Improvement of a test-chamber for behavioral studies on adult females of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (Diptera, Culicidae)

A test-chamber (K&L-Chamber) made of cardboard and acrylic plastic, and consisting in four sections (A, B, C and D) was developed by Klowden & Lea (1978) for Aedes aegypti host-seeking behavior studies. Later, Foster & Lutes (1985) also used an identical chamber to successfully evaluate the efficacy of electronic repellers. It was described here a modified K&L-Chamber for behavioral studies of Ae. aegypti adults. The chamber was made in polystyrene, consisting of three sections (A, B and C) and using a human hand and a fluorescent lamp as stimulus to attract the mosquitoes. The suitability of the present test-chamber was validated assaying 80 replicates and releasing 10 Ae. aegypti females in each replicate. The females were released in the section A and allowed to fly to the section C. A mean of 96.0% (s.e. 0.213) Ae. aegypti females successfully reached section C. The present test-chamber is cheaper and easier to handle and as efficient as K&L-Chamber, when compared to Foster & Lutes (1978) that noticed 93.8% of Ae. aegypti reaching the trap section.

Credit cycles in theory and experiment

We test in the laboratory the potential of evolutionary dynamics as predictor of actual behavior. To this end, we propose an asymmetricgame -which we interpret as a borrowerlender relation-, study itsevolutionary dynamics in a random matching set-up, and tests itspredictions. The model provides conditions for the existence ofcredit markets and credit cycles. The theoretical predictions seemto be good approximations of the experimental results.

Financing constraints, irreversibility and investment dynamics

We develop a model of an industry with many heterogeneous firms that face both financingconstraints and irreversibility constraints. The financing constraint implies that firmscannot borrow unless the debt is secured by collateral; the irreversibility constraint thatthey can only sell their fixed capital by selling their business. We use this model to examinethe cyclical behavior of aggregate fixed investment, variable capital investment, and outputin the presence of persistent idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Our model yields threemain results. First, the effect of the irreversibility constraint on fixed capital investmentis reinforced by the financing constraint. Second, the effect of the financing constraint onvariable capital investment is reinforced by the irreversibility constraint. Finally, the interactionbetween the two constraints is key for explaining why input inventories and materialdeliveries of US manufacturing firms are so volatile and procyclical, and also why they arehighly asymmetrical over the business cycle.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

Demographic and behavioral factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Switzerland.

Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Early disturbances of gamma band dynamics in mild cognitive impairment.

Recent studies have indicated that gamma band oscillations participate in the temporal binding needed for the synchronization of cortical networks involved in short-term memory and attentional processes. To date, no study has explored the temporal dynamics of gamma band in the early stages of dementia. At baseline, gamma band analysis was performed in 29 cases with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) during the n-back task. Based on phase diagrams, multiple linear regression models were built to explore the relationship between the cognitive status and gamma oscillation changes over time. Individual measures of phase diagram complexity were made using fractal dimension values. After 1 year, all cases were assessed neuropsychologically using the same battery. A total of 16 MCI patients showed progressive cognitive decline (PMCI) and 13 remained stable (SMCI). When adjusted for gamma values at lag -2, and -3 ms, PMCI cases displayed significantly lower average changes in gamma values than SMCI cases both in detection and 2-back tasks. Gamma fractal dimension of PMCI cases displayed significantly higher gamma fractal dimension values compared to SMCI cases. This variable explained 11.8% of the cognitive variability in this series. Our data indicate that the progression of cognitive decline in MCI is associated with early deficits in temporal binding that occur during the activation of selective attention processes.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Alticini (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) in a fragment of Araucaria Forest in the state of Parana, Brazil

Alticini fauna from five areas, two with different types of management (Borda and Araucaria) and three with different levels of conservation (Fase 1, Fase 2 and Fase 3), in the Araucaria Forest of the Parana was captured with malaise traps. The material was collected weekly, from September/1999 to August/2001, in the Parque Estadual of Vila Velha, Ponta Grossa. 1,891 individuals of 106 Alticini species were collected with only seven species common to all areas. Despite the proximity between sampling areas, the number of species shared between pairs of areas was low, not reaching 40%, with the Araucaria and Fase 1 areas being the most similar. The community structure of the areas Fase 1 and Fase 2 were most related. Fase 1, in initial stage of succession, showed the largert variation in the abundance and richness from one year to another.

The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

Minimum price variations, time priority and quotes dynamics

We analyze the impact of a minimum price variation (tick) and timepriority on the dynamics of quotes and the trading costs when competitionfor the order flow is dynamic. We find that convergence to competitiveoutcomes can take time and that the speed of convergence is influencedby the tick size, the priority rule and the characteristics of the orderarrival process. We show also that a zero minimum price variation is neveroptimal when competition for the order flow is dynamic. We compare thetrading outcomes with and without time priority. Time priority is shownto guarantee that uncompetitive spreads cannot be sustained over time.However it can sometimes result in higher trading costs. Empiricalimplications are proposed. In particular, we relate the size of thetrading costs to the frequency of new offers and the dynamics of theinside spread to the state of the book.

Foreign ownership and productivity dynamics

In analyzing the distinctive contribution of foreign subsidiaries anddomestic firms to productivity growth in aggregate Belgian manufacturing,this paper shows that foreign ownership is an important source of firmheterogeneity affecting productivity dynamics. Foreign firms havecontributed disproportionately large to aggregate productivity growth,but more importantly reallocation processes differ significantly betweenthe groups of foreign subsidiaries and domestic firms.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.