosterone is correlated with courtship but not aggression in the tropical buff-banded rail, Gallirallus philippensis

Past studies into the roles of testosterone in birds have focused on species that occur in temperate regions. In such species, plasma testosterone levels are high during the establishment of territories in the spring and are associated with increased aggression. In contrast to most temperate species, tropical birds frequently defend territories year-round, during which time territoriality often occurs in a nonsexual context. The few studies that have been carried out on tropical birds show lower levels of circulating testosterone than occur in their temperate counterparts. In some year-round territorial tropical species, testosterone and aggression are dissociated, while in other species testosterone still plays a role in regulating aggression. This study examined the relationship between aggression and plasma testosterone levels in a year-round territorial, subtropical population of the buff-banded rail with characteristics typical of tropical species. Peak testosterone levels were substantially lower than those found in temperate species. Males displayed a seasonal peak in plasma testosterone level when their partners were most likely to be fertile. At other times, testosterone levels were mostly undetectable, despite year-round territoriality. We found that T levels increased with courtship behavior but showed no relationship with aggression, supporting the hypothesis that dissociation between testosterone and territoriality may be widespread among tropical avian taxa. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Play Preferences and Behavior of Preschool Children with Autistic Spectrum Disorder in the Clinical Environment

The play of children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) is a valuable medium for assessment and intervention, and its analysis has the potential to aid diagnosis. This study investigated spontaneous play behavior and play object preferences for 24 preschool children with ASD in a typical occupational therapy clinical environment. Play behavior was rated and choice of play object noted at 10-second intervals from a 15-minute video recording of unstructured play. Statistical analyses indicated that play behavior was consistent with descriptions in the literature. In addition, the children demonstrated clear preferences for play objects in the form of popular characters (e.g., Thomas the Tank Engine) and those with sensorimotor properties. We propose that the inclusion of preferred play objects in a clinical environment may increase intrinsic motivation to play, and thereby enhance assessment and intervention.

Initiation of biological agents in patients with ankylosing spondylitis: results of a Delphi study by the ASAS Group

Background: There is ample evidence of important symptomatic efficacy of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) inhibition in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Moreover, studies suggest that anti-TNF could be considered as the first disease controlling antirheumatic treatment (DC-ART) for AS. Objective: To determine precisely which patients with AS are most likely to benefit from anti-TNFalpha treatment because of the cost and possible long term side effects of such treatment. Methods: Assessment in Ankylosing Spondylitis (ASAS) members were asked to use a Delphi technique to name the characteristics of patients with AS for whom they would start DC-ART, in three different clinical presentations (isolated axial involvement, peripheral arthritis, enthesitis). Results: Among the 62 invited ASAS members, more than 50% actively participated in the four phases of definition according to the Delphi technique. For each of the three clinical presentations, a combination of five to six domains was proposed, with an evaluation instrument and a cut off point defining a minimum level of activity for each domain. Conclusion: This study provides a profile for a patient with AS for considering initiation of biological agents that reflects the opinion of the ASAS members, using a Delphi exercise. Further studies are required to assess their relevance and their consistency with clinical practice.

Promiscuous CTL recognition of viral epitopes on multiple human leukocyte antigens: Biological validation of the proposed HLA A24 supertype

Multiple HLA class I alleles can bind peptides with common sequence motifs due to structural similarities in the peptide binding cleft, and these groups of alleles have been classified into supertypes. Nine major HLA supertypes have been proposed, including an A24 supertype that includes A*2301, A*2402, and A*3001. Evidence for this A24 supertype is limited to HLA sequence homology and/or similarity in peptide binding motifs for the alleles. To investigate the immunological relevance of this proposed supertype, we have examined two viral epitopes (from EBV and CMV) initially defined as HLA-A*2301-binding peptides. The data clearly demonstrate that each peptide could be recognized by CTL clones in the context of A*2301 or A*2402; thus validating the inclusion of these three alleles within an A24 supertype. Furthermore, CTL responses to the EBV epitope were detectable in both A*2301(+) and A*2402(+) individuals who had been previously exposed to this virus. These data substantiate the biological relevance of the A24 supertype, and the identification of viral epitopes with the capacity to bind promiscuously across this supertype could aid efforts to develop CTL-based vaccines or immunotherapy. The degeneracy in HLA restriction displayed by some T cells in this study also suggests that the dogma of self-MHC restriction needs some refinement to accommodate foreign peptide recognition in the context of multiple supertype alleles.

Mosquito host-feeding patterns and implications for Japanese encephalitis virus transmission in northern Australia and Papua New Guinea

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus spread to northern Australia during the 1990s, transmitted by Culex annulirostris Skuse and other mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). To determine the relative importance of various hosts for potential vectors of JE virus, we investigated the host-feeding patterns of mosquitoes in northern Australia and Western Province of Papua New Guinea, with particular attention to pigs, Sus scrofa L. - the main amplifying host of JE virus in South-east Asia. Mosquitoes were collected by CDC light traps baited with dry ice and 1-octen-3-ol, run 16.00-08.00 hours, mostly set away from human habitations, if possible in places frequented by feral pigs. Bloodmeals of 2569 mosquitoes, representing 15 species, were identified by gel diffusion assay. All species had fed mostly on mammals: only 30%) were trapped where domestic pigs were kept close to human habitation. From seven of eight locations on the Australian mainland, the majority of Cx. annulirostris had obtained their bloodmeals from marsupials, probably the Agile wallaby Macropus agilis (Gould). Overall proportions of mosquito bloodmeals identified as marsupial were 60% from the Gulf Plains region of Australia, 78% from the Cape York Peninsula and 64% from the Daru area of Papua New Guinea. Thus, despite the abundance of feral pigs in northern Australia, our findings suggest that marsupials divert host-seeking Cx. annulirostris away from pigs. As marsupials are poor JE virus hosts, the prevalence of marsupials may impede the establishment of JE virus in Australia.