Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data: forecasting output growth in the United States

Many macroeconomic series, such as U.S. real output growth, are sampled quarterly, although potentially useful predictors are often observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth. The MIDAS specification used in the comparison uses a novel way of including an autoregressive term. We find that the use of monthly data on the current quarter leads to significant improvement in forecasting current and next quarter output growth, and that MIDAS is an effective way to exploit monthly data compared with alternative methods.

Cross-cultural generality and specificity in self-regulation: avoidance personal goals and multiple aspects of well-being in the United States and Japan

The authors examined avoidance personal goals as concurrent (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) predictors of multiple aspects of well-being in the United States and Japan. In both studies, participants adopted more avoidance personal goals in Japan relative to the United States. Both studies also demonstrated that avoidance personal goals were significant negative predictors of the most relevant aspects of well-being in each culture. Specifically, avoidance personal goals were negative predictors of intrapersonal and eudaimonic well-being in the United States and were negative predictors of interpersonal and eudaimonic well-being in Japan. The findings clarify and extend puzzling findings from prior empirical work in this area, and raise provocative possibilities about the nature of avoidance goal pursuit.

British working-class household composition, labour supply, and commercial leisure participation during the 1930s

The early twentieth century constituted the heyday of the ‘breadwinner–homemaker’ household, characterized by a high degree of intra-household functional specialization between paid and domestic work according to age, gender, and marital status. This article examines the links between formal workforce participation and access to resources for individualized discretionary spending in British working-class households during the late 1930s, via an analysis of household leisure expenditures. Leisure spending is particularly salient to intra-household resource allocation, as it constitutes one of the most highly prioritized areas of individualized expenditure, especially for young, single people. Using a database compiled from surviving returns to the Ministry of Labour's national 1937/8 working-class expenditure survey, we examine leisure participation rates for over 600 households, using a detailed set of commercial leisure activities together with other relevant variables. We find that the employment status of family members other than the male breadwinner was a key factor influencing their access to commercial leisure. Our analysis thus supports the view that the breadwinner–homemaker household was characterized by strong power imbalances that concentrated resources—especially for individualized expenditures—in the hands of those family members who engaged in paid labour.

Home in British working-class fiction

Offering new readings of working-class writing that focus on the home as a key emotional and material site in writing by working-class authors from the Edwardian period through to the mid-1990s. With close readings of The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists, works by D. H. Lawrence, Ethel Carnie Holdsworth, Ellen Wilkinson, Lewis Grassic Gibbon, Walter Brierley, Alan Sillitoe, John Braine, Nell Dunn, Sam Selvon, Sid Chaplin, Buchi Emecheta, Pat Barker, Jeanette Winterson, James Kelman and many others. The book demonstrates the importance of ideas of home and its narrative representation to the making and expression of class feeling and identity.

The United States in Southern Africa: Chester Crocker's linkage strategy 1981-1988

Chester Crocker was appointed as Reagan's Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in 1981. He had criticised the inconsistencies of US African policy and proposed a renewed emphasis on the balance between America's global interests with specific regional priorities. While the focus of Congressmen, journalists and public opinion centred on the issue of apartheid, it was the Namibian War of Independence (South African Border War) that initially drew the attention of the Reagan administration, and it was the resolution of this war that remained the priority for the US government in this region throughout Crocker's time in office.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Racial Conflict in the United States of America : A Deconstructive Perspective on Native Speaker by Changrae Lee

Written about the time of the Golden Venture incident, Chang-rae Lee’s Native Speaker makes a particular reference to that incident, whereby implying that particular immigrants, on the grounds of their racial identities, are mistreated and considered as aliens by some Americas. While some whites discriminate against immigrants, there is widespread ethnic tension between Korean Americans and African Americans. Significantly, racial conflict between Koreans and blacks and the racist attitude of some whites toward immigrants are mirrored in the relationship between the Korean-American protagonist Henry and his American wife Lelia. That is, due to their different racial identities they do not understand each other and they always argue. However, toward the end of the novel, Henry and Lelia come to understand each other. While ethnic conflict between Koreans and blacks and certain whites’ discriminatory attitudes toward immigrants is serious one, the novel suggests the unimportance of racial identity. In other words, the novel concludes that there is no discriminatory treatment of immigrants and, in fact, every one is a native Speaker in America. In the novel there is no message of how racial conflict could be resolved. However, this essay suggests that by investigating how the tension between Henry and Lelia is resolved, one could suggest a solution for the ethnicity problem in America and in real life.

Youth alcohol and other drug use in the United States and Australia: a cross-national comparison of three state-wide samples

Although youth drug and alcohol harm minimization policies in Australia are often contrasted with the abstinence and zero tolerance policies adopted in the United States, there has been little research directly comparing youth substance use behaviour in the two countries. Three state representative samples in Victoria, Australia (n = 7898) and in the US states of Oregon (n = 15 224) and Maine (n = 16 245) completed a common cross-sectional student survey. Rates of alcohol use (lifetime alcohol use, recent use in the past 30 days), alcohol use exceeding recommended consumption limits (binge drinking: five or more drinks in a session), other licit drug use (tobacco use), and norm-violating substance use (substance use at school, use in the past 30 days of marijuana or other illicit drug use) were compared for males and females at ages 12-17. Rates were lower (odds ratios 0.5-0.8) for youth in Maine and Oregon compared to Victoria for lifetime and recent alcohol use, binge drinking and daily cigarette smoking. However, rates of recent marijuana use and recent use of other illicit drugs were higher in Maine and Oregon, as were reports of being drunk or high at school. In contradiction of harm minimization objectives, Victoria, relative to the US states of Oregon and Maine, demonstrated higher rates of alcohol use exceeding recommended consumption limits and daily tobacco use. However, findings suggested that aspects of norm-violating substance use (substance use at school, marijuana use and other illicit drug use) were higher in the US states compared to Victoria.

Digital TV in Australia and the USA: a cross-impact analysis of the adoption and diffusion of digital TV in Australia and the United States

The paper examines the adoption and diffusion of Digital Television (DTV) in Australia and the United States, identifying historical, technical, regulatory, marketing, and other commonalities and differences that appear to be most significant to its adoption, as both countries have experienced a 'sluggish' diffusion and adoption of DTV so far. Using library research and borrowing the cross-impact matrix method from futures research, the authors develop J J events related to the various influences and groups of stakeholders that had shaped the policy making and adoption of DTV. We then carry out a comparative analysis between the two countries to make evident their impacts, strengths, and directions of influence. The authors suggest that the implementation of DTV in these two developed countries appears to be nearly identical. Even though Australian and US broadcasting models are fundamentally different, the diffusion process for DTV is primarily affected by the nature of digital technology and globalisation, two trends that may be diminishing the import of the nation-state in the technology adoption process. The paper concludes that these broader economic and technical events may have greater import to DTV's successful diffusion than do traditional, cultural, and nationalistic factors suggested in earlier comparative broadcast studies.

Evaluating a measure of content quality for accounting narratives (with an empirical application to narratives from Australia, Hong Kong, and the United States)

This paper evaluates a texture-based approach developed by Sydserff and Weetman (1999), to examine corporate annual report narratives. This is achieved by using the texture index to evaluate information content (which includes readability) in accounting narratives. Specifically, we examine the letter to shareholders of reports from Australia, Hong Kong and the United States.

We suggest a texture-based evaluation provides a robust measure of narrative quality due to the incorporation of readability and content analysis. The ability to measure content quality assists in promoting accountability, with the aim of improving usefulness of corporate
information and disclosures, and greater investor confidence in capital markets.

This paper also investigates these exploratory results to consider variations in quality between different countries. Considerable differences were found between the countries with Hong Kong reports generally superior. These tentative findings provide a small contribution to the comparative annual report literature and the emerging area of narrative evaluation.